Novel Corona Virus Pandemic-Impact on Indian Economy,

E-commerce, Education and Employment

Vikram P. Bhalekar*
SSRI’s ASC College, Rahata (Savitribai Phule Pune University, Pune) Maharashtra, India
*Corresponding author- Email- bhalekarvp@gmail.com
Abstract- The novel Corona virus (n-CoV-2) pandemic entered India from Wuhan, China. It
invaded rest of the world including India in the month of March. The lockdown (25 March-03
May 2020) was set in motion by Indian and respective state governments, because of which
the virus transmitted with a slow rate as compared to other countries. On the one hand,
environment has been temporarily healing from these 40 days lockdown, on the other, there is
a massive downfall/wreck/breakdown in the stock market. The Indian Government has taken
numerous initiatives for the “Aam-Janta”, to ease the impact of this Pandemic. The pandemic
has disturbed every sphere of life in the country ranging from agriculture, economy, business
sector, education and so forth as a result of the lockdown. Therefore, the current article
attempts to explore the effect of novel corona virus, its transmission in India, discusses its
impact and also seeks to suggest various ways to overcome this unprecedented situation on
various aspects from economy to employment and ecommerce to education.

Fig.1 Graphical abstract- Impact of COVID-19 on India

Introduction- India, the second largest population in the world, is aware of the tremors that
hit almost every corner of the world. The World Health Organization (WHO) declared the
COVID-19 as a Pandemic1 on 11 March, 2020. The first case of SARS-CoV-2 was found in
India2 (Kerala State) on 29 Jan 2020, the students travelling back from Wuhan, had
symptoms of the virus and then later on till 01st March, 2020 there were only 03 cases. Until

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then, the world was not aware of the destruction the small species is going to create. It started
spreading in the country after 15th of March. Indian government has taken initiatives to curb
the spread in the second stage and they almost succeeded.
On 30th of March, the number of cases were 1251 and 32 were the casualties, till the
date i.e. 18th April 2020, the numbers of cases are low (16365 Cases 521 deaths) Fig. 2 (a, b);
as compared to many developed countries like USA, Spain, UK, Italy, and France. However
China survived the battle with Corona and returned to its normal mode. The total number of
infected cases worldwide reached to 2332 k, whereas 160 k are the causalities3. Out of the
total closed cases in India 83% are recovered and 17 % dead, which is low as compared to
total number of deaths (21%) in the world.

Fig. 2 a) Number of Infected cases, b) number of deaths, c) down fall of NSE of India
due to corona virus pandemic
The corona virus hit India severely, but its impact is comparatively less than the rest
of the world. There are various reasons for this. The world is amused to see, how India, one
of the most densely populated country (around 465 inhabitants per square kilometre), stayed
away from this wave. Some of the reasons to stop the transmission include: the Indians have
high immunity power4-5, the use of BCG vaccination6-7 by the Indian government (no
concrete evidence); also include social distancing, quarantine, nationwide lockdown and
awareness towards the pandemic. One of the most important reasons is the high tolerance.
During 1918-19 flu pandemic8, which was also named as ‘Bombay fever’ around 12 million
people, were dead, in which mostly 20-40 yrs. age group was affected and during that period
the population growth was recorded lowest as 1.2% in the British empire. As given in Table
1, India remained mostly unaffected to some extent by the previous 21st century epidemics
like Severe acute respiratory syndrome SARS-2002-03 (number of cases 3 and zero Causality),
MERS-2012, Ebola with no reported cases; except Swine flu, which had 33,783 cases and
2024 deaths9.

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 Table 1. Viruses in 21st century and its origin and symptoms

