IR Political Risk Syllab

Dr.
Frank Plantan, Jr
International Relations Program.
636 Williams Hall/6305
Tel.: (215) 898-0453
Email: fplantan@sas.upenn.edu
International Relations 250

Political Risk Analysis
Syllabus
Spring 2009
Course Description
Imagine yourself as the chief executive of a major corporation seeking to expand your
business overseas. As you look abroad, you see large markets and a world full of opportunity
for your company. But you also observe a rapidly changing and sometimes threatening global
business environment characterized by political and economic risk and uncertainty. You face
foreign publics who are often angry, hostile, and capricious in their tastes; constantly shifting
political winds, aggressive and unpredictable regulators, potentially unreliable business
partners, economic crises and instability, in addition to the risks of terrorism and political
violence.
How will you cope with these problems? What tools and methodologies will you
employ to forecast these risks? What actions will you take to manage and mitigate the
dangers you face? This course will address political risk forecasting and management
methodologies and techniques. The emphasis on the course is practical and applied. Students
will have the opportunity to apply what they learn in real-world case problems and
assignments. The political risk forecasting, research, and management methods covered will
include Standard & Poor’s and Moody’s Sovereign Ratings Systems, the Delphi Method, The
Prince Model, the BERI Model, The Economist Model, The PRS Model, the IES Energy
Model, Political Risk Insurance, Integrated Risk Management, and Enterprise-Wide Risk
Management.
Political Risk Analysis historically involved the assessment of the environment for doing
business abroad and for the execution of international transactions, particularly foreign direct
investment and currency management and arbitrage. More recently it has come to embrace
problems of insurance and reinsurance, protection of personnel, country risk, and opportunity
assessments, scenario building and gaming for strategic planning, and the challenges of
compiling and interpreting intelligence data for government and business. It addresses all the
“hot button” issues in international relations today: crisis management (from Cuban Missile
Crisis to the 9/11 terrorist attacks); the increasing centrality of political-economy and
appropriate methods for integrating political and economic factors in the study of IR (from the
pricing of oil…to the risk of doing business in China…to hedging on investments in Latin
America…to anticipating swings in currency rates); globalization issues in all their
multidimensional complexity; and multinational enterprises and the challenges of doing
business overseas.
Dr. Frank Plantan, Jr
Tel.: (215) 898-0453
War, revolution, terrorism, different forms and changes in government are highly visible
examples of the sources of political risks that confront business, organizations and
governments every day. This course aims to develop your political risk analysis skills in
several ways by bridging theory and academic practice through the use of case-studies,
simulation, and exercises drawn from the real world.
The course also features prominent guest speakers.
NOTE: Sequence of classes, course schedules, and assignments may

be modified as required by special projects, guest lecturers and
outside research or field trips.
Readings:
Most readings will be available either in Blackboard or by a hyperlink embedded in
the syllabus.
I would like you to purchase Against the Gods: The Remarkable Story of Risk, Wiley
Press, 1996 by Peter L. Bernstein. It is available (new and used copies) at Amazon starting at
$7.98:
http://www.amazon.com/Against-Gods-Remarkable-Story-
Risk/dp/0471295639/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1231961481&sr=1-1
Session 1: Wednesday, January 14
1.1 Introduction to Course
• Dr. Plantan Introductions

• Course Content Overview –
• Class Discussion: Why taking course? Interest? Hope to gain?
• Student requirements: Final Project Topics, Course Policies & Grading
Readings:
Lecture Outline: Introductory comments on Risk in Asia
Examples of Political Risk in the News
Assignment: Assignment 1-- Course Preferences and Expectations (see electronic version in
Blackboard)
Assigment 1.2: Bring news clipping that illustrates an issue or case of political risk
In-Class Exercise: Team Building [Handout]

Tel.: (215) 898-0453
No Class Monday, January 19, Martin Luther King Day
2.1 Review:
• Course Issues Discussion (Lecture Outlines, Introduce Examples of Final Projects,
Instructional Methods)
• News Article summaries and sharing
• Student Introduction Activity—beginning Team building exercise
2.2 Definitions &Concepts
• Political Risk: Concept & Definition

