Steady State and the Long Term

Regular Transition Matrices

A transition matrix whose columns add to 1 and whose powers never contain any zero elements.
Regular transition matrices will always have steady states. Other matrices, may not have a steady state.

Steady State / Equilibrium State Matrix / Long Term

Recognised by no noticeable change from one state matrix to the next. That is 𝑆 = 𝑆 for a large 𝑛.

Determining the Steady State using State Matrices

The steady state usually occurs around 𝑆 . Check 𝑆 = 𝑆 , if not check 𝑆 =𝑆 , etc.

Example
0.7 0.4 200
𝑇= , 𝑆 =
0.3 0.6 600

0.7 0.4 200 457.14 0.7 0.4 200 457.14

𝑆 =𝑇 𝑆 = = , 𝑆 =𝑇 𝑆 = =
0.3 0.6 600 342.86 0.3 0.6 600 342.86

457.14
Since 𝑆 = 𝑆 , the steady state is approximately
342.86

Example VCAA 2013 Question 3 𝑐ℎ𝑜𝑜𝑠𝑒 𝑡𝑜𝑑𝑎𝑦

A coffee shop sells three types of coffee, Brazilian (B), 𝐵 𝐼 𝐾
Italian (I) and Kenyan (K). The regular customers buy one 0.8 0.1 0.1 𝐵
cup of coffee each per day and choose the type of coffee 0 0.8 0.1 𝐼 𝑐ℎ𝑜𝑠𝑒 𝑡𝑜𝑚𝑜𝑟𝑟𝑜𝑤
they buy according to the following transition matrix, T. 0.2 0.1 0.8 𝐾

On a particular day, 84 customers bought Brazilian coffee, 96 bought Italian coffee and 81 bought
Kenyan coffee. If these same customers continue to buy one cup of coffee each per day, the number of
these customers who are expected to buy each of the three types of coffee in the long term is
84 0.8 0.1 0.1 84 87 0.8 0.1 0.1 84 87
𝑆 = 96 , 𝑆 = 0 0.8 0.1 96 = 58 , 𝑆 = 0 0.8 0.1 96 = 58
81 0.2 0.1 0.8 81 116 0.2 0.1 0.8 81 116

Therefore in the long term 87 will buy Brazilian, 58 will buy Italian, and 116 will buy Kenyan.

Determining the Steady State without a State Matrix

For the transition matrix, 𝑇, the steady state matrix, 𝑋, must satisify the matrix equation: 𝑇𝑋 = 𝑋
With one steady state value, we can setup a matrix equation that can be used to find the steady state.

Example VCAA 2019 NHT Question 8 𝑡ℎ𝑖𝑠 𝑤𝑒𝑒𝑘

A farm contains four water sources, 𝑃, 𝑄, 𝑅 and 𝑆. 𝑃 𝑄 𝑅 𝑆
Sheep on the farm are also free to move between 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 𝑃
𝑇=
the four water sources. The change in the number of 0.2 0.1 0.5 0.3 𝑄
𝑛𝑒𝑥𝑡 𝑤𝑒𝑒𝑘
sheep at each water source from week to week is 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.2 𝑅
shown in matrix 𝑇 below. 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.4 𝑆
In the long term, 635 sheep are expected to be at 𝑆 each week.
In the long term, the number of sheep expected to be at 𝑄 each week is closest to 527
Use the solve function on the CAS to determine 𝑃, 𝑄, and 𝑅: Alternatively:
0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 𝑃 𝑃 𝑃 = 494 0.24341 𝑃
0.2 0.1 0.5 0.3 𝑄 𝑄 𝑄 = 528 0.26027 𝑄
= ⇒ 𝑇 → ⋯
0.1 0.3 0.1 0.2 𝑅 𝑅 𝑅 = 372 0.18335 𝑅
0.3 0.3 0.2 0.4 635 635 𝑆 = 635 0.31296 𝑆

0.31296 × total sheep = 635

⇒ total sheep = 2029
steady 𝑄 = 0.26027 × 2029 = 528