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and Urbanization Asia

Flood Risk in Asia's Urban Mega-deltas : Drivers, Impacts and Response

Faith Ka Shun Chan, Gordon Mitchell, Olalekan Adekola and Adrian McDonald
Environment and Urbanization Asia 2012 3: 41
DOI: 10.1177/097542531200300103

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Article

Flood Risk in Asia’s Environment and Urbanization ASIA

3(1) 41–61
Urban Mega-deltas © 2012 National Institute
of Urban Affairs (NIUA)
SAGE Publications
Drivers, Impacts and Response Los Angeles, London,
New Delhi, Singapore,
Washington DC
DOI: 10.1177/097542531200300103
http://eua.sagepub.com
Faith Ka Shun Chan, Gordon Mitchell,
Olalekan Adekola and Adrian McDonald

Abstract
Asia’s urbanized mega-deltas are experiencing increased incidences of flooding. Flood risk is increasing
due to urban growth, which makes people more vulnerable and threatens economic assets, and due
to factors that increase flood hazard, including reduced delta aggradation, subsidence though natural
resource extraction, and climate change, including extreme weather events, such as typhoons, and
sea level rise. The recent history of flooding in Asia’s deltaic cities and the drivers of that risk have
been examined in this article. We give particular attention to the Pearl River Delta, and its cities of
Guangzhou, Hong Kong and Shenzhen, important economic centres of Asia. The flood risk is substan-
tial, but flood risk management appear to suffer through a lack of sufficient strategic planning, and the
difficulty of defending deltaic cities through traditional engineering approaches alone. Drawing on less-
ons from flood risk management internationally, we suggest that there are ways forward in developing
flood mitigation strategies for deltaic cities in the region, which deserve further exploration.

Keywords
Flood risk, mega-deltas, climate change, Pearl River Delta, urbanization

Introduction
Deltas develop through the accumulation of sediments near river mouths. Being located on the coast they
are subject to sea-level change, wave, tidal and fluvial influences (Syvitski & Saito, 2007). Most delta
plains occupy flat low-lying floodplains, and are generally rich in organic carbon making an attractive
agricultural environment (Woodroffe, 2010). Deltas are also important and sensitive ecosystems, provid-
ing wetland, marsh and swamp habitat with rich biodiversity (Paola et al., 2011). Very large deltas, often
known as mega-deltas (such as the Ganges–Brahmaputra with an area of some 105,641 km2) are low-
lying sedimentary landforms at river mouths, usually with large populations (Sultana, 2010). People
were initially attracted to mega-deltas by the high agricultural productivity of their coastal zone sedi-
ments that support diverse often high quality, high yield crops such as the rice crops of the Mekong Delta
(Wassmann et al., 2004). This, together with the connection between river and ocean traffic, means that
mega-deltas have often developed important port cities.

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42 Faith Ka Shun Chan, Gordon Mitchell, Olalekan Adekola and Adrian McDonald

Asia’s mega-deltas have in recent years been impacted by major floods that have caused severe human
hardship (Le et al., 2007), and most recently, major floods have occurred in Bangladesh (2004, Ganges–
Brahmaputra delta), Burma (2007, Irrawaddy deltas), Hong Kong (2008, Pearl River delta), and Thailand
(2011, Chao Phraya delta) bringing further loss of life, and major damage to property and infrastructure.
Such incidences are thought likely to continue as climate change brings more frequent and intense
typhoons and rainstorms (Webster et al., 2005), and induces sea level rise (Nicholls, 2011). As flood
hazard becomes greater, so does the threat to the livelihoods and well-being of millions of deltaic resi-
dents. Hence, there is a need to proactively manage the flood risk in Asia’s mega-deltas.
To promote sustainable flood risk management in these deltas, it is necessary to first identify the
drivers and consequences of flooding. Le et al. (2007), Syvitski (2008), Chan et al. (2010) and Gu et al.
(2011), have explored the impacts of flood in specific mega deltas, but empirical information on drivers
of flooding and their consequences on a regional scale is scarce. Below, we describe the geographical
context of Asian mega-delta and coastal mega-cities, and, drawing on peer-reviewed and grey literature,
review what is known of the drivers and consequences of flooding in Asia’s urbanized mega-deltas. We
examine more closely one particular case, the Pearl River Delta, to illustrate how current flood risk prob-
lems and management challenges are, before considering possible solutions to mitigate flood risk,
through a reflection on flood risk management approaches being adopted elsewhere.

Asian Mega-deltas and Coastal Mega-cities

Table 1 presents a range of physical descriptors for the Asian mega-deltas, which comprise the Ganges–
Brahmaputra Delta (India and Bangladesh); the Irrawaddy Delta (Myanmar), the Chao Phraya Delta
(Thailand), the Mekong Delta and Red River Deltas (Vietnam), and the Pearl River, Yangtze and Yellow
River Deltas in China (Figure 1). Most of Asia’s coastal mega-cities (those with a population in excess
of 8 million people) are located in these deltas (Nicholls, 1995; Yeung, 2001), and Table 1 reveals that
collectively they are home to some 354 million people. The Ganges–Brahmaputra delta is the most popu-
lous with 150 million people resident in its cities, followed by the Yangtze and Pearl River deltas with
75 million and 40 million respectively.
Those deltas with lower densities, such as the Irrawaddy delta in southern Myanmar (383 persons
per km2) (Syvitski, 2008), and the Mekong delta in southern Vietnam (353 persons per km2) reflect the
continuing importance of agriculture, particularly for the rice production, with the Mekong delta respon-
sible for over half of Vietnam’s rice crop. Higher densities are indicative of industrialization and urban-
ization. The Pearl River delta is the most densely populated with more than 7,500 persons per km2
(Syvitski & Saito, 2007), followed by the Chao Phraya delta (2,940 persons per km2) and Yangtze River
delta (2,154 persons per km2) (Huang et al., 2009). The Asian mega-deltas often hold a significant share
of national population; for instance the Red River delta has more than 18 million people, about 22 per
cent of Vietnam’s total population, in only 4 per cent of its land area. Such high population densities are
indicative of a high share of national economic and industrial development. For example, Hanoi in the
Red River delta is an important port city, and financial and industrial hub, with more than 20 per cent of
the country’s industrial output (mostly export from garments and textiles, valued at US $7,784 million in
2007 (Vind & Fold, 2010). Similarly, the Pearl River and Yangtze deltas are densely populated and

