0.1 0.

7
0.9 0.3

Mô hình san bằng số mũ giản đơn

t Tháng Nhu cầu thực tế (At) SES (0.1) Sai số (et) |At-Ft| |(At-Ft)/At| SES (0.7)
1 Jan 90 90 0 0 0 90
2 Feb 106 90 16 16 0.1509434 90
3 Mar 152 91.6 60.4 60.4 0.39736842 101.2
4 Apr 244 97.64 146.36 146.36 0.59983607 136.76
5 May 302 112.276 189.724 189.724 0.62822517 211.828
6 Jun 274 131.2484 142.7516 142.7516 0.52099124 274.9484
7 Jul 162 145.52356 16.47644 16.47644 0.10170642 274.28452
8 Aug 194 147.171204 46.828796 46.828796 0.24138555 195.685356
9 Sep 312 151.854084 160.145916 160.145916 0.51328819 194.5056068
10 Oct 359 167.868675 191.131325 191.131325 0.53239923 276.751682
11 Nov 215 186.981808 28.0181923 28.0181923 0.13031717 334.3255046
12 Dec 126 189.783627 -63.7836269 63.7836269 0.50621926 250.7976514
13 Jan 94 183.405264 -89.4052642 89.4052642 0.95111983 163.4392954
14 Feb 125 174.464738 -49.4647378 49.4647378 0.3957179 114.8317886
15 Mar 147 169.518264 -22.518264 22.518264 0.15318547 121.9495366
16 Apr 273 167.266438 105.733562 105.733562 0.38730243 139.484861
17 May 349 177.839794 171.160206 171.160206 0.49043039 232.9454583
18 Jun 310 194.955814 115.044186 115.044186 0.37111028 314.1836375
19 Jul 178 206.460233 -28.460233 28.460233 0.15988895 311.2550912
20 Aug 182 203.61421 -21.6142097 21.6142097 0.11875939 217.9765274
21 Sep 323 201.452789 121.547211 121.547211 0.37630716 192.7929582
22 Oct 400 213.60751 186.39249 186.39249 0.46598123 283.9378875
23 Nov 252 232.246759 19.7532411 19.7532411 0.07838588 365.1813662
24 Dec 179 234.222083 -55.222083 55.222083 0.30850326 285.9544099
25 Jan 131 228.699875 -97.6998747 97.6998747 0.74580057 211.086323
26 Feb 142 218.929887 -76.9298872 76.9298872 0.54175977 155.0258969
27 Mar 186 211.236899 -25.2368985 25.2368985 0.13568225 145.9077691
28 Apr 307 208.713209 98.2867913 98.2867913 0.32015241 173.9723307
29 May 398 218.541888 179.458112 179.458112 0.45089978 267.0916992
30 Jun 348 236.487699 111.512301 111.512301 0.32043765 358.7275098
31 Jul 217 247.638929 -30.6389291 30.6389291 0.14119322 351.2182529
32 Aug 228 244.575036 -16.5750362 16.5750362 0.07269753 257.2654759
33 Sep 384 242.917533 141.082467 141.082467 0.36740226 236.7796428
34 Oct 460 257.025779 202.974221 202.974221 0.44124831 339.8338928
35 Nov 273 277.323201 -4.32320139 4.32320139 0.0158359 423.9501678
36 Dec 206 276.890881 -70.8908813 70.8908813 0.34413049 318.2850504
37 Jan 152 269.801793 -117.801793 117.801793 0.7750118 239.6855151
38 Feb 141 258.021614 -117.021614 117.021614 0.82994052 178.3056545
39 Mar 194 246.319452 -52.3194524 52.3194524 0.2696879 152.1916964
40 Apr 353 241.087507 111.912493 111.912493 0.31703256 181.4575089
41 May 449 252.278756 196.721244 196.721244 0.43813195 301.5372527
42 Jun 415 271.950881 143.049119 143.049119 0.34469667 404.7611758
43 Jul 236 286.255793 -50.2557927 50.2557927 0.21294827 411.9283527
44 Aug 253 281.230213 -28.2302135 28.2302135 0.11158187 288.7785058
45 Sep 420 278.407192 141.592808 141.592808 0.33712573 263.7335517
46 Oct 504 292.566473 211.433527 211.433527 0.41951097 373.1200655
47 Nov 343 313.709826 29.2901744 29.2901744 0.08539409 464.7360197
48 Dec 231 316.638843 -85.6388431 85.6388431 0.37073092 379.5208059
49 Jan 308.074959 275.5562418
SUM 2180.74959 SUM
SUMSQ 586108.595 SUMSQ
# Obs. 48 # Obs.
Avg. error 45.4322831 Avg. error
MSE 12210.5957 MSE
RMSE 110.501564 RMSE
MAD 91.4335679 MAD
MAPE 35.3925118 MAPE
mũ giản đơn
Sai số (et) |At-Ft| |(At-Ft)/At|
0 0 0
16 16 0.1509434
50.8 50.8 0.3342105
107.24 107.24 0.4395082
90.172 90.172 0.2985828
-0.9484 0.9484 0.0034613
-112.28452 112.28452 0.6931143
-1.685356 1.685356 0.0086874
117.4943932 117.49439 0.3765846
82.24831796 82.248318 0.2291039
-119.3255046 119.3255 0.5550023
-124.7976514 124.79765 0.9904576
-69.43929542 69.439295 0.7387159
10.16821138 10.168211 0.0813457
25.05046341 25.050463 0.1704113
133.515139 133.51514 0.4890664
116.0545417 116.05454 0.3325345
-4.183637488 4.1836375 0.0134956
-133.2550912 133.25509 0.7486241
-35.97652737 35.976527 0.1976732
130.2070418 130.20704 0.4031178
116.0621125 116.06211 0.2901553
-113.1813662 113.18137 0.4491324
-106.9544099 106.95441 0.5975107
-80.08632296 80.086323 0.611346
-13.02589689 13.025897 0.0917317
40.09223093 40.092231 0.2155496
133.0276693 133.02767 0.4333149
130.9083008 130.9083 0.3289153
-10.72750976 10.72751 0.0308262
-134.2182529 134.21825 0.6185173
-29.26547588 29.265476 0.1283574
147.2203572 147.22036 0.3833863
120.1661072 120.16611 0.2612307
-150.9501678 150.95017 0.552931
-112.2850504 112.28505 0.5450731
-87.68551511 87.685515 0.5768784
-37.30565453 37.305655 0.2645791
41.80830364 41.808304 0.2155067
171.5424911 171.54249 0.4859561
147.4627473 147.46275 0.3284248
10.2388242 10.238824 0.0246719
-175.9283527 175.92835 0.7454591
-35.77850582 35.778506 0.141417
156.2664483 156.26645 0.372063
130.8799345 130.87993 0.2596824
-121.7360197 121.73602 0.3549155
-148.5208059 148.52081 0.6429472

