ANTIQUITY, XLVIII, I974

Drought and the decline of Mycenae

R. A. BRYSON, H . H . L A M B a n d DAVID L. D O N L E Y

This article applies a modern scientific technique to throwing new light on the probable climatic
patterns at the time of the decline of Mycenae. Of itsjoint authors, Professor H. H. Lamb has
written for us before: first in 1967 when he reviewed Rhys Carpenter’s book referred to below.
For many years Professor Lamb was in charge of the Meteorological OJice’s research on the
problem of climatic variation and climatic history. In I972 he founded the Climatic Research
Unit in the School of Environmental Sciences at the University of East Anglia, Norwich, where
climatic history is one of its major interests. Professor Reid Bryson, whom we are very glad to
welcome to ourpages, is Director of the Institute for Environmental Studies at the University of
Wisconsin in Madison, and Professor in the Department of Meteorology and Geography there.
The history of climate, its impact on man and of man on climate, and the development of quanti-
tative methods for climatic reconstruction, are his particular interests. Dr David Donley is a
Major in the U S Air Force interested in quantitative methods in climatology. His doctoral thesis
at the University of Wisconsin was on the problem of Mycenaean climatic deterioration.
Archaeologists may be more familiar with the ‘Wadland and Donley regression equation’.

In this decade, in which the impact of environ-
mental change has become a matter of grave
concern, it seems appropriate that classical
archaeologists should turn their attention to
cases where past environmental changes might
have been important factors in cultural change.
Certainly the cultures of the past were no more
immune than ours to environmental changes
which exceeded their technical ability to cope,
or which happened faster than human adjust-
ment or technological change could encompass.
A particularly intriguing case is that con-
sidered by Professor Rhys Carpenter (1966) in
his little book entitled Discontinuity in Greek
cidization. Professor Carpenter proposes that
the Mycenaean decline was due to prolonged
drought in their homeland rather than to a
barbarian invasion. He discusses convincingly
and charmingly the archaeological evidence
on which he bases his rejection of the invasion
hypotheses, and his reasons for adopting an
hypothesis of climatic change. In the latter he
is less successful, as pointed out by two con-
tributors to this journal (Lamb, 1967, 1968a;
Wright, 1968). Nevertheless, he provides an
open invitation to the historical climatologist
to contribute his particular expertise towards
the resolution of the question. It is to this
challenge that we respond briefly here.
Essentially, Professor Carpenter proposes
that in the years around 1200 BC there was an
extended drought, sufficiently severe to disrupt
agriculture, and which afflicted Crete, the
southern Pelogonnesus, Boeotia,Euboea, Phokis
and the Argolid, but not Attica, the western
slopes of the Panachaic mountains, Kephallenia,
Thessaly with the rest of northern Greece, and
Rhodes. The test of this proposition seems to
resolve into two basic questions;
(i) is such a pattern of drought possible,
(ii) did it actually happen at the proposed time?
THE PROPOSED DROUGHT PATTERN
It is now well established, that climatic changes
tend to be nearly synchronous globally, but
not generaliy of the same sense or magnitude in
all places. Thus the climatic change at around
1200 AD produced damp weather in western

46
 D R O U G H T A N D T H E D E C L I N E OF M Y C E N A E
Europe but drought in the northern Great
Plains of North America (Baerreis and Bryson,
1967). However, Carpenter proposes a pattern
of drought and non-drought on a much smaller
scale, such that Attica should have been an island
of green surrounded by a sea of parched fields
and hillsides. This cannot be accepted on
principle without corroborating evidence of its
possibility.
Fortunately for the historical climatologist,
the modern variability of weather and climate
is sufficiently great that analogues can be
found for almost any conceivable post-glacial
(and-according to some recent studies-
possibly many glacial) climatic patterns. If a
year can be found that has the appropriate
pattern to fit the field evidence from some
past century, there is no meteorological reason
why that pattern could not exist as the domi-
nant pattern for a century or more. One may also
say that since physical constraints exist that tie
together the regional circulation patterns of the
atmosphere into a coherent whole, we have a
powerful tool for testing the validity of a
proposed pattern with evidence from regions
quite distant from the one for which the
analogue was chosen. We shall return to this
concept in a later paragraph. Furthermore the
mean pattern of a year or a month may be
broken down into a number of normal circula-
tion modes which may be combined linearly to
form possible mean patterns not duplicated
exactly in the modern meteorological record.
