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• China last year recorded its lowest ever birth rate, of


TCWD FINALS REVIEWER
6.77 per 1,000 people.

• Around 18.7% of Shanghai's population is older than


THE GLOBAL DEMOGRAPHY 65, above the national average of 14.9%.

• Many women in Shanghai were put off having


Configuring: Shanghai will allow only 800k more to
children during a stringent COVID lockdown in April
live there. Chinese City will cap its permanent and May last year, which demographers said could
population at 25M. have profoundly damaged their desire to have
children.
By: John Johnson, Newser Staff (December 26, 2017 –
8:03 AM CST)
• Concerned by China's shrinking population, political
advisers to the government have made more than
20 recommendations to boost birth rates, though
• China’s commercial capital, Shanghai, population fall experts said the best they can do was to slow the
in 2022 in the first decline in 5 years, after authorities population's decline.
imposed draconian Covid-19 lockdowns and more
than 250,000 migrant workers departed. • 24.2 million - current Chinese economic hub
population and authorities plan to cap the permanent
• The data, published by Shanghai’s statistics bureau on population at 25 million.
Tuesday (March 28, 2023), showed the densely-
packed hub had 24.76 million people last year, • The idea behind the newly adopted master plan
compared with 24.89 million people in 2021. through 2035 is to curb the maladies common to
major cities such as environmental pollution, gridlock
• Shanghai’s figures came after Beijing posted its first traffic, and a decline in the quality of services such as
population drop since 2003. medical care and education.

• China’s population fell last year for the first time in 6 The term "maladies" refers to
decades, weighed down by rising living costs problems or issues. In this context,
especially in big, sprawling urban hubs, weak the master plan aims to address and
economic growth, and changing attitudes towards mitigate issues that are frequently
raising a family. encountered in large cities.

• Around 60% of people living in Shanghai said they


• The State Council, which refers to all the above
wanted just one child or none. More than 28% of
Shanghai residents polled said they did not plan to as “big city disease,” also will limit the amount of
have an additional child because of the high childcare land made available for development in the
costs. coming years.

• Shanghai's birth rate dropped to 4.4 per 1,000 people • A research fellow at the Shanghai Academy of
from 4.7 a year earlier, while its death rate increased Social Sciences predicts that the poor will bear
to 6.0 per 1,000 people from 5.6 due to a rapidly the brunt of the new population limit the most
ageing population. because the government will begin tearing down
cheap housing now in existence.

• There will then be 50 times as many elderly, but
• Imposing such limits, he warns, is “unpractical only five times as many children; thus, the ratio
and against the social development trend.” of elders to children will have risen by factor of
ten (10).
• China similarly hopes to cap the population of
Beijing at 23 million by 2020. • The length of life, which has already more than
doubled, will have tripled, while births per
• Plans were already in the works to move woman will have dropped from 6 to 2.
government offices out of Beijing to a new city
being built about 50 miles to the south. • 1800 – women spent about 70% of the adult
years bearing and rearing young children, but
that fraction has decreased in many parts of the
world to only about 14%, due to lower fertility
THE DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION: THREE
and longer life.
CENTURIES OF FUNDAMENTAL CHANGE

By: Ronald Lee

• Before the start of the demographic transition,


MORTALITY DECLINES
life was short, births were many, growth was
slow and the population was young.
• The world’s demographic transition started in
northwest Europe, where mortality began a
• During the transition, Z mortality and then
secular decline around 1800.
fertility declined, causing population growth
rates first to accelerate and then slow again,
moving toward low fertility, long life, and an old • The first stage of mortality decline is due to
population. reductions in contagious and infectious diseases
by air or water.
• 1800 – transition began with declining (means
decrease) mortality in Europe that has now • Preventive medicine, small pox vaccine, played
spread to all parts of the world and is projected significantly in the mortality decline in the 18th
to be completed by 2100. century.

• This global demographic transition has brought • Improved personal hygiene also helped as
momentous changes, reshaping the economic income rose.
and demographic life cycles of individuals and
restructuring populations. • GERM THEORY – theory of diseases that became
more widely known and accepted.
• Since 1800, global population size has already
Scientific theory that states that many diseases are caused
increased by a factor of six (6) and by 2100 will
by the presence and actions of specific microorganisms
have risen by a factor of ten (10).
within the body. It was proposed by scientists such as Louis
Pasteur and Robert Koch in the late 19th century.