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 Table 1. Geographical Characteristics and Flood Hazards of Asian Mega-deltas
Risk of Coastal Major Flood
Population Projected Sinking Mega-cities Incidents and
Location Total Delta Percentage Density Population (Area within Vulnerable Damage in
and Standing Type of Area Population of Country (Persons/ by 20253 2m of Mean to Flood the Last
Delta Country Water Body Delta1,2 (km2) (Millions) Population km2) (Millions) Sea-level km2)4 Risk5 10 Years
1. Ganges– India, Bay of Tidally- 105,641 1506 11 (India and 1420 290 6170 Dhaka, 2007 flood,
Brahmaputra Bangladesh Bengal dominated Bangladesh Kolkata, 500 deaths
populations Khulna and 400,000
City Indicators on Climate Change

combined) people were

relocated14
2. Irrawaddy Myanmar Andaman Tropical, 20,600 7.97 13.18 383 12.1 1100 Yangon 2007 flood,
Sea tidal (delta 146,000
periphery) deaths15
3. Chao Thailand Gulf of Tidally- 5500 16.29 24 2945 21.2 1780 Bangkok 2011 flood,
Phraya Thailand dominated US$4 billion
lost16
4. Mekong Vietnam South Tidally- 39,700 17.310 21 353 30.3 20,900 Ho Chi 2006 flood,
China Sea dominated Minh City 55 deaths (50
deaths were
children)17
5. Red River Vietnam Gulf of Tropical 11,400 18 22 1579 25.2 No Hai Phòng No data
Tonkin data
6. Pearl River China South Tidally- 800011 6011 4.6 7500 90 3720 Guangzhou, 2010 flood, 3
China Sea dominated Hong Kong deaths18

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and Shenzhen
7. Yangzte China East China Tidally- 35,000 75.412 6 2154 113 7080 Shanghai, 2010 flood,
River Sea dominated Ningbo 100 deaths in
the basin19
8. Yellow China East China Tidally- 36,27213 9.85 0.08 271.6 14 3420 Qingdao No data
River Sea dominated (delta
periphery)
Sources: Adapted from (Hanson et al., 2011; Seto, 2011)
1. Syvitski and Saito (2007); 2. Syvitski (2008); 3. UN-HABITAT (2008); 4. Syvitski et al. (2009); 5. Nicholls R. J. et al. (2008); 6. Nicholls and Goodbred (2004); 7. Scott (1989);
8. ADB (2011); 9. Royal Irrigation Department (2009); 10. Vietnam General Statistics Office (2006); 11. Zhou and Cai (2010); 12. Huang et al. (2009); 13. Wang et al. (2011); 14 Jian
et al. (2009); 15. Webster (2008); 16. BBC (2011); 17. MRC (2007), 18 Chan et al. (2010); 19. China Daily (2011).
43
44 Faith Ka Shun Chan, Gordon Mitchell, Olalekan Adekola and Adrian McDonald

industrialized with manufacturing of electronics, automobiles, textiles, garments and appliances (Seto,
2011). Long et al. (2009) indicate that these industries are labour intensive and the attendant jobs have
driven urban growth, mainly through attracting rural migrants from outside the deltas.
National economic policy has been significant in the rapid urbanization of Asia’s coastal cities.
Yeung (2001) describes how China’s 1979 ‘open door policy’ transformed its coastal cities from pre-
dominantly agrarian to manufacturing economies, catalysed by special economic zones (SEZ) status and
a conferred reduction on economic constraints. These reforms were successful in attracting overseas
investment, and promoting international trade (Shanghai, Hong Kong, Shenzhen, Ningbo, Guangzhou
and Qingdao are today all ranked in the world’s top 10 busiest container seaports (Yeo et al., 2011). As a
result, a large labour force was required to support the rapid industrialization. Migrants from rural China,
attracted by job opportunities, drove the expansion of cities which grew rapidly; for example, the
Shenzhen SEZ grew from about 0.33 million people in 1979, to more than seven million in 2010 (Vogel
et al., 2010). Similar economic policies have been adopted in Vietnam’s Mekong and Red River deltas,
and by the Burmese government with respect to Yangon in the Irrawaddy delta, with similar consequence
for rural out migration and rapid urbanization of the region’s deltaic cities (Seto, 2011).

