Article

Party Politics
17(2) 171–188
From the ground up: The ª The Author(s) 2011
Reprints and permission:
challenge of indigenous sagepub.co.uk/journalsPermissions.nav
DOI: 10.1177/1354068810391159

party consolidation in ppq.sagepub.com

Latin America

Roberta Rice
University of Toronto at Scarborough, Toronto, Canada

Abstract
To predict the electoral fate of the new cohort of indigenous-based political parties in
Latin America, and the impacts on their respective party systems, we need to understand
their prospects for consolidation. The central task of this article is to determine whether
indigenous peoples’ parties are developing solid party roots in society or if they are
merely benefiting from a protest vote against the system. The study of political party
consolidation requires an examination of local level successes and failures. Based on a
quantitative analysis of municipal election results in Ecuador (1996–2004) and Bolivia
(1999–2004), the author finds mixed support for indigenous party consolidation. Clearly,
the governing indigenous-based Movement Toward Socialism (MAS) party in Bolivia has
solidified its base of support. Ecuador’s indigenous-based Pachakutik (MUPP) party, how-
ever, has lost its support at the national level, though it continues to make impressive
gains at the local level. As such, it represents a case of incomplete consolidation.

Keywords
Bolivia, Ecuador, ethnic parties, indigenous movements, municipal elections

Corresponding author:
Roberta Rice, University of Toronto at Scarborough, Department of Social Sciences, 1265 Military Trail,
Toronto, ON, Canada M1C 1A4.
Email: rice@utsc.utoronto.ca
172 Party Politics 17(2)

Introduction
Bolivia’s President Evo Morales of the Movement Toward Socialism (MAS) party made
history on 22 January 2006 when he became the country’s first indigenous head of state.
In December 2009, Morales was re-elected to a second term in office in another convin-
cing victory. While the strong showing by the MAS in the presidential race of December
2005 may have come as a surprise to many observers, the party’s impressive perfor-
mance at the municipal level foreshadowed Morales’s national win. The MAS is part
of a new cohort of ethnic parties in Latin America.1 The decision on the part of indigen-
ous peoples to create their own political parties and contest the electoral arena represents
a significant development in Latin America, one that has begun to attract serious scho-
larly attention. An important dimension that has been overlooked by the growing liter-
ature on indigenous movements and democratic political representation is party
consolidation. Much of the emphasis of this body of scholarship has been in determining
party formation and initial electoral success (Collins, 2004; Madrid, 2008; Rice and Van
Cott, 2006; Van Cott, 2005). However, to predict the electoral fate of indigenous-based
parties, and whether they will permanently alter the structure of their respective party
systems, we need to understand their prospects for consolidation. To this end, the present
study addresses the following question: Are indigenous peoples’ parties developing solid
party roots in society or are they merely benefiting from a protest vote against the
system?
The study of party consolidation requires an examination of local level electoral results
and the capacity of newly emerged parties to build a stable grassroots base of support
(Bruhn, 1997). A sub-national level analysis is particularly appropriate for the study of this
topic given that most indigenous-based parties first emerged in municipalities where indi-
genous populations are relatively concentrated. A common strategy of indigenous-based
parties has been to use a successful experience in local level governing as a springboard to
national politics. Yet most studies on indigenous peoples’ parties in Latin America have
focused on national level trends. This study seeks to correct for this analytical bias through
a comparative analysis of the experiences of indigenous peoples’ parties in municipal
elections in Ecuador (1996–2004) and Bolivia (1999–2004). Ecuador and Bolivia, home
to Latin America’s most significant indigenous-based parties to date, are important test
cases for the study of indigenous party consolidation. The success or failure of indigenous
peoples’ parties in these two cases may prove instructive for ethnic parties that have
emerged elsewhere in the region, including Colombia, Nicaragua and Venezuela.
Ecuador’s Movement for Plurinational Unity Pachakutik–New Country (MUPP–NP)
party and Bolivia’s Movement Toward Socialism (MAS) party both have a decade of local
level governing experience and have made successful bids for national power. Based on a
quantitative analysis of indigenous party vote-shares in municipal races in the two
countries, the article argues that indigenous peoples’ parties are, to varying degrees,
consolidating their bases of support. Whereas the MAS has solidified its organizational
presence at all levels of governing, the MUPP–NP continues to struggle for support at the
national level while partially consolidating its presence at the local level.
The study of indigenous party consolidation has broad theoretical and practical rele-
vance. The experiences of newly emerged indigenous peoples’ parties in Ecuador and
Rice 173

Bolivia provide valuable insight into the challenges of political party consolidation in
fluid or inchoate party systems (Mainwaring, 1999; Mainwaring and Scully, 1995). Both
countries’ party systems suffer from high levels of electoral volatility, weak party orga-
nizations with little longevity and low levels of democratic legitimacy. Empirical studies
have found a strong inverse correlation between party system institutionalization and
indigenous population size in the region (Van Cott, 2000). In other words, countries with
large indigenous populations tend to have weakly institutionalized party systems. Scho-
lars have suggested that indigenous-based parties may have an important stabilizing
effect on party systems by including marginalized ethnic groups in formal politics
(Madrid, 2005; Van Cott, 2000). This discussion speaks to the larger debate in the liter-
ature over the impact of the politicization of ethnic differences on democratic stability
(Birnir, 2007; Chandra, 2004; Horowitz, 1985; Rabushka and Shepsle, 1972).
The article begins with a look at the requirements for party consolidation. An over-
view of the cases of indigenous party formation in Ecuador and Bolivia is also provided.
I then analyse trends in voting patterns for indigenous-based parties in mayoral elections
to determine the extent to which such parties are establishing stable party roots in the two
countries under investigation. The ability of indigenous parties to renew mayoral vic-
tories is also assessed. The time frame of the study includes all of the municipal elections
in which the main indigenous parties, the MUPP–NP and the MAS, participated and for
which data are available. The preliminary results of Ecuador’s April 2009 and Bolivia’s
December 2009 general elections are also discussed. The article concludes with sugges-
tions for future research on indigenous party politics in Latin America.