• Political Risk Definitions Paraphrase Activity
• What is Political Risk?
• Lead-in Class Discussion on Q.
• The World of Risk & Current Examples
• Political Risk Definitions Activity Review & Discussion
Reading:
• Begin to read Against the Gods.
• “Terrorism worries raise oil tanker security on the Delaware River,” Jennifer
Lin, Knight Ridder Newspapers, in Philadelphia Inquirer, June 1, 2003
• Yukiko Omura, FDI Magazine, “Take Cover to Reduce Risk,” January 5, 2005
2.3 Dimensions of Risk
• 11 Dimensions of Political Risk & Examples

Readings:
Lecture Outline and Notes
Session 3: Monday, January 26

4.1 Review
• Political Risk Definitions Activity Review
• 11 Dimensions of Political Risk Lecture Review (#1-5)
• 11 Dimensions of Political Risk Lecture, Note-Taking
Activity and Discussion (#6-11)
4.2 Value, Risk & Probability I

• Introduction & Definitions
• Fundamental Principles of Risk Management
Readings:
• Taleb and Pilpel, LSE, “Epistemology and Risk Management”

Tel.: (215) 898-0453
• “BERI” in The Handbook of Country Risk Analysis
• The Economist Model (2 pp.)
• The GM Model in Jerry Rogers, ed. Global Risk Assessments, Book 3, pp.172-
77 (6 pp.)
• The IHS Energy Model in PRS Group, The Handbook of Country and Political
Risk Analysis, pp. 367-72 (6 pp.) [HANDOUT]
• "Political Forecasting - The Prince Model," in Lewellyn D. Howell, Ph.D.,
TheHandbook of Country and Political Risk Analysis, 2d ed., (East Syracuse,
NY: The PRS Group, 1998), pp. 305-9 [5 pp.]
4.1 Overview of Political Risk Models
• BERI model
• Political Risk Model One-Page Summary Group Activity
• (Overview of 4 Leading Political Risk Models Jigsaw
Exercise)
• The Economist, IHS, GM, and Prince Models
4.2 Begin Final Project Proposal Topic Guidance & Discussion
a. Must Specify Organization and Specific Project or Activity

b. Commercial Orientation is Customary and Preferable
c. Topic Should Not Be a Conventional International Relations, Diplomacy, or
Strategic Studies Question or Subject
d. Begin With a Risk Inventory
e. Begin to Compile a Bibliography
f. Final Project Proposal Team Activity – Specify Company, Project, and
Primary Risk
g. Final Project Proposal Team Activity Discussion
Readings:
• Final Project Proposal Assignment Guidance and Instructions
• Overview of 15 Leading Political Risk Models (11 pp.)
• Lecture: Political Risk Models Table
• 2a) Review the BERI home page at http://www.beri.com
2b) Review the BERI Business Risk Service at http://www.beri.com/brs-green.html
•
• The PRS Model in PRS Group, The Handbook of Country and Political Risk
Analysis, pp. 291-320 (30 pp.)
• PRS Model applied: Case of Bolivia
• 15 Leading Political Risk Models Internet Links
Tel.: (215) 898-0453
• BERI sample: China
• BERI sample: Indonesia
• Control Risks Group Model Sample Report – Turkey
Assignment:
• Political Risk Model Summaries (Team project)
Session 5: Monday, February 2
5.1 Review
. Distribute and Discuss Assignment – Political Risk Models

One-Page Summary
5.2 Political Risk Models , continued
5.3 Sources & Analytical Methods
• Political Risk Case Study Research Resources

• Political Risk Case Study Research Resources
• Content Analysis and Event Data
Reading:
Political Risk Case Study Research Resources

http://www.rand.org/pubs/monographs/2006/RAND_MG520.pdf
ECCH Case Study materials-I
ECCH Case Study materials-II
Korea-specific Case Studies
[book…..You do not need to read the whole book, only the Appendix and Chapter 5. ]
Session 6: Wednesday, February 4
6.1 Identifying and Interpreting Political Risk
• Political Risk in the East Asian Context Current Examples and

