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Flood enhancement through flood control

Robert E. Criss
Everett L. Shock
Environmental Studies Program, and Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Washington University,
St. Louis, Missouri 63130, USA

ABSTRACT
Flood stages for constant discharge have increased 2–4 m over the past century at
numerous locations in the Mississippi River basin. However, no increases are observed on
rivers such as the Meramec and the upper Missouri, which have been spared extensive
river engineering projects. Flood-stage increases on the middle Mississippi River and lower
Missouri River are mostly attributable to channelization.

INTRODUCTION linear least squares regressions to obtain the time dependence of stage
Record flood magnitudes and increased flood frequencies are com- changes. For example, Figure 1A shows stage as a function of time
monly attributed to profound anomalies and changes in the climate for the Mississippi River at St. Louis, Missouri. The seven regression
(e.g., Wahl et al., 1993; Chagnon, 1996). However, Stevens et al. lines correspond to annual floods in each of several discharge ranges;
(1975) concluded that anthropogenic changes in the Mississippi River each data bin is indicated by a different symbol. The positive increase
have increased flood stages (water elevation) at constant discharge, and in stage among the major floods listed in Table 1 is reflected in annual
Belt (1975) concluded that the record stage set by the 1973 flood was flood events regardless of discharge magnitude. This 140 yr record
‘‘manmade.’’ At 13.2 m, the 1973 river stage was the highest ever shows a regular progression in slopes for the regression results, indi-
recorded at St. Louis (Table 1), yet the 1993 flood crested at 15.1 m. cating that (1) the readily available data are complete, (2) there are no
This high stage is paradoxical because the 1993 peak discharge was major discontinuities in these data as a function of time that might be
essentially identical to that of the 1903 flood, which had a stage of induced by changes in measurement technology, such as the introduc-
only 11.6 m (Table 1). Conclusions reached by Stevens et al. (1975) tion of the Price current meter in 1930, and (3) the stages of all but
and Belt (1975) have been variously criticized (Dyhouse, 1976) or the feeblest of annual flood events have increased over the course of
ignored (e.g., Parrett et al., 1993; Perry, 1993), or the stage increases the twentieth century. There is no indication of an increase in peak
have been attributed to levees. In contrast, Pinter et al. (2000) dem- discharge as a function of time in these data.
onstrated that middle Mississippi River stages actually decreased for This point is confirmed by Figure 1B. The upper curve depicts
low discharges, but increased for flows associated with stages that are discharge and stage data for 1862–1903, a period well before the pro-
above 65% bankfull. Pinter et al. (2000) pointed out that their specific found engineered changes of the rivers in the 1930s and 1940s, and
gage analysis eliminates any effects of climate change. They noted that the lower curve shows the analogous trend for the past 20 yr. Stages
