Se tiene una tabla con los resultados de intensidades con tiempos de 10, 30 y 60 minutos siendo la siguiente:

10 30 60 120
𝑋 ̅ 23.76 15.07 10.48 6.15
𝑆_𝑋 11.88 7.53 5.24 3.04
n 25 25 25 25

Determinar los tiempos de retorno para :

TR = 5 años
TR = 10 años
TR = 20 años
TR = 50 años
TR = 100 años

1°. Método Gumbel

1−1/𝑇𝑅=𝑒^( 〖−𝑒〗 ^(−𝑦) )

2°. Determinación de los parámetros "a" y "u"

𝑎=𝑆_𝑋/𝑆_𝑛 𝑢=𝑋 ̅-𝑦_𝑛.𝑎

1.092
𝑆_𝑛 0.531
𝑦_𝑛
10 30 60 120
a 10.87912088 6.8956044 4.7985348 2.78388278

10 30 60 120
u 17.98318681 11.4084341 7.93197802 4.67175824

3°. Utilizando

𝑥=𝑦.𝑎+𝑢
TR 5 años

0.8
-0.223143551
𝑒^( 〖−𝑒〗 ^(−𝑦)0.223143551
)=
〖−𝑒〗- ^(−𝑦)=
y= -1.499939987
𝑒^(−𝑦)=
y = 1.499939987

Chart Title
10 30 60 120
80
70
60
50
 Chart Title
x 34.30121524 21.7514268 15.1294922 17.983186880
70
60

TR 10 años 50
40

0.9 30
20
-0.105360516
10
0.105360516
𝑒^( 〖−𝑒〗 ^(−𝑦) )= 0
-y= -2.250367327 1 2
〖−𝑒〗 ^(−𝑦)=
y =
𝑒^(−𝑦)= 2.250367327
10 Row 45 Row 46
Row 58 Row 69 Row 70
10 30 60 120 Row 82 Row 93 Row 94
x 42.46520499 26.9260769 18.730444 17.9831868

TR 20 años

0.95
-0.051293294
0.051293294
𝑒^( 〖−𝑒-〗
y=^(−𝑦) )=
-2.970195249
〖−𝑒〗 y^(−𝑦)=
= 2.970195249
𝑒^(−𝑦)=
10 30 60 120
x 50.29629996 31.8897255 22.1845633 17.9831868

TR 50 años

0.98
-0.020202707
0.020202707
𝑒^( 〖−𝑒-〗
y =^(−𝑦)-3.901938658
)=
y =
〖−𝑒〗 ^(−𝑦)= 3.901938658
𝑒^(−𝑦)=
10 30 60 120
x 60.43284914 38.3146594 26.6555665 17.9831868

TR 100 años

0.99
-0.010050336
0.010050336
-y= -4.600149227
𝑒^( 〖−𝑒〗 ^(−𝑦) )=
𝑒^( 〖−𝑒〗 ^(−𝑦) )=
y = 4.600149227
〖−𝑒〗 ^(−𝑦)=
𝑒^(−𝑦)=
10 30 60 120
x 68.02876631 43.1292433 30.0059542 17.9831868
endo la siguiente:

Chart Title
Chart Title

2 3

Row 45 Row 46 Row 57

Row 69 Row 70 Row 81
Row 93 Row 94 Row 94
 INTENSIDADES MAXIMAS (mm/h)
ESTACION AUGUSTO WEBERBAUER
Altitud: 2536 m.s.n.m Ubicación:
Longitud: 78° 30' Dpto. : Cajamarca
Latitud: 07° 10' Prov. : Cajamarca
Distrito: Cajamarca

AÑO 5 min. 10 min. 30 min. 60 min. 120 min.