Party consolidation in fluid systems

There is no standard definition of party consolidation. Much of what we do know about
the organizational evolution of new parties can be traced back to the original work of
Michels (1962) and Duverger (1954). Contemporary political party scholars lament the
lacuna of empirically comparative studies on party organization and behaviour,
particularly outside the Western European context (Kitschelt et al., 1999; Levitsky,
2001; Panebianco, 1988). The vast literature on party systems in the post-1978 or ‘third
wave’ democracies is concerned primarily with the aggregate problems of party system
institutionalization, rather than the individual parties themselves. Nevertheless, the con-
cept of party system institutionalization is a useful entry point into our discussion on
party consolidation. According to Huntington (1968: 12), ‘Institutionalization is the pro-
cess by which organizations and procedures acquire value and stability.’ Based on this
premise, Mainwaring and Scully (1995) elucidate four dimensions of party system insti-
tutionalization: stability in the rules of the game; stable party roots in society; legitimacy
of parties; and strong party organizations. With the exception of the first criterion, all of
these dimensions may fruitfully be disaggregated to the level of the party. A political
party can be considered consolidated if it has an identifiable voting base (party roots);
becomes well known, if not universally accepted (legitimacy); and develops into an inde-
pendent structure as opposed to a personalist vehicle (organizational structure).
New parties may face an especially difficult time establishing a stable electoral base
and a loyal rank-and-file membership in weakly institutionalized party systems. In fluid
174 Party Politics 17(2)

systems, personalities more than party platforms tend to win elections (Mainwaring and
Torcal, 2006). Populism and anti-party politicians often dominate the political land-
scape. As Levitsky (2001: 103) notes, ‘[p]arty-building is a slow and difficult process.
Most new parties fail’. The hostile political climate afforded by an inchoate party system
makes the task of building durable linkages to electoral constituencies an added chal-
lenge. This problem is particularly pronounced in Ecuador, a party system that Conaghan
(1995) has characterized as having ‘floating politicians and floating voters’, meaning
that neither party elites nor the electorate display much in the way of party loyalty.
Whereas fluid party systems are generally expected to provide greater space for new par-
ties to emerge (Downs, 1957; Hug, 2001), this same dynamic may also inhibit the con-
solidation of a new partisan option.
To assess the potential for indigenous-based parties in Ecuador and Bolivia to become
entrenched, this article draws upon the framework of analysis put forward by Kathleen
Bruhn (1997) on party emergence and consolidation. According to Bruhn (1997: 13),
‘[f]or a new party to permanently alter the structure of the party system two processes
must take place: detachment of supporters from traditional parties and reattachment of
supporters to the new option’. Often, new parties are able to capture a strategic protest
vote by criticizing the existing system. Their initial electoral success is therefore heavily
dependent upon detached voters. Unless new parties are able to absorb the political par-
ticipation and loyalties of these unattached voters, they typically face difficulties in con-
solidating their political base. As noted above, the conditions which give rise to
indigenous-based parties are not necessarily the same as those that foster their consoli-
dation. Following Bruhn (1997: 27), if success in emergence predicts success in conso-
lidation, indigenous-based parties are more likely to become consolidated in the
municipalities where they performed especially well initially.
The literature on indigenous movements and democratic political representation has
only just begun to explore the performance of indigenous-based parties in municipal
elections and local government. Based on their work on Ecuador, Beck and Mijeski
(2001) concluded that the impact of the indigenous-based Pachakutik (MUPP–NP) party
at the local level has yet to be determined. Recent works by Cameron (2003), Collins
(2004) and Pallares (2002) have developed important case studies of the most successful
example of a Pachakutik-governed municipality – Cotacachi – which has received inter-
national attention for its innovations in participatory governance. Lalander (2009) has
developed a case study of another Pachakutik success story – Otavalo, Ecuador. The
most exhaustive study to date on the subject is Van Cott’s (2008) qualitative, compara-
tive analysis of indigenous governed municipalities in Ecuador and Bolivia. Her study
ultimately concluded that indigenous parties in local office have had only minimal suc-
cess in improving democratic quality. More systematic work is needed, however, on the
variables that affect support for indigenous-based parties at the municipal level as well as
their prospects for consolidation.

The cases
Ecuador’s indigenous movement was once widely regarded as the strongest and most
well organized in Latin America. In contrast to other countries with significant
Rice 175

indigenous populations, such as Bolivia, Ecuador’s indigenous movement managed to

avoid extensive intra-ethnic conflict and unite diverse interests from the coastal, high-
land and Amazonian regions. In 1986, the national-level umbrella organization known
as the Confederation of Indigenous Nationalities of Ecuador (CONAIE) formed to rep-
resent the country’s indigenous peoples. CONAIE took centre stage in Ecuadorian pol-
itics after the June 1990 National Indigenous Uprising in which indigenous groups
throughout much of the country participated in week-long strikes, marches and demon-
strations as an expression of their frustration with the country’s political and economic
system (Zamosc, 1994).
In 1996, the MUPP-NP was formed as the political arm of CONAIE and the nation’s
indigenous and popular movements.2 The core components of the party’s platform are
resistance to neo-liberalism, anti-corruption and the creation of a plurinational state.
In its first electoral outing in May of that year, Pachakutik won an impressive 20.6 per-
cent of the presidential vote in a campaign that was largely conducted door-to-door. The
party also managed to obtain 8 seats in the 82-seat national legislature, making it the
fourth largest bloc (Van Cott, 2007). In the elections that followed the 1998 constitu-
tional process, Pachakutik’s support dipped slightly to 14.75 percent of the presidential
vote, with just 6 seats in the new 120-seat legislature. In its strongest electoral outing thus
far, Pachakutik helped win the presidential race of 2002 in an electoral coalition with
former Colonel Lucio Gutiérrez of the Patriotic Society of 21 January (PSP) party.
Gutiérrez had played a leading role in the civil society coup of 21 January 2000 that saw
junior military officers join forces with the indigenous movement to overthrow President
Jamil Mahuad through massive street protests (Lucas, 2000). However, President
Gutiérrez’s sudden and unexpected embrace of the neo-liberal model shattered the
governing coalition within six months and ultimately undermined the legitimacy and
prestige of the nation’s once powerful indigenous movement (Van Cott, 2009).
In April 2005, Gutiérrez became the third consecutive elected president of Ecuador to
be toppled by popular protests in a massive uprising against the direction of his govern-
ment. In contrast to previous rounds of contention, however, the indigenous movement
played only a minor role in Gutiérrez’s ouster (Becker, 2008; Lucero, 2008). In the 2006
presidential elections, Pachakutik competed on its own and garnered just 2.2 percent of
the vote, highlighting the loss of the party’s national support base. The declining
electoral appeal of the party is attributed in part to its association with the discredited
Gutiérrez administration and its perceived shift to a more radical, ethnicist stance. The
party did not field a candidate for the 2009 presidential elections, the first held under the
new rules of the 2008 Constitution. Instead, the left-leaning administration of current
President Rafael Correa, who was re-elected in a straight majority in 2009, has taken
up most of the political space previously occupied by Pachakutik with its strong
anti-neo-liberal stance. Paradoxically, ethnic mobilization in Ecuador re-invigorated the
left, which discovered that it could attain sufficient electoral support without the backing
of the indigenous movement.
Bolivia’s indigenous movement has also become a key social actor in recent years,
even pioneering Latin America’s first national indigenous-based parties known as the
Kataristas in the late 1970s (Albó 1990). However, the indigenous movement as a whole
remains divided over class and ethnic-based concerns. The divisions within the
176 Party Politics 17(2)