Flooding and Drivers of Flood Risk in Asian Mega-deltas

Flooding in Asia’s Deltaic Mega-cities
Flooding has become the most frequently occurring natural hazard in many countries (Adger, 2006), and
is the principal natural hazard facing most delta communities. Mega-deltas, characterized as low lying
coastal landforms associated with large rivers are vulnerable to riverine flooding driven by upstream
rainfall and river discharge, and marine tides and surge, with the interaction of these processes occasion-
ally amplifying flood risk. Whilst flooding is a natural process with benefits such as enhancement of soil
fertility, its adverse consequences can be severe. There were 2,893 flood events from 1985 to 2009 in 108
countries that caused more than 175,000 deaths and more than 2,677 million people were affected from
flooding (Ferreira et al., 2011).
In recent years devastating floods have occurred across Asian delta cities. Along the coastal area of
Bangladesh, in the Ganges–Brahmaputra Delta, cyclonic storm surges in 1970 and 1991 led to an esti-
mated death toll of 300,000 and 138,000 respectively (Karim and Mimura, 2008). During the 1998
Bangladesh flood, more than 70 per cent of the delta land area was inundated by the sea and 1,000 people
in the delta died as a result (Kundzewicz et al., 2007). Cyclone Nargis in 2008 caused severe coastal
flooding through storm surges that raised the sea level by four metres along the southern Myanmar coast,
inundating more than 50 km2 of settled land in the Irrawaddy delta, with the loss of an estimated 130,000–
146,000 lives, and economic damage in excess of US $17 billion (Fuchs et al., 2011; Syvitski et al.,
2009). In 2011, monsoon rains from August to October flooded northern and central parts of Thailand,
with consequent flooding of the Chao Phraya River at its mouth in Bangkok. This flood caused 340
deaths and a direct economic loss of more than 100 billion baht (US$4 billion). The main manufacturing
centre of the region, responsible for nearly 50 per cent of Thailand’s GDP, was badly hit, and is expected
to take three to six months to recover (BBC, 2011).

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Flood Risk in Asia’s Urban Mega-deltas 45

Clearly Asian delta cities face significant flood risk, defined as the probability of harm (e.g. death,
damage to infrastructure or economic assets) occurring in response to a hazard that generates a flood
(Merz et al., 2010). Mega-deltas are at particularly high flood risk due to continuing urbanization which
exposes greater numbers of people to flood hazards, and factors of land subsidence and climate change,
which increase the intrinsic flood hazard. These factors are discussed further below.

Continuing Urbanization
Mega-deltas have large populations and nationally important economies and economic assets, all vulner-
able to flood hazard (Table 1). These populations and associated economic assets continue to grow,
exposing a greater number of vulnerable people and assets to flood hazard. For example, Yangon the
largest city in Myanmar and located on the periphery of the Irrawaddy delta grew by at least 22 per cent
every decade since the 1960s (United Nations, 2010). In 1950, the population of the Ganges–Brahmaputra
delta was about 4.9 million; in 2010 it was 31 million with mega-cities of Dhaka–Khulna (16.4 million)
and Kolkata (15.1 million) (United Nations, 2010). Dhaka is growing at about 4 per cent per annum, one
of the highest rates amongst Asian cities (Rabbani et al., 2011), with UN-HABITAT (2008) predicting
the population of the Ganges–Brahmaputra delta cities (Dhaka, Kolkata and Khulna) will reach 290 mil-
lion by 2025. Fuju et al. (2011) predict that high technology industry and tourism will drive population
of the Yellow River delta (main city Qingdao, China) up to 14 million people by 2025, an increase of
40 per cent from its current population. Such rates of growth are typical of Asian deltaic cities, but have
profound implications for flood risk as, all else being equal, flood risk grows as the number of people
and economic assets in flood hazard areas increases (Balica & Wright, 2010). Table 2 details coastal
mega-cities in the Asian region and their position in a global ranking of cities at flood risk by 2070.
Based on population exposure, eight of the top 10 at risk cities globally are megacities in Asian deltas.

Elevated Flood Hazard: Climate Change

Deltaic regions experience a high incidence of particular flood hazards such as cyclones (typhoons),
hurricanes, intensive rainstorms, and storm surges, events that are reportedly more prevalent in deltas
than in other landforms (Ericson et al., 2006). The frequency of such events is emphasized by Chan and
Lee (2010) who noted that the Hong Kong Observatory recorded 39 typhoons for the Pearl River Delta
(PRD) in two years alone. Storm surges are often associated with these extreme weather events, with
rapid changes in atmospheric pressure and associated winds raising sea levels two to three metres above
normal (Meehl et al., 2007).
Climate change is exacerbating such deltaic flood risk in two key ways. First, mean sea level is rising,
making extreme events such as storm surges more hazardous. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC) projects a global sea-level rise of 0.18 to 0.59 metres by 2100 (IPCC, 2007), with others
predicting substantially higher increases dependent upon events such as melting of polar ice-sheets
(Rohling et al., 2008; Vermeer & Rahmstorf, 2009). Second, climate change is generally agreed to have
increased the frequency, intensity and magnitude of extreme weather events over the last few decades,

Environment and Urbanization ASIA, 3, 1 (2012): 41–61

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 46

Table 2. Selected Asian Coastal Megacities Ranked top 40 Globally in 136 Port Cities in Terms of Population and Economic Assets Exposed to
Coastal Flood Risk at Present and in the 2070s (the ranking of megacities in the PRD in bold)

Future (in Rank in Current Future Rank in

Current the 2070s) Exposed Exposed Exposed Exposed
Population Population Population Assets Assets Assets
Exposed on Exposed on (in the (US$ (US$ (in the
Coastal Megacities Country Located on the Deltas (yes/no) Flood Risk Flood Risk 2070s) billions) billions) 2070s)
Kolkata (Calcutta) India Yes, Ganges–Brahmaputra 1,929,000 14,014,000 1 31.99 1961.44 4
Mumbai India No 2,787,000 11,418,000 2 46.20 1598.05 6
Dhaka Bangladesh Yes, Ganges–Brahmaputra 844,000 11,135,000 3 8.43 544.00 21
Guangzhou China Yes, Pearl River Delta 2,718,000 10,333,000 4 84.17 3357.72 2
Ho Chi Minh City Vietnam Yes, Mekong Delta 1,931,000 9,216,000 5 26.86 652.82 16
Shanghai China Yes, Yangtze River Delta 2,353,000 5,451,000 6 72.86 1771.7 5
Bangkok Thailand Yes, Chao Phraya Delta 907,000 5,138,000 7 38.72 1117.54 10
Yangon Myanmar Yes, Irrawaddy Delta 510,000 4,965,000 8 3.62 172.02 39
Hai Phòng Vietnam Yes, Red River Delta 794,000 4,711,000 10 11.04 333.70 26
Tianjin China No 956,000 3,790,000 12 29.62 1231.48 7
Khulna Bangladesh Yes, Ganges–Brahmaputra 441,000 3,641,000 13 4.41 177.86 38
Ningbo China Yes, Yangtze River Delta 299,000 3,305,000 14 9.26 1073.93 11
Shenzhen China Yes, Pearl River Delta 701,000 749,000 18 21.7 243.29 31
Tokyo Japan No 1,110,000 2,521,000 19 174.29 1207.07 8