Virus Origin Year Number Number Symptoms

of cases of deaths

SARS10 China 2002 8,096 774 Fever, chills, muscle aches, headache
and occasionally diarrhoea. Fever of
100.5 F (380C) or higher, Dry cough,
Shortness of breath
MERS11 Saudi Arabia 2012 837 291 Symptoms include fever, cough and
shortness of breath. Also nausea,
vomiting and diarrhoea
Ebola12 West Africa 2014-16 28,652 11,325 Fever, fatigue, muscle pain, headache,
sore throat, vomiting, diarrhoea, rash,
impaired kidney and liver function, and
internal and external bleeding.
Swine Mexico 2009 6,724,149 19,654 Fever, cough/dry cough, headache,
flu India- India- muscle or joint pain, sore throat, chills,
H1N19,13- 33,783 2,024 fatigue, and runny nose. Diarrhoea,
14
vomiting, and neurological problems
Avian flu Asia, Africa, 2003- 861 455 Symptoms begin within two to eight
H5N115 Pacific, 2014 days and can seem like the common flu.
Europe, Cough, fever, sore throat, muscle aches,
Middle East headache and shortness of breath may
occur.
Marburg Uige 2004 252 227 Fever, chills, headache, and myalgia.
virus16 Province, Around the fifth day after the onset of
Angola symptoms, Nausea, vomiting, chest
Uganda 2007-08, 18 7 pain, a sore throat, abdominal pain, and
2012, diarrhoea may then appear
2014
Nipah17 India 2018 19 17 Fever, headache, drowsiness followed
by disorientation and mental confusion
inflammation of the brain
COVID- China 2019 23,30,764 1,60,364 Lower respiratory tract- pneumonia in
194 which fever was recorded above 38oC,
India- India-521 other symptoms were malaise, dry
15723 cough, shortness of breath and
respiratory distress, while some had a
diarrhoea and in most of the cases
commonly leucopenia and lymphopenia

In India, growth rate of corona virus (COVID-19) i.e. number of infected cases is
small as compared to its 133 Million populations, so the stress on the health care system is

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not hard. This leads to the soft functioning of medical system. According to the WHO report,
India is ranked 112th in health ranking18, the total number of the health workers are also lower
than the minimum requisite (22.8/ 10 k population) among 191 countries. This clearly
indicates that India lag behind.

The rate of privatized medical practitioner19 (80% doctors, 70% nurses and midwives)
working in India, is more to the government sector. Due to this, it’s necessary for the Indian
government to act passionately on the COVID-19 pandemic, otherwise as the curve increases
steeply; the health care system will fall suddenly, which would bring India to the top in
number of cases and fatalities.

Fig. 3 The stages of COVID-19, as it spreads in India (18 April, 2020)

The number of stages (I-V) and its growth rate is as shown in Fig.3, till 15 March
India has not entered in the stage III, the number of cases were increasing, the curve becomes
steeper but still it is managed to be stage II. In stage III- community transmission increases
whereas in stage-IV the transmission becomes epidemic and stage V represents the decreases
in number of cases after its peak is reached. The India will probably reach to its peak in the
month of May and this transmission can possibly turned off its feathers in June. It certainly
take times, to recover but if people ignore the social distancing and if the pandemic spreads
further in June, no expert can predict the economic growth, how much human lives it will
take, how the unemployment will shoots and how the ecology will change, then this will
certainly extent to month of August. The qualification, training and awareness of the diseases
are also the problem for health workers in India. Moreover, health care facilities are
unavailable for health workers and police department who are in direct contact with the
infected persons and it led to the infections and death in some cases as well.

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 The Ministry of Health and family welfare and Indian Council of Medical Research
(ICMR) made the people aware of the pandemic, its symptoms and needed precautions by
several means. However, this cannot be the only track that led to the decay of number of
cases. One of the major reason behind the low number of cases in India is less number of test
are being conducted. Till date 372123, Samples were tested i.e. 270 COVID-19 tests per one
million people and 15723 were tested positive from them. Whereas in USA, Italy, France,
Spain, Germany, UK the number of tests were 11245, 21598, 7103, 19896, 20629, 6783 per
one million population4, respectively.

If government wants to test each individual in India with a rate 1, 00,000 per day it
takes around 37 years to test all of them. It’s better to focus on people who have tested
positive or the ones having symptoms of the virus, can get tested, stay at home, must follow
the rules for humanity, asymptomatic should remain quarantined for at least 20 days.
However, population again creates the blunder and disturb the ecosystem completely.

As it was noticed by the Indian Government, that the disease is spreading rapidly,
they shut down all the educational institutions after 16 March and from 24 March lockdown
was declared for 21 days including all industries, services (except emergency). The
incubation period of corona virus is 2-14 days, so the numbers of cases were very low in the
initial stages. But as the number of cases increased after 04 April to till date; the govt. had to
initiate the second lock down. The first lockdown proved effective; however, a religious
event took place in Delhi that emerged as a new hotspot. Missionaries from various states of
India attended the religious event (> 9,000) along with almost 960 people from 40 different
foreign countries. As of 6th April, 1,445 confirmed cases were linked to this event in 17
Indian states and union territories. This is not the only mode of transmission, a pizza delivery
boy in Delhi, a preacher returned from Italy, Germany, and those having travel history of
past two months; many people who were quarantined yet fled, people who hid their
symptoms, are also mainly involved in escalating progress of the COVID-19.