• Another major factor in the early phases of • If we boldly extend the line forward in time, it
growing life expectancy is improvement in reaches 97.5 years by mid-century and 109 years
nutrition. by 2100.

• Famine mortality was reduced by improvements • Less optimistic projections are based on
in storage and transportation. extrapolation (means estimating, projecting) of
trends in age-specific death rates over the past
• Secular increases in incomes led to improved 50 – 100 years.
nutrition in childhood and throughout life.
• This approach implies more modest gains for the
• Life expectancy is positively associated with high-income nations of the world, with average
height in the industrial country populations. life expectancy approaching 90 years by the end
(FOGEL, 1994; BARKER, 1992) of 21st century (LEE AND CHARTER, 1992;
TULJAPURKAR, LI, AND BOE, 2000)
• In recent decades, the continuing reduction in
mortality is due to reductions in chronic and
degenerative diseases, notably heart disease and
cancer. (RILEY, 2001) FERTILITY TRANSITION

• In the later part of the century, publicly organized


and funded biomedical research has played an
• Between 1890 and 1920, marital fertility began
increasingly important part, and the human
to decline in most European provinces, with a
genome project and stem cell research promise
median decline of about 40% from 1870 to 1930
future gains.
(COALE AND TREADWAY, 1986, pp. 44)

• In India, life expectancy rose from around 24


years in 1920 to 62 years today, a gain of 0.48 • Most economic theories of fertility start with the
years per calendar year over 80 years. idea that couples wish to have a certain number
of surviving children, rather than births per se.
• In China, life expectancy rose from 41 in 1950-
1955 to 70 in 1995-1999, a gain of 0.65 years per • Some of the improvement in child survival is
year over 45 years. itself a response to parental decisions to invest
more in the health and welfare of a smaller
• On the optimistic side, Oeppen and Vaupel number of children (NERLOVE, 1974)
(2002) offer remarkable graph that plots the
highest national female life expectancy attained
for each calendar year from 1840 to 2000. • These issues of parental investment in children
suggest that fertility will also be influenced by
• The points fall close to a straight line, starting to how economic change influences the costs and
45 years in Sweden and ending at 85 years in benefits of childbearing.
Japan, with a slope of 2.4 years per decade.

• Bearing and rearing children is time intensive. • Between 1950 and 2050, the actual and
projected trajectories for the more, less, and
requires a significant amount of time and least developed countries are plotted.
effort
• One is a trajectory for Europe from 1800 to 1950.
The end point of this trajectory in 1950 is quite
• Technological progress and increasing physical close to the start point for the more developed
and human capital make labor more productive, countries.
raising the value of time in all activities, which
makes children increasingly costly relative to • The starting points of these demographic paths
consumption of goods. differ somewhat.

• Since women have had primary responsibility for • India had higher initial fertility and mortality than
childbearing and rearing, variations in Europe, as did the least developed countries
productivity of women have been particularly relative to the less developed countries in 1950,
important. which in turn had far higher mortality and fertility
than the more developed countries in that year.
• Rising incomes have shifted consumption
demand toward non-agricultural goods and • Except for India, the starting points all indicate
services, for which educated labor is a more moderate (For Europe) to rapid (for least and less
important input. developed countries) population growth.

• Overall, these patterns have several effects: • There has been rapid global convergence in
Children become more expensive, their fertility and mortality among nations over the
economic contributions are diminished by school past 50 years, although important differences
time and educated parents have higher value of remain.
time, which raises the opportunity costs of
childrearing. • This convergence of fertility and mortality is in
marked contrast to per capita GDP, which has
• Furthermore, parents with higher incomes tended to diverge between high-income and
choose to devote more resources to each child, low-income countries during this time.
and since this raises the cost of each child, it also
leads to fewer children (BECKER, 1981; WILLIS. • Today, the median individual lives in a country
1974, 1994) with a total fertility rate of 2.3—barely above the
2.1 fertility rate of the US – and a median life
expectancy at birth of 68 years compared to 77
POPULATION GROWTH years for the US (WILSON, 2001)

• The combination of fertility and mortality


determines population growth.