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Jakarta Indonesia No 513,000 2,248,000 20 10.11 321.24 27
Osaka-Kobe Japan No 1,373,000 2,023,000 21 215.62 968.96 13
Qingdao China Yes, Yellow River Delta 88,000 1,851,000 23 2.72 601.59 18
Nagoya Japan No 696,000 1,302,000 27 109.22 623.42 17
Hong Kong China Yes, Pearl River Delta 223,000 687,000 39 35.94 1163.89 9
Data Source: Hanson et al., 2011.
Patricia L. McCarney
Flood Risk in Asia’s Urban Mega-deltas 47

including in the Indian and South West Pacific Oceans (Webster et al., 2005), and climate change model-
ling indicates a future increasing trend of extreme weather events over the next few decades (Nicholls,
2011; Prudhomme et al., 2010; Wilby et al., 2008). Clearly, low-lying deltaic communities are exposed
to multiple, climate-change-sensitive, hazards, which in future will occur in concert, compounding the
increasing flood risk.

Elevated Flood Hazard: Land Subsidence

Many Asian mega-deltas are facing land subsidence due to reduction in sediment replenishment, com-
paction and extraction of oil, gas and groundwater. For the Chinese coastal megacities of Shanghai
(Yangtze River Delta) and Tianjin, land subsidence was up to 11 cm annually in the 1980s due to extrac-
tion of groundwater to meet freshwater demand, and cumulative subsidence levels have exceeded three
metres in 2000s (Xu et al., 2008). Central Shanghai is now two metres below mean sea-level and both
cities are highly exposed to surges and so rely on embankments for coastal flood protection (Chen and
Wang, 1999). Groundwater extraction has caused Thailand’s Chao Phraya delta to subside by two metres
since 1970 with an annual 10 cm subsidence rate; this has seriously eroded Bangkok’s shoreline exacer-
bating flood risk from surges and sea-level rise (Syvitski et al., 2009).
Urbanization also impacts upon the geomorphology of deltas, reducing sediment input through activ-
ities such as construction of upstream dams, levees and artificial river banks, diversion of river channels,
and through land-use change (Syvitski et al., 2009; Syvitski & Kettner, 2011). For the Yellow, Yangtze
and Pearl River deltas, it is estimated that these practices have reduced sediment loads by 70–90 per cent
(Day and Giosan, 2008; Syvitski & Saito, 2007), limiting the sediment supply needed to maintain the
delta through natural aggradation processes. Syvitski et al. (2009) report that, with the exception of the
Red River delta, where there is a lack of data, all of the Asian mega-deltas are sinking below mean
sea-level (Table 1), due to a combination of land subsidence and sea level rise, further exacerbating
flood risk.

Future Flood Risk to Asian Coastal Mega-cities

Hanson et al. (2011) developed a ranking of flood risk for 136 global port cities, based on projected data
for 2070. Of these port cities at flood risk, 19 of the top 20 are Asian coastal megacities (based on pro-
jected population, economic assets, or both), most of them are from Asian mega-deltas (see Table 2).
This illustrates that coastal flood risk management is a major issue for Asia’s maritime mega-cities, par-
ticularly those located upon deltas. Whilst delta cities are at particular risk from flooding, non-deltaic
coastal cities in the region, such as Jakarta remain vulnerable to sea surges and tidal flooding (Fuchs et al.,
2011). Cumulatively, the population at flood risk across these cities will rise five to tenfold by 2070,
and economic assets at risk will similarly increase. Some cities experiencing rapid economic growth will
see a similarly rapid increase in the total economic asset base at risk. For example, Hanson et al. (2011)
estimate that assets at flood risk in Qingdao, China will increase from about three to US$ 600 Billion
over the next 60 years. Nicholls et al. (2008) warns that all coastal megacities must be prepared for the

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48 Faith Ka Shun Chan, Gordon Mitchell, Olalekan Adekola and Adrian McDonald

increasing flood risk. Currently, they are heavily reliant on hard engineering structures, such as embank-
ments, to protect against flooding (Nicholls, 1995, 2011), but climate change and subsidence means that
these measures may no longer offer the degree of protection they were designed to do.

Flood Risk in the Pearl River Delta

In this section, we examine in more detail, the themes developed above, through an examination of
growing flood risk in the Pearl River delta (PRD). The PRD is located in the southern centre of Guangdong
Province, China (Figure 1), with an area of about 41,698 km2, made up of nine municipal cities
(Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Zhuhai, Foshan, Jiangmen, Dongguan, Zhongshan, Huizhou, Zhaoqing) and
Hong Kong and Macau special administrative regions (SARs) (Yang, 2006).