265.0803454
502333.2955
48
5.522507196
10465.27699
102.2999364
87.17022761
35.84399987
 Mô hình thô mở rộng
t Tháng Nhu cầu thực tế (At) extended Naive model (Ft) Sai số (et) |At-Ft| |(At-Ft)/At|
1 Jan 90
2 Feb 106
3 Mar 152 122 30 30 0.197368421
4 Apr 244 198 46 46 0.18852459
5 May 302 336 -34 34 0.112582781
6 Jun 274 360 -86 86 0.313868613
7 Jul 162 246 -84 84 0.518518519
8 Aug 194 50 144 144 0.742268041
9 Sep 312 226 86 86 0.275641026
10 Oct 359 430 -71 71 0.197771588
11 Nov 215 406 -191 191 0.888372093
12 Dec 126 71 55 55 0.436507937
13 Jan 94 37 57 57 0.606382979
14 Feb 125 62 63 63 0.504
15 Mar 147 156 -9 9 0.06122449
16 Apr 273 169 104 104 0.380952381
17 May 349 399 -50 50 0.143266476
18 Jun 310 425 -115 115 0.370967742
19 Jul 178 271 -93 93 0.52247191
20 Aug 182 46 136 136 0.747252747
21 Sep 323 186 137 137 0.424148607
22 Oct 400 464 -64 64 0.16
23 Nov 252 477 -225 225 0.892857143
24 Dec 179 104 75 75 0.418994413
25 Jan 131 106 25 25 0.190839695
26 Feb 142 83 59 59 0.415492958
27 Mar 186 153 33 33 0.177419355
28 Apr 307 230 77 77 0.250814332
29 May 398 428 -30 30 0.075376884
30 Jun 348 489 -141 141 0.405172414
31 Jul 217 298 -81 81 0.373271889
32 Aug 228 86 142 142 0.622807018
33 Sep 384 239 145 145 0.377604167
34 Oct 460 540 -80 80 0.173913043
35 Nov 273 536 -263 263 0.963369963
36 Dec 206 86 120 120 0.582524272
37 Jan 152 139 13 13 0.085526316
38 Feb 141 98 43 43 0.304964539
39 Mar 194 130 64 64 0.329896907
40 Apr 353 247 106 106 0.300283286
41 May 449 512 -63 63 0.140311804
42 Jun 415 545 -130 130 0.313253012
43 Jul 236 381 -145 145 0.61440678
44 Aug 253 57 196 196 0.774703557
45 Sep 420 270 150 150 0.357142857
46 Oct 504 587 -83 83 0.16468254
47 Nov 343 588 -245 245 0.714285714
48 Dec 231 182 49 49 0.212121212
49 Jan 119
SUM 128
SUMSQ 590502
# Obs. 46
Avg. error -2.7826087
MSE 12837
RMSE 113.300485
MAD 96.4782609
MAPE 39.1828848
 Alpha
0.1
p= 3