These modes have been treated by Lorenz
(1956) as ‘empirical orthogonal functions’ and
by Kutzbach (1967) as ‘eigenvectors’.
Using the method of Kutzbach, the basic
circulation modes over Europe, along with
Mediterranean precipitation patterns, were
analysed to see whether there might be a
mode which matches Carpenter’s proposed
pattern for the time of Mycenaean decline. I n
addition, using the method of Palmer (rg65),
monthly drought indices for Greece were
subjected to the same type of analysis (Donley,
1971). The five major Patterns which emerged
all have one characteristic in common: they
show that Greece is normally on the boundary
between regions of deficit and regions of
47
excess moisture, and thus contrasts within the
Greek area might be expected rather more often
than not. Much of the intricate detail of
regions of differing rainfall anomalies within
Greece is presumably accounted for by the
interaction between the winds that prevail
with dominance of a particular pattern and the
mountainous topography of that country. The
five major patterns also show that most of the
modes of precipitation and drought pattern
variation have a very small effect on the January
rainfall of Attica and several show little or no
variation on Rhodes and the southwestern
coast of Turkey.
In particular, the fourth most important
drought pattern (eigenvector) of the present
time is one which contrasts Attica with much of
Greece, and particularly with the Mycenaean
area. From this it would appear that while this
is not the most common modem pattern, it is
certainly not an abnormal pattern. Further,
searching the modern record for a case where
this pattern dominated, we found that January
1955 was an excellent analogue, dominated by
the fourth eigenvector. Indeed the January 1955
pattern of precipitation anomalies is very close
to that suggested by Carpenter as characteristic
of the time of Mycenaean decline, as was the
whole period November 1954 to March 1955
(FIG.I). Thus our first question is answered, for
not only is Carpenter’s proposed pattern possible
but it actually occurred in 1954-55. One can see
no meteorological reason why it might not
also dominate a century or two.
The second question is more difficult, for
there is a surprising dearth of field environ-
mental data pertinent to the Greek region for
any historic or prehistoric epoch.
THE CLIMATIC PATTERNS OF I 2 0 0 B C
When one attempts the reconstruction of past
events using both historical and radiocarbon
dates, care must be exercised to avoid the
difficulties which arise from the systematic
differences between the two dating systems.
As is now becoming clear from the work of
Stuiver and Suess (1966), Wendland and
Donley (1971), and others, the difference
between calendar date and radiocarbon date
 ANTIQUITY

Fig. I . Departure of the January 19-55precipitationfrom normal, in per cent. January 19-55 was chosen as
an analogue of the proposed drought pattern during the Mycenaean decline because it represents one of the
normal precipitation modes which fits Carpenter’s pattern of population change around 1200 BC
may be a number of centuries. The appropriate there was indeed a drought in the Mycenaean
correction for the latter part of the second area at the time of the demise of that culture,
millennium BC appears to be on the order of two but we can at least explore whether the extant
centuries. It also appears that the time required data are consistent with the circulation pattern
for a major climatic change is on the order of a required to give the hypothesized drought
half century, more or less, while the ‘half-life’ pattern.
of the ecological response to major changes is In order to provide a framework for evalua-
on the order of a century or so (Bryson et al., ting scattered evidence from non-Greek loca-
1970).” The implication of these considerations tions, an investigation was made of the hemi-
is that events dated by radiocarbon as occurring spheric circulation patterns. Five different
in the centuries either side of 2900 BP may be circulation typing schemes were examined, and
pertinent to environmental considerations for all showed that the period November 1954
the calendar period around 1200 BC. through March 1955 was dominated by distinc-
There is far too little field evidence to give a tive types characterized in the area of the
definitive answer to the question of whether eastern Mediterranean by patterns consistent
* We are using the term ‘half-life’ here as the time next to occur, since ecological responses to sudden
required for half of the change from one regime to the changes in climate appear to be exponential.