indigenous movement also play out within the electoral arena. In the 2002 presidential
elections, two indigenous-based parties competed for Bolivia’s indigenous vote. The
Indigenous Pachakuti Movement (MIP), a relatively weak political force, appealed
directly to the Aymara peoples of the department of La Paz on the basis of a common
indigenous identity and obtained 6.09 percent of the presidential vote. The Movement
Toward Socialism (MAS), the coca growers’ party of the Quechua-speaking department
of Cochabamba, garnered an impressive 20.9 percent of the vote on a platform that
emphasized both worker and indigenous-based concerns (Van Cott, 2005). In the subse-
quent presidential elections of 2005, the MIP earned just 2.2 percent of the vote, while
the MAS went on to win the first round of the presidential race with 53.7 percent of the
total national vote. In the presidential race of 2009, the MAS consolidated its hold on
state power by earning 64 percent of the total national vote.
The predominantly indigenous coca growers’ movement, the main support base of the
MAS, is Bolivia’s strongest and most well organized civil society group. Coca is the
principal ingredient used in the production of cocaine. Confronted by forced eradication
programmes imposed by the U.S. government, the growers defend coca production as
part of indigenous culture and tradition, a discourse that has garnered the movement
national and international appeal (Yashar, 2005). By the 1990s, the undisputed leader
of the coca growers’ movement was long-time union activist, indigenous leader and cur-
rent President Evo Morales. In light of the decentralizing reforms of 1994 that created a
more favourable set of institutional opportunities, the movement decided to launch its
own political instrument to compete in the 1995 municipal elections – the Assembly for
the Sovereignty of the People (ASP). The ASP won an impressive number of mayoral
races and council seats in the Chapare region of Cochabamba in 1995 and went on to
earn 4 percent of the total national vote in the 1997 presidential elections.
In 1999, Evo Morales and his supporters left the ASP to form a new, and ultimately
more successful, party, the Movement Toward Socialism (MAS), due to intra-party
rivalries. In its first electoral outing in the 1999 municipal elections, the MAS captured
10 mayoral victories, 8 of which were in the department of Cochabamba, the epicentre of
the country’s coca growers’ movement. By the 2002 national elections, the MAS had
broadened its support base, winning 27 seats in the legislature and 8 in the senate (Van
Cott, 2005). Following the 2005 national elections which brought Morales to power, the
MAS held a majority of seats in the legislature, with 72 out of 130 lower-house seats
going to the party. However, the MAS narrowly missed winning a majority in the senate
in 2005, when it secured just 12 out of 27 seats (Gamarra, 2008). The opposition-
controlled senate became the focus of much controversy as opposition parties sought
to block government-sponsored legislation and curtail the growing power of the MAS.
In the 2009 national elections, the MAS managed to win a two-thirds majority in both
the legislature and the senate.

Data and measurement

The central task of the study is to determine the extent to which the new indigenous par-
ties are becoming consolidated. As per our above definition, a party can be considered
consolidated if it develops an independent structure, is accorded legitimacy and has solid
Rice 177

party roots. Although the MAS and Pachakutik are ‘movement parties’ (Kitschelt, 2006),
maintaining close relations with the indigenous and popular organizations from which
they emanated, they have made some investments in organizational party structures. Pro-
fessional party members staff their party headquarters located in La Paz and Quito,
respectively. They hold party congresses to select candidates and set priorities. And
while the MAS is centred around the personalist leadership of Morales, the party cannot
be described as a personalist vehicle. In terms of party legitimacy, both the MAS and
Pachakutik present themselves as authentic representatives of the indigenous population
(Madrid, 2005). Both parties have gained national and even international prominence for
their ethnic character in a region in which indigenous peoples, where they mobilized at
all, have historically done so around class, partisan, religious and revolutionary identities
as opposed to ethnic ones (Yashar, 2005). Ecuador’s Pachakutik party, at one point,
enjoyed co-governing status, while the MAS has converted itself into the governing
party of Bolivia.
The decisive measure of party consolidation, however, is the ability to establish a sta-
ble electoral base over time. To test whether indigenous peoples’ parties are developing
solid party roots, I assembled an original dataset on municipal election results in Ecuador
(1996–2004) and Bolivia (1999–2004). The dependent variable in the study was the per-
centage of the vote garnered by indigenous parties. In the case of Ecuador, the dependent
variable comprised the percentage of the vote garnered by the Pachakutik party.3 In the
case of Bolivia, the dependent variable was the combined vote-share of the MAS and the
MIP parties in the 2004 elections, and the MAS and the Tupaj Katari Revolutionary
Movement of Liberation (MRTKL) and the Democratic National Katarista (KND) par-
ties in the 1999 elections.4 Elsewhere, I have pooled the combined vote-share for indi-
genous peoples’ parties across national legislative elections to test for the determinants
of party performance (Rice and Van Cott, 2006). In this study, I ran separate tests on each
municipal election to identify the pattern of electoral support for indigenous parties. The
indigenous party share of the vote variable ranged from a value of 0 to 86.7 percent in the
case of Ecuador and 0 to 100 percent in the case of Bolivia. Given that party vote-share is
a continuous variable, the estimation technique used was ordinary least squares
regression.
A further test of the strength of a party’s roots in society is its ability to renew its
mayoral victories from one election to the next. Following Mainwaring and Scully
(1995), I conceive of party consolidation as a continuum (more or less consolidated)
as opposed to a dichotomy (consolidated/not consolidated) as originally suggested by
Sartori (1976). As such, parties can be considered more or less consolidated depending
on their rate of municipal re-election. I propose that indigenous parties managing to
renew the majority of their mayoral wins are more consolidated than the parties that fail
to do so.
The main explanatory variable in the regression models was the percentage of the
population within a municipality that is indigenous.5 The percentage indigenous variable
ranged from a value of 0.1 to 92.7 percent in Ecuador, with an average proportional indi-
genous population of 11.68 percent in 2004. In Bolivia, the percentage of the population
within a municipality that is indigenous ranged from a minimum value of 1.5 percent to a
maximum of 100 percent, with an average proportional population of 70.54 percent in
178 Party Politics 17(2)