Discussion
71. Review
7.2. Two Political Risk Analysis Objectives – Forecasting & Preventing Losses
Tel.: (215) 898-0453
Required Readings:
• Lange, Scott, “Disaster Planning: The Challenge Within,” Risk Management, (May
o 1998), pp. 34-37 [3 pp.]
• Jablonski, Mark, “When in Doubt, Simulate,” Risk Management (November 1998),
pp. 44-49 [5 pp.]
• Paul K Davis, "Uncertainty-Sensitive Planning"
http://www.rand.org/pubs/monograph_reports/MR1576/MR1576.ch5.pdf
This article gives an excellent introduction to the problem of forward thinking.
• “Forecast” definitions.
8.1. Characteristics of Forecasting Methodologies
In-class activities; collect and review news reports; group meetings on team
selection and project selection
Session 9: Monday, Feburary 16
9.1 . Review
9.2. Delphi Survey Forecasting Method
. Delphi Survey: North Korea exercise and/or terrorism case
North Korean Nuclear and Political Situation Delphi

Assignment (:10)
The Delphi Technique (:20)
North Korea Delphi Questionnaire Group Activity (:20)
North Korea Delphi Questionnaire Discussion (:15)
Required Readings:
• Lecture: additional and complementary notes
• RAND Delphi Study Sample – Tim H. Murphy and Robert Terry, Jr. “Opportunities
and Obstacles for Distance Education in Agricultural Education,
• Ongoing Nuclear Crisis Leads to Rise in South Korean Defense Budget, 9/23/03.
• Newsome, Bruce, “Mass Casualty Terrorism: First Quarter Forecast” University of
Reading Terrorism Forecasting Group, March 17, 2003.
[These assignments are being revised]:

• North Korea Delphi Questionnaire and Experts List Assignment Feedback
Tel.: (215) 898-0453
• Question Response Processing Spreadsheet
10.1 Cases of Sovereign Risk Rating
National Income Accounting & Balance of Payments

Influence of North Korean Nuclear Situation on South
Korean Sovereign Ratings Activity
Sovereign Risk Ratings: Moody’s
Required Readings:
• International Economics Basic Concepts Reading – Balance of Payments [4 pp.]

• Sovereign Ratings Alignment Key - Moody's, S&P, WMRC
• WMRC Sovereign Ratings Methodology
• Standard and Poor’s Rating Outlook of Korea in 1997
• Ongoing Nuclear Crisis Leads to Rise in South Korean Defense
Budget, 9/23/03.
• North Korea Learning the “S” Word (“sale”)
• “South Korea’s Outsized Role” Bloomberg News
• Moody's South Korea Sovereign Rating Press Release
• Bank One’s International Risk Update: Country Risk Management, February 2003
(section on North Korea)
Moody's Kuwait Sovereign Rating Press Release
Research Resources:
1) Moody’s Investors Service Website - www.moodys.com

a) Register to obtain a username and password for access to the site.
b) From the Moody’s Investors Services Homepage at www.moodys.com
select the About Moody’s link button
then select the Ratings Definitions button
c) Read the following sections under Ratings Definitions:
Moody's Credit Ratings

Introduction
Long-Term Obligation Ratings
Medium-Term Note Ratings
Short-Term Ratings
Issuer Ratings
Tel.: (215) 898-0453
Country Ceilings for Foreign Currency Obligations
Country Ceilings for Foreign Currency Bank Deposits
Country Guidelines for Local Currency Obligations
Other Ratings, Policies and Procedures

