Year Month Sales Level Trend Seasonality

2003 Apr-03 10,281 0.703115

May-03 11,683 0.798997
Jun-03 14,042 0.960328
Jul-03 10,283 0.703251
Aug-03 9,522 0.651207
Sep-03 14,263 0.975442
Oct-03 20,264 1.385849
Nov-03 15,778 1.079053
Dec-03 12,758 0.872516
2004 Jan-04 14,297 0.977768
Feb-04 17,521 1.198256
Mar-04 24,773 14,622 0 1.694218
Apr-04 15,714 16892.4515 29.1635679 0.908739
May-04 17,352 18330.6668 47.2632644 0.932638
Jun-04 20,901 19372.9554 60.0446656 1.067654
Jul-04 12,065 18763.978 51.4508751 0.648692
Aug-04 13,452 19356.5306 58.4014904 0.690818
Sep-04 22,018 20342.6393 70.3181708 1.072237
Oct-04 27,631 20273.3927 68.5254196 1.365090
Nov-04 21,799 20300.8006 67.9972514 1.074297
Dec-04 16,209 19842.4219 61.235793 0.822152
2005 Jan-05 16,249 18938.4002 48.8367676 0.869330
Feb-05 18,867 18034.7123 36.6013001 1.060547
Mar-05 23,857 16899 21.5425731 1.438479
Apr-05 16,828 17389.8983 27.5715934 0.962108
May-05 19,062 18305.2008 38.9747656 1.031054
Jun-05 22,724 19207.9726 50.0705005 1.172127
Jul-05 15,320 20538.7267 66.5212694 0.736706
Aug-05 16,936 21754.2709 81.280818 0.770213
Sep-05 21,986 21444.5483 76.2582597 1.029697
Oct-05 30,998 21869.5298 80.7377157 1.412454
Nov-05 22,359 21616.0193 76.444196 1.038151
Dec-05 20,860 22773.7176 90.3332326 0.907088
2006 Jan-06 24,057 24277.0331 108.483418 0.979426
Feb-06 23,506 23732.7975 100.099045 0.997079
Mar-06 27,985 22546.4553 83.5743172 1.259887
Apr-06 24,416 23437.3234 93.9442498 1.034218
May-06 24,262 23531.2677 93.9442508 1.031054
Jun-06 29,924 24184.7755 101.132014 1.231138
Jul-06 21,738 25819.9825 120.837673 0.831948
Aug-06 20,417 26107.5458 122.979314 0.780915
Sep-06 33,280 28019.7984 145.963071 1.172773
Oct-06 35,817 27340.7817 135.365956 1.319717
Nov-06 26,057 26777.8189 126.395712 0.979241
Dec-06 23,742 26689.6247 123.639239 0.891218
2007 Jan-07 26,259 26812.4844 123.629225 0.979364
Feb-07 23,995 26092.6036 112.794083 0.926942
Mar-07 28,421 25133.8231 99.029383 1.143007
Apr-07 22,357 24170.5281 85.383505 0.935311
May-07 23,488 23822.4281 79.8152784 0.990230
Jun-07 29,631 23950.9415 80.4408195 1.236584
Jul-07 20,594 24243.6868 83.1679358 0.847801
Aug-07 20,051 24723.3428 88.2609449 0.808166
Sep-07 27,466 24402.6383 83.0076591 1.130005
Oct-07 34,778 25034.2016 90.0540237 1.382641
Nov-07 25,839 25495.2085 94.8190254 1.010243
Dec-07 23,053 25671.3599 95.8637644 0.897362
2008 Jan-08 23,548 25260.9583 89.3606327 0.936655
Feb-08 22,619 25071.6046 85.7804626 0.904520
Mar-08 28,817 25173.304 85.9849459 1.144580
Apr-08 24,644 25579.3124 90.0957443 0.960773
May-08 27,949 26420.2236 99.7401962 1.051462
Jun-08 32,737 26506.379 99.5656957 1.235205
Jul-08 21,654 26293.1525 95.5477843 0.825855
Aug-08 22,718 26894.6211 102.046491 0.841246
Sep-08 28,855 26567.2797 96.5308732 1.090265
Oct-08 33,205 25885.723 86.5361032 1.292208
Nov-08 20,983 24443.7993 66.9025734 0.872789
Dec-08 17,751 23121.1073 49.0528098 0.780010
2009 Jan-09 22,114 23299.2622 50.7111646 0.947948
Feb-09 20,025 22994.1072 46.139956 0.874060
Mar-09 31,286 24301.8544 62.3456832 1.273873
Apr-09 27,039 25474.4829 76.6076028 1.051889
May-09 31,113 26737.8747 91.8522056 1.153013
Jun-09 39,396 28317.8018 110.966979 1.376443
Jul-09 27,219 29759.7198 128.063448 0.906223
Aug-09 24,434 29640.1633 124.882695 0.825953
Sep-09 41,338 32159.831 155.644435 1.266922
Oct-09 43,171 32636.6868 159.770492 1.319882
Nov-09 27,743 32499.7377 155.959038 0.855451
Dec-09 27,424 33391.0838 165.405309 0.817389
2010 Jan-10 35,941 34836.9715 181.853492 1.023764
Feb-10 32,140 35533.63 188.466319 0.901614
Mar-10 43,245 35200.7251 181.769148 1.232818
Apr-10 38,301 35684.8821 185.653411 1.071284
May-10 43,245 36351.0956 191.826352 1.186180
Jun-10 38,301 33981.73 158.927064 1.150707
Jul-10 31,198 34224.618 160.005568 0.911060
Aug-10 29,763 34869.4579 166.233412 0.850942
Sep-10 42,042 34491.7307 159.246073 1.223446
Oct-10 55,946 36924.0196 188.443997 1.496681
Nov-10 37,044 38931.5192 211.810318 0.942424
Dec-10 35,298 40330.5182 227.060117 0.869744
2011 Jan-11 42,838 40935.4417 231.913886 1.044327
Feb-11 41,784 42688.2264 251.449933 0.971510
Mar-11 45,500 41167.2394 228.682443 1.117323
Apr-11 42,513 40892.9708 222.221885 1.042614
May-11 41,874 39407.0246 200.279948 1.074300
Jun-11 48,716 40408.9663 210.577536 1.200380
Jul-11 38,577 41125.9231 217.082131 0.935469
Aug-11 36,407 41766.4978 222.522021 0.869717
Sep-11 56,864 43308.1341 239.466444 1.304532
Oct-11 67,886 44079.4481 246.298187 1.535974
Nov-11 39,735 43690.1597 238.133884 0.912592
Dec-11 36,604 43386.971 231.180433 0.846132
2012 Jan-12 42,277 42696.839 219.345895 0.995294
Feb-12 36,701 41406.265 199.950516 0.894423
Mar-12 43,541 40831.3549 189.997196 1.071186
 Absolute
Forecast Deviation