1973 101.00 71.00 24.00 14.00 11.00
1974 73.00 58.00 34.00 18.00 19.00
1975 90.00 50.00 24.00 16.00 10.00
1976 68.00 63.00 37.00 19.00 9.00
1977 65.00 53.00 37.00 21.00 11.00
1978 26.00 24.00 21.00 12.00 6.00
1979 60.00 60.00 38.00 23.00 14.00
1980 73.02 60.10 33.80 21.08 9.28
1981 67.20 54.80 29.13 15.54 13.02
1982 88.29 75.15 37.20 23.10 13.27
1983 75.30 50.40 31.40 23.71 13.99
1984 112.80 71.80 27.60 15.63 9.80
1985 59.31 54.40 25.56 14.70 8.05
1986 84.60 65.40 30.11 15.60 8.23
1987 76.00 49.20 21.60 13.20 7.95
1988 70.40 52.80 23.00 13.79 7.85
1989 73.60 47.80 28.00 16.00 9.60
1990 111.60 75.00 37.94 23.00 12.00
1991 83.00 73.00 41.00 26.00 14.00
1992 56.00 39.00 19.00 10.00 5.00
1993 58.00 51.00 28.00 18.00 10.00
1994 91.49 64.18 36.22 19.04 12.91
1995 71.11 56.25 28.66 16.72 9.32
1996 81.30 60.21 32.44 17.88 11.12
1997 82.20 68.10 35.04 17.86 8.94
1998 92.00 66.34 40.60 27.10 13.50
1999 89.10 65.08 45.05 26.03 12.01
2000 70.08 56.07 35.04 23.03 14.02
2001 56.07 50.06 30.03 18.02 6.01
2002 40.80 25.80 14.50 10.49 6.55
2003 68.00 40.40 15.70 8.40 4.60
2004 28.90 28.30 29.20 12.90 7.60
2005 78.00 44.00 22.00 14.60 9.40
2006 42.00 30.70 13.50 9.40 6.30
2007 38.40 29.28 17.24 10.57 6.02
2008 16.80 14.03 9.40 6.34 3.71

Desv. Estandar 22.21 15.54 8.62 5.27 3.33

Promedio 69.95 52.71 28.69 16.96 9.83
n 36 36 36 36 36
 Determinar los tiempos de retorno para :
TR = 5 𝑎ñ𝑜𝑠 TR = 20 𝑎ñ𝑜𝑠
TR = 10 𝑎ñ𝑜𝑠 TR = 50 𝑎ñ𝑜𝑠
TR = 100 𝑎ñ𝑜𝑠
1°. Método Gumbel

1−1/𝑇𝑅=𝑒^( 〖−𝑒〗 ^(−𝑦) )

2°. Determinación de los parámetros "a" y "u"

𝑎=𝑆_𝑋/𝑆_𝑛 𝑢=𝑥 ̅-𝑦_𝑛.𝑎

Según la tabla para 36 datos, tenemos:

