LUPIN PHARMA

Trend analysis :
From 2010 we can see that the stock prices are rising at a steady mode and is
not stable. From 2014 we can see that the stock prices are rising very fast such
that the trend is moving upwards. Each day the prices are either rising or
declining therefore the data set is volatile. From 2017-2020 the stock prices are
declining.

Return value analysis

Here we can see that the mean is constant over the period of time. But by
looking at the graph we cannot conclude the exact percentage change in return
value therefore we apply dickey fullers test to know whether the values are
stationary or moving.
DICKEY FULLER TEST

To know about that whether to accept the past data or not we have to
make a hypothesis which are mentioned below:
HYPOTHESIS
H0= A=1(NON-STATIONARY)
H1=A IS NOT EQUAL TO 1(STATIONARY)

p-value > 0.05: Accept null hypothesis (H0), the data has a unit root and
is non-stationary.
p-value <= 0.05: Reject the null hypothesis (H0), the data does not have a
unit root and is stationary.

P value = 0.0
Alpha value = 0.05

By performing the test, we found that the p value is less than alpha value
which means that A is not equal to 1 so we reject the null hypothesis and
conclude that return of the stock is in stationary form and fit for the
forecasting model

AUTO REGRESSIVE MOVING AVERAGE

ARMA model is simply the merger between AR(p) and MA(q) models:
AR(p) models try to explain the momentum and mean reversion effects
often observed in trading markets (market participant effects).
MA(q) models try to capture the shock effects observed in the white noise
terms. These shock effects could be thought of as unexpected events
affecting the observation process e.g. Surprise earnings, wars, attacks,
etc.

CONDITIONS FOR CHOOSING THE BEST ARMA MODEL

1. We will choose that MODEL that has low AIC value of among the
model that we had perform by using different P and Q values.

P = Auto regressive
 Q =Moving Average

MODEL = ARMA (1, 0) gives the lowest ACI value and we will
choose that ARMA model for the forecasting.

Above model give us the AIC of -14295.175 which is of lowest all

model.

Coefficient of slope (moving average) is 0.0242 which tells that if

there is a change of 1 in the past value of data then there is a change of
0.0242 in the forecasted value.

Standard Error= 0.019 which means that the difference between the
actual value and forecasted value of the series over the number of
observations.

SYNCOM PHARMA
Trend analysis :
From 2010 we can see that the stock prices are rising exponentially. But after
that we can see that the stock prices are very unstable and the data is very
volatile.
Return value analysis
Here we can see that the mean is constant over the period of time. But by
looking at the graph we cannot conclude the exact percentage change in return
value therefore we apply dickey fullers test to know whether the values are
stationary or moving.
DICKEY FULLER TEST

To know about that whether to accept the past data or not we have to
make a hypothesis which are mentioned below:
HYPOTHESIS
H0= A=1(NON-STATIONARY)
H1=A IS NOT EQUAL TO 1(STATIONARY)

p-value > 0.05: Accept null hypothesis (H0), the data has a unit root and
is non-stationary.
p-value <= 0.05: Reject the null hypothesis (H0), the data does not have a
unit root and is stationary.

P value = 0.0
Alpha value = 0.05

By performing the test, we found that the p value is less than alpha value
which means that A is not equal to 1 so we reject the null hypothesis and
conclude that return of the stock is in stationary form and fit for the
forecasting model

AUTO REGRESSIVE MOVING AVERAGE

ARMA model is simply the merger between AR(p) and MA(q) models:
AR(p) models try to explain the momentum and mean reversion effects
often observed in trading markets (market participant effects).
MA(q) models try to capture the shock effects observed in the white noise
terms. These shock effects could be thought of as unexpected events
affecting the observation process e.g. Surprise earnings, wars, attacks,
etc.

CONDITIONS FOR CHOOSING THE BEST ARMA MODEL

2. We will choose that MODEL that has low AIC value of among the
model that we had perform by using different P and Q values.

P = Auto regressive
 Q =Moving Average

MODEL = ARMA (1, 0) gives the lowest ACI value and we will
choose that ARMA model for the forecasting.

Above model give us the AIC of 11936.469 which is of lowest all

model.

Coefficient of slope (moving average) is -0.0004 which tells that if

there is a change of 1 in the past value of data then there is a change of
-0.0004 in the forecasted value.

Standard Error= 0.019 which means that the difference between the
actual value and forecasted value of the series over the number of
observations.

FORECAST THE STOCK RETURN OF THE BALPHARMA

Following are the steps that we had considered for the ARMA model fit test for
the forecasting:
 1. LOOKING THE TREND – By analysing the below graph we could say
that price of stock is not stable and there is high fluctuation of the stock
price especially from 2014 to 2019 and overall, we could say that there
is an increasing trend if we compare data from 2010-2014 and 2015-
2019.

2.LOOKING THE RETURN TREND -By looking at the below graph we

found that the trend we found out that the mean is constant, and variance is
constant. However, looking at the graph only we cannot say whether the time
series is stationary or non- stationary, so we must perform Diceky fuller test
to know about the stationary.
2. DICKEY FULLER TEST

To know about that whether to accept the past data or not we have to
make a hypothesis which are mentioned below:
HYPOTHESIS
H0= A=1(NON-STATIONARY)
H1=A IS NOT EQUAL TO 1(STATIONARY)

p-value > 0.05: Fail to reject the null hypothesis (H0), the data has a unit
root and is non-stationary.
p-value <= 0.05: Reject the null hypothesis (H0), the data does not have a
unit root and is stationary.
P value = 0.0
Alpha Value = 0.05

By performing the test, we found that the p value is less than alpha value
which means that A is not equal to1 so we reject the null hypothesis and
conclude that return of the stock is in stationary form and fit for the
forecasting model .

