Covid 19 Spread

1
By: M. Ali Amin
COVID 19 SPREAD
I have collected, the following data from the website

https://www.coronatracker.com/country/pakistan/
For the number of coronavirus patients for the past 14 days that is from 22 nd of
May 2020 to June 4 2020.
DAYS NO. OF PATIENTS

1 50694
2 52437
3 54601
4 56349
5 57705
6 59151
7 61227
8 64028
9 66457
10 69496
11 72460
12 72460
13 80463
14 85264
Now, I have written a program in MATLAB 2020A, which uses the exponential
growth model for predicting the number of covid19 patients in the coming days.
2
I have used the above data, for finding the model. If, I am wrong then please
forgive me. As to err is human. Everyone should try.
Thanks
Therefore, here is the program
clc;
clear all;
close all;
format long;
% Define the symbolic variable rate r for the spread of covid 19 virus.
syms r;
% Enter the data of covid-19 confirmed cases for the last 14-days as a
vector ..
covid1914daysdata = input('Enter the last 14 days data as a vector\n

covid1914daysdata = ');
% Enter the no. of covid 19 patients on day1 which is May 22nd 2020
noofcovid19day1 = input('Enter the number of covid19 patients on day1 \n

noofcovid19day1 = ');
% Enter the no. of covid 19 patients on day14 which is 4th june 2020
noofcovid19day14 = input('Enter the number of covid19 patients on day 14 \n

noofcovid19day14 = ');
% Enter the day until you have collected the data which is day 14
t = input('Enter the count of the last day for which you have collected the
covid 19 patients\n t = ');
% Form the Equation...
eqn = noofcovid19day14 == noofcovid19day1 * exp(r*t);
% Solve the equation for rate r

3
rate = solve(eqn,r);
Rate = double(subs(rate))
% WE SHALL GET THE FOLLOWING MODEL WE GET IS THE FOLLOWING which will give us
the no. of covid 19 patients at a particular day...
% ENTER THE TIME AS A VECTOR.
time = input('Enter the time as a vector starting from 0 as day 1 \n time =

');
noofcovid = noofcovid19day1 * exp(Rate * time); % Required Model
%DISPLAY THE outputs
for i = 1: length(covid1914daysdata)
fprintf("\n\n You entered covid 19 patients on day %d is %f\n\n", i,

covid1914daysdata(i))
end
fprintf("\n\n\n")
for i = 1: length(noofcovid)
fprintf("The Number of covid 19 patients by using the model on day %d is

%f\n\n", time(i), noofcovid(i));
end
plot(time, noofcovid)
title('\bf Number of COVID 19 patients')
xlabel('Time which is number of days')

4
Run the program as follows and get the desired result.
Enter the last 14 days data as a vector

covid1914daysdata = [50694 52437 524601 56349 57705 59151 61227 64028
66457 69496 72460 72460 80463 85264]
Enter the number of covid19 patients on day1
noofcovid19day1 = 50694
Enter the number of covid19 patients on day 14
noofcovid19day14 = 85264
Enter the count of the last day for which you have collected the covid 19
patients
t = 14
Rate =
0.037138911796833
Enter the time as a vector starting from 0 as day 1

time = 0:1:99
You entered covid 19 patients on day 1 is 50694.000000

5

6

7
The Number of covid 19 patients by using the model on day 0 is 50694.000000

8

9

10

11

12

13
The Number of covid 19 patients by using the model on day 81 is

1026653.144162
14

1065498.802592

1105814.271140

1147655.163274

1191079.196718

1236146.273074

1282918.560449

1331460.579217

1381839.291022

1434124.191146
15

1488387.404376

1544703.784500

1603151.017559

1663809.729018

1726763.594979

1792099.457613

1859907.444954

1930281.095226

2003317.485876
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The program also gives the following plot.