𝑆_(𝑛=)1.131
𝑦_(𝑛=) 0.541

TR 5 10 30 60 120
a 19.639 13.744 7.623 4.662 2.945

TR 5 10 30 60 120
u 59.330 45.277 24.569 14.442 8.242

3°. Utilizando 𝑥=𝑦.𝑎+𝑢

TR= 5 años

𝑒^( 〖−𝑒〗 ^(−𝑦) )= 0.8

〖−𝑒〗 ^(−𝑦)= -0.22314355
𝑒^(−𝑦)= 0.22314355
-y= -1.49993999
y = 1.49993999

TR 5 10 30 60 120
x 88.787 65.892 36.003 21.436 12.658

TR= 10 años

𝑒^( 〖−𝑒〗 ^(−𝑦) )= 0.9

〖−𝑒〗 ^(−𝑦)= -0.10536052
𝑒^(−𝑦)= 0.10536052
-y= -2.25036733
y = 2.25036733

TR 5 10 30 60 120
x 103.525 76.205 41.724 24.934 14.868
 TR= 20 años

𝑒^( 〖−𝑒〗 ^(−𝑦) )= 0.95

〖−𝑒〗 ^(−𝑦)= -0.05129329
𝑒^(−𝑦)= 0.05129329
-y= -2.97019525
y = 2.97019525

TR 5 10 30 60 120
x 117.662 86.098 47.211 28.290 16.988

TR= 50 años

𝑒^( 〖−𝑒〗 ^(−𝑦) )= 0.98

〖−𝑒〗 ^(−𝑦)= -0.02020271
𝑒^(−𝑦)= 0.02020271
-y= -3.90193866
y = 3.90193866

TR 5 10 30 60 120
x 135.960 98.904 54.313 32.635 19.731

TR= 100 años

𝑒^( 〖−𝑒〗 ^(−𝑦) )= 0.99

〖−𝑒〗 ^(−𝑦)= -0.01005034
𝑒^(−𝑦)= 0.01005034
-y= -4.60014923
y = 4.60014923

TR 5 10 30 60 120
x 149.672 108.500 59.636 35.890 21.787

CUADRO RESUMEN
TIEMPO DE RETORNO
DURACIÓN 5 10 20 50 100
5 88.7873172 103.524938 117.661618 135.9601 149.672238
10 65.891745 76.2052848 86.0982798 98.9037471 108.499643
30 36.0031994 41.7236026 47.2107507 54.3133011 59.6356631
60 21.4356202 24.9343627 28.2904404 32.6345389 35.8898294
120 12.6583934 14.8680833 16.987671 19.7312598 21.7871935
 CURVA IDF
160

140

120
INTENSIDAD(MM/H)

100

80

60

40

20

0
5 10 30 60 120
DURACION(MIN)

5AÑOS 10AÑOS 20AÑOS 50AÑOS 100AÑOS

 INTENSIDADES MAXIMAS (mm/h)
ESTACION AUGUSTO WEBERBAUER
Altitud: 2536 m.s.n.m Ubicación
Longitud: 78° 30' Dpto. : Cajamarca
Latitud: 07° 10' Prov. : Cajamarca
Distrito: Cajamarca