• Whether childbearing is concentrated at younger
ages or at older ages and whether age at
CONSEQUENCES OF THE DEMOGRAPHIC
marriage rises or falls seems to vary from setting
TRANSITION
to setting, and patterns are still changing even in
the populations farthest along in the transition.
• The 3 centuries of demographic transition from
1800 to 2100 will reshape the world’s population • Parents with fewer children can invest more in
in number of ways. each child, reflecting the quality-quantity
tradeoff, which may also be one of the reasons
• The obvious changes are the rise in total parents reduced their fertility (BECKER, 1981;
population from 1 billion in 1800 to 9.5 billion in WILLIS, 1974)
2100 – although this long-term estimate is highly
uncertain due largely to uncertainty about future
fertility.

GLOBAL MIGRATION
• The average length of life increases by a factor of
2 or 3, and the median age of the population Configuring: Distribution of OFWs by Place of Work:
doubled from the low 20s to the low 40s. 2016

• Many more developed countries already have • ASIA (85%)


negative population growth rates, and the UN 1. Saudi Arabia (23.8%)
projects that the population of Europe will 2. Other countries in Asia (21.5%)
decline by 13% between now and 2050. 3. United Arab Emirates (15.9%)
4. Kuwait (6.4%)
• But many have other changes will also be set in 5. Qatar (6.2%)
motion in family structure, health, institutions for 6. Hong Kong (5.6%)
saving and supporting retirement even in 7. Singapore (5.6%)
international flows of people and capital.
• Europe (6.6%)
• At the level of families, the number of children • North and South America (5.6%)
born declines sharply and childbearing becomes • Australia (1.4%)
concentrated into few years of a woman’s life. • Africa (1.4%)
• Other countries (0.03%)
• When this changed is combined with greater
longevity, many more adult years become
available for other activities.
• The joint survivorship of couples is greatly
• Migration
increased, and kin networks become more
- Movement of people from one place to
intergenerationally dense, while horizontally
another with the intentions of settling,
sparser.
permanently or temporarily, at a new
location.

- International migrants change their usual
- The great majority of border crossings do not place of residence from one country to
imply migration: most travelers are tourists another.
or business visitors who have no intention of - Crossing of the frontiers which separates one
staying in the country for good. of the world’s approximately 200 states from
another.
- Means crossing the boundary of a political or
administrative unit for a certain minimum • Many scholars argue that internal and
period (BOYLE ET AL. 1998) international migration are part of the same
process; they should be analyzed together
• Internal Migration (SKELDON, 1997)

- Domestic migration • International migration arises in a world divided


- type of voluntary migration where people up into nation-states, in which remaining in the
move within their own countries. country of birth is still seen as norm and moving
to another country as a deviation.
- Common causes:
1. Economic opportunities, Deviation means doing something that is
2. Desire to live somewhere with a familiar different from what people consider to be
culture normal or acceptable.

3. Seeking better climate

- Movement of people from one area like a • Migration tends to be regarded as problematic.
province, a district, or municipality to It must be controlled, and curbed, for it may
another within one country. bring unpredictable changes.

- Tends to be travel for education and for


economic improvement or because or a • Emigration
natural disaster or civil disturbance.
- Relocation or process of people leaving one
- Urbanization, movement from rural to urban country to reside in another.
areas, also produces a form of internal - People migrate for many reasons including
migration. increasing one’s chance of employment or
improving quality of life.
• International Migration
• Fiscal impact of Emigration
- External migration
- Movement of people across international - the departure of skilled workers may result in
borders for the purpose of settlement. a loss of tax revenue and economic
productivity.

- remittances sent back by emigrants can - Refer to the phenomenon of skilled,
contribute positively to the home country's knowledgeable workers leaving one area,
economy, offsetting some of the fiscal draining that country of its resources.
challenges.