Figure 1. Geographical Location of Asian Mega-deltas and Coastal Mega-cities

Environment and Urbanization ASIA, 3, 1 (2012): 41–61

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Flood Risk in Asia’s Urban Mega-deltas 49

The economy of the PRD boomed following the ‘open door economic policy’ of the late 1970s with
the Chinese Government aiming to transform the region as a manufacturing hub, and designating
Shenzhen as a special economic zone (SEZ) in 1980. This designation gave SEZ’s a remit to focus on
international trade, and through tax and foreign joint venture incentives encouraged strong foreign
investment in manufacturing (especially semi-conductors, textiles, and food). The region also benefited
from a geographical advantage, with container ports and a well-connected national railway network
available for exporting products (Yeh & Li, 1999). The PRD occupies about 0.5 per cent of the land area
of the People Republic of China, but produces about 20 per cent of its national GDP, accounts for more
than 30 per cent of foreign direct Investment, and 40 per cent of national exports, thus the PRD is known
as the ‘World’s Factory’ (Zhang et al., 2011) and an ‘economic miracle’ (Yeung, 2010).
This economic growth generated employment opportunities and encouraged inward migration to the
PRD region. Consequently, the population increased more than ten-fold over three decades. The PRD
(including Hong Kong and Macau) had 4.6 million people in 1980, but an estimated 60 million in 2008
(Zhou & Cai, 2010), and is expected to become a megacity region, dominated by the megacities of Hong
Kong, Shenzhen and Guangzhou, with a combined population of over 80 million by 2030 (Yeung, 2009),
and potentially 120 million by 2050 (UN-Habitat, 2008).
The PRD is subject to flooding that is attributed to sea-level rise, and to pluvial and fluvial flash
flooding in response to extreme weather events. Zhang et al. (2011) reported that mean sea level in the
PRD rose an average 26mm per decade from 1954–2009, and notes that that mean sea level has risen
significantly in the 1990s (Figure 2), an observation supported by further PRD data from other tidal

Figure 2. Annual Mean Sea-level at North Point/Quarry Bay (1954–2008)

Source: Adapted from Zhang et al. (2011).

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50 Faith Ka Shun Chan, Gordon Mitchell, Olalekan Adekola and Adrian McDonald

gauges and satellite sensing. Chen & Chen (2002) predicted sea level would rise a further 200 mm in the
PRD by 2050, making more than 2,000 km2 of coastal low-lying land vulnerable to tidal inundation
(Huang et al., 2004).
Syvitski et al. (2009) estimate that over 3,720 km2 of the PRD has subsided and is now within two
metres of mean sea level (see Table 1). However, this land remains under intense development pressure.
Ouyang et al. (2006) report that urban land cover in the PRD has increased from 29.5 per cent in 1982,
to 71 per cent in 2000, and Yeung (2010) reports that today it is over 80 per cent, with much of the sub-
sided coastal area in Zhuhai, Macau, Zhongshan, Shenzhen and Guangzhou now developed. In these
areas, subsidence has been triggered by building skyscrapers on top of Mollisol, an unstable soil com-
mon throughout the PRD (Xu et al., 2009). Space for further expansion is being developed by reclaiming
land from the sea. Li and Damen (2010) describe a large land reclamation project in the Shenzhen bay
area along the Shekou Peninsula. Land is reclaimed from coastal wetlands, which provided valuable tidal
flood water storage, which may thus exacerbate flood risk in the locality. Hay and Mimura (2006)
observed that such reclamation have moved the coastline 1 km seaward over the last decade.
The PRD is characterized by a tropical-subtropical monsoon climate. Typhoons, storm surges, tidal
changes and intense rainstorms are common during the wet season of May to September. The Hong
Kong Observatory (HKO) has recorded 20 surges where the water level was at least 1.5 metres above the
average mean sea-level (MSL) from 1954–2009 (Lee et al., 2010), whilst Zhang (2009) reported 41
storm surges of between 1.9 to 2.6 metres in the PRD, from 1991 to 2005 (Figure 3). In 2008 and 2009,
typhoons Koppu and Hagupit generated surges over 1m that caused inundation of the low-lying urban
areas of Tai O town and Sheng Wan. Sea water backed up storm drains and flooded main streets and

Figure 3. Typhoon Storm Surges in the PRD, 1991–2005

Source: Adapted from Zhang (2009).

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Flood Risk in Asia’s Urban Mega-deltas 51

many properties (Lee et al., 2010) (Figure 4). If more extreme events occur, like 1962’s typhoon Wanda
which created surges 4 m above MSL, then much greater damage to low lying areas in Hong Kong is
likely (Chan et al., 2010).

Figure 4. Tai O Town Flood in 2008 after Typhoon Koppu

Source: Eddie Tse.

Cai et al. (2011) estimate that 86.7 per cent of the PRD coastal area relies on hard engineering infra-
structure, like dikes and embankments for flood protection, but note that few are able to mitigate a one
in 100 year storm surge. Recent study estimates that a sea-level rise of 30 cm by 2030, accompanied
by a one in 100 year storm surge, would inundate more than 80 per cent of the land area in the PRD
(6,520 km2) (Zhang, 2009), and directly impact upon the homes of one million people, with economic
losses of 231 billion RMB (US$ 30 billion) (Research Team of China Climate Change Country Study,
1999). However, flood defences to protect against this event are estimated to cost 262 billion RMB
(US$ 35 billion) because the coastal area is large and diverse, which means that a hard engineering
approach to coastal flood risk management is likely uneconomic and unable to protect all properties and
economic assets locate on coastal low-lying are in the delta.

