English Premier League’s Biggest Spenders and Player Foreca

Group No.10_A046_Radhika Sarawagi_FYBSc - A

Group No.10_A047_Raima Kukreja_FYBSc - A
Group No.10_A049_Rishikesh Parwani_FYBSC - A
Group No.10_A050_Rohit Mutha_FYBSC - A

Objective

Quantitative Techniques - 2

First Year - Semester 2

Faculty Name : Veerendra Anchan

 and Player Forecasting

agi_FYBSc - A
a_FYBSc - A
ni_FYBSC - A
_FYBSC - A

-2

Anchan
EPL is a football league system which was commenced in 1992 and is still one o
premier sports leagues. In this a total of 20 teams each play each other twice, ov
season that runs from August through May. The goals scored by the clubs, the g
money spent on buying players are some of the factors which determine where
the league that year. We have collected information related to all 49 clubs for
including the current year. As the current season has not been completed y
Coronavirus outbreak,we have taken the data as available. We have also collect
their position in all the seasons. In order to reach an answer for our topic, we wi
transfer spending by the clubs using different analysis.

Rank and Percentile analysis is used to analyse the financial decision making of
ascertain whether the money they have spent have yielded fruitful results. Us
smoothing, predictions have been made for the possible transfer spendings of
future for 3 seasons. Regression analysis has also been conducted to find an
correlation between the variables. Factor analysis on the other hand is also done
the regression.
992 and is still one of the most famous
each other twice, over the course of a
d by the clubs, the goals conceded, the
ch determine where a club finishes in
ed to all 49 clubs for all the seasons
ot been completed yet due to the
We have also collected their points and
for our topic, we will be analyzing net
fferent analysis.

decision making of the clubs, so as to

d fruitful results. Using exponential
ansfer spendings of the clubs in the
onducted to find an equation and a
er hand is also done in order to support
Paste your actual data
 RADHIKA SARAWAGI - A046

CLUB EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING

Year Chelsea- Expenses ( £ in million) Chelsea Expo Forecast
1992-1993 2.63 #N/A
1993-1994 3.46 2.63
1994-1995 5.52 3.45
1995-1996 1.71 5.49
1996-1997 14.01 1.77
1997-1998 16.02 13.81
1998-1999 17.37 15.98
1999-2000 23.72 17.35
2000-2001 47.15 23.61
2001-2002 40.32 46.76
2002-2003 0 40.43
2003-2004 152.28 0.67
2004-2005 149.76 149.76
2005-2006 82.35 149.76
2006-2007 80.08 83.47
2007-2008 53.1 80.14
2008-2009 36.14 53.55
2009-2010 27 36.43
2010-2011 109.35 27.16
2011-2012 86.81 107.98
2012-2013 98.73 87.16
2013-2014 117.32 98.54
2014-2015 123.93 117.01
2015-2016 81.45 123.81
2016-2017 119.52 82.15
2017-2018 234.45 118.90
2018-2019 187.92 232.53
2019-2020 40.5 188.66
2020-2021 42.96
2021-2022 0.71
2022-2023 0.01

Contained Outliers
and thus used MAE
instead of MSE to
optimize the value
of constant.
Excel cannot calculate the smoothed value
for the first data point because there is no
previous data point. The smoothed value
for the second data point equals the
 Contained Outliers
and thus used MAE
instead of MSE to Excel cannot calculate the smoothed value
optimize the value for the first data point because there is no
of constant. previous data point. The smoothed value
for the second data point equals the
previous data point.

Year Manchester United - Expenses ( £ in million) Manchester United Expo Forecast

1992-1993 8.94 #NA

1993-1994 7.65 8.94
1994-1995 10.64 8.31
1995-1996 0.52 9.45
1996-1997 10.10 5.08
1997-1998 12.20 7.54
1998-1999 40.28 9.82
1999-2000 7.16 24.72
2000-2001 10.53 16.13
2001-2002 42.25 13.39
2002-2003 43.68 27.51
2003-2004 50.87 35.42
2004-2005 55.13 42.98
2005-2006 28.62 48.93
2006-2007 24.48 38.99
2007-2008 93.15 31.89
2008-2009 40.73 61.86
2009-2010 24.57 51.52
2010-2011 26.37 38.34
2011-2012 56.07 32.48
2012-2013 68.81 44.02
2013-2014 69.42 56.15
2014-2015 175.82 62.64
2015-2016 140.40 118.02
2016-2017 166.50 128.97
2017-2018 178.56 147.33
2018-2019 74.43 162.61
2019-2020 192.60 119.47
2020-2021 155.25
2021-2022 79.29
2022-2023 40.49
 EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING: It is method of Time Serious Analysis t
averages and to provide short-term forecasts. The method used below is know
and is suitable for forecasting data with no clea

Where the forecast for the period T+1 is a w

and the forecast for period T and thus the w

The Alpha is the smoothing parameter that defines the wei

component reacts to current conditions. Lower weights give
data, which produces a smoother line and visa versa. However
MAE (Mean Average Er

Note the graph changes with the

club. It can be done through EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING
250 chooking the club name from the
drop donw list in cell B5.

