Goldsheff is an institution of the Nutraceutical system of medicine that is dedicated

for health care. Goldsheff offers a wide range of 1st, 2nd, and 3rd line of preventive
curative and palliative products against ailments of all sorts. Initially being a
daughter concern of Goldsheff HF. UK, Goldsheff Nutraceuticals Pvt Ltd. has
gradually upgraded its reputation to full throttle. The company has recently received
an order from one of its major customers at Azerbaijan for a maximum of 100,000
packs of Prosense tablets. Prosense is a highly effective nerve rejuvenator to treat the
loss of memory, loss of concentration, peripheral vascular diseases and cognitive
impairment. The order delivery date promised by Goldsheff is July 15, 2020.

However, there are some constraints upon production planning. These are listed
below.

1. The product must be manufactured in batches, and there are uncertainties

regarding the production time per batch and the yield per batch.
2. The batches must go through a rigorous quality inspection test, and the
probability that a typical batch passes inspection is 0.93 (93%), a benchmark
set by the company. Should a batch fail the quality inspection test, it is
discarded and therefore goes to waste. Whether a batch passes/fails the test is
uncertain.
3. The compositional ingredients are limited in quantity, and the company must
utilize as much of each ingredient’s inventory as possible.

Available information to produce the tablet is given below:

• One Prosense tablet composition:
- 100 mg of Gingko Biloba extract
- 144 mg of Ginseng extract
- 25 mg of Bacopa Monnieri
- 11 mg of excipients (miscellaneous ingredients)
• Total weight of one Prosense tablet: 280 mg
• Compositional ingredients inventory:
- 250 kg of Gingko Biloba extract
- 200 kg of Ginseng extract
- 35 kg of Bacopa Monnieri
- 25 kg of excipients

• Data of 500 batches (obtained from last few years’ record):

- Yield per batch
 Triangular distribution of yield per batch of Prosense tablets:
Minimum→20,010 packs
Maximum→24,997 packs
Most likely (mode)→22,747 packs
- Probabilistic production times per batch
3 days→0.03 probability
4 days→0.12 probability
5 days→0.23 probability
6 days→0.26 probability
7 days→0.17 probability
8 days→0.12 probability
9 days→0.07 probability

Build the suitable model(s) to help Goldsheff Nutraceuticals decide when

production should be started to meet the customer order. Modify your model to
address the following complexities.
• What will be the maximum number of Prosense packs produced if 5% of
Ginseng extract was spoiled during warehouse storage, and the composition of
the medicine was changed such that the Gingko Biloba extract: Ginseng extract
ratio is now 3:2?
• Due to an unforeseen event, the customer in Azerbaijan now demands the order
to be delivered at an earlier date of 7th July 2020. The order has also increased
from 100,000 packs of Prosense to 120,000 packs of Prosense. Based on your
analysis of the simulation results, which decision-making attitude would you opt
for, and why?

(Note: Use assumptions for the parameters/figures not provided or consult the officially
provided facts and figures available on the internet.)

“Success comes only to those who believe in themselves and are prepared to win.
Good Luck.”