2004. Ethnic identities are at the core of indigenous peoples’ parties. Horowitz (1985:
291) defines an ethnic party as one which ‘derives its support overwhelmingly from
an identifiable ethnic group . . . and serves the interests of that group’. The test of an
ethnic party is not how an ethnic group’s support is distributed but rather how the party’s
support is distributed. Rice and Van Cott (2006) have found the initial electoral success
of indigenous peoples’ parties to be heavily dependent on indigenous population size.
Therefore, it is expected that indigenous-based parties able to maintain the support of
indigenous voters in subsequent elections are more likely to become consolidated.
The structural variables included in the models are the percentage of the population
that is illiterate and the percentage that is rural. The illiteracy rate variable serves as a
proxy for the degree of poverty within a municipality.6 Much of the programmatic appeal
of indigenous peoples’ parties is based on their struggle against unpopular neo-liberal
economic reforms. As a result, indigenous-based parties have broad appeal to popular
sector actors, both indigenous and non-indigenous alike. It is therefore expected that
higher rates of illiteracy, and by extension poverty, will be associated with a larger
vote-share for indigenous peoples’ parties. Indigenous parties that are able to absorb the
political loyalties of the popular sectors are more likely to become consolidated. The per-
cent rural variable was included in the models to test for whether indigenous-based par-
ties draw support from more rural or urban municipalities.7 Given the positive
correlation between rural population and indigenous peoples, it is expected that
indigenous-based parties will garner more support from rural areas.8 The capacity of
indigenous parties to become consolidated would thus entail being able to maintain the
support of the peasantry from one election to the next.
Given the tendency of ethnic parties to ‘crowd out’ parties organized along class lines
(Horowitz, 1985: 334), I also tested for the effect of the vote-share for parties of the left
on the pattern of indigenous party support. Leftist political parties have traditionally
appealed to the class-based interests of the indigenous peasantry in Latin America (Ben-
goa, 1999; Chiriboga and Rivera, 1989; Van Cott, 2005). It is expected that the conso-
lidation of indigenous-based parties will be inversely related to the performance of leftist
parties, seeing as they are competing for the same political space. It is therefore hypothe-
sized that a lower vote-share for political parties of the left will be associated with a
greater share of the vote for indigenous-based parties.9 Indigenous parties that are able
to permanently occupy this space on the political spectrum are more likely to become
consolidated.
Finally, the main institutional variable that is relevant at the municipal level is a mea-
sure of party system fragmentation in each district. This variable was calculated as the
absolute number of competing parties in a municipal race minus indigenous peoples’
parties. The number of competing parties variable was lagged to overcome the potential
endogeneity problem created by the fact that the higher the vote-share for indigenous-
based parties the lower the number of partisan competitors as the vote-shares of smaller
parties become absorbed.10 In Ecuador, the number of parties variable ranged in value
from a minimum of two to a maximum of five parties in 1996, Pachakutik’s first
electoral outing. In Bolivia, the number of parties variable ranged from a minimum value
of 1 to a maximum of 14 in 1999, the MAS’s first attempt at electoral competition. In
inchoate party systems such as Ecuador’s and Bolivia’s, a larger number of parties
Rice 179

Table 1. OLS regression on indigenous party vote-share in municipal elections in Ecuador

Indigenous party Indigenous party Indigenous party

Variables vote-share (1996) vote-share (2000) vote-share (2004)

Percent indigenous 0.403*** 0.555*** 0.477***

(0.055) (0.054) (0.065)
Percent rural –0.011 0.077* 0.047
(0.029) (0.040) (0.032)
Illiteracy rate –0.024 0.013 –0.117
(0.133) (0.202) (0.178)
Leftist share of vote 0.038 –0.157* –0.007
(0.073) (0.071) (0.065)
Number of parties –2.90** 1.69 –1.06
(1.02) (1.01) (0.570)
Constant 11.2 –3.14 8.07
(3.33) (3.55) (3.60)
R2 0.381 0.415 0.425
N 200 215 219
Two-tailed tests. Entries are unstandardized regression coefficients with robust standard errors printed below
in parentheses.
*p0.05, **p0.01, ***p0.000.

indicates a greater degree of fluidity among voter loyalties as the electorate is more likely
to vote according to personality or clientelism than party (Mainwaring, 1999: 37). This
would make it easier for a new party to establish a foothold. It is therefore expected that a
greater number of competing parties will be associated with the initial electoral support
base of indigenous peoples’ parties. However, the relationship between party system
fragmentation and party consolidation is ambiguous and requires further study.