200

150

100

50

0
1992- 1993- 1994- 1995- 1996- 1997- 1998- 1999- 2000- 2001- 2002- 2003- 2004- 2005- 2006- 2007- 2008- 2009- 2010- 2011- 2012- 201
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 201

Column B Column C

Forecasted Values of
Future Net Transfer
d value expenditure by the clubs The smoothing plot follows an increasing tre
e is no for the year 2020-2021, following for football over the years which cr
value 2021-2022 and 2022- The smoothing plot (forecast value) closely fo
2023.
the while for some it comparatively follows lik
 Forecasted Values of
Future Net Transfer
d value expenditure by the clubs The smoothing plot follows an increasing tre
e is no for the year 2020-2021, following for football over the years which cr
value 2021-2022 and 2022- The smoothing plot (forecast value) closely fo
2023.
the while for some it comparatively follows lik
comparatively follow of the smoo

Tottenham
Arsenal- Arsenal Chelsea- Liverpool- Tottenham
Expenses ( Expo Expenses Chelsea Expenses Liverpool Hotspur- Hotspur
£ in Forecas ( £ in Expo ( £ in Expo Expenses Expo
Forecast Forecast ( £ in
million) t million) million) million) Forecast

4.14 #N/A 2.63 #N/A 3.74 #N/A 6.03 #N/A

1.15 4.14 3.46 2.63 7.20 3.74 3.98 6.03
6.46 1.20 5.52 3.45 10.85 4.47 8.42 5.60
16.52 6.37 1.71 5.49 17.33 5.82 12.03 6.19
5.50 16.35 14.01 1.77 3.15 8.26 7.43 7.43
19.82 5.68 16.02 13.81 16.70 7.18 15.93 7.43
16.83 19.58 17.37 15.98 12.04 9.19 8.80 9.23
20.39 16.88 23.72 17.35 49.05 9.80 15.30 9.14
50.67 20.33 47.15 23.61 30.60 18.11 23.17 10.44
29.42 50.17 40.32 46.76 28.41 20.76 25.25 13.14
9.65 29.76 0.00 40.43 28.35 22.38 9.45 15.70
27.56 9.98 152.28 0.67 14.09 23.64 26.78 14.38
11.23 27.27 149.76 149.76 52.56 21.62 42.41 17.01
41.40 11.50 82.35 149.76 39.65 28.17 32.86 22.39
13.50 40.90 80.08 83.47 41.40 30.60 54.90 24.60
27.86 13.96 53.10 80.14 81.63 32.89 84.74 31.02
36.14 27.63 36.14 53.55 64.31 43.21 128.21 42.40
10.80 36.00 27.00 36.43 39.15 47.68 36.27 60.57
20.70 11.22 109.35 27.16 87.95 45.87 23.94 55.43
58.93 20.54 86.81 107.98 59.87 54.79 8.51 48.76
50.40 58.29 98.73 87.16 63.54 55.86 65.93 40.23
44.33 50.53 117.32 98.54 52.29 57.49 110.27 45.68
107.25 44.43 123.93 117.01 136.29 56.39 43.63 59.36
23.85 106.21 81.45 123.81 113.85 73.31 63.90 56.03
101.74 25.22 119.52 82.15 71.91 81.90 75.15 57.69
137.57 100.47 234.45 118.90 156.49 79.78 109.35 61.39
72.14 136.95 187.92 232.53 163.98 96.03 0.00 71.55
141.66 73.22 40.50 188.66 10.40 110.42 133.65 56.39
140.52 42.96 89.24 72.76
2.34 0.71 70.34 57.35
0.04 0.01 55.44 45.20
 Time Serious Analysis to smooth out data by calculating exponentially weighted
thod used below is known as - SINGLE/SIMPLE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING
ecasting data with no clear trend or seasonal pattern.

for the period T+1 is a weighted average of the actual value observations in period T
r period T and thus the weights decay exponentially as the observations get older.

meter that defines the weighting. The weights adjust the amount of smoothing by defining how ea
ns. Lower weights give less weight to recent data while giving more weights to previously smoo
and visa versa. However, to objectively find the optimized alpha value, minimization of errors is
MAE (Mean Average Error) is minimized in the below method.

AL SMOOTHING
Forecasted Graph
of Future Net
Transfer Fee
showing a
downward trend
i.e. each year the
clubs would be
spending less in
the transfer of
players.

