ICRA

Report on
Roads
Infrastructure
&
Logistics
Sector
in India
SECTION: ROAD INFRASTRUCTURE
Table of Contents

Summary 1

Major policy changes in last three years 3

Update on execution & awards 5

Increasing awards through Hybrid Annuity Model 7

M&A deals in road sector 10

NHAI’s proposed – TOT model 1

15

Outlook 17
 01 Summary

Government’s policy measures over the last 36

months have revived the Indian road sector, which
was earlier beset by execution delays, project
cancellations, stalled projects, loss of lender

road projects and the remaining are national

initiatives that ICRA believes will have a direct
bearing on the execution pace include awarding
projects after securing 80% right of way;
expediting projects stuck midway; delegating the relaxation of the exit policy for projects awarded
power to grant forest clearances to regional

ROB and RUBs and increasing the limit on sand

waterfall mechanism, which explores BOT (Toll)
available more speedily, the NHAI has delegated
engineering, procurement and construction (EPC),
on the right of way and to shift utilities as and

awarding process because of low private sector

participation, shifting to the EPC mode and

premium payment, compensating concessionaires
for delays not attributable to them, relaxing exit
initiatives will help the road sector regain the
restarting the award process became time
consuming which was the primary reason for the
was subsequently scrapped and replaced by a
system, wherein the committee, headed by the
Secretary of the Ministry of Road Transport and
Highways (MoRTH), would decide on the mode

land acquisition, clearances from the Ministry of

Asset sales in the road sector have picked up over number of EPC contracts have spiked the interest
 operational national highway projects, totaling

(HAM), which is a mix of EPC and BOT (Annuity)

models, wherein the Government and the private According to ICRA estimates, the total value of the

the most preferred mode of awarding projects by Government focus on addressing execution
bottlenecks and improve developer’s liquidity
were made through the HAM route, compared to
outlook on the sector continues to be Stable

caution while taking on additional exposure and

However, given the low equity requirement of HAM, secondly because of the leveraged balance sheets
lenders are concerned about the developers’
commitment till the end of the concession period,
particularly because many of them have limited

sizeable number of projects are struggling to

the lesser reputed developers) owing to low skin in

Economic Affairs (CCEA) authorised the NHAI to

projects that are operational and generating toll

revenues for at least two years after the
commercial operation date (COD) through the
 02 Major policy changes in the last
three years
Government’s policy measures over the last 36 premium payment, compensating concessionaires
months have revived the Indian road sector, which for delays not attributable to them, relaxing exit
was earlier beset by execution delays, project
cancellations, stalled projects, loss of lender

initiatives will help the road sector regain the

to addressing execution bottlenecks, policy

Major policy changes Comments

award to be made against

bank guarantee

the dispute resolution process continues, thus reducing the likelihood of

Compensation to
concessionaires in case of construction period and operation period, any delay in achieving the COD
delays not attributable to would shorten the operation period resulting in revenue loss and higher
concessionaires –
Applicable to languishing operation period as envisaged originally in the concession agreement
toll and annuity projects; will would remain unchanged, resulting in a corresponding increase in the
not be applicable to projects
where tolling is permitted
from the appointed date however, the total number of annuities payable will remain as per the

resurrect languishing projects and reduce lenders’ discomfort in projects

Major policy changes Comments
Segregation of civil With the steep increase in land cost, the total project cost (TPC) of many
construction cost from
capital cost of National
Highways projects for allow greater leeway to MoRTH to clear projects on its own without going
appraisal and approval

NHAI to revive languishing

projects

with the NHAI agreeing to lend against compensatory annuities payable

Amendments to MCA for

BOT projects
inclusion of adverse judicial proceedings affecting project stretch as new
eligibility criteria for revenue shortfall loan are positives in case of BOT

Including more avenues for deployment of sale proceeds in addition to

divestment after two years completing ongoing NH projects such as investment in a) any other
of construction completion highway projects b) power sector projects and c) retirement of existing
for all BOT projects debt in any other infrastructure projects is a positive, given that a large
irrespective of the year of number of highway infrastructure players also have exposures to the
award, with relaxation in
end use of funds of divestment proceeds to pare debt would reduce interest burden and
 03 Update on execution and awards

Execution: 30% increase in execution rate in ROB and RUBs and increasing the limit on sand
FY2017
available more speedily, the NHAI has delegated
Over the last three years, the Government focused
on the right of way and to shift utilities as and
like awarding projects after securing 80% right of
way, expediting projects stuck midway, delegating
the power to grant forest clearances to regional