Watchlist
Ratings Methodology
Understanding Moody's Corporate Bond Ratings And Rating
Process
The Bond Rating Process: A Progress Report
The Bond Rating Process In A Changing Environment
The Evolving Meaning of Moody's Bond Ratings
11.1 Review
11.2 Enterprise Wide Approach to Risk Management (ERM)

o Integrated Strategic Risk Management Plans
o Posco ERM Plan – Research Plan Examples Discussion
Required Readings:
• Busman, Evan R. and Paul Van Zuidin, “The Challenge: Adopting an Enterprise-Wide
Approach to Risk,” Risk Management, (January 1998), pp. 14-17 [2 pp.]
• Thornhill, Will and Amy Derksen, “Creating Integrated Risk Plans: A United
Approach,” Risk Management (August 1998), pp. 37-40 [3 pp.]
• “From the Ground Up,” Risk Management, (December 1998), pp. 48-51 [2 pp.]
• Matheson, David and Jim Matheson, “Get Smart About Big Risks,” Risk
Management, (September 1998), pp. 73-76 [3 pp.]
• Knight, Rory F., and Deborah J. Pretty, “Value at Risk: The Effects of Catastrophe on
Share Price,” Risk Management, (May 1998), pp. 39-41 [3 pp.]
• Enterprise Risk Map Template
• Enterprise Risk Mapping: Alternatives in Practice
o ERM Techniques and Tools for Effective Implementation From
Knowledgeleader by Proviti
12.1 Enterprise Wide Approach to Risk Management (ERM), Continued
o Integrated Strategic Risk Management Plans

Tel.: (215) 898-0453
o Posco ERM Plan – Research Plan Examples Discussion
Session 14: Monday, March 2
16.1 Historical Case: 1997 – 1999 Asian Economic Crisis: Korea
Reading:
• “Samsung pleads quilty in US for price fixing”
Session 15: Wednesday, March 4
15.1 Historical Case: Lone Star Capital Case
Readings:
• Na Jeong-ju, “Auditors Call Lone Star Unqualified as KEB Buyer,” Korea Times
Online, June 19, 2006.
http://times.hankooki.com/lpage/200606/kt2006061917153410220.htm
• “Backlash Seen from Lone Star Uproar” Joong Ang Ilbo report
• “Lone Star gets approval to take over KEB”
• “Profit Soars at KEB”
• “Probe Stalls bid to Sell KEB”
Lone Star Fund corporate description
SPRING BREAK No classes March 9 & 11
19.1 Exercise
North Korean Nuclear Issue Influence on South Korean
Sovereign Rating Question Review and Discussion
19.2 Feedback
Final Project Proposal Team Activity – Risk Exposure
Description, Measurement, and Quantification & Risk
Control and Financing Plan
Final Project Proposal Team Activity Discussion – Risk Descriptions & Risk
Control Plans

Tel.: (215) 898-0453
17.1 Final construction of Delphi Survey
• Research Resource: Where to find country risk information on the Internet:

“Countryrisk.com”
• Bank of Korea
18.1 Security Risk

o Security Risks: Identification, Contingency Planning and Management
o Types of Security Risks & Methods of Identifying Them
o Security Risk Management Tools
o Site Security: Personnel, Plant & Assets
o Personnel Security: Travel, Crime, Kidnap & Ransom]
Readings:
o Newsome, Bruce, “Expatriate Games” Studies in Conflict and Terrorism, 29: 75 – 89,
2006
o Barth, Steve. “Risky Business Part 1: The Professionals,” World Trade Magazine,
http://www.global-insight.com/wt9807a.htm
o Barth, Steve. “Risky Business Part 2: Spy vs. Spy,” World Trade Magazine,
o Barth, Steve. „Risky Buisiness Part 3: An Ounce of Prevention“ World Trade
Magazine
o Barth, Steve. “Risky Business Part 4: In Dangerous Places,” World Trade Magazine,
o “When Things Go Bad Fast,” Risk Management, (December 1998), pp. 20-24 [2 pp.]
o “III Says Kidnap, Ransom Risks Higher Than Ever,” The Insurance Journal, Jan. 23,
2001, http://www.insurancejournal.com
o Waidelich, Eric. “Controlling the Strike Zone,” Risk Management, (February 1998),
pp. 34-38 [3 pp.]
o http://www.krollworldwide.com/services/security/ (Review all Kroll security services
offerings)
o http://www.pinkertonagency.com/
http://www.pinkertonagency.com/global/global.html
http://www.pinkertonagency.com/global/services.html
http://www.pinkertonagency.com/crisis/crisis.html
http://www.ci-pinkerton.com/news/globalPS.html
o http://www.guardsmark.com/
For an example of a company specializing in catastrophic risks and an example of a
probabilistic model for forecasting acts of terrorism, see:
o http://www.air-worldwide.com/_public/html/about_air.asp
Tel.: (215) 898-0453
OPERATIONAL SECURITY IN INDONESIA SIMULATION
Session 21: Wednesday, April 1
Review
21.2. Regulatory Risk
• Regulatory Risk and Negative Government Actions