Bình quân di động kép San bằng s

MAt MA't Level at Trend (bt) Dự báo (Ft) Sai số (et) |At-Ft| |(At-Ft)/At| Level at
90
91.6
116 97.784
167.33333333333 113.09176
232.66666666667 172.00 293.33 60.67 133.9778264
273.33333333333 224.44 322.22 48.89 354.00 -80.00 80.00 0.29 151.655507896
246 250.67 241.33 -4.67 371.11 -209.11 209.11 1.29 157.588866163
210 243.11 176.89 -33.11 236.67 -42.67 42.67 0.22 166.172999943
222.66666666667 226.22 219.11 -3.56 143.78 168.22 168.22 0.54 185.976990344
288.33333333333 240.33 336.33 48.00 215.56 143.44 143.44 0.40 209.760811802
295.33333333333 268.78 321.89 26.56 384.33 -169.33 169.33 0.79 218.258642997
233.33333333333 272.33 194.33 -39.00 348.44 -222.44 222.44 1.77 216.974104642
145 224.56 65.44 -79.56 155.33 -61.33 61.33 0.65 211.708279075
115 164.44 65.56 -49.44 -14.11 139.11 139.11 1.11 208.891953275
122 127.33 116.67 -5.33 16.11 130.89 130.89 0.89 207.718340522
181.66666666667 139.56 223.78 42.11 111.33 161.67 161.67 0.59 218.65490564
256.33333333333 186.67 326.00 69.67 265.89 83.11 83.11 0.24 236.641265189
310.66666666667 249.56 371.78 61.11 395.67 -85.67 85.67 0.28 250.052576131
279 282.00 276.00 -3.00 432.89 -254.89 254.89 1.43 249.522230218
223.33333333333 271.00 175.67 -47.67 273.00 -91.00 91.00 0.50 248.729696593
227.66666666667 243.33 212.00 -15.67 128.00 195.00 195.00 0.60 261.449119366
301.66666666667 250.89 352.44 50.78 196.33 203.67 203.67 0.51 281.212108667
325 284.78 365.22 40.22 403.22 -151.22 151.22 0.60 285.386677952
277 301.22 252.78 -24.22 405.44 -226.44 226.44 1.27 281.509923529
187.33333333333 263.11 111.56 -75.78 228.56 -97.56 97.56 0.74 272.195745312
150.66666666667 205.00 96.33 -54.33 35.78 106.22 106.22 0.75 263.501027464
153 163.67 142.33 -10.67 42.00 144.00 144.00 0.77 258.860771127
211.66666666667 171.78 251.56 39.89 131.67 175.33 175.33 0.57 266.055932712
297 220.56 373.44 76.44 291.44 106.56 106.56 0.27 282.041018811
351 286.56 415.44 64.44 449.89 -101.89 101.89 0.29 292.587186112
321 323.00 319.00 -2.00 479.89 -262.89 262.89 1.21 289.532864822
264.33333333333 312.11 216.56 -47.78 317.00 -89.00 89.00 0.39 287.158647013
276.33333333333 287.22 265.44 -10.89 168.78 215.22 215.22 0.56 300.030264514
357.33333333333 299.33 415.33 58.00 254.56 205.44 205.44 0.45 320.054417621
372.33333333333 335.33 409.33 37.00 473.33 -200.33 200.33 0.73 320.77561124
313 347.56 278.44 -34.56 446.33 -240.33 240.33 1.17 314.246929385
210.33333333333 298.56 122.11 -88.22 243.89 -91.89 91.89 0.60 301.888646422
166.33333333333 229.89 102.78 -63.56 33.89 107.11 107.11 0.76 288.167305291
162.33333333333 179.67 145.00 -17.33 39.22 154.78 154.78 0.80 279.64642522
229.33333333333 186.00 272.67 43.33 127.67 225.33 225.33 0.64 287.021168904
332 241.22 422.78 90.78 316.00 133.00 133.00 0.30 303.91822653
405.66666666667 322.33 489.00 83.33 513.56 -98.56 98.56 0.24 317.176396129
366.66666666667 368.11 365.22 -1.44 572.33 -336.33 336.33 1.43 312.186984806
301.33333333333 357.89 244.78 -56.56 363.78 -110.78 110.78 0.44 308.634644768
303 323.67 282.33 -20.67 188.22 231.78 231.78 0.55 321.581192285
392.33333333333 332.22 452.44 60.11 261.67 242.33 242.33 0.48 342.617273129
422.33333333333 372.56 472.11 49.78 512.56 -169.56 169.56 0.49 347.063573156
359.33333333333 391.33 327.33 -32.00 521.89 -290.89 290.89 1.26 339.824607449

