Background

Answers

Second
There is a 0% probability that Honda's market share will be more than 45%.
Third
There is a 0% probability that Honda's market share will be at most 38%
Fourth
 Input parameters Probability of opening in July
Time for new generation 2 months 0.7
Chance of early approval 40% 0.85
0.9

July August
Do nothing #NAME? #NAME?
New Generation #NAME?
New Features #NAME? #NAME?

Historical market share Honda Sales Toyota sales Honda market share
July'15 2,181 3,868 0.36055546371301
Aug'15 2,002 4,972 0.287066246056782
Sept'15 2,001 4,672 0.299865128128278
Oct'15 1,875 4,912 0.276263444820981
Nov'15 1,523 4,960 0.234922103964214
Dec'15 1,028 4,297 0.193051643192488
Jan'16 3,015 5,544 0.352260778128286
Feb'16 2,168 4,844 0.309184255561894
Mar'16 2,749 5,275 0.342597208374875
Apr'16 2,751 4,859 0.36149802890933
May'16 2,507 5,207 0.324993518278455
June'16 1,926 4,042 0.322721179624665
July'16 2,121 3,678 0.365752715985515
Aug'16 3,174 4,572 0.409759876065066
Sept'16 2,764 4,405 0.385548891058725
Oct'16 3,000 3,954 0.431406384814495
Nov'16 3,096 5,019 0.381515711645102
Dec'16 2,416 4,140 0.368517388651617
Jan'17 4,002 5,108 0.439297475301866
Feb'17 3,752 4,625 0.447893040467948
Mar'17 3,795 5,193 0.422229639519359
Apr'17 2,992 4,753 0.386313750806972
May'17 3,784 4,220 0.472763618190905
Jun'17 2,108 3,009 0.411960132890365
July'17 3,820 3,875 0.496426250812216
Aug'17 3,945 4,782 0.452045376418013
Sept'17 2,769 4,108 0.402646502835539
Oct'17 3,415 4,216 0.447516708164068
Nov'17 3,208 4,537 0.414202711426727
Dec'17 2,464 3,807 0.392919789507256
Jan'18 3,888 4,243 0.478169966793752
Feb'18 3,900 4,034 0.491555331484749
Mar'18 4,665 4,642 0.501235629096379
Apr'18 4,045 4,946 0.449894338783228
May'18 3,750 4,676 0.445051032518395
June'18 2,941 3,546 0.453368275011562
July'18 4,609 4,566 0.502343324250681
Aug'18 3,469 4,204 0.452104783005343
Sept'18 4,083 4,426 0.479844870137501
Oct'18 4,482 5,618 0.443762376237624
Nov'18 3,152 4,957 0.388703909236651
Dec'18 1,989 4,179 0.322470817120623
Jan'19 4,026 5,353 0.429256850410491
Feb'19 2,950 4,945 0.373654211526282
Mar'19 3,449 4,741 0.421123321123321
Apr'19 2,310 5,256 0.305313243457573
May'19 2,564 4,069 0.386552088044625
June'19 2,106 4,406 0.323402948402948
Toyota market share growth Toyota's growth in case of new generati
2% -3%
3% 0%
5% 0.75%

Toyota's Market share

September October
#NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME?