AÑO 5 min. 10 min. 30 min. 60 min. 120 min. 5 min. 10 min. 30 min. 60 min. 120 min.
1973 101.00 71.00 24.00 14.00 11.00 4.615 4.263 3.178 2.639 2.398
1974 73.00 58.00 34.00 18.00 19.00 4.290 4.060 3.526 2.890 2.944
1975 90.00 50.00 24.00 16.00 10.00 4.500 3.912 3.178 2.773 2.303
1976 68.00 63.00 37.00 19.00 9.00 4.220 4.143 3.611 2.944 2.197
1977 65.00 53.00 37.00 21.00 11.00 4.174 3.970 3.611 3.045 2.398
1978 26.00 24.00 21.00 12.00 6.00 3.258 3.178 3.045 2.485 1.792
1979 60.00 60.00 38.00 23.00 14.00 4.094 4.094 3.638 3.135 2.639
1980 73.02 60.10 33.80 21.08 9.28 4.291 4.096 3.520 3.048 2.228
1981 67.20 54.80 29.13 15.54 13.02 4.208 4.004 3.372 2.743 2.566
1982 88.29 75.15 37.20 23.10 13.27 4.481 4.319 3.616 3.140 2.586
1983 75.30 50.40 31.40 23.71 13.99 4.321 3.920 3.447 3.166 2.638
1984 112.80 71.80 27.60 15.63 9.80 4.726 4.274 3.318 2.749 2.282
1985 59.31 54.40 25.56 14.70 8.05 4.083 3.996 3.241 2.688 2.086
1986 84.60 65.40 30.11 15.60 8.23 4.438 4.181 3.405 2.747 2.108
1987 76.00 49.20 21.60 13.20 7.95 4.331 3.896 3.073 2.580 2.073
1988 70.40 52.80 23.00 13.79 7.85 4.254 3.967 3.135 2.624 2.061
1989 73.60 47.80 28.00 16.00 9.60 4.299 3.867 3.332 2.773 2.262
1990 111.60 75.00 37.94 23.00 12.00 4.715 4.317 3.636 3.135 2.485
1991 83.00 73.00 41.00 26.00 14.00 4.419 4.290 3.714 3.258 2.639
1992 56.00 39.00 19.00 10.00 5.00 4.025 3.664 2.944 2.303 1.609
1993 58.00 51.00 28.00 18.00 10.00 4.060 3.932 3.332 2.890 2.303
1994 91.49 64.18 36.22 19.04 12.91 4.516 4.162 3.590 2.947 2.558
1995 71.11 56.25 28.66 16.72 9.32 4.264 4.030 3.356 2.817 2.232
1996 81.30 60.21 32.44 17.88 11.12 4.398 4.098 3.479 2.884 2.409
1997 82.20 68.10 35.04 17.86 8.94 4.409 4.221 3.556 2.883 2.191
1998 92.00 66.34 40.60 27.10 13.50 4.522 4.195 3.704 3.300 2.603
1999 89.10 65.08 45.05 26.03 12.01 4.490 4.176 3.808 3.259 2.486
2000 70.08 56.07 35.04 23.03 14.02 4.250 4.027 3.556 3.137 2.640
2001 56.07 50.06 30.03 18.02 6.01 4.027 3.913 3.402 2.891 1.793
2002 40.80 25.80 14.50 10.49 6.55 3.709 3.250 2.674 2.350 1.879
2003 68.00 40.40 15.70 8.40 4.60 4.220 3.699 2.754 2.128 1.526
2004 28.90 28.30 29.20 12.90 7.60 3.364 3.343 3.374 2.557 2.028
2005 78.00 44.00 22.00 14.60 9.40 4.357 3.784 3.091 2.681 2.241
2006 42.00 30.70 13.50 9.40 6.30 3.738 3.424 2.603 2.241 1.841
2007 38.40 29.28 17.24 10.57 6.02 3.648 3.377 2.847 2.358 1.795
2008 16.80 14.03 9.40 6.34 3.71 2.821 2.641 2.241 1.847 1.311

Desv. Estandar 22.21 15.54 8.62 5.27 3.33 0.41 0.37 0.35 0.34 0.36
Promedio 69.95 52.71 28.69 16.96 9.83 4.18 3.91 3.30 2.78 2.23
n 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36
Determinar los tiempos de retorno para :
TR = 5 𝑎ñ𝑜𝑠 TR = 20 𝑎ñ𝑜𝑠
TR = 10 𝑎ñ𝑜𝑠 TR = 50 𝑎ñ𝑜𝑠
TR = 100 𝑎ñ𝑜𝑠

1°. Log. Normal 2 parámetros

𝑧=(𝑦−𝑥 ̅)/𝑆_𝑥

2°. Determinación de "y"

TR = 5 años
Prob. 0.2
z= 0.84

TR 5 10 30 60 120
y 4.523 4.222 3.600 3.065 2.530
x 92.124 68.176 36.589 21.433 12.559

TR = 10 años
Prob. 0.1
z= 1.28

TR 5 10 30 60 120
y 4.702 4.387 3.755 3.215 2.690
X 110.178 80.375 42.744 24.899 14.732

TR = 20 años
Prob. 0.05
z= 1.6448

TR 5 10 30 60 120
y 4.850 4.523 3.884 3.339 2.822
X 127.802 92.127 48.624 28.194 16.815
 TR = 50 años
Prob. 0.02
z= 2.05

TR 5 10 30 60 120
y 5.015 4.675 4.027 3.477 2.969
X 150.700 107.206 56.108 32.368 19.477

TR = 100 años
Prob. 0.01
z= 2.3263

TR 5 10 30 60 120
y 5.128 4.778 4.125 3.571 3.069
X 168.624 118.880 61.862 35.562 21.530