stages increased at levels that are well below those where the levees above 11.6 m were very uncommon before major river management
have influence, and attributed this effect to within-channel structures was undertaken, but now occur about every 5 yr. Comparison of the
such as wing dams that decrease flow velocities and channel convey- curves in Figure 1B shows that the flood of 1993 would have crested
ance for moderate to high flows.
This study examines the behavior of peak annual floods over the
TABLE 1. FLOODS EXCEEDING 11 m AT ST. LOUIS
past 80–140 yr at several sites in the Mississippi River basin. Our
methods and database differ from those employed previously, yet we Date Flow Stage Reference*
similarly conclude that increasing flood stages are primarily attributable cfs (m3/s) ft. (m)
to engineering works. Our analysis quantifies the stage increases for April 1785 – – 42.0 (12.8) WSP 771
the peak annual flows that can be associated with the greatest damage, June 27 1844 1 300 000 (36 810) 41.32 (12.59) WSP 1920
and covers a broad geographic region that facilitates comparison of June 10 1851 950 000† (26 900)† 36.61 (11.16) WSP 771
1855 980 000† (27 750)† 37.1 (11.3) WSP 771
rivers that differ in the type and extent of modification. June 15 1858 980 000† (27 750)† 37.21 (11.34) WSP 771
May 19 1892 926 000 (27 220) 36.0 (11.0) WSP 771, 1311
METHODS June 10 1903 1 019 000 (28 850) 38.0 (11.6) WSP 771, 1311
The data for our analysis come from stage and discharge records April 26 1927 889 000 (25 170) 36.1 (11.0) WSP 771, 1311
May 24 1943 840 000 (23 780) 38.88 (11.85) WSP 1311, 977
for annual flood events collected at several gauging stations maintained April 30 1944 844 000 (23 900) 39.14 (11.93) WSP 1311, 1920
by the U.S. Geological Survey (Wahl et al., 1995). In many cases these July 2 1947 783 000 (22 170) 40.26 (12.27) WSP 1311, 1087
data are accessible over the Internet (see U.S. Geological Survey, July 21 1951 782 000 (22 140) 40.19 (12.25) WSP 1211
April 28 1973 851 000 (24 090) 43.23 (13.18) MO-73-1
2001), but in other cases reference must be made to hundreds of annual April 14 1979 684 000 (19 370) 37.79 (11.52) MO-79-1
reports (Hauck et al., 1997; Jarvis et al., 1936; U.S. Geological Survey, December 7 1982 728 000 (20 610) 39.27 (11.97) MO-82-1
1955). We have chosen, from among many examples, stations with October 9 1986 721 000 (20 410) 39.13 (11.93) MO-86-1
August 1 1993 1 050 000 (29 730) 49.58 (15.11) MO-93-1
long historical records that we think best illustrate the effects of man- April 15 1994 629 000 (17 810) 36.20 (11.03) MO-94-1
agement practices on the behavior of rivers in North America. May 22 1995 796 000 (22 540) 41.89 (12.77) MO-95-1
*WSP 5 U.S. Geological Survey Water Supply Paper; MO 5 U.S. Geological
RESULTS Survey Water Resource Data for Missouri. Data from reference reports can be found
Mississippi River at St. Louis at http://water.usgs.gov/mo/nwis/peak?search_site_no507010000.
†
In the plots that follow we show stage as a function of time for Estimated from Figure 1B. All three floods exceed 28 300 m3/s, according to
Stevens et al. (1975)
peak annual flood events. These data were binned and subjected to