Toyota market share Probability

0.63944453628699 0.020833333333333
0.712933753943218 0.020833333333333
0.700134871871722 0.020833333333333
0.723736555179019 0.020833333333333
0.765077896035786 0.020833333333333
0.806948356807512 0.020833333333333
0.647739221871714 0.020833333333333
0.690815744438106 0.020833333333333
0.657402791625125 0.020833333333333
0.63850197109067 0.020833333333333
0.675006481721545 0.020833333333333
0.677278820375335 0.020833333333333
0.634247284014485 0.020833333333333
0.590240123934934 0.020833333333333
0.614451108941275 0.020833333333333
0.568593615185505 0.020833333333333
0.618484288354898 0.020833333333333
0.631482611348383 0.020833333333333
0.560702524698134 0.020833333333333
0.552106959532052 0.020833333333333
0.577770360480641 0.020833333333333
0.613686249193028 0.020833333333333
0.527236381809095 0.020833333333333
0.588039867109635 0.020833333333333
0.503573749187784 0.020833333333333
0.547954623581987 0.020833333333333
0.597353497164461 0.020833333333333
0.552483291835932 0.020833333333333
0.585797288573273 0.020833333333333
0.607080210492744 0.020833333333333
0.521830033206248 0.020833333333333
0.508444668515251 0.020833333333333
0.498764370903621 0.020833333333333
0.550105661216772 0.020833333333333
0.554948967481605 0.020833333333333
0.546631724988438 0.020833333333333
0.497656675749319 0.020833333333333
0.547895216994657 0.020833333333333
0.520155129862498 0.020833333333333
0.556237623762376 0.020833333333333
0.611296090763349 0.020833333333333
0.677529182879377 0.020833333333333
0.570743149589509 0.020833333333333
0.626345788473718 0.020833333333333
0.578876678876679 0.020833333333333
0.694686756542427 0.020833333333333
0.613447911955375 0.020833333333333
0.676597051597052 0.020833333333333
1
Toyota's growth in case of features
-0.75%
1.50%
2%

November December January February

#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME?
March April May June
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
@RISK Output Results
Performed By: Sohaib
Date: Sunday, May 17, 2020 10:36:36 AM

Name Cell Graph Min Mean

Range: New Generation

New Generation / August D10 0.4976567 0.6105494

New Generation / September E10 0.4803118 0.6280806

New Generation / October F10 0.4588296 0.6202052

New Generation / November G10 0.4574374 0.6127101

New Generation / December H10 0.4470497 0.6050875

New Generation / January I10 0.4315135 0.5976542

New Generation / February J10 0.4258434 0.5902262

New Generation / March K10 0.4109673 0.5825254

New Generation / April L10 0.3993546 0.5750807

New Generation / May M10 0.3826832 0.5674608

New Generation / June N10 0.3812009 0.5598419

Range: New Features

New Features / July C11 0.4976567 0.6072607

New Features / August D11 0.4918393 0.6168296

New Features / September E11 0.4966649 0.6259252

New Features / October F11 0.4990961 0.6350651

New Features / November G11 0.5042951 0.6442842

New Features / December H11 0.5018593 0.6533766

New Features / January I11 0.5117222 0.6625717

New Features / February J11 0.5121236 0.671773

New Features / March K11 0.5252104 0.6809733

New Features / April L11 0.5310013 0.690143

New Features / May M11 0.5396421 0.6993705

New Features / June N11 0.5455264 0.7085074

Max 5% 95% Errors

0.8069484 0.5035738 0.7237366 3016

0.8541691 0.5255461 0.7548772 3016

0.8578128 0.5176145 0.7469733 3016

0.8553948 0.5097277 0.7391089 3016

0.845722 0.5003954 0.7355139 3016

0.8419783 0.4914401 0.7307882 3016

0.8451125 0.4819882 0.7226982 3016

0.8367544 0.4742994 0.7161894 3016

0.8356326 0.4660858 0.7040785 3016

0.8388715 0.4566272 0.7003351 3016

0.8369309 0.4490704 0.6925519 3016

0.8069484 0.5035738 0.7237366 924

0.8252159 0.5141782 0.7377864 1663

0.8425011 0.5231593 0.7478669 1663

0.8551915 0.5312591 0.7579006 1663

0.8701874 0.540304 0.7691088 1663

0.8824701 0.5480809 0.7794172 1663

0.89704 0.556985 0.7887447 1663

0.907904 0.5646119 0.7991985 1663

0.9226023 0.5740418 0.81046 1663

0.9333196 0.5815961 0.818436 1663

0.942921 0.5920482 0.8282952 1663

0.9584429 0.6006944 0.8364633 1663