CUADRO RESUMEN
TIEMPO DE RETORNO
DURACIÓN
5 10 20 50 100
5 92.124 110.178 127.802 150.700 168.624
10 68.176 80.375 92.127 107.206 118.880
30 36.589 42.744 48.624 56.108 61.862
60 21.433 24.899 28.194 32.368 35.562
120 12.559 14.732 16.815 19.477 21.530
 CURVAS IDF
180.000
160.000
140.000

INTENSIDAD(MM/H)
120.000
100.000
80.000
60.000
40.000
20.000
0.000
5 10 30 60 120
DURACION (MIN)

5AÑOS 10AÑOS 20AÑOS 50AÑOS 100AÑOS

 INTENSIDADES MAXIMAS (mm/h)
ESTACION AUGUSTO WEBERBAUER
Altitud: 2536 m.s.n.m Ubicación
Longitud: 78° 30' Dpto. : Cajamarca
Latitud: 07° 10' Prov. : Cajamarca
Distrito: Cajamarca

AÑO 5 min. 10 min. 30 min. 60 min. 120 min. 5 min. 10 min. 30 min. 60 min. 120 min.
1973 101.00 71.00 24.00 14.00 11.00 4.62 4.26 3.18 2.64 2.40
1974 73.00 58.00 34.00 18.00 19.00 4.29 4.06 3.53 2.89 2.94
1975 90.00 50.00 24.00 16.00 10.00 4.50 3.91 3.18 2.77 2.30
1976 68.00 63.00 37.00 19.00 9.00 4.22 4.14 3.61 2.94 2.20
1977 65.00 53.00 37.00 21.00 11.00 4.17 3.97 3.61 3.04 2.40
1978 26.00 24.00 21.00 12.00 6.00 3.26 3.18 3.04 2.48 1.79
1979 60.00 60.00 38.00 23.00 14.00 4.09 4.09 3.64 3.14 2.64
1980 73.02 60.10 33.80 21.08 9.28 4.29 4.10 3.52 3.05 2.23
1981 67.20 54.80 29.13 15.54 13.02 4.21 4.00 3.37 2.74 2.57
1982 88.29 75.15 37.20 23.10 13.27 4.48 4.32 3.62 3.14 2.59
1983 75.30 50.40 31.40 23.71 13.99 4.32 3.92 3.45 3.17 2.64
1984 112.80 71.80 27.60 15.63 9.80 4.73 4.27 3.32 2.75 2.28
1985 59.31 54.40 25.56 14.70 8.05 4.08 4.00 3.24 2.69 2.09
1986 84.60 65.40 30.11 15.60 8.23 4.44 4.18 3.40 2.75 2.11
1987 76.00 49.20 21.60 13.20 7.95 4.33 3.90 3.07 2.58 2.07
1988 70.40 52.80 23.00 13.79 7.85 4.25 3.97 3.14 2.62 2.06
1989 73.60 47.80 28.00 16.00 9.60 4.30 3.87 3.33 2.77 2.26
1990 111.60 75.00 37.94 23.00 12.00 4.71 4.32 3.64 3.14 2.48
1991 83.00 73.00 41.00 26.00 14.00 4.42 4.29 3.71 3.26 2.64
1992 56.00 39.00 19.00 10.00 5.00 4.03 3.66 2.94 2.30 1.61
1993 58.00 51.00 28.00 18.00 10.00 4.06 3.93 3.33 2.89 2.30
1994 91.49 64.18 36.22 19.04 12.91 4.52 4.16 3.59 2.95 2.56
1995 71.11 56.25 28.66 16.72 9.32 4.26 4.03 3.36 2.82 2.23
1996 81.30 60.21 32.44 17.88 11.12 4.40 4.10 3.48 2.88 2.41
1997 82.20 68.10 35.04 17.86 8.94 4.41 4.22 3.56 2.88 2.19
1998 92.00 66.34 40.60 27.10 13.50 4.52 4.19 3.70 3.30 2.60
1999 89.10 65.08 45.05 26.03 12.01 4.49 4.18 3.81 3.26 2.49
2000 70.08 56.07 35.04 23.03 14.02 4.25 4.03 3.56 3.14 2.64
2001 56.07 50.06 30.03 18.02 6.01 4.03 3.91 3.40 2.89 1.79
2002 40.80 25.80 14.50 10.49 6.55 3.71 3.25 2.67 2.35 1.88
2003 68.00 40.40 15.70 8.40 4.60 4.22 3.70 2.75 2.13 1.53
2004 28.90 28.30 29.20 12.90 7.60 3.36 3.34 3.37 2.56 2.03
2005 78.00 44.00 22.00 14.60 9.40 4.36 3.78 3.09 2.68 2.24
2006 42.00 30.70 13.50 9.40 6.30 3.74 3.42 2.60 2.24 1.84
2007 38.40 29.28 17.24 10.57 6.02 3.65 3.38 2.85 2.36 1.80
2008 16.80 14.03 9.40 6.34 3.71 2.82 2.64 2.24 1.85 1.31