SUM 411.89
SUMSQ 1317225.94
# Obs. 43
Avg. error -9.58
MSE 30633.1614
RMSE 175.023317
MAD 161.78
MAPE 69.4376242

Dự báo Dự báo
t Tháng m Dự báo t
49 Jan 1 295.33 49
50 Feb 2 263.33 50
51 Mar 3 231.33 51
52 Apr 4 199.33 52
53 May 5 167.33 53
54 Jun 6 135.33 54
55 Jul 7 103.33 55
56 Aug 8 71.33 56
57 Sep 9 39.33 57
58 Oct 10 7.33 58
59 Nov 11 -24.67 59
60 Dec 12 -56.67 60
 Beta
0.1
t=1 tot hon

San bằng số mũ có điều chỉnh xu hướng t=1 San bằng số mũ có điều chỉnh xu hướng t=2
Trend (bt) Dự báo (Ft) Sai số (et) |(At-Ft)/At| Level at Trend (bt) Dự báo (Ft) Sai số (et)|(At-Ft)/At|
0
0.16 90 16 0.1509433962264 106 16
0.7624 91.76 60.24 0.3963157894737 125 16.3 122 30 0.1973684
2.216936 98.5464 145.4536 0.5961213114754 151.57 17.327 141.3 102.7 0.4209016
4.08384904 115.308696 186.6913 0.6181831258278 182.2073 18.65803 168.897 133.103 0.4407384
5.4432322856 138.06167544 135.93832 0.4961252721168 208.1788 19.389377 200.86533 73.13467 0.2669149
5.49224488378 157.098740182 4.9012598 0.030254690237 221.01136 18.733695 227.56817 -65.56817 0.4047418
5.80143377331 163.081111047 30.918889 0.1593757162514 235.17055 18.276244 239.74505 -45.74505 0.2357992
7.20168943615 171.974433716 140.02557 0.4487998919365 259.30211 18.861777 253.44679 58.553209 0.1876705
8.85990263835 193.17867978 165.82132 0.4618978279098 286.2475 19.670138 278.16389 80.836112 0.2251702
8.82369549394 218.620714441 -3.6207144 0.0168405322823 296.82587 18.760961 305.91764 -90.91764 0.4228727
7.81287210904 227.082338491 -101.08234 0.8022407816712 296.62815 16.865093 315.58683 -189.5868 1.5046574
6.50500234153 224.786976751 -130.78698 1.3913508164952 291.54392 14.670161 313.49324 -219.4932 2.3350345
5.57286952736 218.213281417 -93.213281 0.7457062513362 288.09267 12.85802 306.21408 -181.2141 1.4497126
4.89822129933 214.464822803 -67.464823 0.4589443728074 285.55562 11.318513 300.95069 -153.9507 1.0472836
5.50205568112 212.616561822 60.383438 0.2211847552317 294.48672 11.079771 296.87414 -23.87414 0.087451
6.75048606791 224.156961321 124.84304 0.3577164432072 309.90984 11.514107 305.56649 43.433507 0.1244513
7.41656855534 243.391751257 66.608249 0.2148653185273 320.28156 11.399867 321.42395 -11.42395 0.0368515
6.62187710848 257.469144686 -79.469145 0.4464558690237 316.31328 9.8630528 331.68142 -153.6814 0.8633788
5.88043603522 256.144107326 -74.144107 0.4073852050884 311.7587 8.4212894 326.17633 -144.1763 0.7921777
6.56433470893 254.610132629 68.389867 0.2117333355149 320.46199 8.4494895 320.17999 2.8200109 0.0087307
7.88420016819 268.013454075 131.98655 0.3299663648131 336.02033 9.1603748 328.91148 71.08852 0.1777213
7.51323707983 289.096308835 -37.096309 0.1472075747439 335.86264 8.2285677 345.18071 -93.18071 0.3697647
6.37423792951 292.899915032 -113.89992 0.6363123744791 327.58208 6.5776557 344.0912 -165.0912 0.9222972