Empirical results
The evidence offers mixed support for indigenous party consolidation. The results of the
regression analysis for Ecuador are displayed in Table 1. The percentage of the popula-
tion that is indigenous was found to be the only consistent predictor of indigenous party
performance across all three elections. Clearly, Pachakutik has succeeded on the indi-
genous vote. At the same time, a smaller number of competing parties was found to pre-
dict a higher vote-share for Pachakutik in its initial electoral outing. This finding is
counterintuitive. It may indicate that Pachakutik managed to succeed on a protest vote
that drew significant support away from other parties. Party analysts have suggested that
Pachakutik’s initial support was heavily dependent on the individual candidates and
highly volatile (El Churo, 1999: 26). Nevertheless, the varying strengths of the percent-
age indigenous coefficient across the individual elections suggests an increase in support
at the municipal level for the Pachakutik party between the 1996 and the 2004 elections
on the part of indigenous voters. Whereas the average vote-share for Pachakutik in the
1996 municipal election was 5.55 percent, in 2004 it was 10.8 percent. This finding is all
the more significant in light of the decline in the party’s national support base, including
180 Party Politics 17(2)

among indigenous peoples, following its disastrous experience in co-governing after the
2000 presidential election.
In the 2000 municipal election, in which Pachakutik had its best showing thus far at
both the national and sub-national levels, a shift in the general pattern of support for the
party can be detected. As expected, a lower vote-share for political parties of the left was
found to predict a higher vote-share for the Pachakutik party, suggesting that the party
had expanded its base by filling political space on the left. In addition, a greater percent-
age of the rural population was found to be associated with a larger share of the vote for
Pachakutik in the 2000 municipal race, indicating that the party had also begun to
develop an important base of support among peasant groups. The party, however, did not
maintain this pattern of electoral support, an indication that it is experiencing some dif-
ficulty in establishing stable party roots in society.
To fully assess its degree of consolidation, we need to examine the party’s ability to
renew its mayoral victories over time. Table 2 reveals the mayoral victories of the Pacha-
kutik party from 1996 to 2004 by province. In 1996, Pachakutik won a total of 10
mayoral races, two of which were in the Amazonian provinces of Morona Santiago and
Napo, with the remainder in the highland provinces of Azuay, Bolı́var, Cotopaxi,
Chimborazo and Imbabura. Of the 10 Pachakutik-led municipal governments in
the 1996–2000 period, the party was only able to retain control of 5 of them in the
2000 elections, i.e. a re-election rate of 50 percent. At the same time, Pachakutik man-
aged to increase its municipal holdings more than threefold, to a total of 31 municipal
victories. Much of Pachakutik’s new-found electoral success was the result of its
expanded base of support in the Amazonian region as well as its strategy of running
in coalition with political parties of the left and centre-left.11
In the 2004 municipal elections, the party’s re-election rate dropped slightly to
45 percent as it lost 17 of its 31 municipal governments to its competitors, mainly
in the highland provinces. At the same time, the party managed to win a number of
electoral victories in new municipalities. Most impressively, Pachakutik won the
mayoral race in the municipality of Urbina Jado in the coastal province of Guayas
with 39.4 percent of the vote. This was the first instance in which the party managed
to gain a toehold of support among the coastal population. The preliminary results of
the April 2009 elections suggest a similar story. According to Pachakutik’s website,
the party won 25 mayoral races, only two below its 2004 count.12 Many of these
victories, however, came from municipalities that were not previous Pachakutik
strongholds. Most significantly, the party lost control of both Cotacachi and Otavalo
– its municipal showcases.
The empirical results for the case of Bolivia reveal a dramatically different story. The
results of the regression analysis are displayed in Table 3. As expected, larger propor-
tional indigenous populations were found to consistently predict a greater share of the
vote for indigenous peoples’ parties in Bolivia. The strength of the percent indigenous
variable coefficient in the 2004 election as compared to the previous election suggests
a massive increase in support for indigenous parties on the part of indigenous peoples.
In fact, the average indigenous party vote-share in the 1999 election stood at 6.83 per-
cent. By 2004, the average indigenous party vote-share was over 25 percent. Much of
this support was for the MAS, whose average vote-share in 2004 was 21.06 percent.
Rice 181

Table 2. Mayoral wins of indigenous-based parties in Ecuador

Election Province No. of MUPP-NP mayors

1996 Azuay 3
Bolı́var 1
Cotopaxi 1
Chimborazo 2
Imbabura 1
Morona Santiago 1
Napo 1
Total 10
2000 Azuay 5
Bolivar 2
Cañar 2
Cotopaxi 2
Chimborazo 5
Imbabura 3
Loja 1
Morona Santiago 2
Napo 1
Pastaza 1
Pichincha 1
Sucumbı́os 3
Orellana 3
Total 31
Party re-election rate 50%
2004 Azuay 4
Cañar 1
Cotopaxi 1
Chimborazo 2
Guayas 1
Imbabura 2
Morona Santiago 6
Napo 2
Pichincha 1
Tungurahua 3
Zamora Chinchipe 1
Sucumbı́os 2
Orellana 1
Total 27
Party re-election rate 45%
Source: Archives and website of Ecuador’s Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE).

Surprisingly, however, more urban populations were found to be associated with the
electoral performance of indigenous-based parties in Bolivia, at least in the 1999
election. In both the 1999 and 2004 elections, higher rates of illiteracy, and by extension
poverty, were also found to be associated with electoral support for indigenous parties.
This suggests that indigenous parties are not only drawing support from a broad base of
popular sector actors in Bolivia, but they are also maintaining this support over time.
182 Party Politics 17(2)

Table 3. OLS regression on indigenous party vote-share in municipal elections in Bolivia

Indigenous party Indigenous party

Variables vote-share (1999) vote-share (2004)

Percent indigenous 0.066*** 0.289***

(0.011) (0.027)
Percent rural –0.037* –0.008
(0.016) (0.032)
Illiteracy rate 0.185*** 0.478***
(0.045) (0.099)
Leftist share of vote –0.162*** –0.433**
(0.044) (0.125)
Number of parties 1.53*** –0.214
(0.376) (0.731)
Constant –17.1 –0.604
(4.18) (7.92)
R2 0.204 0.311
N 314 327
Two-tailed tests. Entries are unstandardized regression coefficients with robust standard errors printed below
in parentheses.
*p0.05, **p0.001, ***p0.000.