q 2001 Geological Society of America. For permission to copy, contact Copyright Clearance Center at www.copyright.com or (978) 750-8400.
Geology; October 2001; v. 29; no. 10; p. 875–878; 3 figures; 1 table. 875
 Downloaded from geology.gsapubs.org on November 25, 2015
Figure 1. A: Graph of river stage vs. time for annual peak floods at
St. Louis. Different symbols represent different discharge ranges,
from small, ,11 325 m3/s, events (open circles) to major floods with
.25 480 m3/s (large open squares; cf. Table 1). Linear regressions
for all but smallest discharge ranges have positive slopes, indicating
that flood stages have steadily increased. B: Correlations between
discharge and stage, or rating curves, for annual floods before 1904
(top curve, triangles) and after 1980 (bottom curve, squares), illus-
trating profound changes in channel. If 1844 flow occurred today,
river would top St. Louis levee by .1.5 m. All data are from U.S.
Geological Survey.
more than 3 m lower had it occurred during the time period before the
major flood-control efforts had begun. Other examples are readily ap-
parent; e.g., compare the disparate flows and similar stages of the 1892
and 1994 floods in Table 1. Extrapolation of the discharge of the 1844
flood along the curve for recent flood events means that there is a
historical precedent for floods that can exceed the flood wall at St.
Louis by ;2 m.
Upper Mississippi and Lower Missouri Rivers
St. Louis is downstream from the confluence of the upper Mis-
sissippi and Missouri Rivers. Typically, floods on the Missouri carry
more sediment and water than those on the upper Mississippi. Man-
agement practices on these two rivers differ dramatically. There are 29
lock and dam units on the upper Mississippi north of St. Louis, built
primarily to facilitate material transport on barges. The Missouri has
numerous dams, six of which provide enormous impoundments of wa-
876
ter for flood control and water supply in Montana, North Dakota, and
South Dakota. Levees are common along the upper and lower Missouri,
although these are most extensively developed downstream of the large
impoundments. That these different practices may have had different
contributions to stage changes at St. Louis and further downstream on
the lower Mississippi, can be seen by comparing the plots in Figure 2.
At the top is an illustration of stage changes at Clinton, Iowa, 551 km
upstream from St. Louis on the upper Mississippi. The other plots in
Figure 2 are for Missouri River stations at Boonville, Missouri, 316
km upstream from its mouth, and Fort Benton, Montana, 3336 km
upstream.
Although the stages of lower magnitude floods (discharges of
1400–2800 m3/s) at Clinton, Iowa (Fig. 2A), have increased ;2 m in
the past 120 yr, stages of the largest floods have increased by only
0.6–1.2 m over the same period. In contrast, most discharge bins for
floods on the lower Missouri river show increases of at least 1.8 m in
the past 80 yr, and the largest magnitude floods (8500–11 300 m3/s)
have been enhanced by ;3 m (Fig. 2B). These results suggest that
most (;75%) of the increase in major flood stages at St. Louis stems
from the type of management practices used on the lower Missouri
and middle Mississippi Rivers. Comparison of the Boonville data with
the data from Fort Benton (Fig. 2C) indicates that flood stages are most
enhanced where the major levee and channelization projects were un-
dertaken. Given the damping effects of large flood-control dams on the
magnitude and variability of flood events (see Perry, 1993), it appears
that channelization and levee construction, rather than reservoir im-
poundment, are primarily responsible for the trend of steadily increas-
ing flood stages.
Unimpounded Rivers
As it flows along above Fort Benton, the upper Missouri River is
not yet impounded behind major flood control dams, and river man-
agement is minimal. As a result, the regression lines in Figure 2C are
nearly flat. Rivers that lack major engineering projects, although in-
creasingly rare, show no pattern of increased stage at constant dis-
charge. One example is provided by the Meramec River in eastern
Missouri (Fig. 3A), which has been protected from major management
efforts (U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, 1965) by the citizens of Mis-
souri (Jackson, 1984). Comparison of Figures 3A and 2C reveals that
the narrower Meramec channel exhibits similar flood discharges, but
more variable and higher stages than the broader Missouri at Fort Ben-
ton. Nevertheless, the record from the Meramec shows that a river that
lacks flood-control structures shows no historical change of stage at
constant discharge.
Ohio River and Lower Mississippi Rivers
As in the case of the Meramec, similarly flat trends are exhibited
by the Ohio River at Cincinnati, as illustrated in Figure 3B. Although
the Ohio is controlled by a series of navigational locks and dams, these
have not dramatically increased the stages. A different pattern is shown
by recent trends at Vicksburg, Mississippi (Fig. 3C). Since major di-
version, dredging, channelization, and shortening (meander cutoff) pro-
jects in the 1930s (Winkley, 1994), which lowered flood stages by more
than 3 m at Vicksburg, stages at constant discharge have steadily in-
creased and are halfway back to where they were in the 1920s. It
appears that major rivers require many decades to readjust to large
morphological changes induced by human activities.
DISCUSSION
Human engineering rather than natural forces have deepened and
