Internal Assignment for April 2022

(Decision science)

Ans-1

Introduction

Exponential smoothing is a forecasting techniques which is basically used to weight data from
previous time periods with exponentially decreasing importance in the forecast. Exponential
smoothing is accomplished by multiplying the actual value for the present time period a long
sequence checking method for univariate statistics that may loosen up to assist an orderly
infrequent element.

Exponential smoothing= Ft+1= α.Xt+(1- α).Ft

Where :

Ft+1=Forecast of next time period

Ft=Present time forecast
Xt=the actual value for present time period
Α= Value between 0 to 1 ,as exponential smoothing constant.

Now as per the details provided Alpha (α) values are 0.2, 0.5 and 0.7

Here since no forecast is given for first time period therefore considering actual value of first
period as forecast for the second period i.e 532.7.

After applying smoothing constant of 0.2 in the formula as mentioned above the details will be
as followed for exponential smoothing.

F1 = X1 = 532.7
F2 = 0.2*X2 + 0.8*F1
= 0.2*(539.95)+0.8*(532.7)= 534.15

F3= 0.2*X3 + 0.1*F2

=0.2*(556.4)+0.8*(534.15)=538.6

F4=0.2*X4 + 0.1*F3
=0.2*(565.77)+0.8*(538.6)
=544.03

F5 = 0.2*X5 + 0.1*F4
0.2*(609.18)+0.8*(544.03)
 =557.06
Putting entire number in the below mentioned table .
Similarly for 0.5 and 0.7 the value will be as followed

  If a=0.2 If a=0.5 If a=0.7

Coal
–
Coal MSR Coal MSE Coal MSE
(Milli MSE( MSE( MSE(
Year projection( Squa projection squar projection( squar
on Mt-Ft) Mt-Ft) Mt-Ft)
Ft) re (Ft) e Ft) e
Tones
)-Mt
2010-11 532.7                  
539.9
2011-12 532.7 7.25 52.56 532.7 7.25 52.56 532.7 7.25 52.56
5
495.0 403.0 346.8
2012-13 556.4 534.15 22.25 536.325 20.075 537.775 18.625
6 1 9
565.7 738.2 19.407 376.6 14.957 223.7
2013-14 538.6 27.17 546.3625 550.8125
7 1 5 5 5 3
609.1 53.113 2821. 47.897 2294.
2014-15 544.034 65.146 4244 556.06625 561.2828
8 75 07 2 15
639.2 56.606 3204. 44.419 1973.
2015-16 557.06 82.17 6751 582.62315 594.8108
3 85 34 2 06
2016-
    MSE 2456   MSE 1372   MSE 978
2017 

For a=0.2
MSE for 2016-2017=Average mean of
MSE={(7.25*7.25)+(22.25*22.25)+(27.17*27.17)+(65.146*65.146)+(82.17*82.17)}/5=2456
Similarly for 0.5 and 0.7 it will be 1372 and 978 for COAL .

Now for Lignite :

Putting all the value in formula and getting it calculate in excel as per the abnove mentioned
steps, the value and projection will be as followed
     If a=0.2 If a=0.5 If a=0.7

Lignite Lignite MSR Lignite MSE Lignite

MSE( MSE( MSE( MSE
Year (Million projection( Squa projection squar projection
Mt-Ft) Mt-Ft) Mt-Ft) square
Tones) Ft) re (Ft) e (Ft)

2010-
37.73 37.73     37.73     37.73    
11
2011-
42.33 37.73 4.6 21.16 37.73 4.6 21.16 37.73 4.6 21.16
12
2012-
46.45 38.65 7.8 60.84 40.03 6.42 41.22 40.95 5.5 30.25
13
2013-
44.27 40.21 4.06 16.48 43.24 1.03 1.06 44.8 -0.53 0.28
14
2014-
48.27 41.02 7.25 52.53 43.76 4.52 20.39 44.43 3.84 14.75
15
2015-
43.84 42.47 1.37 1.87 46.0 i1 -2.17 4.72 47.12 -3.28 10.74
16
 2016
    MSE 30.58   MSE 17.71   MSE 15.44
-2017

Conclusion
As Smoothing constant with value of 0.7 gives least number of MSE and best value for
projection there it is considered best alpha for projection.
.
Ans-2
Introduction

Decision is the tree Diagram which is majorly used to take a right decision in the business .
These are real coins, addressing, and choice test parts in school classes. Be that as it may,
different student and graduates dismiss liking their thought, despite the fact that these
quantifiable portrayals accept an indispensable issue in organization cash and financial checking.
The enormous binomial models comprehend that the main resource's cost will raise or fall
pondering last expected outcomes on the advancement date of the countries' determination.
Decision Trees and Industry/Corporate Analysis
Decision Tree for for Raman Pahwa based on provided table will be as followed.
Ans 2 B

E.M.V. Decision
An association's works are viewed as property on its cash related record in bookkeeping. Across
the peak of a book-keeping period, a representative "hints".
The confirmations to their present market cost to show up at the accomplishment commercial
center worth the declarations.
.
EMV of Lakshmi private limited will be as followed
= 0.4*(55) + 0.4*(26)
= 32.4
EMV of Mehta Group of ventures will be as followed
= 0.1*(43) + 0.1*(38)
= 8.1
EMV of Surya will be as followed
= 0.3*(29) + 0.3*(43)
= 21.6
EMV of LT energy will be as followed
= 0.2*(15) + 0.2*(51)
= 13.2
As per the result mentioned above it can be seen that Lakshmi has the most raised EMV and the
Mehta Has the Lowest EMV

Question 3 (A)

Introduction

As per question p=55% i.e 0.55 and

No of voters(n)=500.
Now Mean of μp^=p, as p is normally distributed with it.

Therefore as per standard deviation:- σp^=√ p (1−p ) /n

i.e. P(p^ < 0.49 )=P(Z < 0.49-0.55/√ 0.55 ( 1−0.55 ) /500 )

therefore ≈ P(Z < -2.6968) ≈ 0.0035 (Probability)

Conclusion:- Based on above figure ,probability of 35% comes that in a rondom sample of 500 voters
less than 49% say they will vote for incumbent.

Ans 3 (B)
A) What is the probability that a tire wears out before 70,000 KMs?

As provided in the question

Mean(μ) = 82000

And SD(σ) = 6400

X~N(82000,6400^2)

a) Now P(X<70000)

therefore P(X<70000) = P[(X – μ) < (70000 – μ)]

σ σ

P(X<70000) = P[(X – μ) < (70000 – 82000)]

σ 6400

P(X<70000) = P(Z < -12000/6400)

P(X<70000) = P(Z < -1.875)

P(X<70000) = 0.0303964…………..From standard normal table

What is the probability that a tire lasts more than 100,000 KMs?

b)therefore P(X>100000)

Using Z table
P(X>100000)
= P[(X – μ) < (100000 – μ)]
σ σ

P(X>100000)
= P[(X – μ) < (100000 – 82000)]
σ 6400

P(X>100000)
= P(Z < 18000/6400)

P(X>100000)
= P(Z < 2.8125)

P(X>100000) = 0.0024579

Therefore, the probability of a tire wears out before 100,000 miles is 0.0 0245