• Regulatory Risk Research Resources
Review the following web sites, which are excellent research resources for identification and
forecasting regulatory risk:
• Davidson Data Center Network. See: http://ddcn.prowebis.com/browse_subject2.asp

See for example the following located by using the search function on the website:
http://ddcn.prowebis.com/study_detail.asp?studyid=410
and
http://ddcn.prowebis.com/study_detail.asp?studyid=412
Visit these two websites and read the abstracts to see the type or relevant information
you can find there pertaining to political risk.
The Competitiveness, Technology and Firm Linkages in Manufacturing Sectors

dataset was created from a firm-level survey conducted by the World Bank in 2001.
The survey covers 1,500 Chinese firms, across ten sectors, which are evenly
distributed across five large cities: Beijing, Chengdu, Guangzhou, Shanghai and
Tianjing. Data include information on innovations, market environment, international
trade, revenue, costs, and labor force among others. See:
http://ddcn.prowebis.com/browse_featured.asp
The micro panel surveys of Chinese State-Owned Enterprises (SOE) cover the period
of 1980 to 1994. See: http://ddcn.prowebis.com/browse_featured.asp
• Review the World Bank Governance Data Sets at:

http://www.worldbank.org/wbi/governance/data.html
Tel.: (215) 898-0453
• Other World Bank data and information concerning:
o World Business Environment Survey
o Investment Climate
o Doing Business
See: http://info.worldbank.org/governance/wbes/index2.html
• World Bank Foreign Investment Advisory Service Investment Climate Indicators

http://www.fias.net/investment_climate.html
Recommended Readings:
• Isaacson, Walter. Kissinger: A Biography, New York: Simon and Schuster,

1992, Chapter 33 “Kissinger Associates: How the World’s Most Famous Consultant
Struck It Rich,” pp. 730-59 [30 pp.]
Session 22: Monday, April 6 (Sec Risk Symposium)
[Participate in Symposium; volunteer/work; networking session for internships, resume

sharing]
Session 23: Wednesday, April 8 (Sec Risk Symposium)

. Risk Insurance
o Political Risk Insurance
o Trade Credit Insurance
Readings:
o MIGA Teams Up with Korean Export Insurance Corporation: Agreement to
encourage Korean investment into developing countries
o Zinkewicz, Phil. "The World of Risk: As US investment swells in the less-developed
countries, corporate risk managers are running for cover - and opening up new
opportunities for private insurers," International Business, February 1996, pp. 20-24
[3 pp.]
o Bourbeau, Heather. "Political Risk Insurance Becomes All the Rage in Emerging
Markets," The Street.com, www.thestreet.com/int/emerging/822667.html, [3 pp.]
o www.opic.gov
o www.miga.org
o http://www.finnvera.fi/index.cfm?id=1712 (includes premium calculator and
excellent definitions and bullet points summarizing risks covered)
Session 24: Monday, April 13
. Calculating Policy Premiums