17
106 Number of COVID 19 patients

2
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
0.8
0.6
0.4
X0
0.2
Y 50690
0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Time which is number of days

Covid 19 Spread

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Covid 19 Spread

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1

By: M. Ali Amin

I have collected, the following data from the website

DAYS NO. OF PATIENTS

Therefore, here is the program

covid1914daysdata = input('Enter the last 14 days data as a vector\n

noofcovid19day1 = input('Enter the number of covid19 patients on day1 \n

noofcovid19day14 = input('Enter the number of covid19 patients on day 14 \n

% Form the Equation...

eqn = noofcovid19day14 == noofcovid19day1 * exp(r*t);

% Solve the equation for rate r

% ENTER THE TIME AS A VECTOR.

time = input('Enter the time as a vector starting from 0 as day 1 \n time =

noofcovid = noofcovid19day1 * exp(Rate * time); % Required Model

%DISPLAY THE outputs

fprintf("\n\n You entered covid 19 patients on day %d is %f\n\n", i,

fprintf("The Number of covid 19 patients by using the model on day %d is

title('\bf Number of COVID 19 patients')

xlabel('Time which is number of days')

Run the program as follows and get the desired result.

Enter the last 14 days data as a vector

Enter the time as a vector starting from 0 as day 1

You entered covid 19 patients on day 1 is 50694.000000

You entered covid 19 patients on day 2 is 52437.000000

You entered covid 19 patients on day 3 is 524601.000000

You entered covid 19 patients on day 4 is 56349.000000

You entered covid 19 patients on day 5 is 57705.000000

You entered covid 19 patients on day 6 is 59151.000000

You entered covid 19 patients on day 7 is 61227.000000

You entered covid 19 patients on day 8 is 64028.000000

You entered covid 19 patients on day 9 is 66457.000000

You entered covid 19 patients on day 10 is 69496.000000

You entered covid 19 patients on day 11 is 72460.000000

You entered covid 19 patients on day 12 is 72460.000000

You entered covid 19 patients on day 13 is 80463.000000

You entered covid 19 patients on day 14 is 85264.000000

The Number of covid 19 patients by using the model on day 0 is 50694.000000

The Number of covid 19 patients by using the model on day 1 is 52612.117935

The Number of covid 19 patients by using the model on day 2 is 54602.812040

The Number of covid 19 patients by using the model on day 3 is 56668.828394

The Number of covid 19 patients by using the model on day 4 is 58813.016978

The Number of covid 19 patients by using the model on day 5 is 61038.335609

The Number of covid 19 patients by using the model on day 6 is 63347.854018

The Number of covid 19 patients by using the model on day 7 is 65744.758088

The Number of covid 19 patients by using the model on day 8 is 68232.354245

The Number of covid 19 patients by using the model on day 9 is 70814.074022

The Number of covid 19 patients by using the model on day 10 is 73493.478792

The Number of covid 19 patients by using the model on day 11 is 76274.264679

The Number of covid 19 patients by using the model on day 12 is 79160.267658

The Number of covid 19 patients by using the model on day 13 is 82155.468848

The Number of covid 19 patients by using the model on day 14 is 85264.000000

The Number of covid 19 patients by using the model on day 15 is 88490.149201

The Number of covid 19 patients by using the model on day 16 is 91838.366785

The Number of covid 19 patients by using the model on day 17 is 95313.271476

The Number of covid 19 patients by using the model on day 18 is 98919.656757

The Number of covid 19 patients by using the model on day 19 is 102662.497482

The Number of covid 19 patients by using the model on day 20 is 106546.956740

The Number of covid 19 patients by using the model on day 21 is 110578.392977

The Number of covid 19 patients by using the model on day 22 is 114762.367387

The Number of covid 19 patients by using the model on day 23 is 119104.651585

The Number of covid 19 patients by using the model on day 24 is 123611.235565

The Number of covid 19 patients by using the model on day 25 is 128288.335969

The Number of covid 19 patients by using the model on day 26 is 133142.404656