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52 Faith Ka Shun Chan, Gordon Mitchell, Olalekan Adekola and Adrian McDonald

Pluvial floods often occur in the PRD as 80 per cent of annual precipitation (2200 mm) normally
occurs from May to September during the typhoon season. The HKO note that both peak intensity and
frequency of intense rainstorms has increased in the last century, and annual precipitation and extreme
rainstorms are expected to increase in this century (Lee et al., 2010). Hong Kong has recorded heavy rain
(more than 200 mm over a 24-hour period) during some days of every rainy season in the last decade.
This cause flash flooding (sudden-onset flooding) as catchments in Hong Kong are characterized by
steep hills and an urbanized floodplain with urban drainage systems that are unable to cope with peak
flows (Chui et al., 2006). This pattern is repeated for the delta as a whole, with hilly regions in the north
and east of the Pearl River the source of flash floods that impact upon cities in the low-lying areas of
southern Guangdong province, like Guangzhou, Foshan, Dongguan and Shenzhen (Zhang et al., 2011).
In July 2010, typhoon Chanthu brought more than 150 mm rain in an hour in Hong Kong, and caused
pluvial flash flooding along the Shenzhen River catchment, with three deaths by drowning. The public
now question whether the current one in 50 year flood risk protection standard is sufficient to deal with
these extreme events, particularly given the spectre of climate change, and question the appropriateness
of continuing urban development in such flood prone areas (Chan et al., 2010).
Flood risk in the PRD is already very high and continues to increase due to climate change, and to
population and economic growth which puts more people at risk, particularly in the megacities of
Guangzhou, Hong Kong and Shenzhen. Table 2 reveals that Guangzhou is ranked fourth for population
at risk in 2070 (more than 10 million) and second in terms of economic assets (US$ 3,357 billion); Hong
Kong is ranked ninth in terms of economic assets and Shenzhen eighteenth in terms of population
(Hanson et al., 2011). If these cities are treated as a mega city region, we see that the region has the sec-
ond greatest (after Kolkata) number of people estimated to be at risk of flooding in 2070 than anywhere
in the world, with the most economic assets at risk (US$ 4.7 trillion in 2070).
The PRD is clearly subject to significant coastal and pluvial flood risks, but to date relatively little
attention has been paid to strategic flood risk management, particularly that which recognizes the pres-
sure from climate change and the difficulties and dangers of relying on project based engineering flood
defences. This is exemplified by a recent government report on strategic housing provision in the PRD
to 2050 which does not consider existing flood risk or the additional risk that comes with a changing cli-
mate (Guangdong Province Housing & Urban – Rural Department, 2011) The current FRM practice in
the PRD have not addressed adaptations and soft flood risk management approaches, that is, flood warn-
ing in the policy (Chan et al., 2010). Chui et al. (2006) indicated the Hong Kong and Shenzhen author-
ities have applied advanced technology on flood risk modelling; however, that information has not been
not released to the public and insurance companies. This makes it difficult for private insurers to offer
flood insurance coverage sharing the risk, and the public cannot prepare for flooding, an indication that
flood insurance is not included in the policy. The Shenzhen River Regulation project is an example to
demonstrate most of the flood risk mitigation works are ad-hoc project based without strategic consider-
ations of wider aspects i.e. ecological impacts and climate change (Ng et al., 2011). Planning authorities
are separated from the flood management institutions (e.g. Drainage Service Department in Hong Kong
and Shenzhen Water Bureau), planners not address the flood risk in strategic planning practice, many
new developments are still progressing along the Shenzhen Bay low-lying coastal area (Zhou and Cai,
2010). This mirrors the wider findings of Katsman et al. (2011), who report that despite the important
roles Asian mega-deltas play in the economy, ecology and culture of their region, and recognition of their
vulnerability to flooding, holistic or integrated flood policy, particularly that which recognizes climate
change pressures is largely non-existent.

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Flood Risk in Asia’s Urban Mega-deltas 53

International Experience in Flood Risk Management in Deltas

The growing flood risk in Asian mega-city deltas, exemplified by frequency of flood events, and the dif-
ficulty of flood mitigation, suggest that it may be valuable to reflect on wider international experience in
coastal flood risk management to protect urban areas.
The Dutch have lived with significant flood risk for more than 2,000 years. The Netherlands includes
one of the most densely populated delta areas, the Rhine-Meuse delta region with important cities like
Rotterdam and Amsterdam (Tol & Langen, 2000). From 1200 AD, the Dutch built levees (dikes) to pro-
tect their lands against the high tides and waves, and from the 1600s used windmills to pump water from
low-lying floodplains. From the 1700s to the late 1900s land was reclaimed from the sea, primarily for
agriculture, and protected by engineered flood defence works (Wesselink et al., 2007). In 1953, a coastal
surge broke 900 dikes and the sea inundated protected areas, displacing 750,000 residents and drowning
1,835 people. After this catastrophe, the Dutch government established a Delta Commission to improve
flood protection. Defences were required to protection against a flood with a one in 1,250 years return
period, and the authorities were urged to plan for the recurrence of extreme events like the 1,953 flood
(Vis et al., 2003). In the last few decades, the commission has raised the flood protection standard to a
one in 10,000 year flood return period for the economically important areas, and other areas are pro-
tected by a one in 4,000 years flood return period standard (Van Stokkom & Witter, 2008). Nevertheless,
the Rhine and Meuse Rivers flooded in 1993 and 1995 due to torrential winter (December to February)
rainstorms in both events. Peak discharge in 1993 and 1995 floods were at 3,120 m3/s and 2,861 m3/s
respectively, at least 1 metre water overflow the Rhine and Meuse River, inundated urban and economi-
cally important areas (Wind et al., 1999). After the Rhine-Meuse floods, it is alleged that the Dutch gov-
ernment had not addressed the fluvial flood protection standard in parallel with the coastal flood
protection standards, and had also permitted inappropriate over-development of urban area along the
Rhine-Meuse floodplains (Middelkoop et al., 2004). The Dutch government have come to adopt policies
that indicate that they realize that relying on engineering flood defences alone is inadequate.
Since then, the Dutch government has developed a ’Room for the River’ policy, which accepts that it
is not feasible (e.g. financially) to implement flood safety levels through infrastructure only to keep pace
with climate change. The government has thus moved from a philosophy of flood protection or defence
towards one of flood risk management (FRM). The FRM paradigm recognizes the flood risk, and focuses
on creating more flood storage capacity for the river, and integrating closely with the spatial planning
system to restrict development on floodplains (van Stokkom et al., 2005). This policy has encouraged
stakeholders to manage flood risk with consideration of landuse planning, fisheries, leisure, potable
water resources and nature conservation in an integrated approach (e.g. via the INTERREG Rhine-
Meuse Activities (IRMA) programme which since 1995 has sought to collectively address socio-eco-
nomic developments and sustainable management of water resources). Since 2000, the government has
further implemented FRM policies of ’Living with Water’ and ‘Living in a Dynamic Delta’, aimed at
enhancing resilience to flood risk rather than resistance to it, and promoting water as a friend not an
enemy, through conservation of the natural floodplain (Wesselink et al., 2007). These practices also
deliver additional benefits, that is, habitat conservation, formerly neglected in Dutch flood management,
and promotion of good ecological quality of watercourses, a goal of European environmental policy
under the Water Framework Directive (Hooijer et al., 2004).
Dutch FRM practice also addresses social and economic sustainability objectives. Authorities
perform extended economic appraisal to identify the most suitable flood risk mitigation options for a

