MO’ASHER

The Official Sales Price Index

for the Emirate of Dubai
MAY 2020
MO’ASHER
The Official Sales Price Index MO’ASHER
for the Emirate of Dubai DUBAI HOUSE
MAY 2020 PRICE INDEX
The Dubai sales house index increased by 12.1% in May
CONTENTS
2020 compared to the base year 2012, and recorded a
growth of 0.5% compared to April 2020.
The Dubai Land Department recorded a total of 1,440
sales transactions worth AED 2.47 billion with 66.5%
in the off-plan segment and 33.5% in the secondary
segment. This brings the year-to-May total to 13,590
sales transactions worth AED 27.8 billion.
Once we saw the lockdown ease in Dubai, real estate
transactions immediately picked up. In May, we saw
3
MO’ASHER‭ - pent up demand similar to what we see after Ramadan,
DUBAI HOUSE PRICE INDEX‭ summer and winter holidays as sales and rental
enquiries were significantly above the same week last
year across all unit types.
4
Currently, the Dubai real estate market is going through
DUBAI SALES PRICE INDEX‭- MONTHLY a V shaped recovery and when analysing the various
indexes for May 2020, we are seeing the same V shaped
pattern in recovery.
6
The index that held strength throughout the Covid-19
situation was the Dubai Villas/Townhouses Index. The
METHODOLOGY reason was very clear in consumer demand at the
start of the pandemic, people instantly saw the value in
outside, personal space and villa/townhouse demand
rose significantly week on week. This trend is still
moving upward today.
The index prices are higher in April and May compared
to March mainly due to supply. Sellers are waiting for
this period to pass and prices during the lockdown
basically stabilized to the same levels before the
lockdown. Summer will be a very telling time as most
will not travel for holidays and there are many active
buyers in the market due to the relaxed mortgage cap
and the best mortgage products and interest rates we
have seen in 15 years.
Key Findings
• Monthly sales price index reached
1.121 in May 2020 compared to
•
1.115 in April.
In May 2020, the Dubai Land
Department recorded a total of
1,440 sales transactions worth
AED 2.47 billion with 66.5% in the
off-plan segment and 33.5% in the
secondary segment.
• The index that held strength
throughout the Covid-19 situation
was the Dubai Villas/Townhouses
Index.
• The index prices are higher in April
and May compared to March mainly
due to supply and gaining more
negotiation power.
“Currently, the Dubai real estate market
is going through a V shaped recovery
and when analysing the various indexes
for May 2020, we are seeing the same V
shaped pattern in recovery.”
Lynnette Abad
Director, Research and Data
Property Finder Group
“The index that held strength throughout
the Covid-19 situation was the Dubai
Villas/Townhouses Index. “
Latifa Ibrahim Ahmed
Senior Director of Real Estate
Studies & Research Dept
Dubai Land Department
MO’ASHER �3
 INDEX NUMBER INDEX NUMBER INDEX NUMBER

4�
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.2
1.4

0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.2
1.4
1.6
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.2
1.4

11
1

0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.2
1.4

00
11

0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.2
1.4
1.6
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.2
1.4
1.6

0
1
May-11
INDEX NUMBER INDEX NUMBER

000
1

0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.2
1.4
1.6
May-11
Apr-11 May-11 May-11
4/1/11
Jul-11
Jul-11
Jun-11 Jul-11 Jul-11
2012-01
6/1/11
Sep-11
Sep-11
Aug-11 Sep-11 Sep-11
8/1/11
2012-03
Nov-11
Nov-11
Oct-11 Nov-11 Nov-11
10/1/11
2012-05
Jan-12
Jan-12
Dec-11 Jan-12 Jan-12
12/1/11
2012-07
Mar-12
Mar-12
Feb-12 Mar-12 Mar-12
2/1/12
May-12
2012-09
May-12
Apr-12 May-12 May-12
4/1/12
Jul-12
2012-11

MO’ASHER
Jul-12
Jun-12 Jul-12 Jul-12
6/1/12
Sep-12
2013-01
Sep-12
Aug-12 Sep-12 Sep-12
8/1/12
Nov-12
Nov-12
Oct-12 2013-03
Nov-12
10/1/12
Nov-12
Jan-13
Jan-13
Dec-12 Jan-13 2013-05
Jan-13
12/1/12
Mar-13
Mar-13
Feb-13 Mar-13 Mar-13
2/1/13
2013-07
May-13
May-13
Apr-13 May-13 May-13
4/1/13
2013-09
Jul-13
Jul-13
Jun-13 Jul-13 Jul-13
6/1/13
2013-11
Sep-13
Sep-13
Aug-13 Sep-13 Sep-13
8/1/13
2014-01
Nov-13
Nov-13
Oct-13 Nov-13 Nov-13
10/1/13
2014-03
Jan-14
Jan-14
Dec-13 Jan-14 12/1/13
Jan-14
Mar-14
2014-05
Mar-14
Feb-14 Mar-14 2/1/14
Mar-14
May-14
2014-07
May-14
Apr-14 4/1/14
May-14
May-14
Jul-14
Jul-14
Jun-14 2014-09
6/1/14
Jul-14
Jul-14
Sep-14
Sep-14
Aug-14 8/1/14
2014-11
Sep-14
Sep-14
Nov-14 Nov-14
Oct-14 Nov-14 10/1/14
Nov-14
2015-01
Jan-15 Jan-15
Dec-14 Jan-15 12/1/14
Jan-15
2015-03
Mar-15 Mar-15
Feb-15 Mar-15 2/1/15
Mar-15
2015-05
May-15
Apr-15 May-15
4/1/15
May-15 May-15
2015-07
Jul-15
Jul-15
Jun-15 6/1/15
Jul-15
Jul-15
Sep-15
2015-09
Sep-15
Aug-15 8/1/15
Sep-15
Sep-15
Nov-15
Oct-15 2015-11
Nov-15
10/1/15
Nov-15 Nov-15
Jan-16
Dec-15 Jan-16
2016-01
12/1/15
Jan-16 Jan-16