In India, an infant of 3 days to the 95 years old person are found positive. The
lockdown initiated by Indian Government is appreciated all over the world, along with its
move to show respect to health workers in the events like Janta-Curfew (22 March-
expressing gratitude for those working round the clock). However, this Lockdown surely
have a huge impact on Indian economy, ecommerce, education and employment.

Economy-The two previous economic shocks20-23 (2016-Demonetization, 2017-Goods and

Service Tax) from which India had not convalesced fully and suddenly this pandemic struck.
After the outbreak of COVID-19 in China, the lockdown was commenced and it resulted into
the collapse of stock market24. It suddenly transmitted to global economy as a pandemic and
across the globe the recession was observed. As in fig.2 c), India’s National stock exchange
also observed downfall and market collapsed from 12000 (15 Feb) to 8000 (4 April), whereas
the BSE falls from its highest 41236 (15 Feb) to 27668 (4 April). Presently the market is
steadily progressing, as on 17th April the NSE is at 9266, while BSE was closed on 3155825.
The economy of India is mainly based on Agriculture26-27, however to some extent it also

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depends on the export of related goods as well as industries, tourism etc. In India, more than
50% industries have impact of shutdowns due to COVID-19 on their operations.

Due to the transportation and unavailability of workers dairy products sales have hit.
There are rumours doing round on social media platforms, that it have also hit the poultry,
fisheries and meat sectors severely. India’s agriculture export is valued about USD 38 billion
in 2018-19; now this may inflate due to shortage all over the world. However, until now,
owing to the lockdown and restrictions on international travels, put the agriculture products to
rest at their places.

The amount of economic losses in India are predicted by28-32 Acuite Rating: USD 4.5
billion per day; Barclay: USD 120 billion for 23 days; whereas the GDP growths as per
Moody’s Investors: 5.3-2.5%; Fitch rating: 2%; India Rating and Research: 3.6%; World
Bank: 1.5-2.8%; whereas IMF gives 1.9%. As per the IMF’s global economic reports, the
growth of Asia will come to zero during the pandemic. The depreciation of tourism industry
(largest job creator) is USD 2.1 billion for March and April, since this is a pandemic and has
reached almost every corner of the world, the tourist won’t prefer to travel, hence these losses
would increase further, and it can almost be triple.

The Government must take necessary steps to curb the downfall. One of the positive
sides in India’s perspective is the decline of the oil prices to its lowest33-34 (below USD 0)
after 1946. The government has to grab this opportunity to give some kind of boost to the
economy. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) should ease the purchasing of loans, as it helps
fostering the economy. One of the important parameters in the pandemic is an access to
foreign investors, as it is essentially required for India’s growth. These investors must be in
governments control, otherwise if they are under the control of countries like China, it will
throw India with its own hand in a greater recession ever imagined.

To ease the trepidation of Pandemic on Economy and especially for Aam-Janta Indian
Government35-36 announced the INR 1.7 trillion packages, the INR 2000 released to bank
accounts of farmers under PM-KISAN scheme; cash and food assistance for mostly migrant
labours is made available, it certainly benefitted the daily wage workers, urban as well as
rural poor citizens; moratorium for agriculture term and crop loan is granted for three months.
Moreover, RBI37, in order to lower the burden on financial organizations such as National
Bank for Agriculture and Rural Development (NABARD), Small Industrial Development
Bank of India (SIDBI), National Housing Bank (NHB), announced INR 50,000 Crore. Along
with this, credit guarantees, liquidity facilities, loan forbearance, expanded unemployment
insurance, enhanced benefits, and tax relief are the initiated policies.

E-commerce- The Indian e-commerce industry is expanding continuously and it is expected

to cross the USA to become the world’s second market till 2034. The maximum (70-75%) e-
commerce businesses are dealing with smart phones and appliances. The e-commerce is
expected to increase by USD 9 billion from USD 33.5 billion in 2019. The companies like
Amazon, Facebook-Reliance are investing in e-commerce businesses. This advancement will
increase employment, revenues (exports, tax collection etc.); but due to the lockdown and as

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per demand-supply ratio, this might just cross the previous year’s high, since Indians prefer
maximum cash on delivery services and they believe that offline stores are more reliable and
better accessible than online market. During the pandemic customers are also not looking for
style or footwear or gazettes; so most of the e-commerce companies restricted their services,
while some have suspended fully for the period of lockdown. The e-commerce industry
directly affecting the micro, medium sized enterprises and entrepreneurs by providing
resources like financing, technology and also has a dropping effect on other industries. The
companies like Amazon focuses on essentials (grocery segment) but these are also affected
due to clearance at the local levels and as per the availability of delivery boys. The
Government has directed e-commerce companies to operate with necessary permissions from
20, April 2020.

