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I. Introduction
A. A universal characteristic of living things is that sexually mature individuals
have the ability to produce ≥1 offspring. Thus, natural populations have
the ability to grow.
B. For example, each spring, in temperate oceans and lakes around the globe,
planktonic populations of diatoms and algae (Figure 1) take advantage of
the increasing availability of sunlight and abundance of nutrients.
where:
Nt = Noert, Equation 2
where:
Nt = Noert
= 500 x e(0.013 x 9)
=
dN
= rN , Equation 3
dt
where:
dN = change in number
dt = change in time
r = the per head maximum potential growth rate
N = number of individuals in a population.
a. As the last ice age was ending, tree populations in the Northern
Hemisphere followed the retreating glaciers northward.
b. Ecologists have documented these movements by studying the
sediments of lakes, where the pollen of wind-pollinated tree species
was deposited.
c. By counting the number of pollen grains/cm2 deposited each year,
researchers have been able to reconstruct changes in tree population
densities in the surrounding landscape.
4. Figure 5 shows exponential growth of collared doves in Great Britain.
Figure 6. The relationship between body size and r. Figure from Molles (1999),
page 219.
A. In cases in which young are added to the population only at specific times
of the year, the exponential models may not be the best representation of
population growth.
B. Most wildlife populations restrict reproduction to a particular time of year:
the population grows during the breeding season, and then usually declines
between 1 breeding season and the next because of mortality and
emigration.
C. We can use the population of phlox studied by Leverich and Levin (1979) to
build a model of geometric population growth.
1. Back when we discussed population dynamics, we calculated a
Nt + 1
geometric rate of increase, λ = , for this population = 2.4177.
Nt
2. At the end of that discussion, we asked how long the phlox population
could continue growing at this rate. Let’s address that question again
here.
3. We can compute the growth of a population of organisms whose
generations do not overlap by simply multiplying λ by the size of the
population at the beginning of each generation.
4. The size of a population growing geometrically at any time, t, can be
modeled as:
Nt = No λt, Equation 4
where:
5. We can use this model to project the future size of our hypothetical
phlox population. Notice in Figure 7 that in only 10 years the population
has grown from 996 to just over 1.16 million individuals. Clearly, this
population could not grow at this rate for very long.
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Figure 8. Logistic (sigmoidal) population growth. Figure from Molles (1999), page
213.
dN K -N
= rN , Equation 5
dt K
1. This term was concocted to express in the simplest possible manner the
dN
belief that as N increases decreases.
dt
dN
2. When N = K, the term equals 0, and = 0.
dt
3. When N is close to 0, in other words, when the population is small and is
dN
just starting to fill up the environment, comes very close to equaling
dt
rN; in other words the growth is nearly purely exponential.
a. For example, suppose that r = 1 and K = 50.
dN
b. When N is small, growth is fast. If N = 5, then = 1 x 5 x (50 -
dt
5)/50, or 5 x 0.9 = 4.5.
dN
c. When N is large, growth is slow. If N = 45, then = 1 x 5 x (50 -
dt
45)/50, or 5 x 0.1 = 0.5.
4. The term (K - N)/K thus fits our intuitive idea of the simplest way in
which a population could expand up to the equilibrium level, K. That is,
(K - N)/K is a measure of environmental resistance, but is an inverse
measure; when environmental resistance is low, the numerical value of
(K - N)/K approaches 1, and when environmental resistance is high, the
value of (K - N)/K approaches 0.
5. If N exceeds K, that is, if the population exceeds the capacity of the
environment for it, this term becomes negative and N will approach K
from above.
6. In fact, any perturbation of the population size from K affects the rate of
growth so as to return the population to its equilibrium size.
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K
Nt = .
1 + e a−rt
/
The terms are all the same as for the VP logistic equation, except for a.
Basically a specifies how close the population is to K when you start out.
However, a is difficult to calculate. I will not ask you to use this integral
equation to calculate population size. Just know that it exists.
Figure 11. Logistic growth of the barnacle, Balanus balanoides. Figure from
Molles (1999), page 213.
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