Addendum HAWTHORNE

Luigi Vittorio Tava

n° …….
Copyright © SDA Bocconi, Milano
Revised 2018.06
SDA Bocconi School of Management …………
n° ………..

Luigi Vittorio Tava

Addendum HAWTHORNE (§)

- Based on the case assumption an internal expert statistician, using

Bayes rule (see below), derives these new estimates:

TEST OUTCOME

- Prob.(LARGE) = 60%; Prob.(SHORT) = 40%

- And for the actual molecule LENGHT based on the test outcome:

- Test Outcome: LARGE  Prob.(LONG) = 80%;

 Prob.(SHORT) = 20%

- Test Outcome: STANDARD  Prob.(LONG) = 5%;

 Prob.(SHORT) = 95%

Copyright © SDA Bocconi, Milano- Revised 2018.06 2

 SDA Bocconi School of Management …………
n° ………..

Ex ante
(a priori)
Probability
Conditional outcome of TEST

Joint probab. =
Cross Product 96% * 50% = 48% 4% * 50% = 2%
Reversed Conditional =
= Ratio
48 / 60 = 80.0% 2 / 40 = 5.0%

Joint probab. = 24% * 50% = 12%

Cross Product 76% * 50% = 38%
Reversed Conditional =
= Ratio 12 / 60 = 20.0% 38 / 40 = 95.0%

Large: Standard:
Test Outcome
48% + 12% = 60% 2% + 38% = 40%

Copyright © SDA Bocconi, Milano- Revised 2018.06 3