Stock Market Indicators:

Bull/Bear Ratios
Yardeni Research, Inc.

June 17, 2020

Dr. Edward Yardeni

516-972-7683
eyardeni@yardeni.com

Joe Abbott
732-497-5306
jabbott@yardeni.com

Debbie Johnson
480-664-1333
djohnson@yardeni.com

Please visit our sites at

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Table Of Contents Table Of Contents
Bulls & Bears 1
Bull/Bear Ratio Over 3.0 2
Bull/Bear Ratio Under 1.0 3
Bull/Bear Ratio Under 1.0 & Over 3.0 4
AAII Sentiment 5
Bull & Bears 6-9

June 17, 2020 / Stock Market Indicators: Bull/Bear Ratios Yardeni Research, Inc.
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 Bulls & Bears
Figure 1.
6 6
INVESTORS INTELLIGENCE BULLS & BEARS

5 5
Ratio Ratio
Bull/Bear Jun 2 2.26
Ratio* Jun 9 2.76
4 Jun 16 2.95 4

3 6/16 3

2 2

1 1

0 0
87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22

80 80
Percentage Bulls Bears
Jun 2 53.5 23.7
70 Bulls Jun 9 56.9 20.6 70
Bears Jun 16 54.9 18.6
60 60
6/16
50 50

40 40

30 30

20 20

10 10
87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22

50 50

45 Percentage Correction 45
Correction Jun 2 22.8
40 Jun 9 22.5 40
Jun 16 26.5
35 35

30 30
6/16
25 25

20 20

15 15

10 10
yardeni.com
5 5
87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
Source: Investors Intelligence.

Page 1 / June 17, 2020 / Stock Market Indicators: Bull/Bear Ratios Yardeni Research, Inc.
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 Bull/Bear Ratio Over 3.0
Figure 2.
3800 3800
3400 3400
3000 S&P 500 INDEX vs. BULL/BEAR RATIO OF 6/16 3000
2600
3.0 OR MORE* 2600
(ratio scale)
2200 2200

1800 1800

1400 1400

yardeni.com
1000 1000

600 600

200 200
87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21

* Red shaded areas indicate Bull/Bear Ratio equal to or greater than 3.0.
Source: Standard & Poor’s and Investors Intelligence.

Figure 3.
31600 31600
26600 DOW JONES INDEX vs. BULL/BEAR RATIO OF 6/16 26600

21600 3.0 OR MORE* 21600

(ratio scale)
16600 16600

11600 11600

yardeni.com

6600 6600

1600 1600
87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21

* Red shaded areas indicates Bull/Bear Ratio equal to or greater than 3.0.
Source: Wall Street Journal and Investors Intelligence.

Page 2 / June 17, 2020 / Stock Market Indicators: Bull/Bear Ratios Yardeni Research, Inc.
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 Bull/Bear Ratio Under 1.0
Figure 4.
3800 3800
3400 3400
6/16
3000 S&P 500 INDEX vs BULL/BEAR RATIO 3000
2600 OF 1.0 OR LESS* 2600
(ratio scale)
2200 2200

1800 1800

1400 1400

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1000 1000

600 600

200 200
87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22

* Green shaded areas indicate Bull/Bear Ratio equal to or less than 1.0.
Source: Standard & Poor’s and Investors Intelligence.

Figure 5.
31600 31600
26600 6/16 26600
DOW JONES INDEX vs. BULL/BEAR RATIO
21600 OF 1.0 OR LESS* 21600
(ratio scale)
16600 16600

11600 11600

yardeni.com

6600 6600

1600 1600
87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22

* Green shaded areas indicates Bull/Bear Ratio equal to or less than 1.0.
Source: Wall Street Journal and Investors Intelligence.

Page 3 / June 17, 2020 / Stock Market Indicators: Bull/Bear Ratios Yardeni Research, Inc.
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 Bull/Bear Ratio Under 1.0 & Over 3.0
Figure 6.
40 40
S&P 500 % FROM 200-DMA
vs.
BULL/BEAR RATIO OF 3.0 OR MORE*

20 20

yardeni.com
6/16
0 0

-20 -20

-40 -40
87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23

* Red shaded areas indicates Bull/Bear Ratio equal to or more than 3.0.
Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.

Figure 7.
40 40
S&P 500 % FROM 200-DMA
vs.
BULL/BEAR RATIO OF 1.0 OR LESS*

20 20

yardeni.com
6/16
0 0

-20 -20

-40 -40
87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23

* Green shaded areas indicates Bull/Bear Ratio equal to or less than 1.0.
Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.