Premium Calculation ICX/Case Study Overviews

Tel.: (215) 898-0453
TISA Terrorism Insurance and Securities Act 2001
Readings:
o Gerber, Joseph A. and Richard C. Glazer, “Seeking Responsibility: Recovery for Risk
Managers,” Risk Management, (February 1998), pp. 40-44 [3 pp.]
o Kush, Brent and Jessica Schmitchel, “Tips for Settling a Business Interruption Claim,”
Risk Management (October 1998), pp. 42-45 [4 pp.]
o Cuff, John and Michele Watson, “Insolvency: A Risk Manager’s Mayday Call,” Risk
Management (August 1998), pp. 25-26 [2 pp.]
o Lloyd Dixon et al, “Issues and Options for Government Intervention in the Market for
Terrorism Insurance,” Santa Monica, CA: RAND, OP135, 2004. Freely available
o “Terrorism Insurance Coming Out of the Shadows” Asia Insurance Review, March
2003
. Review
13.2. Reputation Risk & Issue Group Campaigns

o How NGOs Influence the Business Environment
o Civil Liability & Tort Actions
Readings:
o Greenpeace.com, Greenpeace News, June 17, 2004. “Coming clean: Samsung
announces phase out of hazardous chemicals in products.”
o Medford, C. “Yahoo China Sounds Off: Portal company responds to music industry’s
copyright threat through reputation specialists,” www.redherring.com, July 7, 2006.
o Naughton, Philippe, “Yahoo Blamed for Jailing of Chinese Reporter,”
o Times Online, www.timesonline.co.uk, September 7, 2005.
o Overell, Stephen. "Masters of the great game turn to business," The Financial Times,
March 22, 2000 [3 pp.]
o Chittenden, Maurice and Nicholas Rufford. "MI6 'Firm' Spied on Green Groups," The
Sunday Times of London, June 17, 2001 [4 pp.]
o Karon, Tony, “If You Can't Beat 'Em, Pander to 'Em: How McDonald's outlets keep
the locals happy in hotbeds of anti-Americanism,” Business 2.0, December 2002.
http://www.business2.com
o Romero, Simon. “War and Abuse Do Little to Harm U.S. Brands,” The New York
Times, May 9, 2004.
o Kudla, Danielle, “Western Technology Sales and The Status of Human Rights and the
Freedom of Speech in China, University of Pennsylvania Senior Honors Thesis, 2003,
pp. 65-68 [4 pp.] on ATCA and Doe vs. Unocal

Tel.: (215) 898-0453
Make-up session and wrap-up with review.
• Security Risks lecture notes and URL links
Assignments and Deadlines
Final Project Proposal—TBA

North Korean Nuclear Issue Delphi Exercise --TBA
Final Exam – WEDNESDAY, MAY 6, 2009
Final Project –Monday, April 27, 2009

• Final Project Assignment and Instructions
Key in-class written assignments:
• Course and syllabus familiarization

• Political Risk definitions and dimensions of risk
• Delphi Questionnaire construction
• Political Risk Section of an Enterprise Risk Management Plan
Course Policies and Grading
Philosophy and Objectives
The objective of Political Risk Analysis is to teach students to apply social science
theories and concepts to the challenges of addressing international political risks to the
continuity, effectiveness, and profitability of the operations of business, government, and
other organizations. The pedagogical philosophy of the course is decidedly practical and
applied. Our aim will always be to apply the techniques of political risk analysis we study to
real-world problems in the realm of business and government operations.
Instructional Methods
The course will seek to impart knowledge and develop skills by presenting students
with a balanced instructional regime consisting of lectures, discussions, in-class exercises,
individual and group assignments, simulations, and interactions with practicing professionals.
Students and the instructors will also participate in social and recreational activities to
facilitate networking and teamwork.
Tel.: (215) 898-0453
Attendance
Attendance at all class sessions and associated special functions is mandatory and will
be weighed significantly in grading. Many of our learning activities will require extensive
coordination among students, instructors, and our outside partners. Your consistent
attendance is crucial to our ability to achieve our objectives. There will be course related
activities and events outside the regularly scheduled class time.
Conduct
We will maintain the highest standards of professionalism. This includes being fully
prepared for class, timely completion of reading materials and assignments, active
engagement in all class discussions and exercises, and consistent attendance. This is
particularly important with regard to team projects and group activities. Students are
expected to express well-thought out personal opinions based on evidence and where
necessary, sound argumentation in support of subjective weighing and valuation of factors.
You will be carefully monitored and your engagement, participation and team contributions
weigh significantly in determination of grades.
Requirements and Grading
Students will be evaluated on all activities and assignments throughout the term and
all such evaluations will be considered in the determination of course grades. Students will be
evaluated according to their performance in four categories and grades will be a determined
according to the following formula:
1) Student Engagement & In-Class Exercises and Assignments - 30%