It is expected that after the July the demand would increase and everything would be
settled up for the festive season. In order to survive in this critical situation, malls will have to
cut their prices down; otherwise it is difficult for them to survive due to the tsunami of
Corona.

China is dominating the e-commerce in India through its investments around USD 4
billion38, out of 30 unicorns, 18 are rooted in China. India’s cashless economy endorsed by
Paytm; Chinese tech companies and funds, led by giants like Alibaba, Byte Dance and
Tencent which funded 92 Indian start-ups, including Paytm, Paytm mall, Byju’s, Oyo, Ola,
Big basket, Dream 11, Snap deal, Udaan, Zomato, Swiggy etc. All this adds up to 1.5% of the
total official Chinese (including Hong Kong) FDI into India. Along with this, they have
popular apps like TikTok, UC browser, SHAREit through which India’s security, personal
data is at risk. One day through a cyber-attack, like pandemic, China will try to ravage Indian
economy. People Bank of China (PBoC) raised its stake up to 1.01% in HDFC Bank from
0.8%, and as per the recent history, it takes an opportunity all over the world to buy distressed
assets at the cheapest rate. So India on safeguard issue amended its FDI policy to make prior
government approval from countries sharing land borders with India.

Education- In India, the schools, colleges get summer vacation in the month of May, up to
the month of March generally all HSC and SSC boards exams are over. Almost all the classes
were done with teaching and prepared for exams before the pandemic; besides medical,
engineering and post graduate students. The Schools and Colleges were closed from 17th
March; the ministry of education/ higher education in Central and state took this step as the
pandemic out broke in India. The courses which needed teaching due to unfinished syllabuses
were directed to teach it online. Some of the initiatives along with interactive lecture sessions
were suggested, continuing the academic classes include, planning of syllabi, online/offline
notes; online practice tests; quarantine and fun activities to engage the students; daily and
weekly goals; time to socialize, awareness of pandemic through Google forms/quiz, social
media and so on.
Mentor system is well retained in Indian education system, it helps the students at the
personal level, advise them on study and aware them about social issues. As a common
policy throughout India, it has been decided that, students are promoted to higher classes
without exams in first to ninth and eleventh. The graduate and post graduate exams will be

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conducted in 821(beyond four Crore students) universities, as per the directives of University
Grant Commission (UGC).
To develop the excellent online course, it can almost take year, otherwise the students
cannot get the content or either they cannot have an essence to attain the online classes. The
government has already created the e-portals39 like SWAYAM, e-pathshala, NPTEL,
DIKSHA app; Virtual labs, digital library Inflibnet, E-kalpa; many e-books and e- journals
are also available for teacher and student interaction. Many institutions have started online
certificate courses for students.
The government has to define proper strategy for online or offline examination,
delaying the decision may make students anxious. Many rural places are not fully equipped
with the internet facilities, whereas the schools, colleges fully working on digital platforms
are ahead in each sense and students are getting used to the situation. Hence, government has
to decide policy as per the need of time for urban and rural areas such as shortening the
period of examination; shifts in examination are also possible. Maintaining social distancing
during examination is prerequisite; but considering huge strength of the students, the
criterions cannot be fulfilled by all colleges.
Government is looking for suggestions from students, teachers and experts, on how to
conduct the exams and evaluation process. The aim should be conduct the exams and declare
the results on time, so that next academic year does not hamper much and academic activities
resume on the right time. One possible way is, online examination for the first and second
year students, whereas for final year students the regular exam patterns may be used.