narrowed the major rivers of North America. Loss of islands, wetland
habitat, and flood-storage capacity resulting from major river engi-
neering projects are all well documented (Funk and Robinson, 1974;
GEOLOGY, October 2001
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Figure 2. Graphs of river stage vs. time for annual peak floods on
Mississippi River at (A) Clinton, Iowa, and on Missouri River at (B)
Boonville, Missouri, and (C) Fort Benton, Montana. Positive slopes
for linear regressions for each discharge range at Clinton and Boon-
ville document that flood stages have increased at these sites, while
flat trends at Fort Benton show preservation of hydrologic condi-
tions. All data are from U.S. Geological Survey.
GEOLOGY, October 2001
Figure 3. A: Graph of river stage vs. time for annual peak floods on
Meramec River at Eureka, Missouri; Meramec is one of few remain-
ing free-flowing rivers in the United States, and its hydrologic con-
dition is illustrated by flat trend lines. B: Ohio River at Cincinnati,
Ohio; construction of levees and navigational locks along Ohio Riv-
er seem not to have greatly affected historical hydrologic condition
at this site. C: Mississippi River at Vicksburg, Mississippi; super-
imposed on increasing trends of stage heights are major disconti-
nuities likely related to profound river alignment and meander cutoff
projects in 1930s. Data are from U.S. Geological Survey.
877
 Downloaded from geology.gsapubs.org on November 25, 2015
Patrick, 1998; Winkley, 1994; Chagnon, 1996). Our graphs, together
with many other sets of available data, indicate that flood stages at
constant discharge have increased steadily on the Missouri and upper
Mississippi Rivers since continuous records have been kept. These in-
creases correlate with continuing efforts to manage the rivers and sug-
gest that certain management practices should be reconsidered. Spe-
cifically, the evidence given here indicates that levee construction and
channelization of the lower Missouri River and the middle Mississippi
have greatly magnified flood stages. Furthermore, this effect is increas-
ing with time and shows no signs of stopping. These effects on the
lower Missouri River could be decreased or eliminated if it was al-
lowed to return to the natural braided stream form described by Zeb-
ulon Pike, Lewis and Clark, and many other early explorers. The ben-
efits of these projects have to be weighed against inevitable stage
increases when developing sound policy to reverse our exacerbation of
major North American floods.
A simple explanation for the increase in stages, and why smaller
volumes of water have greater depths, is that the river channel is now
restricted. However, the increase in stage at St. Louis means that 7640
m3/s of peak flood water in 1993 had a higher potential energy than
any water in the larger flood of 1844. A correlation between potential
energy and potential damage seems inescapable. Analysis of average
recurrence intervals based on the major floods listed in Table 1 shows
that floods .23 780 m3/s have occurred 11 times in the past 156 yr at
St. Louis, or on average every 14 yr. Over this same interval there
have been at least three floods of more than .28 310 m3/s, which
means that flows the size of that in 1993 occur, on average, about every
50 yr. The record before 1844 is sparse, but there is consensus that the
flood of 1785 was also .28 310 m3/s, and if we include this flood in
our analysis and extend the period of time to 215 yr, the average re-
currence of this size of flood at St. Louis is 54 yr. Stevens et al. (1975)
estimated that three floods in the 1850s exceeded 28 310 m3/s, sug-
gesting a possible average recurrence of ;30 yr. Our estimates based
on discharge are much shorter than the intervals estimated by several
government agencies using ‘‘log-Pearson Type III’’ statistics (Drew
and DuCharme, 1993; Parrett et al., 1993). As we have shown, changes
in flood stages over time are far more dependent on human activities
than on the amount of flood water in the river.
CONCLUSIONS
The historical record for the past 150 yr shows that flood stages
for constant discharge have increased 2–4 m over the past century at
several locations in the Mississippi River basin. In contrast, the Mer-
amec and the upper Missouri have been spared extensive river engi-
neering projects, and show no increase of stage with time, regardless
of discharge. Our analysis shows that different management practices
have different consequences. The most severe effects are found along
stretches with wing dams and levees (Fig. 1A and 2B), as pointed out
by Belt (1975), Stevens et al. (1975), and Pinter et al. (2000), while
those along stretches with locks and dams are less severe. Because
stages are increasing with time owing to river engineering, average
recurrence intervals for major floods are much shorter than generally
acknowledged.
878
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
This research was supported by the National Science Foundation Hydrol-
ogy Program. We thank Nicholas Pinter and Derek Winstanley for helpful
reviews.
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Manuscript received January 29, 2001
Revised manuscript received May 15, 2001
Manuscript accepted June 4, 2001
Printed in USA
GEOLOGY, October 2001
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Geology

Flood enhancement through flood control

Robert E. Criss and Everett L. Shock

Geology 2001;29;875-878
doi: 10.1130/0091-7613(2001)029<0875:FETFC>2.0.CO;2

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