Year - Months
Year - Months
Year - Months
Mar-16
Feb-16 Mar-16
2/1/16
2016-03
Mar-16 Mar-16
May-16
Apr-16 May-16
4/1/16
2016-05
May-16 May-16
Jul-16
Jun-16 Jul-16
6/1/16
Jul-16 Jul-16
2016-07
Sep-16
Aug-16 Sep-16
8/1/16
Sep-16 Sep-16
2016-09
Nov-16
Oct-16 Nov-16
10/1/16
Nov-16 Nov-16
2016-11
Jan-17
Dec-16 Jan-17
12/1/16
Jan-17
Jan-17 2017-01
Mar-17
Feb-17 Mar-17
2/1/17
Mar-17
Mar-17
May-17
Apr-17 2017-03
May-17
4/1/17
May-17 May-17
Jul-17
Jun-17 2017-05
6/1/17
Jul-17
Jul-17 Jul-17
Sep-17
Aug-17 8/1/17
2017-07
Sep-17
Sep-17 Sep-17
Nov-17
Oct-17 10/1/17
Nov-17
2017-09
Nov-17 Nov-17
Jan-18
Dec-17 12/1/17
Jan-18
2017-11
Jan-18 Jan-18
Feb-18
Mar-18 2/1/18
Mar-18
Mar-18 Mar-18
2018-01
Apr-18
May-18 4/1/18
May-18
May-18 May-18
2018-03
Jun-18
Jul-18 6/1/18
Jul-18
Jul-18 Jul-18
2018-05
Aug-18
Sep-18 8/1/18
Sep-18
Sep-18 Sep-18
Oct-18
Nov-18
2018-07
10/1/18
Nov-18
Nov-18
Nov-18
Dec-18
Jan-19 2018-09
12/1/18
Jan-19
Jan-19
Jan-19
Feb-19
Mar-19 2/1/19
2018-11
Mar-19
Mar-19 Mar-19
Apr-19
May-19 4/1/19
2019-01
May-19
May-19
May-19
Jun-19
Jul-19 6/1/19
Jul-19 Jul-19
2019-03
Jul-19
Aug-19
Sep-19 8/1/19
Sep-19 Sep-19
2019-05
Sep-19
DUBAI SALES PRICE INDEX - MONTHLY

Oct-19
Nov-19 10/1/19
Nov-19 Nov-19
Nov-19
2019-07
Dec-19
Jan-20 12/1/19
Jan-20 Jan-20
Jan-20
2019-09
Feb-20
Mar-20 2/1/20
Mar-20

Index base January 2012

Index base January 2012
Index base January 2012

Mar-20 Mar-20
DUBAI OVERALL INDEX

Apr-20
May-20
2019-11
4/1/20
May-20

DUBAI VILLAS/TOWNHOUSES INDEX

DUBAI APARTMENTS INDEX

May-20 May-20
1.189
1.121

1.060
MAY 2020

APRIL 2020
APRIL 2020

INDEX VALUE
INDEX VALUE
INDEX VALUE

an increase of 0.95% month-on-month.

an increase of 0.59% month-on-month.
DUBAI OVERALL MONTHLY INDEX

DUBAI APARTMENTS MONTHLY INDEX

DUBAI SALES PRICE INDEX

beginning of the year and an increase of 0.54% month-on-month.