Mean Absoulute Dif2798.592

Alpha 0.29382
Beta 0.01285
Gamma 0.90534

10281 5433
13520.3189 3831.68112
17648.8458 3252.15417
Initial Seasonality at t = Sales Value at
13666.2837 1601.28371 t/Average Sales Value in a year
12252.7351 1199.26488 Initial Level at t = Sales Value at
18938.1479 3079.85213 t/Seasonality at t
28289.2773 658.277304
Forecast at t + 1 = (Level at t + Trend at
21950.0038 151.003808 t)*Seasonality at t+1-m
17772.0997 1563.09967
19461.1525 3212.1525 Level at time, t = alpha * (Sales Value at
22751.5717 3884.57175 t/Seasonality at t-m) + (1-alpha)*(Level at t - 1 +
Trend at t - 1)
30616.7488 6759.74876
15376.3599 1451.64008 Seasonality at time, t = gamma*(Sales
16244.1905 2817.80952 value at t/Level at time, t) + (1-
19585.23 3138.77001 gamma)*Seasonality at t-m
12492.5333 2827.46675 Trend at time, t = beta * (Level at time, t -
14234.4717 2701.52834 Level at time, t-1) + (1-beta)*Trend at time,
23412.884 1426.88402 t-1
29377.8342 1620.16577
23581.1116 1222.11159
17834.5002 3025.49984
19876.4004 4180.59958
25861.9904 2355.99042
34283.1172 6298.1172
21772.5394 2643.46059
24262 0.00027118
27691.7569 2232.24313
17891.5686 3846.43138
19979.9508 437.049182
27009.484 6270.51604
39782.8369 3965.83686
28524.3897 2467.38971
24404.4848 662.484848
26261.5987 2.5986629
26857.4462 2862.44617
33015.8512 4594.8512
26096.2669 3739.26694
25009.1468 1521.14677
29426.9506 204.04943
19992.8638 601.136182
18997.2165 1053.78353
29098.3668 1632.36678
32314.1239 2463.87615
24602.6954 1236.30461
22806.3024 246.697582
25235.4833 1687.48335
23498.2843 879.284328
28755.073 61.926974
23625.2797 1018.7203
25418.6154 2530.38456
32794.1733 57.1733056
22556.5414 902.541379
21326.4451 1391.55491
30506.3824 1651.38244
36866.4664 3661.46636
26238.2967 5255.29673
21994.9789 4243.97887
 21702.443 411.556979
21120.525 1095.52502
26371.4062 4914.59375
23408.4572 3630.54281
26865.9969 4247.00312
33140.2227 6255.77726
23478.0394 3740.96057
25142.9664 708.966413
32451.8002 8886.19983
41758.3299 1412.67007
28624.4 881.400005
25471.7595 1952.24051
31809.8077 4131.19231
30608.5552 1531.44477
45505.4277 2260.42772
37218.4414 1082.55861
41359.1847 1885.81528
50299.2419 11998.2419
30939.0419 258.958138
28400.0932 1362.90678
44387.4959 2345.49588
45735.1952 10210.8048
31747.8756 5296.1244
31995.3252 3302.67483
41521.4055 1316.59453
37117.0789 4666.92109
52936.8182 7436.81824
44346.7811 1833.78112
48770.02 6896.02001
45576.4077 3139.59234
37006.853 1570.14701
35180.5122 1226.48775
51371.3154 5492.6846
65176.8466 2709.15342
41773.629 2038.62898
38206.3778 1602.37784
45551.6193 3274.61928
41693.505 4992.50503
46487.5901 2946.59008
42769.4306
2798.59172
Year Month Sales of Tractor Industry Level Trend