Awards: Around 53% of awards in FY2017 are

through hybrid annuity model
waterfall mechanism, which explores BOT (Toll)
engineering, procurement and construction (EPC),
awarding process because of low private sector
participation, shifting to the EPC mode and
restarting the award process became time
consuming which was the primary reason for the
was subsequently scrapped and replaced by a
system, wherein the committee, headed by the
Secretary of the Ministry of Road Transport and
Highways (MoRTH), can now decide on the mode
 through the BOT (Toll) mode, 8% through the

and more number of EPC contracts have spiked

the interest of developers and contractors in road

km (37%) were awarded through the EPC route and

 04 Hybrid Annuity Model

In a bid to attract private sector participants in the The bidding variable is the life cycle cost which is
road sector, the Government introduced the Hybrid the summation of a) the NPV of the bid project
cost during the construction period and (b) the
NPV of the O&M cost during the O&M period,

Both the project cost and the O&M costs will be

business, the developer’s net equity contribution

construction support fund from NHAI are adjusted
for inflation; the difference between these two at
the other hand, the private player will bear the the time of commercial operations date is the

Overall, from the developer’s perspective, HAM has annuity payment schedule is linked to the
several positives when compared with BOT
during the operations phase will be adjusted for
These features of HAM have garnered a favourable
HAM most preferred mode

total awards) were awarded through the HAM

through the HAM mode when compared to 8% in

Two in three HAM projects awarded by discount to the base price, with some HAM
NHAI till January, 2017 were at a discount
to the base price, though moderation in
competitive intensity witnessed in recent bidders for these projects ranged between three
awards

ICRA’s study on HAM bids suggests that bids till projects being awarded at a premium during this

projects awarded by the NHAI were quoted at a

After the initial teething problems with modest projects, a wide variation in actual and projected

aggressive promotions campaigns to lenders and Although the letter of awards (LoAs) was signed in
developers, improved the participation level to

struction (EPC) mode experienced the most
intense competition, with a large number of
bidders quoting at a substantial discount to the
witnessed moderate competition, while the BOT
Given the low equity requirement for the HAM,
cially given that many of the developers have
limited experience in development space (many

bursed by the NHAI during the construction phase

lower, resulting in not much of skin in the game for

been cancelled owing to the developers’ inability to

increased with some moderation in aggression;

good mix of premium and discounted bids with

Low skin in the game remains a key

concern for lenders

With the Indian road sector long being affected by

execution delays, project cancellations, stuck
 0 M&A deals in road sector

interest rates are expected to improve

valuations and accelerate M&A deals in road projects and the remaining are national
road sector

Asset sales in the road sector have picked up over

relaxation of the exit policy for projects awarded
 Highways), Abertis Infrastructures (Spain) and

concession period (CP) at the time of transaction

whose remaining CP is three years, were a part of a

funds are also increasingly looking at acquiring

developer is negative, indicating loss on operational track record provide more comfort as

disposed their assets at a loss as liquidity took pertaining to regular/periodic maintenance would

with the highest returns were secondary sale user acceptability of toll rate revisions and toll
transactions wherein the sponsors are private
opportunities in the road sector are the highest
following a favourable outlook on toll collections
and decline in interest rates, the asset sale around 88 operational National Highways
transactions are expected to gather further

(Australia), I Squared capital (USA, Cube

 witnessed any change in rating while the ones
SPVs rated in the A category and below have undergone

Change of ownership (including additional equity

SPVs rated in the AA category and above have not

2
Operational BOT projects adjusted for projects wherein private equity investments happened at holding company level and projects where asset sale
is concluded.
 0 NHAI’s proposed – TOT Model

Monetisation of 75 projects through

toll-operate-transfer route expected to fetch
around Rs. 356 billion

Given the wide variation in toll collections, the

to monetise public funded National Highway (NH) attractiveness of stretches with long vintage and
projects, which are operational and are generating
toll revenues for at least two years after the
Commercial Operations Date (COD) through the
In this context, it makes sense to bundle the
operational national highway projects totaling
The NHAI could also consider keeping a floor and a
cap price so that the bidding is not very aggressive

However, developer’s are more interested in

contiguous stretches, given the operational

According to ICRA Research’s estimates, the total

 major concern for the bidders will be the quality of
Given that the concession period for the TOT
the assets – for many EPC projects which are
projects is expected to be 30 years, with
irregularly maintained in the past, the major
permissible debt up to 80% of the concession fee
maintenance requirement could be higher than the
benchmarks, once the TOT concessionaire takes