Student engagement refers to the quality of contributions to class discussions,
exercises, and collaborate projects; student citizenship, collegiality, and
supportiveness of colleagues; leadership, followership, cooperativeness, attitude and
class preparation. Performance on in-class written exercises, activities, and
assignments is also a critical element of this component of the course grade.
2) Delphi exercise—10%
3) Final Project Proposal & Final Project Individual Grade – 10%
4) Final Project & Final Project Team Grade - 30%
5) Final exam – 20%
Students will receive a letter grade on each assignment in each category. Grades for
all assignments in each category will be averaged and the final grade will be determined by a
weighted sum according to the formula set forth above.
Students may receive both individual and team or group grades on selected assignments.
The semester project will be a 20 – 50 page report that employs one or more of the
risk models or methodologies to the analysis of an international political risk problem.
Tel.: (215) 898-0453
Students will have wide latitude in choosing the methods they employ and the case or cases to
which they apply them. The parameters of the semester project will be specified at mid-
semester. All proposal topics must have prior approval by Dr. Plantan.

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Dr.

International Relations 250

The course also features prominent guest speakers.

NOTE: Sequence of classes, course schedules, and assignments may

Session 1: Wednesday, January 14

1.1 Introduction to Course

• Dr. Plantan Introductions

In-Class Exercise: Team Building [Handout]

Session 2: Wednesday, January 21

2.2 Definitions &Concepts

• Political Risk: Concept & Definition

2.3 Dimensions of Risk

• 11 Dimensions of Political Risk & Examples

Session 3: Monday, January 26

4.2 Value, Risk & Probability I

• Taleb and Pilpel, LSE, “Epistemology and Risk Management”

Session 4: Wednesday, January 28

4.1 Overview of Political Risk Models

4.2 Begin Final Project Proposal Topic Guidance & Discussion

a. Must Specify Organization and Specific Project or Activity

Session 5: Monday, February 2

. Distribute and Discuss Assignment – Political Risk Models

5.2 Political Risk Models , continued

5.3 Sources & Analytical Methods

• Political Risk Case Study Research Resources

Political Risk Case Study Research Resources

Session 6: Wednesday, February 4

6.1 Identifying and Interpreting Political Risk

• Political Risk in the East Asian Context Current Examples and

Session 7: Monday, February 9

Session 8: Wednesday, February 11

8.1. Characteristics of Forecasting Methodologies

Session 9: Monday, Feburary 16

9.2. Delphi Survey Forecasting Method

. Delphi Survey: North Korea exercise and/or terrorism case

North Korean Nuclear and Political Situation Delphi

[These assignments are being revised]:

Session 10: Wednesday, February 18

10.1 Cases of Sovereign Risk Rating

National Income Accounting & Balance of Payments

• International Economics Basic Concepts Reading – Balance of Payments [4 pp.]

1) Moody’s Investors Service Website - www.moodys.com

Moody's Credit Ratings

Other Ratings, Policies and Procedures

Session 11: Monday, February 23

11.2 Enterprise Wide Approach to Risk Management (ERM)

Session 12: Wednesday, February 25

12.1 Enterprise Wide Approach to Risk Management (ERM), Continued

o Integrated Strategic Risk Management Plans

Session 14: Monday, March 2

16.1 Historical Case: 1997 – 1999 Asian Economic Crisis: Korea

Session 15: Wednesday, March 4

15.1 Historical Case: Lone Star Capital Case

SPRING BREAK No classes March 9 & 11

Session 16: Monday, March 16

Session 17: Wednesday, March 18

• Research Resource: Where to find country risk information on the Internet:

Session 18: Monday, March 23

18.1 Security Risk

Session 19: Wednesday, March 25

OPERATIONAL SECURITY IN INDONESIA SIMULATION

Session 20: Monday, March 30

Session 21: Wednesday, April 1