Finally, as expected, in the initial electoral outing of the MAS a greater number of
competing parties, an indication of voter mobility, was found to be associated with the
enhanced electoral performance of indigenous peoples’ parties. Furthermore, a lower
vote-share for leftist parties was found to be associated with a higher vote-share for
indigenous-based parties in both elections. Consequently, the stunning electoral success
of indigenous-based parties in Bolivia in recent years may have been at the expense of
the traditional left. The pattern of local level support for indigenous parties in Bolivia has
shifted only slightly over time, although the base of support for the MAS has greatly
expanded. Given that the MAS has only participated in two municipal elections at the
time of this writing, the picture is likely to change depending on the governing perfor-
mance of the party at the local and national levels.13
Table 4 displays the number of mayoral victories of indigenous-based parties by
department in the 1999 and 2004 elections.14 The local successes of both the MIP and
the MAS are almost entirely contained to the highland departments, with the only excep-
tion being the 11 mayoral victories of the MAS in the lowland department of Santa Cruz
in the most recent election. In 1999, the MAS won eight mayoral races in the department
of Cochabamba, where the party first originated, with just one mayoral victory in La Paz
and one in Oruro. In the 2004 municipal elections, the MAS emerged victorious in 95
mayoral races, expanding its base of support in the departments of Cochabamba, La Paz
and Oruro and extending its presence into the departments of Chuquisaca, Potosi and
Santa Cruz. The nearly tenfold increase in the number of municipal governments con-
trolled by the MAS between the two elections is indicative of widespread support for the
party throughout much of the country. Not surprisingly, the MIP’s local level success has
been limited mainly to the department of La Paz, where the party originated. However,
Rice 183

Table 4. Mayoral wins of indigenous-based parties in Bolivia*

Election Department No. of MAS mayors No. of MIP mayors

1999 Cochabamba 8 –
Oruro 1 –
La Paz 1 –
Total 10 –

2004 Chuquisaca 9 0
Cochabamba 34 1
Oruro 11 0
La Paz 17 6
Potosi 13 3
Santa Cruz 11 0
Total 95 10
Party re-election rate 100% –
Source: Archives and website of Bolivia’s National Electoral Court (CNE) and Van Cott (2008).
*These figures are estimations only, and based on a plurality win of at least 20 percent of the vote. Mayoral
candidates in Bolivia must win more then 50 percent of the vote to be directly elected, otherwise the mayor
is selected by the municipal council.

while the MIP won 10 mayoral races in the department of La Paz, the MAS managed to
obtain 17 mayoral victories in that same department. Perhaps most significant is the 100
percent re-election rate of the MAS’s mayoralties at the local level. The party managed
to renew its control over every single municipality in which it governed in the 1999–
2004 period, suggesting that the party has indeed established stable party roots in society.

Conclusion
Success in party formation does not guarantee success in consolidation. This is espe-
cially true in the case of the weakly institutionalized party systems of Ecuador and Boli-
via, where new parties come and go at breakneck speed. In the context of a hostile
political environment, indigenous peoples have entered formal politics not through
assimilation, but by politicizing ethnic identities (Van Cott, 2000). This study has asked
whether or not the new indigenous parties are simply benefiting from a protest vote
against the system. I have argued that, for the most part, indigenous parties have been
successful in cultivating solid party roots in society. The evidence clearly demonstrates
that the MAS party of Bolivia has consolidated its base of support at both the local and
national levels. In the case of Ecuador’s Pachakutik party, the evidence is mixed. The
party has not been able to maintain a stable electoral base at either the local or national
level, but it has managed consistently to renew just under a majority of its municipal vic-
tories while expanding its support in other districts.
These findings beg the question: Can a party be considered consolidated if it has fairly
solid party roots at the local level yet almost no base of support at the national level? The
answer is: It depends. In a decentralized system in which parties express no overt desire
to compete for national power, party consolidation can be determined purely at the local
184 Party Politics 17(2)

level. In the cases of Ecuador and Bolivia, however, where indigenous parties have
generally sought to use successful municipal governing experiences as a means to con-
test for national power, then their local level results cannot be divorced from their
national ones. This is particularly the case in Ecuador, where parties are required to com-
pete at all levels (Pachano, 2006). As such, Pachakutik represents a case of incomplete
consolidation. While it is certainly important not to romanticize such novel parties, it is
also important not to set the bar too high. As Levitsky (2001) reminds us, the fact that a
new party not only survives but also manages to establish itself as a major political force
is a significant achievement. In the case of indigenous parties in Ecuador and Bolivia,
there are grounds for cautious optimism.
More research is needed on voter and party behaviour in multi-level systems. Future
research should also examine the long-term impacts of indigenous peoples’ parties on
their respective party systems. Electoral contests in un-institutionalized party systems
are critical in determining which social cleavages will become a permanent axis of polit-
ical competition. If party systems in Latin America ‘freeze’ before ethnic-based con-
cerns become entrenched, indigenous demands will continue to be excluded from the
political agenda.

Notes
I thank John Ishiyama, Kenneth M. Roberts and the three anonymous reviewers for their advice
and critical comments, Moisés Arce for statistical assistance and Hussain Hussain for research
help. A Latin American and Iberian Institute (LAII) PhD Fellowship from the University of New
Mexico supported my research.
1. Based on Horowitz’s (1985: 291) definition of an ethnic party, an indigenous-based party is
defined here as one that derives its support overwhelmingly from indigenous peoples and
serves the interests of this ethnic group. Latin American countries with national indigenous
parties include Bolivia, Colombia, Ecuador and Venezuela. Nicaragua is home to a regional
indigenous party.
2. Ecuador is also home to a minor indigenous party – the Amauta Jatari Indigenous Movement
(MIAJ). MIAJ is the political wing of the Ecuadorian Federation of Indigenous Evangelical
Churches (FEINE). In the 2002 general elections it garnered less than 1 percent of the national
vote and lost its legal registration. The party re-registered as Amauta Yuyay for the 2004
municipal elections and subsequently lost its legal standing for poor performance (Van Cott,
2008: 51).
3. Data for the 1996 Ecuadorian municipal election were derived from the archives of Ecuador’s
Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE) in Quito. The electoral data for the 2000 and 2004 munic-
ipal elections were drawn from the TSE’s website (http://www.tse.gov.ec). As of 2008, the
National Electoral Council (CNE) has become the maximum electoral organization in
Ecuador, assuming most of the functions of the TSE.
4. Data for the 1999 and 2004 Bolivian municipal elections were drawn from the archives and
website of the National Electoral Court of Bolivia (http://www.cne.org.bo).
5. Indigenous population size in Latin America is notoriously difficult to estimate accurately
given the fluid and ambiguous nature of ethnic identities in the region (Madrid, 2005) as well
as the technical complexities involved (Layton and Patrinos, 2006). Self-identification is
Rice 185