Alternatively projects with such high debt levels

the TOT concessionaires will remain exposed to

 07
patch with note ban

ICRA’s study3

in these two sectors has a direct material adverse

deceleration is largely due to the decline in

freight movement are strongly correlated to the

Chart 10:

3
 of actual and projected at the time of bidding) for

period may get extended to compensate for the

days on an annual basis, most of the toll roads remaining loss; however, there is no clarity on this
reported either marginal reduction or stagnation in

The NHAI provided immediate relief by covering

 08 Outlook

Government focus on addressing execution

6
(programs like NHDP , Bharatmala bottlenecks and improve developer’s liquidity

these initiatives will help the road sector regain the

elongated working capital cycle and reduced

awarding projects after receiving all approvals is

likely to reduce delays in execution and hence a
lenders exercising more caution while taking on
to keep credit metrics for most additional exposure and secondly because of the

6
SECTION: LOGISTICS
Table of Contents

Summary 1

Overview of Logistics Sector in India 4

Likely impact of proposed investments to improve 5

India’s transportation mix

Impact of Goods & Services Tax (GST) 13

18
Logistics and their impact
 01 Summary

India’s logistics sector is at the cusp of fragmentation (presence of numerous small and
evolution with medium-to-long term
implications

The logistics sector in India is currently at the

& Services Tax (GST) to the Government’s focus on Accordingly, the sector is known to be highly
improving India’s transportation mix and the
exaggerated by India’s relatively weak core
road logistics sector is heading towards an
Collectively, these hurdles lead to a high
to challenge the conventional business models turnaround time and high cost of logistics, which in
and prompt stakeholders across the value the

sector in India has been characterised by high

As a result of changing customer needs and
expected to improve with a reduction in turnaround
business, the organised players are also aiming to

management (SCM) industry is still at the nascent

stages but is steadily gaining traction, especially in
industries such as automobiles, pharmaceuticals, Railways to gain market share from roads
over the longer-term

The other key evolution in the logistics space is

focus area, given the integral part that logistics expected to be the shift in transportation mix over

transport in the overall freight demand will

entered this space, in addition to the captive arms

with cold chain and warehousing, are likely to

provide growth opportunities for organised Maharashtra and will pass through Haryana,
Rajasthan, Gujarat and Maharashtra, thus greatly

pave way for organised players

The logistics sector is expected to be the key direct

three major implications on the sector – a)
consolidation of warehousing network and a shift
degree of tax compliance with business moving
providers to the organised sector and c) creation of
traditional transport service providers by virtue of
In addition, the availability of input tax credit on
Haryana and the densely populated states of Uttar
commodity carried on rails in this region is coal
and fast deliveries to the thermal plants in Delhi
capacity constraints of the Indian Railways lead to
delayed arrival of coal in thermal plants, which in
turn leads to multiple blackouts and interruptions
 like Rivigo have adopted an asset heavy model;

population by ensuring uninterrupted power

of transport of foodgrain to the states of Punjab, tion, dispatch planning, driver relay model and

which have helped reduce the turnaround time and

Roads, nonetheless, will continue to
dominate the transport mix

have a meaningful impact on the business of

from dedicated infrastructure projects, the road
connectivity will continue to be an integral part of
the logistics supply chain, with better economics
incumbents but they are prompting companies to
the leading players may also express interest in
acquiring the technology startups leading to M&A

ments in highway connectivity and the GST will

ease the bottleneck in road transportation and

Conventional business models are likely to

be challenged with the emergence of
start-ups

The logistics sector is also seeing the emergence

of numerous startups aided by investments from

adopted different business models to enter the

Page | 3
 02 Overview of Logistics Sector in India

Logistics in India – A complex structure characterised by high fragmentation and dispersed service
providers
 03 Likely Impact of Proposed Investments to Improve
India’s Transportation Mix

The Railways has lost market share in preferred mode of transportation for long haul and
bulky commodities such as coal, iron ore,