INTERNATIONAL MIGRANTS ARE DIVIDED INTO:


• Effect of Emigration on Job market and wages
1. Temporary labor migrants – migrate for limited
- Emigration can alleviate job market period to work and send remittances to families
competition in the home country, potentially in the country of origin.
reducing unemployment rates. However, the
departure of skilled workers may lead to 2. Highly-skilled and business migrants – people
talent shortages in specific sectors, impacting with qualifications such as managers, executives,
productivity. professionals, technicians, and the like, who
move within internal labor markets of
- Wages may rise in remaining skilled transnational corporations and international
occupations due to increased demand, while organizations.
some low-skilled jobs may face downward
pressure.
Transnational Corp, is an enterprise that involved
production of goods or services, foreign investments,
FINANCIAL REASONS TO EMIGRATE or income and asset management in more than one
country. It sets up factories in developing countries
1. Seek better economic opportunities as land and labor are cheaper there.
2. Avoid poverty and economic hardship
3. Irregular migrants – also known as
3. Send remittances
“undocumented or illegal migrants” who enter
4. Seek better cost of living
the country in search for employment with no
5. Gain access to credit and financial services
necessary documents and permits.
6. Pursue better education (at better costs)
7. Escape from economic discrimination
4. Refugees – unable or unwilling to return to their
country because of a well-founded fear of
persecution on account of race, religion,
• Immigration nationality, and membership in a particular
- act of individuals moving into a new country group social group or political opinion.
to settle there.
- Must abide by the laws of the new country 5. Asylum seekers – move across borders in search
they have arrived in or face legal of protection.
repercussions.
6. Forced migration – not only includes refugees
• BRAIN DRAIN and asylum seekers but also people forced to
- Often associated with emigration, move by environmental catastrophes or

development projects like new factories, roads, • Differences in demographic patterns about
or dams. fertility, mortality, age-structure, and labor-force
growth
7. Family members – also known as family reunion
or family reunification migrants. • According to neo-classical economic theory, the
main cause is individual’s efforts to maximize
8. Return migrants – return to their countries of their income by moving from low-wage to high-
origin after a period in another country. wage economies.

- Reasons: • Migration decisions are made not just by


1. Conclusion of work contract overseas individuals - they often represent family
2. Desire to be nearer to family strategies to maximize income and survival
3. Improvement in the economic climate in chances (HUGO, 1994)
the home country.

THE VOLUME OF CONTEMPORARY MIGRATION


• Return Migration
- A kind of forced migration • The United Nations figures show that the global
- Typically takes the form of assisted return migrant stock (the number of people resident in
that involves involuntary return that the a place outside their country of birth) grew from
immigrant has accepted, or deportation 75 million in 1965 to 120 million in 1990.
which involves and involuntary return the
immigrant does not accept. • The 1990 figure was roughly equal to 2% of the
world’s population.
• Seasonal Migration
- Migration on a recurring basis, following the • The number of migrants grew slightly faster that
annual cycle of weather and temperature world population as a whole, but the annual
variations, from one area or environment to growth rate of 1.9% for the whole period
another. increasing 2.6% from 1985-1990 was not
dramatic.
• Economic Migrants
- Move to benefit from greater economic • International migrants remain a fairly small
opportunities. minority.

CAUSES OF MIGRATION • Internal migration, conversely, is much larger.

• Disparity in levels of income • For instance, the number of internal migrants in


• Employment India in 1981 was some 200 million, more than
• Social well-being double the number of international migrants in
the whole world at that time.

• The significance of migration as a major factor in SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
societal change lies in the fact that it is
concentrated in certain countries and regions.
Configuring: GOALS
• Migration affects certain areas within both the
sending and receiving countries more than
others.

• Migration needs to take place in an orderly way


to safeguard the human rights of migrants.

• Europe and Asia each hosted around 87 and 86


million international migrants, respectively
comprising 61% of the global international
migrant stock.

• Followed by Norh America with 59 million int’l


migrants in 2020 or 21% of the global migrant
stock.

1. End Poverty
• Africa (9%), Latin America and Caribbean (5%),
2. End Hunger
and Oceania (3%)
3. Well-Being
4. Quality Education
• Asia experienced the most remarkable growth
5. Gender Equality
from 2000 to 2020, at 74%.
6. Water and Sanitation
7. Affordable and Sustainable Energy
• Europe experienced the second-largest growth
8. Decent work for all
during this period, with an increase of 30 million
9. Technology to Benefit All
int’l migrants.
10. Reduce Inequality
11. Safe Cities and Communities
• Followed by an increase of 18 million int’l
12. Responsible Consumption by all
migrants in North America and 10 million in
13. Stop Climate Change
Africa.
14. Protect the Ocean
15. Take care of the Earth
16. Live in Peace
17. Mechanisms and Partnerships to reach the
goals

Configuring: Press release: Ahead of SDG Summit in • With only seven years left, the task ahead to
September, countries commit to scaling up action to achieve the SDGs is formidable, but not
deliver on the Sustainable Development Goals impossible.