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54 Faith Ka Shun Chan, Gordon Mitchell, Olalekan Adekola and Adrian McDonald

particular at risk location, and seek to ensure social justice in flood protection—that all else being equal,
equal levels of flood protection are provided to all, with beneficiaries of development (e.g. property
developers) contributing to flood protection measures (Van Stokkom & Witter, 2008).
In 2007, the European Union (EU) Floods Directive required all member states to produce flood risk
and hazard maps by 2015, with the flood risk information released to the public (European Union, 2007).
The public will therefore understand the quantitative flood risk, as return periods, in different locations,
and be made aware of a locations flood history. This will increase awareness of flood risk and foster
flood risk reduction preparation to reduce vulnerability. Private insurers will be able to offer flood insur-
ance, sharing flood risk more widely (Gersonius et al., 2011).
The Dutch government recognizes that effective river basin management is key to successful flood
risk mitigation for the Rhine and Meuse Deltas. However, upper parts of these rivers are located in
Germany, France, Belgium and Luxembourg. Transboundary co-operation on flood risk management
and river basin management is therefore important, and is achieved via the International Commission on
the Protection of the river Rhine (ICPR) (Hooijer et al., 2002). The ICPR studied flood risk for the Rhine
and Meuse Deltas, and estimated the potential damage from climate change related pluvial and sea surge
flooding at about US$ 100 billion for the entire Rhine and Meuse catchments, of which 80 per cent is
related to the low-lying Dutch floodplain. The ICPR developed a management strategy designed to
reduce flood risk by 25 per cent by 2020 through measures such as accommodating sea-level rise and
coastal surges through managed release, coastal realignment and flood defence works; surface water
storage and management in Rhine and Meuse catchment; and improving public awareness of flood risk,
and flood warning systems (van Stokkom et al., 2005). The ICPR’s analysis of management measures
under a climate change scenario illustrated that measures making use of natural wetland storage are most
cost effective, whilst offering the greatest ecological benefits (Tol et al., 2003).
The 1953 sea surge that affected the Netherlands so severely also wrought havoc across the North
sea, with 300 deaths along the East coast of England, and today it is clear that the mega-city of London
is at risk of further sea surges and sea level rises, particularly in the low-lying Thames estuary and central
London areas (Lonsdale et al., 2008). Presently, the area vulnerable to flooding covers 345 km2, with
more than 480,000 properties, 1.25 million people, 2,450 km of strategic transport links (e.g. railway,
motorway, etc) and the 2012 Olympic park site all exposed to coastal flood risk. Following the 1953
flood, a movable tidal barrier across the Thames was planned, which began operation in 1983, offering
flood protection at one in 1000 year return period standard against sea surges and tidal waves (Lavery
and Donovan, 2005).
Although the barrier will provide flood protection to this standard to the end of its design life in 2035,
flood risk in the Thames estuary is increasing due to climate change and sea level rise (from thermal
expansion of the oceans and post glacial period isostatic adjustment of eastern England), ageing of the
current flood defence infrastructure (including walls and other sea gates), and because more people are
living and working in the defended floodplain. The Environment Agency has therefore developed a stra-
tegic flood risk plan for the next century (TE, 2100) to ensure continued flood protection for London.
This plan involves maintaining and improving the current flood defence system including, and imple-
menting floodplain management through spatial planning and flood defence realignment to create habi-
tat (to 2035); upgrade or replace the current network of defences up/down stream of the Thames Barrier
(2035–2070), and finally implement the agreed end of century option, possibly a new barrier at Long
Reach further downstream of the current barrier, which may prove safer and more cost effective than
upgrading the existing barrier (2070–2100) (Environment Agency, 2009).

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Flood Risk in Asia’s Urban Mega-deltas 55

TE 2100 is notable in that it is an example of a long-term strategic plan designed to address flood risk
in a coastal mega-city subject to increasing risk due to continued urbanization and climate change pres-
sure. However, whilst engineered flood defences are a key part of the plan, it is also notable for its use
of other flood risk management measures (Woodward et al., 2011). These include spatial planning (e.g.
directing development away from high risk or flood attenuating areas, surface water management in the
catchment), maintenance and extension of natural habitat areas to provide flood storage and amenity
benefit, emergency response plans, and active engagement with stakeholders and the wider public over
the development and implementation of the plan (Dawson et al., 2011). This approach is consistent with
national policy on flood risk management (PPS25) that (DCLG, 2007), similar to the Dutch approach,
recognizes that flood risk cannot be eradicated through defensive engineering alone (Fleming, 2002),
and that additional measures, such as ‘making space for water’ (Johnson and Priest, 2008) and non-
structural flood measures such as land use planning, public education, emergency response systems and
effective insurance for post flood recovery, are critical (Evans et al., 2004). This more holistic approach
to rising flood risk in coastal cities is also evident in Australia (Sydney, Brisbane, Melbourne) and New
Zealand (Auckland) (Walsh et al., 2004), but appears little practiced in coastal cities of the PRD, or Asia
more widely.