The Railways account for approximately 30% of to maintain its dominance in transportation of
the total freight movement in India and is a select commodities, it has lost its market share on

of Key Commodities

Commodity FY 2010 FY 2011 FY 2012 FY 2013 FY 2014 FY 2015 FY 2016

Coal 65.4% 69.9% 70.9% 70.7% 69.4% 65.9% 66%

Iron Ore 60.5% 56.7% 61.8% 79.8% 81.3% 80.0% 72%

Cement 45.9% 46.8% 47.7% 41.8% 42.7% 40.4% 37%

Foodgrains 16.9% 17.8% 17.9% 19.1% 20.8% 22.0% 18%

Fertilisers 81.5% 81.6% 86.1% 85.3% 86.1% 85.2% 88%

Mineral Oils 20.1% 18.5% 18.2% 17.4% 17.3% 17.0% 17%

Under-investments in infrastructure and increase in freight charges (to support passenger

low flexibility have been the key reasons segment) and decline in diesel prices, which

A confluence of factors, including

congestion on its network), limited private sector connectivity are also often cited as the other
participation and better service and reliability
offered by the road transport segment had led to Despite opening up the sector to private
investments, the share of private container train
operators (CTOs) has also remained miniscule on
account of the frequent increase in haulage
Ongoing investments in DFCCs likely to
address many of Railways’ shortcomings
To address these shortcomings, the Railways have
taken measures over the past few years, including
reducing freight rates for coal transportation over
long distances, and c) phasing out of the dual
front as well, the Government has scaled up its
budgetary allocation towards the Railways during
Besides easing congestion on its existing
infrastructure, the Railways has also proposed to
develop four new dedicated freight corridors
Among the key projects, the completion of two
will accrue once the complete network will be
DFCCs will enable Railways to gain share
over road over the longer-term
only would these corridors add incremental
capacity to the railway network, but it would also
have a positive multiplier effect on the logistics
industry in India through the interplay of multiple
While the current rail network runs
passenger and freight trains on the same tracks,
between Delhi and Kolkata is expected to reduce
expected to translate into lower costs for
transportation of freight by rail, thereby increasing
Shifting of freight from the existing
congested road and rail network to the dedicated
freight corridors would free up capacities on the
the eastern belt and container movement along the
would free capacity on the existing rail network to
Page | 6

investments in multiple other projects like the
moving through two junctions will migrate
to DFCCs
The eastern and western corridors on completion
will move through six zonal railways, which
length of the corridor, which would facilitate the
minimum 70% of the total cargo movement, which
passes through at least two junctions, will shift to
the existing railway infrastructure which will lead to
faster movement of freight and reduce the
Page | 7
container train operators on the
Delhi-Mumbai route producer of cement and accounts for almost 80%

Sheva (Maharashtra) and goes via Rewari, Ajmer,

India, its volumes have remained flat over the

This corridor passes through the auto belt

of Haryana and Gujarat and it opens up the would depend on the Indian Railway’s feeder lines
possibility of transporting automobiles to

Western Railways

Page | 8
industrial belts in Haryana, Rajasthan and
Gujarat

Haryana
Length of

Key Industries

Railway Zone Northern Railways

Although only a small section of

through the auto and industrial

Analysis

customers in Rajasthan, Gujarat

Rajasthan
Length of

Key Industries Cement, Automobile Industry,

Railway Zone North Western Railways

of Rajasthan’s total cement

Analysis
Railways gaining market share
from the road transport industry

Gujarat
Length of

Key Industries

Railway Zone Western Railways

container movement on account

Analysis
upgrading the feeder routes to
Mundra could lead to greater
Eastern DFC to provide seamless coal
transportation to thermal power plants in
North India

originates at Ludhiana (Punjab) and terminates at

Dankuni (West Bengal) and goes via Ambala, As most of the power plants do not lie
Meerut, Dadri, Kanpur, Allahabad, Mughal Sarai and
for the Indian Railways to develop feeder routes to
handle the heavier trains that will operate on the
The World Bank has funded the section between

passes through the high population density belts

of Uttar Pradesh and West Bengal, is also expected time for perishable food products and reduce the
transport cost for foodgrains procured in UP,

capacity constraints of the Indian Railways to

Timely completion and post-execution
challenges can de-rail the grand project

The project has already been delayed several years from its original target and

Further Delays in
Completion

Delays in the project implementation will lead to delays in revenue generation

Railway’s infrastructure to reach its destination or on account of the point of

Bottlenecks on
Account of Poor Indian
Railways Infrastructure

entered into MoUs with the Haryana Government, the Gujarat Government and
Supporting
Infrastructure

realising its full potential and make it unattractive to freight consignors

Development, Design
of Wagons Suitable for
DFC However, at present, there is no visibility as to when the new rakes would be
Focus on developing other modes will also
will help in bringing down the cost of transporting
mix bulk commodities especially coal, steel, fertilizers,