2003 Apr-03 4698

May-03 4605
Jun-03 4859
Jul-03 4136
Aug-03 3872
Sep-03 5938
Oct-03 8790
Nov-03 6825
Dec-03 4858
2004 Jan-04 5907
Feb-04 6386
Mar-04 9085 5,830 0
Apr-04 6492 5829.91667 0
May-04 6832 5829.91667 0
Jun-04 8867 5829.91667 0
Jul-04 4998 5829.91667 0
Aug-04 5305 5829.91667 0
Sep-04 7618 5829.91667 0
Oct-04 11443 5829.91667 0
Nov-04 8716 5829.91667 0
Dec-04 6119 5829.91667 0
2005 Jan-05 7408 5829.91667 0
Feb-05 7493 5829.91667 0
Mar-05 8541 5829.91667 0
Apr-05 8029 5829.91667 0
May-05 8650 5829.91667 0
Jun-05 9960 5829.91667 0
Jul-05 7152 5829.91667 0
Aug-05 7322 5829.91667 0
Sep-05 9239 5829.91667 0
Oct-05 14123 5829.91667 0
Nov-05 9566 5829.91667 0
Dec-05 7341 5829.91667 0
2006 Jan-06 9404 5829.91667 0
Feb-06 8613 5829.91667 0
Mar-06 9425 5829.91667 0
Apr-06 10905 5829.91667 0
May-06 9842 5829.91667 0
Jun-06 12259 5829.91667 0
Jul-06 9285 5829.91667 0
Aug-06 7950 5829.91667 0
Sep-06 11482 5829.91667 0
Oct-06 15817 5829.91667 0
Nov-06 10288 5829.91667 0
Dec-06 8743 5829.91667 0
2007 Jan-07 10419 5829.91667 0
Feb-07 8801 5829.91667 0
Mar-07 8631 5829.91667 0
Apr-07 9682 5829.91667 0
May-07 9052 5829.91667 0
Jun-07 11477 5829.91667 0
Jul-07 8242 5829.91667 0
Aug-07 7674 5829.91667 0
Sep-07 10339 5829.91667 0
Oct-07 13919 5829.91667 0
Nov-07 10531 5829.91667 0
Dec-07 8435 5829.91667 0
2008 Jan-08 9750 5829.91667 0
Feb-08 8477 5829.91667 0
Mar-08 9814 5829.91667 0
Apr-08 10684 5829.91667 0
May-08 11693 5829.91667 0
Jun-08 14439 5829.91667 0
Jul-08 9081 5829.91667 0
Aug-08 9781 5829.91667 0
Sep-08 10307 5829.91667 0
Oct-08 14800 5829.91667 0
Nov-08 7960 5829.91667 0
 Dec-08 6858 5829.91667 0
2009 Jan-09 9438 5829.91667 0
Feb-09 8487 5829.91667 0
Mar-09 10609 5829.91667 0
Apr-09 11282 5829.91667 0
May-09 12870 5829.91667 0
Jun-09 17811 5829.91667 0
Jul-09 12128 5829.91667 0
Aug-09 10161 5829.91667 0
Sep-09 16359 5829.91667 0
Oct-09 17796 5829.91667 0
Nov-09 11604 5829.91667 0
Dec-09 11517 5829.91667 0
2010 Jan-10 15925 5829.91667 0
Feb-10 13532 5829.91667 0
Mar-10 14648 5829.91667 0
Apr-10 15697 5829.91667 0
May-10 16653 5829.91667 0
Jun-10 15411 5829.91667 0
Jul-10 13534 5829.91667 0
Aug-10 12454 5829.91667 0
Sep-10 16300 5829.91667 0
Oct-10 23378 5829.91667 0
Nov-10 16975 5829.91667 0
Dec-10 15135 5829.91667 0
2011 Jan-11 19430 5829.91667 0
Feb-11 17534 5829.91667 0
Mar-11 17822 5829.91667 0
Apr-11 17740 5829.91667 0
May-11 17952 5829.91667 0
Jun-11 21552 5829.91667 0
Jul-11 15699 5829.91667 0
Aug-11 15059 5829.91667 0
Sep-11 23508 5829.91667 0
Oct-11 30519 5829.91667 0
 Nov-11 16175 5829.91667 0
Dec-11 15315 5829.91667 0
2012 Jan-12 17950 5829.91667 0
Feb-12 13534 5829.91667 0
Mar-12 15054 5829.91667 0
Seasonality Forecast Absolute
Deviation
0.805843
0.789891
0.833460
0.709444
0.664160
1.018539
1.507740
1.170686