• “We are halfway to 2030 and yet nowhere near


to achieving the SDGs. The bad news is we’ve lost
• Despite setbacks, change remains possible – UN
7 years. The good news is-we still have 7 years
and victory is within our reach, but countries
• New York, 19 July – The High-Level Political must integrate the SDGs into their national
Forum on Sustainable Development—the development plans, policies, and strategies. A
forerunner to the SDG Summit in September— strong push must be made to accelerate
ended today, under the auspices of the UN progress, and aligning national priorities with the
Economic and Social Council (ECOSOC), with a SDGs is paramount to ensure a coherent and
renewed call for urgent and collective action to comprehensive approach to sustainable
deliver the Sustainable Development Goals development.” - Lachezara Stoeva. (UN
(SDGs) by 2030. Economic and Social Council President)

• The SDGs remain the world’s blueprint for a • According to the SDGs Report 2023: Special
more resilient, peaceful, and inclusive future. Edition, there has been progress in some areas.

• Over 100 countries joined businesses, civil • 800 million people have been connected to
society organizations, youth, and others during electricity between 2015 and 2021.
the eight days of the Forum to share successes,
experiences and lessons learnt on the SDGs. • 146 countries already met or are on track to
meeting the under-5 mortality target and
• The Forum, which focused this year on specific effective HIV treatment cut global AIDS-related
goals related to: deaths by 52% since 2010.

1. sustainable energy, • “As we cross the halfway mark to 2030, one


2. clean water, overriding truth stands out in my
3. infrastructure and innovation, mind: Change is possible. Backsliding is not
4. sustainable cities, inevitable. Poverty, pollution, and gender
5. and partnerships, inequality are not pre-ordained, they are trends
that can be reversed, problems that can be
stressed the critical need for bold and
solved, tragedies that can be averted, lives that
transformative action at the local level.
can be saved. And together, we can deliver.” -
• Task ahead daunting, but still possible António Guterres (UN Secretary-General)

• 12% of SDG targets are on track, according to a • 38 countries and the European Union presented
preliminary assessment of roughly 140 targets their Voluntary National Reviews at the Forum,
for which data is available. demonstrating the bold actions they are taking to
achieve the SDGs.

• At present, 37 out of the 69 world’s poorest
countries are in debt distress or at high risk,
Voluntary National Reviews (VNRs) refer to a process in
hampering their ability to accelerate action on
which countries voluntarily report on their progress in
the SDGs.
implementing the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).
It is presented during the annual High-level Political Forum
on Sustainable Development (HLPF) • More than 108 million people as of December
2022 were forcibly displaced from their homes
and there was a steep rise to conflict related
civilian deaths with over 50% surge in 2022,
Snapshot of countries’ progress:
fueled by the war in Ukraine.
1. Central African Republic
• This year’s Forum sets the stage for the SDG
- mobile phone users increased from 35.6% Summit on 18 to 19 September, where world
(2018) to 56.7% (2022), a leap of 21% in 4 leaders are called on to renew their
years commitments and raise their ambition for the
SDGs.
2. Comoros
• Strong political will, accompanied by bold
- Government continues its initiatives to investments in the SDGs, is essential to reversing
increase renewable energy capacity to 40% setbacks.
by 2030.
• The UN Secretary-General’s SDG
3. European Green Deal Stimulus outlines the need for the international
community to come together to mobilize
- Strives to make Europe the world’s first investments for the SDGs, calling on wealthier
climate-neutral continent by 2050. countries to scale up affordable long-term
financing to help countries in need to the tune of
4. Kingdom of Saudi Arabia $500 billion annually.