generally the preferred method, though it tends to underestimate indigenous population size.
However, a sub-national level of analysis reduces measurement error across countries and bet-
ter captures within-country variation than would a cross-national study. In the case of Ecua-
dor, data for the indigenous population variable were drawn from the 2001 national census,
available online at http://www.inec.gov.ec. Indigenous identity was measured in the census
on the basis of self-identification. For Bolivia, data for the indigenous population size variable
were drawn from the 2002 national census, available at http://www.ine.gov.bo. Indigenous
peoples are also counted in the census on the basis of self-identification.
6. For Ecuador, data for this variable were derived from the national censuses of 1990 and 2001.
For Bolivia, illiteracy data were drawn from the 1992 and 2002 censuses.
7. Data for the rural population size variable for Ecuador were based on the national censuses of
1990 and 2001. Data for Bolivia are from the 1992 and 2002 censuses.
8. The rural population and indigenous population variables are positively correlated in the data-
set at the 0.3 level for both Ecuador and Bolivia.
9. Leftist parties were identified using the Latin American political party classifications devel-
oped by Coppedge (1997). Ecuadorian leftist parties included in the calculation of the variable
were the Popular Democratic Movement (MPD) and the Socialist Party-Broad Front (PS-FA).
Bolivian leftist parties included in the calculation were the Movement for a Free Bolivia
(MBL) in the 2004 elections and the MBL and the Socialist Party (PS) in the 1999 elections
(Van Cott, 2005: 64).
10. Due to data constraints at the municipal level, the number of competing parties in the 1996
Ecuadorian election could not be lagged. As a result, 1996 serves as the baseline election
in the case of Ecuador, with data lagged for subsequent elections.
11. In the 2000 elections, 15 of Pachakutik’s 31 mayoral victories were won in coalition with par-
ties of the left and centre-left, principally the Democratic Left (ID), Popular Democratic
Movement (MPD) and the Socialist Party-Broad Front (PS-FA). In 2004, only 5 of Pachaku-
tik’s 27 mayoralties were won in coalition with other parties.
12. Movimiento de Unidad Plurinacional Pachakutik-Nuevo Pais (http://www.pachakutik.org.ec).
13. The next regional and municipal elections in Bolivia are scheduled for 4 April 2010.
14. Definitive data on mayoral wins in Bolivia are impossible to obtain. Mayors are directly
elected only if they obtain more than 50 percent of the vote, otherwise the municipal council
determines the mayor. Based on Van Cott’s (2008: 91) observation that Bolivian mayors fre-
quently win office with less than 20 percent of the vote, I estimated the number of indigenous
party mayoral wins based on a plurality of at least 20 percent. In the 2004 elections, the MAS
won absolute majorities in 21 municipalities and a plurality in 100.

References
Albó, Xavier (1990) ‘De MNRistas a Kataristas a Katari’, in Steve J. Stern (ed.) Resistencia, Rebe-
lión y Conciencia Campesina en los Andes, pp. 357–89. Lima: IEP.
Beck, Scott H. and Kenneth J. Mijeski (2001) ‘Barricades and Ballots: Ecuador’s Indians and the
Pachakutik Political Movement’, Ecuadorian Studies 1: 1–23.
Becker, Marc (2008) ‘Pachakutik and Indigenous Political Party Politics in Ecuador’, in Richard
Stahler-Sholk, Harry E. Vanden and Glen David Kuecker (eds) Latin American Social Move-
ments in the Twenty-First Century, pp. 165–80. Lanham, MD: Rowman & Littlefield.
186 Party Politics 17(2)