Apart from investments in the Railways and

With an attempt to improve integrated logistics, the

transportation mix by developing inland and

country, located strategically close to major
for a miniscule 6% of the total freight movement in
India while countries such as China (30%) and the estimates that a cumulative investment of around

the Government has chalked an ambitious

Sagarmala project that aims at doubling the share
of seaways in the transport mix over the next
decade by executing multiple projects related to
 04 Impact of Goods & Services Tax (GST)
on the sector

The earlier tax structure had two categories of

taxes – levied by the state and the Centre, resulting

addition, the state and central taxes are

GST regime is expected to rectify this situation by

on the way transportation and storage of goods

of GST would have three major implications for the goods and services and it will subsume a host of
logistics sector – a) consolidation of warehousing indirect taxes and levies at the central and state
level and will be levied by both the Centre and state
model, b) higher degree of tax compliance with

transportation service providers to the organised goods and services, the state will levy an SGST and

between express and traditional transport service

Investment in both manpower & IT system
a necessity
Under the GST, details of goods being carried on
each trip will be uploaded on an IT system, namely
GSTN, which the Government will use to settle
nies need to invest in both manpower and IT
to provide streamline documentation (under GST
connected over the GST Network
GST to pave the way for re-engineering of
supply chain and warehousing network
additional tax burden, companies set up
warehouses in each state as the movement of
goods from manufacturing hub to warehouse or
The unorganised logistics sector has been mostly
out of the tax net and post implementation of the
GST, these companies would incur administrative
prefer to deal with organised players who are more
regime will trigger a shift to an organised logistics
market where the share of business with organised
operators would go up and the small fleet owners
will align themselves with the big operators as an
warehouse location would no longer be based on
tax considerations and instead would be based on
fewer but bigger warehouses and over time there
which fewer but bigger trucks will move between
Warehouse consolidation would also have an the warehouse and the distributor is mostly less
impact on the share of transportation between LTL

goods between the manufacturing hub and naturally decline and the lead distance of LTL
routes would increase
movements, and the movement of goods between

Sales Velocity
decentralised warehousing model to prevent stockouts

Warehouses set up in adjoining states, but close to manufacturing hubs, are

Proximity to
Manufacturing Plant

Logistics Cost as % of Industries with high logistics cost, as a percentage of revenues, would look to
Revenue

Nature of Goods
Transported
easier for goods that have standard dimensions where larger CVs can transport

Input tax credit to lower cost of transport

improve with reduction in turnaround time as
The availability of input tax credit on movement of

logistics company on transportation of

manufactured goods to the retailer will also be

result, the logistics cost would decline to that

express cargo service providers in the present tax structure, express cargo

The express cargo companies mostly transport GST system the tax paid on freight forwarding can
manufactured high value goods, and the effective be used as an input tax credit to offset the tax paid

availability of input tax credit on freight forwarding

movement of goods may be hampered by the

its exact implementation is still unclear
have a provision that allows the authorities to
 has made provisions to curb harassment, but the
Although digitisation of documents would lower
‘human interfacing’ and wait time, draft rules allow
 05
in Road Logistics

Conventional business model likely to be

challenged to enter the logistics industry, while a few like

The road logistics industry carries over 60% of the of the others have adopted an asset light or

the roadways on account of weak core Technology related to route planning, route
infrastructure, high fragmentation and complex optimisation, dispatch planning, driver relay model
tax policies have led to high cost of transport via and scheduling are being deployed by logistics

While anomalies in the taxation regime are services which have helped reduce the turnaround
expected to improve post GST implementation,
operators may express interest in acquiring the

aim to gain market share by addressing the various

 Company Rivigo Zinka Logistics Ecom Express Delhivery
Total Investment

Sands Capital The Carlyle Group

Accel Partners Tiger Global
Warburg Pincus Warburg Pincus
Key Investors Nexus Venture
Peepul Capital
Global Partners
Apoletto Asia Multiples

Asset Heavy – own Asset light – attached

Business Model
fleet and market place

Segment Last Mile delivery Last Mile delivery

Market place model
USP to connect
Driver relay model for consignors with
better fleet utilization goods goods
transporters

With the domestic road freight sector vast and

Brokers have a deep knowledge about the truckers

and their drivers, which creates a strong loyalty

be able to scale up by using a pure discounting

important in the road transport ecosystem as they

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