DEM4110: ADVANCED TECHNIQUES OF DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS AND

ESTIMATION

Pre-requisite: Dem 3210 Co-Requisite: None

AIM
The aim of this course is to equip students with more advanced analytical and estimation
techniques using demographic data.

1. COURSE OBJECTIVE
By the end of the course, the students are expected to be able to do the following:
- To effectively handle limited as well as defective data;
- To construct demographic estimates based on limited or defective data
- To construct estimates of population parameters
- To evaluate and adjust population data
- To prepare population projections

2. COURSE OUTLINE

TERM I
(a) Fertility and mortality analysis:
- Some methods of obtaining fertility measures from inadequate and defective data;
- Reproductivity: deriving gross and net reproduction rates by indirect methods;
- Derivation of mortality measures from deficient and incomplete data;
- Constructing life tables from deficient and incomplete data; and
- Uses and applications of model life tables (UN, Coale-Demeny, Brass etc).

(b) Dynamics of population change and population methods:

- Effects of fertility, mortality and migration on population size and composition;
- The concepts of closed, stationary, stable and quasi-stable populations and their
applications;
- Fundamental relationships in a stable population;
- Estimating vital rates through stable population theory; and
- Population models: their needs, importance and limitations, examples of simple
models.
TERM II
(c) Adjustment, interpolation and graduation of demographic data:
- Methods of evaluation and adjustment of demographic data based on stable and quasi-
table models etc;
- Definition of interpolation and extrapolation;
- Importance of interpolation and extrapolation techniques in demography;
- Problems associated with interpolation and extrapolation;
 - Interpolation techniques: Newton's divided difference, Lagrange's and Newton's
backward and central difference formula;
- Definition of graduation;
- Importance of graduation techniques in demography;
- Problems associated with graduation;
- Techniques of graduation: graphic, moving averages, mathematical, etc.

TERM III
(d) Population projections:
- Importance of population projections and estimates in planning and research;
- Basic projection and estimation methods using geometric and exponential techniques;
- Projection of components of population: fertility, mortality, migration;
- Period projections; number of alternatives
- Projection of segments of population: school age population, labour force, etc;
- Reliability and limitations of projections;
- Projections with demographic software: PASEX, SPECTRUM, ASSA.

3. METHOD OF TEACHING
(a) Three hours of lectures per week.
(b) One hour tutorial per week.

4. ASSESSMENT
(a) Continuous assessment: 50% Components:
30% three equally weighted tests
20% assignments
(b) Final examination: 50%

5. REQUIRED READINGS

Newell. C. (1988). Methods and Models in Demography. The Guilford Press. New York

United Nations (1983). Indirect Techniques for Demographic Estimation, Manual X. United
Nations: New York.

United Nations (1967). Methods of Estimation Basic Demographic Measures from

Incomplete Data, Manual IV, United Nations: New York.

6. RECOMMENDED READINGS

Bogue, Donald J. et al, eds, (1993). Readings in Population Research Methodology, Volume
1. Chicago, Illinois: Social Development Center.

Indepth Network. (2004). INDEPTH Model Lifetables for Sub-Saharan Africa. Ashgate
Publishing Limited. Hants, England
Preston. S.H., P. Heuveline and M. Guillot. (2001). Demography: Measuring and Modeling
Population Processes. Blackwell Publishing. Malden

Pollard, A.H., F. Yusuf and G.N. Pollard. (1990). Demographic Techniques. Third Edition.
Pergamon Press. Sydney.
Barclay, G. W. (1958). Techniques of Population Analysis. New York.

Pressat, Roland (1972). Demographic Analysis. Aldine : Atherton, New York.

Siegel, J.S. and David A. Swanson, eds, (2004). The Methods and Materials of Demography.
Second Edition. Elsevier Academic Press, San Diego, California.

Shryock, Henry S. and Jacobs Siegel (1976). The Methods and Materials of Demography,
Academic Press, New York.

Pollard, A.H., Yusuf, F. and Pollard, G.N. (1981). Demographic Analysis. Pergamon Press