Page 4 / June 17, 2020 / Stock Market Indicators: Bull/Bear Ratios Yardeni Research, Inc.
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 AAII Sentiment
Figure 8.
100 100
AAII SENTIMENT INDEX FOR STOCKS

AAII Bull Ratio*

75 75

50 50
6/10

25 25

0 0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

5 5

4 4

AAII Bull/Bear Ratio

3 3

2 2

1 6/10 1

0 0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

80 80

70
Bulls 70
Bears
60 60

50 50

40 40
6/10
30 30

20 20
Latest Readings
Bulls Bears
10 Jun 3 34.6 38.9 10
Jun 10 34.3 38.1
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0 0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
* AAII Bull Ratio is the percent of bulls over the percent of bulls plus percent of bears.
Source: American Association of Individual Investors (AAII).

Page 5 / June 17, 2020 / Stock Market Indicators: Bull/Bear Ratios Yardeni Research, Inc.
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 Bull & Bears
Figure 9.
5.5 140
BULL/BEAR RATIO & CONSUMER CONFIDENCE
5.0
Bull/Bear Ratio
4.5 (4-week average) 120

4.0 Consumer Confidence

Expectations Index 100
3.5 May

3.0
80
2.5 6/16

2.0
60
1.5

1.0 40

.5

yardeni.com
.0 20
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Source: New York Board of Trade, Commodity Futures Trading Commission, and the Conference Board.

Figure 10.
6 30
S&P 500 FORWARD P/E & INVESTORS INTELLIGENCE BULL/BEAR RATIO

S&P 500 Forward P/E* (21.2)

5
Investors Intelligence 25
Bull/Bear Ratio (3.0)

4
6/12
20

3 6/16

15

10
1

yardeni.com
0 5
88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21

* Average weekly price divided by 52-week forward consensus expected operating earnings per share. Monthly through April 1994, then weekly.
Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation, I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv, and Investors Intelligence.

Page 6 / June 17, 2020 / Stock Market Indicators: Bull/Bear Ratios Yardeni Research, Inc.
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 Bull & Bears
Figure 11.
5.5 5.5
INVESTORS INTELLIGENCE BULLS & BEARS
5.0 5.0

4.5 4.5
Bull/Bear Ratio
4.0 4.0

3.5 3.5

3.0 6/16 3.0

6/16
2.5 2.5

2.0 2.0

1.5 1.5

1.0 1.0

.5 .5
52-week moving average (2.6)
yardeni.com
.0 .0
87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22

Source: Investors Intelligence.

Figure 12.
90 90
INVESTORS INTELLIGENCE BULLS + CORRECTION CAMP
(percent)

80 80
6/16

70 70

60 60

50 52-week moving average (79.1) 50

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40 40
88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22

Source: Investors Intelligence.

Page 7 / June 17, 2020 / Stock Market Indicators: Bull/Bear Ratios Yardeni Research, Inc.
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 Bull & Bears
Figure 13.
70 70
INVESTORS INTELLIGENCE BEARS
(percent)

60 60

50 50

40 40

30 30

20 6/16 20
52-week moving average (20.9)

yardeni.com
10 10
88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22

Source: Investors Intelligence.

Figure 14.
8 8
INVESTORS INTELLIGENCE (BULLS + CORRECTION) / BEARS

6 6
52-week moving average (4.1)

4 6/16 4

2 2

yardeni.com
0 0
88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22

Source: Investors Intelligence.

Page 8 / June 17, 2020 / Stock Market Indicators: Bull/Bear Ratios Yardeni Research, Inc.
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 Bull & Bears
Figure 15.
70 70
INVESTORS INTELLIGENCE SENTIMENT INDEX FOR STOCKS: BULLS

60 60

50 6/16 50

40 40

30 30
52-week moving average (50.5)

yardeni.com
20 20
88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22

Source: Investors Intelligence

Figure 16.
200 200
INVESTORS INTELLIGENCE SENTIMENT INDEX FOR STOCKS: BEARS + CORRECTION

150 150

100 100
6/16

52-week moving average (91.3)

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50 50
87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22

Source: Investors Intelligence

Page 9 / June 17, 2020 / Stock Market Indicators: Bull/Bear Ratios Yardeni Research, Inc.
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