4.80539631493 287.884161458 -156.88416 1.1975890187641 313.84376 4.5460583 334.15974 -203.1597 1.5508377
3.45538489866 277.001141627 -135.00114 0.9507122649804 300.75084 2.78216 318.38982 -176.3898 1.2421819
2.64582077503 266.956412363 -80.956412 0.4352495288342 291.7797 1.60683 303.533 -117.533 0.6318979
3.10075485601 261.506591902 45.493408 0.1481869970623 294.74788 1.7429647 293.38653 13.613469 0.0443435
4.38918798033 269.156687568 128.84331 0.323726915659 306.64176 2.7580563 296.49084 101.50916 0.2550481
5.00488591242 286.430206791 61.569793 0.1769246931286 313.25983 3.1440581 309.39981 38.600185 0.1109201
4.19896519218 297.592072025 -80.592072 0.3713920369795 306.4635 2.1500192 316.40389 -99.40389 0.4580824
3.54164689203 293.731830014 -65.73183 0.2882975000626 300.55217 1.343884 308.61352 -80.61352 0.3535681
4.47464395298 290.700293905 93.299706 0.2429679846227 310.10645 2.1649235 301.89605 82.103947 0.2138124
6.02959486831 304.504908467 155.49509 0.3380328076796 327.04423 3.6422098 312.27137 147.72863 0.3211492
5.49875474342 326.084012489 -53.084012 0.194446932194 324.9178 3.0653453 330.68644 -57.68644 0.2113057
4.29601108359 326.274365983 -120.27437 0.5838561455509 315.78483 1.8455139 327.98314 -121.9831 0.5921512
2.6305816789 318.542940469 -166.54294 1.0956772399258 301.06731 0.1892104 317.63034 -165.6303 1.0896733
0.99538939789 304.519228101 -163.51923 1.1597108375939 285.23087 -1.413355 301.25652 -160.2565 1.1365711
0.04376245101 289.162694689 -95.162695 0.4905293540647 274.83576 -2.31153 283.81751 -89.81751 0.4629769
0.7768605743 279.690187671 73.309812 0.2076765221793 280.57181 -1.506772 272.52423 80.475768 0.2279767
2.38888027952 287.798029478 161.20197 0.359024433234 296.05853 0.1925774 279.06504 169.93496 0.3784743
3.47580921142 306.30710681 108.69289 0.2619105860008 308.126 1.3800663 296.25111 118.74889 0.2861419
2.62928715802 320.65220534 -84.652205 0.3586957853395 302.15546 0.6450056 309.50607 -73.50607 0.3114664
2.01112443838 314.816271964 -61.816272 0.2443330907673 297.82042 0.147001 302.80046 -49.80046 0.1968398
3.10466674632 310.645769206 109.35423 0.260367216176 310.17068 1.3673268 297.96742 122.03258 0.2905538
4.897808156 324.685859032 179.31414 0.3557820257305 330.7842 3.2919468 311.538 192.462 0.381869
4.85265734316 347.515081285 -4.5150813 0.0131635022875 334.96854 3.3811853 334.07615 8.9238494 0.0260171
3.64349503816 351.916230499 -120.91623 0.5234468852784 327.61475 2.307688 338.34972 -107.3497 0.4647174

SUM 364.35 SUM 1369.23

SUMSQ 548244.77 SUMSQ 631175.42
# Obs. 47 # Obs. 46
Avg. error 7.75 Avg. error 29.77
MSE 11664.782 MSE 13721.205
RMSE 108.00362 RMSE 117.13755
MAD 96.71 MAD 102.45
MAPE 43.250271 MAPE 51.652752

Tháng m Dự báo
Jan 1 343.47
Feb 2 347.11
Mar 3 350.76
Apr 4 354.40
May 5 358.04
Jun 6 361.69
Jul 7 365.33
Aug 8 368.97
Sep 9 372.62
Oct 10 376.26
Nov 11 379.90
Dec 12 383.55
At-Ft)/At|