- Made significant progress in Jobs with a • “I urge every government to come to the SDG
particular focus on female labor force Summit with clear plans and pledges to
participation, which rose from 19.4% (2015) strengthen action in their countries to 2030, we
to 36% (2022) need ambitious national commitments and
interventions to reduce poverty and inequality
5. Kitts and Nevis by 2027 and 2030.” - said Mr. Guterres

- Tourism and its ancillary sectors have


rebounded sharply, contributing to real GDP
SUSTAINABLE ECONOMIC SYSTEMS
growth of 9% in 2022, after contracting
14.5% in 2020 and 0.9% in 2021. • There was a strong impression that the global
economy became the sphere of extreme
uncertainty and risk during the first decade of the
• The most vulnerable countries are bearing the 21st century.
brunt of the world’s collective failure to
accelerate progress on the SDGs. • There was a dimension of crisis that began in
2007 that was not like another business cycle

setback but a serious breakdown that challenge rapid growth with rising demand, higher inflation
the foundations of modern approaches to the and dropping unemployment, followed by
creation of welfare. depression with reversal phenomena.

• Symptoms of crisis around the globe: • Excessive highs and lows should be avoided.

1. Collapsing Financial Markets • There was a Great Depression that happened in


2. Rising Unemployment 1929, when the economy collapsed in a dramatic
3. Deeper Inequalities way after long years of post-war prosperity and
4. Shrinking Middle Class overproduction.
5. Extreme Indebtedness
6. Inability Of Governments to Force Through • The global crisis in the 1970’s opened the gates
Reforms of new economic ideas.

• Monetarism, which is premised on the idea that


• Moreover, the challenges of climate change and stabilization could be produced control of
the unavailability of resources that were amount of money in circulation.
important in the development of technologies to
keep the economy growing continued to • MILTON FRIEDMAN started to dominate global
surfaced. capitalism.

• ULRICH BECK – a German sociologist, has • Global capitalism fitted well with neo-liberalism,
predicted these things to happen years back, and which expanded with the free market reforms of
has coined the term, “risk society” (BECK, 1986) RONALD REAGAN in the USA and MARGARET
THATCHER in UK.

STABILITY • The 1990’s still experienced world economy


collapses such as the Asian financial crisis in
• Firmness in position, permanence and resistance 1997, the Russian crisis followed by the disaster
to change are the words associated with stability. in Argentina that started in 1999.

• International Monetary Fund (IMF, 2012) – • These crises were mainly attributed to major
defines it as “avoiding large swings in economic political mistakes, but particularly alarming with
activity, high inflation, and excessive volatility in their contagion effects.
exchange rates and financial markets”
• Since 2007, many countries had been trying to
• Refers to indexes that describe the economy in restore stabilization.
short term categories.

• (KNOOP, 2009) expressed that within a few


years, every economy moves through periods of

SUSTAINABILITY
• 1968 – GARRET HARDIN wrote the famous book
• Considers the long-term capacities of a system to
“TRAGEDY OF COMMONS” that analyzed how
exist, not its short-term resistance to change.
public goods got exhausted by actors in a free
market economy (HARDIN, 1968)
• BRUNTLAND REPORT (World Commission on
Environment and Development, 1987) said that
• The Club of Rome published, THE LIMITS TO
“development that meets the needs of the
GROWTH that dealt with the connection
present without compromising the ability of
between economic growth and the scarcity of
future generations to meet their own needs
resources.
deserves the label of sustainability”

• Rising awareness of the sustainability problem in


• Technology became a fantastic escape from the
environmental issues and resources translated
sustainability dilemma.
also into international cooperation.

• The Solow-Swan model (1950) saw the only


• Sustainability perspectives started to be visible
chance for innovations.
not only in the environmental area but also on
the theme of overpopulation.
• A sheer increase of the amount of resources
added to input could lead to diminishing
marginal returns only.

• New ideas in technology and organization made


it possible to overtake the steady state of zero
growth and induce development without
increasing resources.

• PAUL ROMER AND ROBERT LUCAS proposed the


New Growth Theory (1980)

• The endogenous factors like human capital and


education were recognized as crucial for growth
and their application was free from steady state
of classical resources.

• 19th century – the issue of sustainability


considered mainly social conditions in early
industrial capitalism.

• Modern debate on sustainability focused mainly


on environmental questions.

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