 DROUGHT AND THE DECLINE O F MYCENAE
with the proposed Mycenaean drought pattern.
These types were also consistent in showing a
three-wave slightly expanded circumpolar vor-
tex, usually a trough of low pressure in the
Mediterranean west of its normal position,
higher than normal pressure over Turkey and
the storm tracks that usually bring winter
precipitation to Greece curving northward
more sharply than normal.
Evidence, from any region, that is consistent
with this hemispheric circulation pattern is then
evidence bearing on the question of whether the
proposed Mycenaean drought pattern actually
occurred around I zoo BC. Some of the scattered
pieces of evidence that exist are given in the
following list, followed by the meteorological
anomalies observed in the Mycenaean-type
winter of 1954-55 (in parentheses):
(i) Near the end of the thirteenth century BC the
Hittites left the Anatolian Plateau and moved to
northern Syria, a move usually attributed to
famine (Carpenter, 1966; Gurney, 1952). (1954-
55 precipitation 20-40 per cent below normal,
temperature z*5-4.0°C above normal.)
(ii) People from Libya tried to emigrate into
Egypt c. 1200 BC, taking their possessions with
them (Peake, 1922; Bell, 1971). (r954-55
precipitation 50 per cent below normal, temper-
ature I * ~ O Cabove normal.)
(iii) Pollen diagrams from the mountains of
northwestern Greece, and the southern Dal-
matian coast show no evidence of drought at the
time in question (Wright, 1968). (1954-55 near
normal.)
(iv) Disastrous floods occurred on the Hungarian
Plain c. 1200 BC (Brooks, 1926; Lamb, 196813).
(1954-55 precipitation 5-15 per cent above
normal, temperature about o.5OC above normal
and a precipitation anomaly of about +zo
per cent in the mountains.)
(v) Lake Naivasha in west-central Kenya dried
out near the Sub-boreal to Sub-Atlantic trans-
ition (Vogel, 1970), the Caspian Sea rose about
1200 BC (Starkel, 1966)~ and Owens Lake,
California, overflowed about this time (Brooks,
1926). (1954-55, Western Kenya precipitation
35 per cent below normal, lake levels below
normal. Precipitation on Caspian watershed
20-50 per cent above normal. Owens Lake area
wetter and cooler than normal.)
49
(vi) Snowline lowered in Norway about 1200 BC
(Schwanbach, 1963). (1954-55 lower snowline
according to Kasser, 1967.)
(vii) Alpine folk legends and cessation of gold
mining in the Alps about, or after, 1200BC during
Hallstatt times suggest deterioration of the
Alpine winter climate (Lamb, 1964). (1954-55
precipitation 10-30 per cent above normal,
temperature near normal.)
(viii) Settlements in northern Persia were
abandoned about the beginning of the Sub-
Atlantic period according to Brooks (1926),
though no close dating can be given by the
present authors. The abandonment has been
attributed to drought. (1954-55 precipitation
about half of normal, temperature 1*7-Z.5°C
above normal.)*
All these pieces of evidence are consistent
with the meteorological anomalies of the winter
of 1954-55, and with the general circulation
pattern of that winter. Particularly interesting
is the pollen evidence (iii), which Wright (1968)
treated as non-evidence. The fact that he
found evidence of no climatic change around
1200 BC is quite in accord with the zero-anomaly
character of the region of his data during a
Mycenaean-type drought for which the winter
of 1954-55 appears to be an analogue.
It is reasonable to say that if the pattern of
the winter of 1954-55 had dominated the
climate around 1200 BC, or even if that pattern
had been a good deal more frequent than in
modern times, Mycenaean agriculture would
have been very precarious indeed. A short,
more intense episode might have been disa-
strous. One should also note that had this
pattern prevailed in late Mycenaean times, one
might expect widespread population shifts in
Turkey, and an influx of people from Cyren-
aica and Israel into the Nile Valley.
While the preceding paragraphs have not
demonstrated that a drought of significant
;* The non-paleoclimatologist may be surprised at
the wide spatial distribution of the data adduced
above, but the global integrity of the atmospheric
circulation is such that no one region is independent
of the rest of the world climatically. Data from
North America are pertinent to European climatic
reconstruction and aim-oersa. The climatic world is
one world.