AUTO REGRESSIVE MOVING AVERAGE

ARMA model is simply the merger between AR(p) and MA(q) models:
AR(p) models try to explain the momentum and mean reversion effects
often observed in trading markets (market participant effects).
MA(q) models try to capture the shock effects observed in the white noise
terms. These shock effects could be thought of as unexpected events
affecting the observation process e.g. Surprise earnings, wars, attacks,
etc.

CONDITIONS FOR CHOOSING THE BEST ARMA MODEL

3. We will choose that MODEL that has lowest AIC value of amongst
the all model that we had perform by using different P and Q values.

P = Auto regressive
Q =Moving Average

MODEL = ARMA (1, 0) gives the lowest ACI value and we will
choose that ARMA model for the forecasting.

Above model give us the AIC of -9301.692 which is of lowest all

model.

Coefficient of slope (moving average) is .0.0143 which tells that if

there is a change of 1 in the past value of data then there is a change of
.0143 in the forecasted value.
 Standard Error= .020 which means that the difference between the
actual value and forecasted value of the series over the number of
observations.

KREBS_BIOCHEM

Following are the steps that we had considered for the ARMA model fit test for
the forecasting:
1. LOOKING THE TREND – By analysing the below graph we could say
that price of stock is not stable and there is high fluctuation of the stock
price especially from 2015 to 2020.However stock has increased
drastically during 2015 which was around 140 and it was increased to 200
during 2018 but we could also conclude that price has decreased in 2019
from 200 to 70.

2.LOOKING THE RETURN TREND -By looking at the below graph we

found that the trend we found out that the mean is constant, and variance is
constant. However, looking at the graph only we cannot say whether the time
series is stationary or non- stationary, so we must perform Dicky fuller test
to know about the stationary.
3. DICKEY FULLER TEST

To know about that whether to accept the past data or not we have to
make a hypothesis which are mentioned below:
HYPOTHESIS
H0= A=1(NON-STATIONARY)
H1=A IS NOT EQUAL TO 1(STATIONARY)

p-value > 0.05: Fail to reject the null hypothesis (H0), the data has a unit
root and is non-stationary.
p-value <= 0.05: Reject the null hypothesis (H0), the data does not have a
unit root and is stationary.

P value = 6.4982
Alpha Value = 0.05

By performing the test, we found that the p value is more than alpha
value which means that A is equal to 1 so we accept the null hypothesis
and conclude that return of the stock is in non-stationary form.
AUTO REGRESSIVE MOVING AVERAGE

ARMA model is simply the merger between AR(p) and MA(q) models:
AR(p) models try to explain the momentum and mean reversion effects
often observed in trading markets (market participant effects).
MA(q) models try to capture the shock effects observed in the white noise
terms. These shock effects could be thought of as unexpected events
affecting the observation process e.g. Surprise earnings, wars, attacks,
etc.

CONDITIONS FOR CHOOSING THE BEST ARMA MODEL

4. We will choose that MODEL that has lowest AIC value of amongst
the all model that we had perform by using different P and Q values.

P = Auto regressive
Q =Moving Average

MODEL = ARMA (1, 0) gives the lowest ACI value and we will
choose that ARMA model for the forecasting.
Above model give us the AIC of -9948.7669 which is of lowest all
model.

Coefficient of slope (moving average) is 0.0124which tells that if

there is a change of 1 in the past value of data then there is a change of
.0143 in the forecasted value.

Standard Error= .020 which means that the difference between the
actual value and forecasted value of the series over the number of
observations.
 Parenteral Drug

1. LOOKING THE TREND –By analysing the below graph we came

to know that stock price of the company is on decreasing trend i.,e
the price of the stock is decreasing year after year as it was around
400 during 2011-12 however is has fallen down drastically below 50
in 2018.
2.LOOKING THE RETURN TREND -By looking at the below graph we
found that the trend we found out that the mean is constant, and variance is
constant. However, looking at the graph only we cannot say whether the time
series is stationary or non- stationary, so we must perform Dicky fuller test
to know about the stationary.

4. DICKEY FULLER TEST

To know about that whether to accept the past data or not we have to
make a hypothesis which are mentioned below:
HYPOTHESIS
H0= A=1(NON-STATIONARY)
H1=A IS NOT EQUAL TO 1(STATIONARY)

p-value > 0.05: Fail to reject the null hypothesis (H0), the data has a unit
root and is non-stationary.
p-value <= 0.05: Reject the null hypothesis (H0), the data does not have a
unit root and is stationary.
P value = 0.0
Alpha Value = 0.05

By performing the test, we found that the p value is less than alpha value
which means that A is not equal to 1 so we reject the null hypothesis and
conclude that return of the stock is in stationary form and fit for the
forecasting model.

AUTO REGRESSIVE MOVING AVERAGE

ARMA model is simply the merger between AR(p) and MA(q) models:
AR(p) models try to explain the momentum and mean reversion effects
often observed in trading markets (market participant effects).
MA(q) models try to capture the shock effects observed in the white noise
terms. These shock effects could be thought of as unexpected events
affecting the observation process e.g. Surprise earnings, wars, attacks,
etc.

CONDITIONS FOR CHOOSING THE BEST ARMA MODEL

5. We will choose that MODEL that has lowest AIC value of amongst
the all model that we had perform by using different P and Q values.

P = Auto regressive
Q =Moving Average

MODEL = ARMA (1, 0) gives the lowest ACI value and we will
choose that ARMA model for the forecasting.
Above model give us the AIC of -7810.193 which is of lowest all
model.

Coefficient of slope (moving average) is 0.1288 which tells that if

there is a change of 1 in the past value of data then there is a change of
.1288 in the forecasted value.

Standard Error= .021 which means that the difference between the
actual value and forecasted value of the series over the number of
observations.