0.833288 Mean Abso 6176.5
1.013222
1.095384 Alpha 0.26677
1.558341 Beta 0.00123
0.805843 4698 1,794 Gamma 0.84109
0.789891 4605 2,227
0.833460 4859 4,008
0.709444 4136 862
0.664160 3872 1,433 Initial Seasonality at t = Sales Value at t/Average Sa
in a year
1.018539 5938 1,680
1.507740 8790 2,653 Forecast at t + 1 = (Level at t + Trend at t)*Seasona
1.170686 6825 1,891 m
0.833288 4858 1,261
1.013222 5907 1,501 Trend at time, t = beta * (Level at time, t - Level at ti
(1-beta)*Trend at time, t-1
1.095384 6386 1,107
1.558341 9085 544
Seasonality at time, t = gamma*(Sales value at t/L
0.805843 4698 3,331 time, t) + (1-gamma)*Seasonality at t-m
0.789891 4605 4,045
0.833460 4859 5,101 Level at time, t = alpha * (Sales Value at t/Seasonality at t
0.709444 4136 3,016 alpha)*(Level at t - 1 + Trend at t - 1)
0.664160 3872 3,450
1.018539 5938 3,301 Initial Level at t = Sales Value at t/Seasonality
1.507740 8790 5,333
1.170686 6825 2,741
0.833288 4858 2,483
1.013222 5907 3,497
1.095384 6386 2,227
1.558341 9085 340
0.805843 4698 6,207
0.789891 4605 5,237
0.833460 4859 7,400
0.709444 4136 5,149
0.664160 3872 4,078
1.018539 5938 5,544
1.507740 8790 7,027
1.170686 6825 3,463
0.833288 4858 3,885
1.013222 5907 4,512
1.095384 6386 2,415
1.558341 9085 454
0.805843 4698 4,984
0.789891 4605 4,447
0.833460 4859 6,618
0.709444 4136 4,106
0.664160 3872 3,802
1.018539 5938 4,401
1.507740 8790 5,129
1.170686 6825 3,706
0.833288 4858 3,577
1.013222 5907 3,843
1.095384 6386 2,091
1.558341 9085 729
0.805843 4698 5,986
0.789891 4605 7,088
0.833460 4859 9,580
0.709444 4136 4,945
0.664160 3872 5,909
1.018539 5938 4,369
1.507740 8790 6,010
1.170686 6825 1,135
0.833288 4858 2,000
1.013222 5907 3,531
1.095384 6386 2,101
1.558341 9085 1,524
0.805843 4698 6,584
0.789891 4605 8,265
0.833460 4859 12,952
0.709444 4136 7,992
0.664160 3872 6,289
1.018539 5938 10,421
1.507740 8790 9,006
1.170686 6825 4,779
0.833288 4858 6,659
1.013222 5907 10,018
1.095384 6386 7,146
1.558341 9085 5,563
0.805843 4698 10,999
0.789891 4605 12,048
0.833460 4859 10,552
0.709444 4136 9,398
0.664160 3872 8,582
1.018539 5938 10,362
1.507740 8790 14,588
1.170686 6825 10,150
0.833288 4858 10,277
1.013222 5907 13,523
1.095384 6386 11,148
1.558341 9085 8,737
0.805843 4698 13,042
0.789891 4605 13,347
0.833460 4859 16,693
0.709444 4136 11,563
0.664160 3872 11,187
1.018539 5938 17,570
1.507740 8790 21,729
1.170686 6825 9,350
0.833288 4858 10,457
1.013222 5907 12,043
1.095384 6386 7,148
1.558341 9085 5,969
4698
6176.5
s Value at t/Average Sales Value
a year
+ Trend at t)*Seasonality at t+1-
m

el at time, t - Level at time, t-1) +

nd at time, t-1

mma*(Sales value at t/Level at

a)*Seasonality at t-m

Value at t/Seasonality at t-m) + (1-

- 1 + Trend at t - 1)

Value at t/Seasonality at t