Month S. No.

Sales (In Billions) SMA WMA ES R

Apr-14 1 6 #N/A 5.495
May-14 2 2.2 #N/A 6 5.563913
Jun-14 3 5 #N/A 2.96 5.632826
Jul-14 4 8.5 4.4 4.36 4.592 5.701739
Aug-14 5 7 5.233333 6.19 7.7184 5.770652
Sep-14 6 6.1 6.833333 7.05 7.14368 5.839565
Oct-14 7 6.7 7.2 6.85 6.308736 5.908478
Nov-14 8 4.6 6.6 6.58 6.621747 5.977391
Dec-14 9 5.1 5.8 5.53 5.004349 6.046304
Jan-15 10 7.2 5.466667 5.27 5.08087 6.115217
Feb-15 11 6.1 5.633333 6.05 6.776174 6.18413
Mar-15 12 5.1 6.133333 6.23 6.235235 6.253043
Apr-15 13 5.7 6.133333 5.82 5.327047 6.321957
May-15 14 7.1 5.633333 5.6 5.625409 6.39087
Jun-15 15 5.6 5.966667 6.28 6.805082 6.459783
Jul-15 16 6.2 6.133333 6.07 5.841016 6.528696
Aug-15 17 6.6 6.3 6.2 6.128203 6.597609
Sep-15 18 7.7 6.133333 6.28 6.505641 6.666522
Oct-15 19 8.2 6.833333 7.07 7.461128 6.735435
Nov-15 20 8.4 7.5 7.73 8.052226 6.804348
Dec-15 21 8.8 8.1 8.2 8.330445 6.873261
Jan-16 22 7 8.466667 8.56 8.706089 6.942174
Feb-16 23 5.5 8.066667 7.82 7.341218 7.011087
Mar-16 24 4.5 7.1 6.61 5.868244 7.08
Apr-16 25 6.2875 5.666667 5.3 4.773649 7.148913

Chart Title
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

Sales (In Billions) SMA WMA

ES R
SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.321229
R Square 0.103188
Adjusted R Square 0.062424
Standard Error 1.468841
Observations 24

ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 1 5.461359 5.461359 2.531342 0.125873
Residual 22 47.46489 2.157495
Total 23 52.92625

Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95.0%
Upper 95.0%
Intercept 5.426087 0.618897 8.76735 1.249E-08 4.142573 6.709601 4.142573 6.709601
X Variable 1 0.068913 0.043314 1.591019 0.125873 -0.020914 0.15874 -0.020914 0.15874