Bengoa, José (1999) Historia de un Conflicto: El Estado y Los Mapuches en el Siglo XX. Santiago:
Planeta.
Birnir, Jóhanna Kristı́n (2007) Ethnicity and Electoral Politics. Cambridge: Cambridge University
Press.
Bruhn, Kathleen (1997) Taking on Goliath: The Emergence of a New Left Party and the Struggle
for Democracy in Mexico. University Park, PA: Pennsylvania State University Press.
Cameron, John D. (2003) ‘Municipal Decentralization and Rural Development in Highland Ecua-
dor’, in Liisa L. North and John D. Cameron (eds) Rural Progress, Rural Decay: Neoliberal
Adjustment Policies and Local Initiatives, pp. 164–86. Bloomfield, CT: Kumarian Press.
Chandra, Kanchan (2004) Why Ethnic Parties Succeed: Patronage and Ethnic Head Counts in
India. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Chiriboga, Manuel and Fredy Rivera (1989) ‘Elecciones de Enero 1998 y Participación Indı́gena’,
Ecuador Debate 17: 181–221.
Collins, Jennifer (2004) ‘Linking Movements and Electoral Politics: Ecuador’s Indigenous Move-
ment and the Rise of Pachakutik’, in Jo-Marie Burt and Philip Mauceri (eds) Politics in the
Andes: Identity, Conflict, Reform, pp. 38–57. Pittsburgh, PA: University of Pittsburgh Press.
Conaghan, Catherine M. (1995) ‘Politicians Against Parties: Discord and Disconnection in Ecua-
dor’s Party System’, in Scott P. Mainwaring and Timothy R. Scully (eds) Building Democratic
Institutions, pp. 434–58. Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press.
Coppedge, Michael (1997) ‘A Classification of Latin American Political Parties’, Kellogg Institute
Working Paper No. 244.
Downs, Anthony (1957) An Economic Theory of Democracy. New York: Harper and Brothers.
Duverger, Maurice (1954) Political Parties: Their Organization and Activity in the Modern State.
New York: John Wiley.
El Churo (1999) ‘Primer Congreso Nacional’, El Churo 2.
Gamarra, Eduardo A. (2008) ‘Bolivia: Evo Morales and Democracy’, in Jorge I. Domı́nguez
and Michael Shifter (eds) Constructing Democratic Governance in Latin America, pp. 124–
51. Baltimore, MD: Johns Hopkins University Press.
Horowitz, Donald (1985) Ethnic Groups in Conflict. Berkeley, CA: University of California Press.
Hug, Simon (2001) Altering Party Systems: Strategic Behavior and the Emergence of New Polit-
ical Parties in Western Democracies. Ann Arbor, MI: University of Michigan Press.
Huntington, Samuel (1968) Political Order in Changing Societies. New Haven, CT: Yale Univer-
sity Press.
Kitschelt, Herbert (2006) ‘Movement Parties’, in Richard S. Katz and William Crotty (eds), pp.
278–90. London: Sage.
Kitschelt, Herbert, Zdenka Mansfeldova, Radoslaw Markowski and Gábor Tóka (1999) Post-
Communist Party Systems: Competition, Representation, and Inter-Party Cooperation. New
York: Cambridge University Press.
Lalander, Rickard (2009) ‘Between Interculturalism and Ethnocentrism: Local Government and
Indigenous Movements in Otavalo-Ecuador’. Paper presented at the 45th Conference of the
Society for Latin American Studies, Leeds, 26–27 March.
Layton, Heather Marie and Harry Anthony Patrinos (2006) ‘Estimating the Number of Indigenous
Peoples in Latin America’, in Gillette Hall and Harry Anthony Patrinos (eds) Indigenous Peo-
ples, Poverty and Human Development in Latin America, pp. 25–39. New York: Palgrave
Macmillan.
Rice 187

Levitsky, Steven (2001) ‘Inside the Black Box: Recent Studies of Latin American Party
Organizations’, Studies in Comparative International Development 36: 92–110.
Lucas, Kintto (2000) La Rebelión de los Indios. Quito: Ediciones Abya Yala.
Lucero, José Antonio (2008) Struggles of Voice: The Politics of Indigenous Representation in the
Andes. Pittsburgh, PA: University of Pittsburgh Press.
Madrid, Raúl L. (2005) ‘Indigenous Parties and Democracy in Latin America’, Latin American
Politics and Society 47: 161–79.
Madrid, Raúl L. (2008) ‘The Rise of Ethnopopulism in Latin America’, World Politics 60: 475–508.
Mainwaring, Scott P. (1999) Rethinking Party Systems in the Third Wave of Democratization.
Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press.
Mainwaring, Scott P. and Timothy R. Scully (1995) ‘Introduction: Party Systems in Latin Amer-
ica’, in Scott P. Mainwaring and Timothy R. Scully (eds) Building Democratic Institutions, pp.
1–34. Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press.
Mainwaring, Scott and Mariano Torcal (2006) ‘Party System Institutionalization and Party System
Theory after the Third Wave of Democratization’, in Richard S. Katz and William Crotty (eds)
Handbook of Party Politics, pp. 204–27. London: Sage.
Michels, Robert (1962) Political Parties: A Sociological Study of the Oligarchical Tendencies of
Modern Democracy. New York: Free Press.
Pachano, Simón (2006) ‘Ecuador: The Provincialization of Representation’, in Scott Mainwaring,
Ana Marı́a Bejarano and Eduardo Pizarro Leongómez (eds) The Crisis of Democratic Repre-
sentation in the Andes, pp. 100–31. Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press.
Pallares, Amalia (2002) From Peasant Struggles to Indian Resistance: The Ecuadorian Andes in
the Late Twentieth Century. Norman, OK: University of Oklahoma Press.
Panebianco, Angelo (1988) Political Parties: Organization and Power. Cambridge: Cambridge
University Press.
Rabushka, Alvin and Kenneth Shepsle (1972) Politics in Plural Societies. Columbus, OH: Charles
E. Merrill.
Rice, Roberta and Donna Lee Van Cott (2006) ‘The Emergence and Performance of Indigenous
Peoples’ Parties in South America: A Sub-National Statistical Analysis’, Comparative Political
Studies 39: 709–32.
Sartori, Giovanni (1976) Parties and Party Systems: A Framework for Analysis. London: Cam-
bridge University Press.
Van Cott, Donna Lee (2000) ‘Party System Development and Indigenous Populations in Latin
America: The Bolivian Case’, Party Politics 6: 155–74.
Van Cott, Donna Lee (2005) From Movements to Parties in Latin America: The Evolution of Eth-
nic Politics. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Van Cott, Donna Lee (2007) ‘The Intercultural Construction of Public Authority in Latin Amer-
ica’, in J. Craig Jenkins and Esther E. Gottlieb (eds) Identity Conflicts: Can Violence be Regu-
lated?, pp. 281–96. New Brunswick, NJ: Transaction.
Van Cott, Donna Lee (2008) Radical Democracy in the Andes. Cambridge: Cambridge University
Press.
Van Cott, Donna Lee (2009) ‘Indigenous Movements Lose Momentum’, Current History 108
(715): 83–9.
Yashar, Deborah J. (2005) Contesting Citizenship in Latin America: The Rise of Indigenous Move-
ments and the Postliberal Challenge. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
188 Party Politics 17(2)

Zamosc, Leon (1994) ‘Agrarian Protest and the Indian Movement in the Ecuadorian Highlands’,
Latin American Research Review 29: 37–68.

Author Biography
Roberta Rice is an Assistant Professor in the Department of Social Sciences at the University of
Toronto at Scarborough. Her work has appeared in the Latin American Research Review, Cana-
dian Journal of Latin American and Caribbean Studies and Comparative Political Studies. She
is currently completing a book on indigenous and popular protest in Latin America’s neo-
liberal era with the University of Arizona Press.