- 2007- 2008- 2009- 2010- 2011- 2012- 2013- 2014- 2015- 2016- 2017- 2018- 2019- 2020- 2021- 2022-
REASONS: Achived the
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Stable Squad. Buying
players from the low
nB Column C
position clubs compared to
selling players at a high
fee.

lows an increasing trend in general over the years. This may be because of increasing
ver the years which creates the demand for certain players high and thus their prices ri
ecast value) closely follows the actual data for some of the clubs like Arsenal and Che
mparatively follows like Manchester United and Manchester City. And this closely and
 New Castle
Everton- Manchester New Castle Aston Villa-
Expenses Everton City- Manchester United- United Expenses Aston Villa
( £ in Expo Expenses ( £ City Expo Expenses Expo ( £ in Expo
Forecast Forecast ( £ in Forecast
million) in million) million) Forecast million)

0.11 #N/A 0.52 #N/A 0.00 #N/A 3.53 #N/A

1.94 0.11 6.83 0.52 7.36 0.00 3.83 3.53
10.89 0.71 2.25 4.43 9.79 2.08 6.60 3.63
15.53 4.07 10.59 3.08 22.14 4.25 9.96 4.60
9.68 7.85 0.00 7.74 25.74 9.30 7.29 6.35
7.13 8.46 0.00 2.94 30.23 13.94 9.45 6.66
26.42 8.02 0.00 1.12 37.22 18.54 37.85 7.57
7.11 14.09 0.00 0.42 23.81 23.81 8.64 17.46
31.03 11.79 0.00 0.16 23.32 23.81 21.06 14.58
9.45 18.14 0.00 0.06 28.43 23.67 23.49 16.69
12.35 15.27 40.01 0.02 31.10 25.01 8.17 18.91
9.06 14.31 14.90 24.82 0.00 26.73 7.54 15.41
10.69 12.58 1.35 18.67 26.51 19.19 7.96 12.84
29.27 11.95 11.23 7.93 55.13 21.25 14.89 11.24
16.11 17.67 5.85 9.98 28.69 30.81 22.23 12.43
33.80 17.15 70.16 7.42 34.07 30.21 22.41 15.63
22.57 22.65 141.62 46.32 31.66 31.30 50.31 17.85
20.97 22.62 132.57 105.41 0.00 31.40 42.21 28.45
1.70 22.08 165.24 122.25 12.58 22.54 33.66 32.94
6.48 15.35 81.95 148.90 23.45 19.73 18.30 33.18
19.49 12.42 55.76 107.39 31.97 20.78 25.05 28.32
28.62 14.76 104.40 75.38 3.42 23.94 17.86 27.25
36.14 19.33 92.52 93.37 40.52 18.15 12.11 24.18
44.01 24.88 187.38 92.84 97.12 24.46 59.90 20.24
77.40 31.19 192.15 151.46 0.00 44.97 0.00 33.19
182.88 46.44 285.75 176.69 39.87 32.28 0.00 22.35
89.82 91.47 70.73 244.31 53.78 34.42 0.00 15.05
107.91 90.92 150.14 136.69 65.61 39.88 143.19 10.14
96.53 145.03 47.14 53.58
64.67 55.11 33.84 36.09
43.33 20.94 24.29 24.30
 zoom out
to 80% for
best view

by defining how each

to previously smoothed
mization of errors is done.

ecasted Graph
Future Net
ransfer Fee
showing a
wnward trend
each year the
bs would be
nding less in
e transfer of
players.

NS: Achived the

Squad. Buying
from the low
ubs compared to
layers at a high
fee.

use of increasing fan

thus their prices rise.
e Arsenal and Chelsea,
nd this closely and
West Ham
West Ham
United- United
Expenses Expo
( £ in
million) Forecast

0.00 #N/A
3.13 0.00
5.38 1.02
4.25 2.45 HEADER NAME
11.88 3.03 CLUB NAMES
11.34 5.92 Manchester United - Expenses ( £ in million
9.98 7.69 Arsenal- Expenses ( £ in million)
7.04 8.44 Chelsea- Expenses ( £ in million)
16.72 7.98 Liverpool- Expenses ( £ in million)
19.85 10.84 Tottenham Hotspur- Expenses ( £ in million
0.36 13.78 Everton- Expenses ( £ in million)
0.00 9.40 Manchester City- Expenses ( £ in million)
0.00 6.33 New Castle United- Expenses ( £ in million)
19.43 4.26 Aston Villa- Expenses ( £ in million)
62.87 9.21 West Ham United- Expenses ( £ in million)
41.94 26.73
14.40 31.70
19.49 26.05
14.24 23.91
0.00 20.75
21.51 13.98
21.60 16.44
31.64 18.12
47.43 22.54
75.15 30.66
51.12 45.19
84.51 47.13
99.18 59.33
72.34
48.72
32.81
 HEADER NAME
EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING NAME ALPHA MAE
Manchester United Expo Forecast 0.489 27.12
Arsenal Expo Forecast 0.983 26.42
Chelsea Expo Forecast 0.983 33.49
Liverpool Expo Forecast 0.212 25.2
Tottenham Hotspur Expo Forecast 0.212 25.89
Everton Expo Forecast 0.327 15.26
Manchester City Expo Forecast 0.624 33.74
New Castle United Expo Forecast 0.282 16.28
Aston Villa Expo Forecast 0.327 16.24
West Ham United Expo Forecast 0.327 14.29
If required, then only Dashboard
Overall Conclusion