RESIDUAL OUTPUT

Observation Predicted Y Residuals

1 5.495 0.505
2 5.563913 -3.363913
3 5.632826 -0.632826
4 5.701739 2.798261
5 5.770652 1.229348
6 5.839565 0.260435
7 5.908478 0.791522
8 5.977391 -1.377391
9 6.046304 -0.946304
10 6.115217 1.084783
11 6.18413 -0.08413
12 6.253043 -1.153043
13 6.321957 -0.621957
14 6.39087 0.70913
15 6.459783 -0.859783
16 6.528696 -0.328696
17 6.597609 0.002391
18 6.666522 1.033478
19 6.735435 1.464565
20 6.804348 1.595652
21 6.873261 1.926739
22 6.942174 0.057826
23 7.011087 -1.511087
24 7.08 -2.58
Upper 95.0%
 SMA Errors
Month S. No. Sales (In Billions) SMA WMA ES R BIAS MAD
Jul-14 4 8.5 4.4 4.36 4.592 5.701739 4.1 4.1
Aug-14 5 7 5.233333 6.19 7.7184 5.770652 1.766667 1.766667
Sep-14 6 6.1 6.833333 7.05 7.14368 5.839565 -0.733333 0.733333
Oct-14 7 6.7 7.2 6.85 6.308736 5.908478 -0.5 0.5
Nov-14 8 4.6 6.6 6.58 6.621747 5.977391 -2 2
Dec-14 9 5.1 5.8 5.53 5.004349 6.046304 -0.7 0.7
Jan-15 10 7.2 5.466667 5.27 5.08087 6.115217 1.733333 1.733333
Feb-15 11 6.1 5.633333 6.05 6.776174 6.18413 0.466667 0.466667
Mar-15 12 5.1 6.133333 6.23 6.235235 6.253043 -1.033333 1.033333
Apr-15 13 5.7 6.133333 5.82 5.327047 6.321957 -0.433333 0.433333
May-15 14 7.1 5.633333 5.6 5.625409 6.39087 1.466667 1.466667
Jun-15 15 5.6 5.966667 6.28 6.805082 6.459783 -0.366667 0.366667
Jul-15 16 6.2 6.133333 6.07 5.841016 6.528696 0.066667 0.066667
Aug-15 17 6.6 6.3 6.2 6.128203 6.597609 0.3 0.3
Sep-15 18 7.7 6.133333 6.28 6.505641 6.666522 1.566667 1.566667
Oct-15 19 8.2 6.833333 7.07 7.461128 6.735435 1.366667 1.366667
Nov-15 20 8.4 7.5 7.73 8.052226 6.804348 0.9 0.9
Dec-15 21 8.8 8.1 8.2 8.330445 6.873261 0.7 0.7
Jan-16 22 7 8.466667 8.56 8.706089 6.942174 -1.466667 1.466667
Feb-16 23 5.5 8.066667 7.82 7.341218 7.011087 -2.566667 2.566667
Mar-16 24 4.5 7.1 6.61 5.868244 7.08 -2.6 2.6
0.096825 1.277778
SMA Errors WMA Errors ES Errors
MSE MAPE BIAS MAD MSE MAPE BIAS MAD MSE MAPE
16.81 48.23529 4.14 4.14 17.1396 48.70588 3.908 3.908 15.27246 45.97647
3.121111 25.2381 0.81 0.81 0.6561 11.57143 -0.7184 0.7184 0.516099 10.26286
0.537778 12.02186 -0.95 0.95 0.9025 15.57377 -1.04368 1.04368 1.089268 17.10951
0.25 7.462687 -0.15 0.15 0.0225 2.238806 0.391264 0.391264 0.153088 5.839761
4 43.47826 -1.98 1.98 3.9204 43.04348 -2.021747 2.021747 4.087462 43.95103
0.49 13.72549 -0.43 0.43 0.1849 8.431373 0.095651 0.095651 0.009149 1.875501
3.004444 24.07407 1.93 1.93 3.7249 26.80556 2.11913 2.11913 4.490712 29.43236
0.217778 7.650273 0.05 0.05 0.0025 0.819672 -0.676174 0.676174 0.457211 11.08482
1.067778 20.26144 -1.13 1.13 1.2769 22.15686 -1.135235 1.135235 1.288758 22.25951
0.187778 7.602339 -0.12 0.12 0.0144 2.105263 0.372953 0.372953 0.139094 6.543036
2.151111 20.65728 1.5 1.5 2.25 21.12676 1.474591 1.474591 2.174417 20.76888
0.134444 6.547619 -0.68 0.68 0.4624 12.14286 -1.205082 1.205082 1.452222 21.51932
0.004444 1.075269 0.13 0.13 0.0169 2.096774 0.358984 0.358984 0.128869 5.790058
0.09 4.545455 0.4 0.4 0.16 6.060606 0.471797 0.471797 0.222592 7.148435
2.454444 20.34632 1.42 1.42 2.0164 18.44156 1.194359 1.194359 1.426494 15.51116
1.867778 16.66667 1.13 1.13 1.2769 13.78049 0.738872 0.738872 0.545932 9.010633
0.81 10.71429 0.67 0.67 0.4489 7.97619 0.347774 0.347774 0.120947 4.140171
0.49 7.954545 0.6 0.6 0.36 6.818182 0.469555 0.469555 0.220482 5.335851
2.151111 20.95238 -1.56 1.56 2.4336 22.28571 -1.706089 1.706089 2.91074 24.3727
6.587778 46.66667 -2.32 2.32 5.3824 42.18182 -1.841218 1.841218 3.390083 33.47669
6.76 57.77778 -2.11 2.11 4.4521 46.88889 -1.368244 1.368244 1.87209 30.40541
2.532751 20.174 0.064286 1.152857 2.243062 18.15485 0.010812 1.126609 1.998484 17.70544
1.591462 1.497686 1.413678
 R Errors
BIAS MAD MSE MAPE
2.798261 2.798261 7.830264 32.92072
1.229348 1.229348 1.511296 17.56211
0.260435 0.260435 0.067826 4.269423
0.791522 0.791522 0.626507 11.81376
-1.377391 1.377391 1.897207 29.94329
-0.946304 0.946304 0.895492 18.55499
1.084783 1.084783 1.176753 15.06643
-0.08413 0.08413 0.007078 1.379187
-1.153043 1.153043 1.329509 22.6087
-0.621957 0.621957 0.38683 10.91152
0.70913 0.70913 0.502866 9.987753
-0.859783 0.859783 0.739226 15.35326
-0.328696 0.328696 0.108041 5.301543
0.002391 0.002391 5.718E-06 0.036232
1.033478 1.033478 1.068077 13.4218
1.464565 1.464565 2.144951 17.86055
1.595652 1.595652 2.546106 18.99586
1.926739 1.926739 3.712324 21.89476
0.057826 0.057826 0.003344 0.826087
-1.511087 1.511087 2.283384 27.47431
-2.58 2.58 6.6564 57.33333
0.166273 1.067453 1.690166 16.83408
1.300064
Quarter S. No.
14-Apr to 14 Jun
14-July to 14 Sep
14-Oct to 14-Dec
15-Jan to 15-Mar
15-Apr to 15 Jun
15-July to 15-Sep
15-Oct to 15-Dec
16-Jan to 16-Mar
16-Apr to 16-Jun
Sales (In Billions) SMA WMA ES R
1 13.2 #N/A 16.45
2 21.6 #N/A 13.2 17.13929
3 16.4 #N/A 19.92 17.82857
4 18.4 17.06667 17.32 17.104 18.51786
5 18.4 18.8 18.44 18.1408 19.20714
6 20.5 17.73333 18 18.34816 19.89643
7 25.4 19.1 19.45 20.06963 20.58571
8 17 21.43333 22.53 24.33393 21.275
9 18.8625 20.96667 20.22 18.46679 21.96429