Desv. Estandar 22.21 15.54 8.62 5.27 3.33 0.41 0.37 0.35 0.34 0.36
Promedio 69.95 52.71 28.69 16.96 9.83 4.18 3.91 3.30 2.78 2.23
n 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36
𝑎ñ𝑜𝑠
 𝑎ñ𝑜𝑠
Determinar los tiempos de retorno para :
𝑎ñ𝑜𝑠 𝑎ñ𝑜𝑠
TR = 5 TR = 20
𝑎ñ𝑜𝑠
TR = 10 TR = 50
𝑎ñ𝑜𝑠
TR = 100

1°. Log. Normal 3 parámetros

𝑦=𝑥 ̅+𝑧𝑠_𝑥
𝑦=𝐿𝑛(𝑥−𝑎)
𝑥=𝑒^𝑦+𝑎

2°. Determinación de "a"

TR 5 10 30 60 120
a 5.09 4.52 4.26 3.96 5.58
3°. Determinación de "y"

TR = 5 años
Prob. 0.2
z= 0.84

TR 5 10 30 60 120
y 4.523 4.222 3.600 3.065 2.530
x 97.212 72.694 40.854 25.392 18.136

TR = 10 años
Prob. 0.1
z = 1.28

TR 5 10 30 60 120
y 4.702 4.387 3.755 3.215 2.690
x 115.267 84.892 47.009 28.858 20.309

TR = 20 años
Prob. 0.05
z = 1.6448

TR 5 10 30 60 120
y 4.850 4.523 3.884 3.339 2.822
x 132.890 96.645 52.889 32.153 22.393

TR = 50 años
Prob. 0.02
z = 2.05
 5 10 30 60 120
y 5.015 4.675 4.027 3.477 2.969
x 155.788 111.724 60.373 36.327 25.054

TR = 100 años
Prob. 0.01
z = 2.3263

5 10 30 60 120
y 5.128 4.778 4.125 3.571 3.069
x 173.712 123.398 66.127 39.521 27.107

CUADRO RESUMEN
TIEMPO DE RETORNO
DURACIÓN
5 10 20 50 100
5 97.21 115.27 132.89 155.79 173.71
10 72.69 84.89 96.64 111.72 123.40
30 40.85 47.01 52.89 60.37 66.13
60 25.39 28.86 32.15 36.33 39.52
120 18.14 20.31 22.39 25.05 27.11
intensidad (mm/h)

CURVAS IDF
200.00
180.00
160.00
140.00
120.00
100.00
80.00
60.00
40.00
20.00
0.00
5 10 30 60 120
DURACION (MIN)

5AÑOS 10AÑOS 20AÑOS 50AÑOS 100AÑOS