Employment-COVID-19 is the greatest emergency for the world in last 75 years especially,
after the World War II. Economic growth and employment are interrelated. The impact of
lockdown will be believed as, declining of demand (internal and external), disturbance in
supply chain- unavailability of work force at initial and distribution point; also in financial
market. Major companies in India have temporarily recessed operations in a number of
manufacturing hubs and plants across the country, all of this would result in declining
production and slashes of employees.
Numerous businesses, small scale industries are cutting salaries and lying off
employees. Now, post lockdown, it takes a few more months for the final production, so a
large number of people would have been unemployed and not earned any penny. For more
than five years, China is world’s largest raw material supplier and worked as a manufacturing
hub, but this pandemic will take this away, as the world believes that, China having known
the consequences of the virus, allowed its spread worldwide. Now, the world has no option
other than becoming self-sufficient in manufacturing, otherwise we will have to rely on
countries like China; which is responsible for halt in production, in almost every country and
ultimately leads to unemployment.
The job creation in service sector is more as compared to manufacturing. Thus the
government has to focus on job creation. World’s manufacturing hub is now shifting to other
places in Asia, and many big firms from Japan, USA are leaving China. As the consequence
of trade war (economic powers) in US- China, many countries establish their business in
other Southeast Asian countries. This will have a powerful negative impact on the demand
for Chinese labour force in the international markets. As India is having good international

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relations worldwide, it also has world’s largest working age population and it is
comparatively advantageous in the IT and services sector, this will surely enhances the trade
in post pandemic period. In the current scenario, it is time for India to increase the efficiency
of its domestic products and labour markets to structurally improve the economy for the long
term. Unemployment is the major issue in India even before the pandemic, now the COVID-
19 is playing an additional role in that. India has to grab this opportunity and work effectively
to create a large number of jobs.
The industrialization, manufacturing and service sector only support the balance sheet
economy, whereas agriculture is mainly responsible for the existence of human beings. India
needs to retain its identity along with newly evolved manufacturing hub and this will in near
future surely brands it as an economic power.
Now the government has to start the schemes like MNREGA, to provide an
employment to the rural people as an impact of lockdown; allocating billions of dollars to
assist its domestic manufacturers. However, post pandemic, gigantic number of workers in
many fields will be pushed into poverty and more severely into starvation. The daily wage
labours are suffering badly during the pandemic as well. One of the ways to blur the effects
of lockdown and after-effects of pandemic on the poor, government has to generate a more
effective package. The workers migrated to big cities for work are unable to earn a living and
now return to their villages.
Government has taken an initiative for the partial reopening (after 20 April) of
industrial zones, as production restarts, the issues like unemployment will heal partially. This
slowly turns the wheels of economy. Companies which survive during the pandemic, have to
retain its skilled workers because once production restarts, this will surely help ramp the
production rate.
The company management or daily wage employer or a contractor have to make
proper plans and work accordingly, the shift hours can be increased from 8 to 12 hrs for 3-4
months; explore new markets for their products; make it cheaper without compromising
quality, so that it can be used or purchased easily by everyone, the government can invest
additional money in the market, so the liquidity enhances and it ultimately be reflected as
creation of new employments. Next 3-4 months will be very critical for daily workers in India
as their number are greater.

Conclusion-Flatness of the COVID-19 curve is good news for India; on the contrary this
extends the duration of pandemic and also specifies the recession in economy. The number of
infectious cases commands the economic figures; higher the rate of transmission high is
down fall of economy. To reinforce on economic ground India needs to take decisions like
high liquidity in the market through investment to maintain the market flow as of Jan/Feb of
this year. To turn the wheels of economy, the government has to restructure the GST for short
term, also subsidize the materials which are related to small entrepreneurs, enterprises and
investors. At this critical juncture, rather than waiving the loans for a short term, it is
necessary to invest energy to develop new technologies and policies for minimum support
price for agriculture. The investment in supportive infrastructure and logistics in agricultural
export will also be needed; moreover it helps to amplify the income of farmers.

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The some of the European and Asian countries retreating the investments in China, as a result
the manufacturing hub is shifted from China to Southeast Asia or most probably India then a
large employment will automatically get created, to deal with this government needs to
develop the policies not only to boost economy but also to boost the youth for the next fifty
years. The government has to uplift new start-ups and e-commerce industry by supporting
small entrepreneurs as well business groups in the country and make it self-sustaining. The
world economic forum has to work globally and then to the respective countries.

Now the government, universities has to focus on establishment of online tools, even each
institution should have its own app/channels, including video lectures, notes, tutorials,
assignments, question bank and related advanced material for their stake holders.

New environmental policies need to be planned and implemented because the pandemic is
more severe where the cities are highly polluted. The number of viruses will hit the world in
near future as an outbreak/ trade-war/ bio war/ to be an economic power, hence to fight with
this frequent pandemics, India has to invest in education and health, which are the causes of
the economic development and not just the outcomes.

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Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3580342

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Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3580342