Chart Title
30

25

20

15

10

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Observation
Sales (In Billions) SMA WMA
ES R
SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.458461
R Square 0.210186
Adjusted R 0.078551
Standard E 3.535155
Observatio 8

ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 1 19.95482 19.95482 1.596728 0.253244
Residual 6 74.98393 12.49732
Total 7 94.93875

Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95.0%
Upper 95.0%
Intercept 15.76071 2.754571 5.721659 0.001236 9.020523 22.50091 9.020523 22.50091
S. No. 0.689286 0.545486 1.263617 0.253244 -0.645471 2.024043 -0.645471 2.024043

RESIDUAL OUTPUT

Observation
Predicted Sales (In Billions)
Residuals
1 16.45 -3.25
2 17.13929 4.460714
3 17.82857 -1.428571
4 18.51786 -0.117857
5 19.20714 -0.807143
6 19.89643 0.603571
7 20.58571 4.814286
8 21.275 -4.275
 SMA Errors
Month S. No. Sales (In Billions) WMA ES R BIAS
15-Jan to 15-Mar 4 18.4 17.06667 17.32 17.104 18.51786 1.333333
15-Apr to 15 Jun 5 18.4 18.8 18.44 18.1408 19.20714 -0.4
15-July to 15-Sep 6 20.5 17.73333 18 18.34816 19.89643 2.766667
15-Oct to 15-Dec 7 25.4 19.1 19.45 20.06963 20.58571 6.3
16-Jan to 16-Mar 8 17 21.43333 22.53 24.33393 21.275 -4.433333
1.113333
 SMA Errors WMA Errors ES Errors
MAD MSE MAPE BIAS MAD MSE MAPE BIAS MAD MSE
1.333333 1.777778 7.246377 1.08 1.08 1.1664 5.869565 1.296 1.296 1.679616
0.4 0.16 2.173913 -0.04 0.04 0.0016 0.217391 0.2592 0.2592 0.067185
2.766667 7.654444 13.49593 2.5 2.5 6.25 12.19512 2.15184 2.15184 4.630415
6.3 39.69 24.80315 5.95 5.95 35.4025 23.4252 5.330368 5.330368 28.41282
4.433333 19.65444 26.07843 -5.53 5.53 30.5809 32.52941 -7.333926 7.333926 53.78648
3.046667 13.78733 14.75956 0.792 3.02 14.68028 14.84734 0.340696 3.274267 17.7153
3.71313 3.831485 4.208955
Errors R Errors
MAPE BIAS MAD MSE MAPE
7.043478 -0.117857 0.117857 0.01389 0.640528
1.408696 -0.807143 0.807143 0.65148 4.386646
10.49678 0.603571 0.603571 0.364298 2.944251
20.9857 4.814286 4.814286 23.17735 18.95388
43.14074 -4.275 4.275 18.27563 25.14706
16.61508 0.043571 2.123571 8.496528 10.41447
2.91488