 ANTIQUITY
proportions did indeed occur in late Mycenaean
times, we believe that the evidence is sufficient
to justify Carpenter’s drought hypothesis as the
only one presently available that is consistent
with extant evidence, The drought pattern
suggested by the winter 1954-55 is not indeed
anything quite so simple as a bodily displace-
ment of the whole subtropical arid (or trade
wind) zone, but the fact that it is concentrated
B I B L I O GRAPHY
BAERREIS, D. A.and R. A. BRYSON (eds.). 1967. Climatic
change and the Mill Creek Culture of Iowa,
Archives Archaeology, Society of American
Archaeologists, XXIX, 1-673.
BELL, B. 1971. The dark ages in ancient history: I .
The first dark age in Egypt, A J A , ~ x x v 1-26.
, civilization, Advancement of Science, xxv, 103-20.
BROOKS, c. E. P . 1926. Climate through the ages (Lon-
don).
BRYSON, R. A., D. A. BAERREIS and w. M. WENDLAND.
1970. The character of Late- and Post-glacial
climatic changes, in (eds.) W. Dort Jr. and
J. K. Jones Jr, Pleistocene and recent environ-
ments of the central Great Plains (Lawrence,
Kansas).
CARPENTER, R. 1966. Discontinuity in Greek civilization
(Cambridge).
DONLEY, D. L. 1971. Analysis of the winter climatic
pattern at the time of the Mycenaean decline
(PhD thesis, University of Wisconsin).
GURNEY, 0. R. 1952. The Hittites (Harmondsworth).
KASSER, P. 1967. Fluctuations of glaciers 1959-1965
(UNESCO, International Association of Scien-
tific Hydrology, Commission of Snow and Ice).
KUTZBACH, J. E. 1967. Empirical eigenvectors of sea-
level pressure, surface temperature and precipi-
tation complexes over North America, Journal
of Applied Meteorology, VI, 791-802.
LAMB, H. H. 1964. Trees and climatic history in
Scotland: a radiocarbon dating test and other
evidence, Quarterly Journal of tile Royal
Meteorological Society, XC, 382-94.
1967. Review of Rhys Carpenter, Discontinuity in
Greek civilization, Antiquity, XLI, 233-4.
on a particular range of longitudes, and even
shows correspondence of smaller scale detail
over Greece, lends conviction to the thesis that
this is something like what happened around
1200~~ .
Clearly more field data are needed,
especially in critical areas. It is likely that the
yet uncovered record of the past contains the
answers we seek-if we are wise enough to ask
the right questions.
1968a. On the nature of certain epochs which
differed from the modem (1900-1939) normal,
in (ed.) H. H. Lamb, The changing climate
(London), 58-1 12.
1968b. The climatic background to the birth of
LORENZ, E. N. 1956. Empirical orthogonal functions and
statistical ,weather prediction (MIT Dept. of
Meteorology, Contract AF 19(604)-1566, Sci.
Rept. No. I).
PALMER, w. c. 1965. Meteorological drought (Washing-
ton, DC, U S Dept. of Commerce, Weather
Bureau Research Paper No. 245).
PEAKE, H. 1922. The bronze age and the Celtic world
(London).
SCHWARZBACH, M. 1963. Climates of the past (ed. and
trans.) R. 0. Muir (London).
STARKEL, L. 1966. Post-glacial climate and the
moulding of European relief, in (ed.) J. S.
Sawyer, World climate from 8000 to o BC
(London), 15-33.
STUIVER, M. and H . E. SUESS, 1966. On the relationship
between radiocarbon dates and true sample ages,
Radiocarbon, 8, 534.
VOGEL, J. c. 1970. Groningen radiocarbon dates IX,
Radiocarbon, I 2,444-71.
WENDLAND, w. M. and D. L. DONLEY, 1971. Radio-
carbon-calendar age relationship, Earth and
Planetary Science Letters, XI, 135-9.
WRIGHT, H. E. JR. 1968. Climatic change in Mycenaean
Greece, Antiquity, XLII, 123-7.