DUBAI VILLAS/TOWNHOUSES MONTHLY INDEX

2020 to 1.047. The Index number kept in April 2020 when it hit 1.050 and in
The villas/townhouses index for January 2020 was 1.051 and the Index price

May has become stronger with an Index number of 1.060 and an index value of
1,024,429. It fell to 1.167 in February 2020 and further declined in March 2020

was AED 1,635,573. It fell to 1.043 in February 2020 but rose back up in March
2020 to 1.100. However it started increasing again in April 2020 when it

The apartments index for January 2020 was 1.174 and the Index price was AED

AED 1,651,574. This is an increase of 0.86% since the beginning of the year and
AED 1,031,855. This is an increase of 1.28% since the beginning of the year and
to 1.162. However it started increasing again in April 2020 when it hit 1.182 and
1,072,002. It fell to 1.104 in February 2020 and further declined in March

hit 1.115 and in May has become stronger with an Index number of 1.121

in May has become stronger with an Index number of 1.189 and an index value of
and an index value of AED 1,078,322. This is an increase of 0.8% since the
The overall index for January 2020 was 1.112 and the Index price was AED

6 Month Change
3 Month Change
6 Month Change
3 Month Change
6 Month Change

Month-on-Month
3 Month Change

Month-on-Month
Month-on-Month

MO’ASHER
+0.63%

+0.09%
+1.63%
+0.95%
+1.54%

+1.19%
+1.89%
+0.59%
+0.54%

�5
 HEDONIC Hedonic imputation indices use predicted prices, evaluated at fixed
characteristics, based on the hedonic regressions for all time periods.
IMPUTATION In doing so, it is possible to evaluate the period t prices of properties
INDEX sold in period 0. There are multiple imputation techniques, but three
common ones are: Laspeyres, Paasche and Fisher.

LASPEREYES The Laspeyres method imputes period t prices for the properties
belonging to the base period sample S(0), evaluated at base period
characteristics to control for quality changes. It is also known as a
base period weighted index, and it provides a meaningful comparison
over time. It helps answer the following question: what would be the
relative price today of a real estate unit that was typically offered for
sale in the base month?

The hedonic imputation Laspeyres index is an example of a single

imputation index in which the observed prices are left unchanged.
Using the Laspeyre method, assuming that the log-linear hedonic
model holds true for all t periods, the quality-adjusted price in period t
is defined as:

PAASCHE The Paasche method imputes base period prices for the properties
belonging to the period t sample S(t) , evaluated at period t
characteristics. It is also known as a current period weighted index,
and reflects current trends. It helps answer the following question:
what is the price of a typical real estate unit today relative to the price
of the same unit in the base month?

The hedonic imputation Paasche index is an example of a single

imputation index in which the observed prices are left unchanged.
METHODOLOGY House price indices serve as important guides that consumers,
Assuming that the log-linear hedonic model holds true for all t
financial institutions, governments and investors look to in order to
periods, the quality-adjusted price Paasche index is defined as:
understand the market movements of a particular city or country’s
housing market. An index will allow one to show the value of an asset
over time by tracking its performance. An index is created by selecting
a base year in a data set and then indexing that number as 100, which
is the natural base for what all other price points will be measured
against. When an index is updated monthly it will produce an updated
average house price as well as the % changes in price for a given time
period such as the last three months, six months or twelve months.

Mo’asher will be created using a hedonic regression model, which is a FISHER The hedonic double imputation Fisher index is found by taking the
geometric mean of the Laspeyres Price Index and the Paasche Price
model that is based on attributes such as view, property size, number
Index. It is deemed the ideal index as it corrects the positive price
of bedrooms and other important features in a property that have an
bias in the Laspeyres Price Index and the negative price bias in the
impact on its value. These methods utilize information on the relevant
Paasche Price Index.
property characteristics to estimate quality-adjusted price indices
using regression techniques, though it may prove difficult to sufficient
Assuming that the log-linear hedonic model holds true for all t
control for location. One of the challenges of building a property
periods, the Fisher Price Index is defined as:
price index is to isolate the effect of the properties price change over
time. Nevertheless, this is challenging because the quality mix in the
real estate market is diverse. The characteristics of every property
is unique, and it is hard to keep track of individual property features
because they continue to be upgraded or modified without informing
the authorities.
The Dubai House Price Indices are calculated using the hedonic
double imputation Fisher index.

6� MO’ASHER MO’ASHER �7

Disclaimer
At present, we do not provide any accuracy metrics, and although all due care and
statistical rigour is taken with the index generation, we do not claim any forecast
accuracy. Property Finder and the Dubai Land Department reserve the right to adjust
methodologies at any given time, and these changes will be published with appropriate
user notes. Users seeking financial guidance from the DHPI do so at their own risk and
should note that some external macroeconomic features will not be captured in the
model.

The DHPI should not be used for any commercial purposes, including pricing and
investment decision making or performance measurement.

You can download a copy of the index from www.datafinder.ae

RESEARCH

Lynnette Abad Mahmoud Ahmed Farghally

Director Research and Studies Specialist

Research and Data Department of Real-Estate Studies and Research
Property Finder Dubai Land Department
Lynnette@propertyfinder.ae mahmoud.ahmed@rera.gov.ae

MARKETING

Faisal Zaidi Manal Mahmoud Haroun

Head of Marketing Corporate Communication Officer

Research and Data Dubai Land Department
Property Finder manal.haroun@dubailand.gov.ae
faisal@propertyfinder.ae

Dubai Land Department, Deira, Bani Yas Road, P.O.Box: Dubai 1166, Dubai, UAE

Propertyfinder FZ LLC, Dubai Media City, Shatha Tower, 15th Floor, Office #1505, P.O. Box 50954, Dubai, UAE