Conclusion
Across Asia, deltas are home to cities and city regions that are major economic hubs with resident popu-
lations of many millions of people. Asian delta cities face significant flood risk, as evidenced by a history
of recent major flood events across the region. Such events are increasingly likely in future due to con-
tinuing reduction in delta aggradation, subsidence from natural resource extraction, and climate change
induced extreme weather events and sea level rise from oceanic thermal expansion, which increases
expose to pluvial and marine flood hazard. The anticipated rapid growth of these cities (UN-Habitat,
2008) increases the population and economic assets exposed to such hazard, and the overall flood risk.
The flood risk is clearly already substantial, and requires development and implementation of appro-
priate flood risk management strategies. Internationally, there is a recognition that it may not always be
possible to protect major urban centres through defensive infrastructure alone, given the high cost, and
that more holistic and integrated flood risk management strategies are needed which additionally employ
a range of flood planning, preparedness and resilience measures. Asian delta cities face particularly acute
flood risk, amongst the greatest of coastal cities internationally (Hanson et al., 2011), yet there is little
evidence to indicate that they are developing adequate flood defence or resilience systems to cope with
future pressures. What then, could be done to mitigate flood risk in these cities?
The driving forces of growing flood risk have considerable inertia, and it is unrealistic to expect to
offset future flood risk by addressing them directly. However, there is clearly a need to recognize the
flood risk problem that they present, and to develop strategic plans to mitigate against that risk. A review
of existing flood defence measures is likely to reveal that, by international standards, levels of flood pro-
tection for critical assets are low in Asian mega-delta cities. For example, the Central and Sheng-Wan
Business zone in Hong Kong, which includes the Hong Kong stock exchange, is protected only to a one
in 50 year return period flood standard (Chui et al., 2006), hence additional defensive measures may
be necessary to increase the level of protection. Spatial planning needs to develop a flood risk sensitive

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56 Faith Ka Shun Chan, Gordon Mitchell, Olalekan Adekola and Adrian McDonald

approach, in which flood risk is recognized, and land use policy and plans used to direct development
away from areas at flood risk, or which will exacerbate flood risk downstream. Our experience of the
PRD indicates that flood sensitive development is not currently practised, and that flood mitigation is
practiced in a project based ad hoc manner, rather than part of a regional planning strategy. Experience
in Europe and elsewhere indicates that building flood resilience through a ‘making space for water’
approach (using wetland restoration, sustainable urban drainage system, and artificial flood storage facil-
ities) is more viable than attempting to defend all vulnerable people and assets, and this approach deserves
to be explored within the context of Asian delta cities. We recognize however that the rate of change in
Asian megacities, relative to that experienced in the European examples we cite, will add a considerable
additional challenge to flood management by communities and strategic planning.
International experience also suggests that there is merit in wider stakeholder engagement when
developing flood risk management plans. This raises awareness of flood risk, supports identification of
acceptable level of risk and mitigation measures for different areas, and draws in relevant expertise when
designing mitigation (e.g. wildlife groups involved in wetland design) so as to maximize wider public
benefits. A key element of this process is an open and transparent dialogue, supported by available infor-
mation. The EU Floods Directive (European Union, 2007) means that flood hazard risk maps are readily
available (in the UK they are free of charge via the internet) which enables people to better understand
their flood risk, and take appropriate action. Such information is essential to develop a public who are
adequately prepared for floods, and adequately insured against them. Such data is not generally available
to the public in Asian delta cities; in the PRD it exists but is confidential (release requires special con-
sent) hence householders may locate in ignorance of the flood risk to which a property is exposed.
As Asian deltas often sit at the mouth of large rivers, there is also scope to consider the role of trans-
boundary flood risk management. Flood risk mitigation in the Dutch Rhine-Meuse delta included surface
water management plans for the upper pats of the basin in Germany, Belgium and France, which required
the work of an international commission, to foster collaborative working intended to deliver basin scale
interventions (Hooijer et al., 2002), a practice then encouraged more widely by the EU Floods Directive.
However, such co-operation is less evident in Asian delta cities. The PRD has a ‘Regional Cooperation
Plan on Building a Quality Living Area’ that seeks to co-ordinate development across the PRD over the
next 30 years, but this neglects to address flood risk and climate change pressures. Regional scale flood
risk management co-ordination throughout the delta and extending to upriver provinces is needed.
Fuchs et al. (2011) estimate that, with sea level rise at IPCC’s upper predicted limit (59 cm by 2100),
one in 100 year storm surge places 362 million people at risk across Asia’s delta cities. This is clearly a
major risk but one which is highly unlikely to be tackled through hard engineering options alone. If
greater protection is to be offered, this may come through adoption of flood strategies based on greater
integrative planning, and a focus on building flood resilience rather than flood defence.

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Flood Risk in Asia’s Urban Mega-deltas 61

Faith Ka Shun Chan, School of Geography, University of Leeds, Research Associate.

E-mail: k.s.chan@leeds.ac.uk (correspondent author)

Gordon Mitchell, School of Geography, University of Leeds, Senior Lecturer.

Olalekan Adekola, School of Geography, University of Leeds, Postgraduate research fellow.

Adrian McDonald, School of Geography, University of Leeds, Professor.

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 62 Patricia L. McCarney

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