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composition and distribution across space – and the process due to lower fertility and longer life.
-
8800
density, ethnicity, education level, health measures, economic contagious and infectious diseases by air or water.
status, religious affiliations and other aspects of the human • Preventive medicine, small pox vaccine, played significantly
population of the planet Earth. in the mortality decline in the eighteenth century.
• Improved personal hygiene also helped as income rose.
Population Trends • The gem theory of diseases became more widely known and
accepted.
• Another major factor in the early phases of growing life
expectancy is improvement in nutrition.
• Famine mortality was reduced by improvements in storage and
transportation
• Secular increases in incomes led to improved nutrition in
childhood and throughout life
• Life expectancy is positively associated with height in the
industrial country populations (Fogel, 1994; Barker, 1992.)
• In recent decades, the continuing reduction in mortality is due
to reductions in chronic and degenerative diseases, notably
heart disease and cancer (Riley, 2001).
- In the later part of the century, publicly organized and
funded biomedical research has played an increasingly
important part, and the human genome project and stem
The Demographic Transition: Three Centuries of cell research promise future gains.
Fundamental Change - In India, life expectancy rose from around 24 years in
• Before the start of the demographic transition: life was 1920 to 62 years today, a gain of .48 years per calendar
short, births were many, growth was slow and the population year over 80 years. In China, life expectancy rose from 41
was young in 1950–1955 to 70 in 1995–1999, a gain of .65 years per
• During the transition: First mortality and then fertility year over 45 years.
declined, causing population growth rates first to accelerate • On the optimistic side, Oeppen and Vaupel (2002) offer a
and then to slow again, moving toward low fertility, long life remarkable graph that plots the highest national female life
and an old population. expectancy attained for each calendar year from 1840 to 2000.
• The points fall close to a straight line, starting at 45 years in
Transition Began Around 1800 Sweden and ending at 85 years in Japan, with a slope of 2.4
• The transition began around 1800 with declining mortality in years per decade. If we boldly extend the line forward in time,
Europe. It has now spread to all parts of the world and is it reaches 97.5 years by mid-century and 109 years by 2100.
projected to be completed by 2100. • Less optimistic projections are based on extrapolation of
• This global demographic transition has brought momentous trends in age-specific death rates over the past 50 or 100 years.
changes, reshaping the economic and demographic life cycles This approach implies more modest gains for the high-income
of individuals and restructuring populations. nations of the world, with average life expectancy approaching
90 years by the end of the twenty- first century (Lee and
Global Population Size Carter, 1992; Tuljapurkar, Li and Boe, 2000).
• Since 1800, global population size has already increased by a
factor of six and by 2100 will have risen by a factor of ten.
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Fertility Transition years compared to 77 years for the United States (Wilson,
- Between 1890 and 1920, marital fertility began to decline in 2001).
most European provinces, with a median decline of about 40
percent from 1870 to 1930 (Coale and Treadway, 1986, p. 44). Some Consequences of the Demographic Transition
- Most economic theories of fertility start with the idea that • The three centuries of demographic transition from 1800 to
couples wish to have a certain number of surviving children, 2100 will reshape the world’s population in a number of ways.
rather than births per se. • The obvious changes are the rise in total population from 1
- Some of the improvement in child survival is itself a response billion in 1800 to perhaps 9.5 billion in 2100—although this
to parental decisions to invest more in the health and welfare long-term estimate is highly uncertain due largely to
of a smaller number of children (Nerlove, 1974). uncertainty about future fertility.
- These issues of parental investment in children suggest that • The average length of life increases by a factor of two or three,
fertility will also be influenced by how economic change and the median age of the population doubled from the low 20s
influences the costs and benefits of childbearing. to the low 40s.
- Bearing and rearing children is time intensive. • Many More Developed Countries already have negative
- Technological progress and increasing physical and human population growth rates, and the United Nations projects that
capital make labor more productive, raising the value of time the population of Europe will decline by 13 percent between
in all activities, which makes children increasingly costly now and 2050.
relative to consumption goods. • But many other changes will also be set in motion in family
- Since women have had primary responsibility for childbearing structure, health, institutions for saving and supporting
and rearing, variations in the productivity of women have been retirement and even in international flows of people and capital.
particularly important. • At the level of families, the number of children born declines
- Rising incomes have shifted consumption demand toward sharply and childbearing becomes concentrated into a few years
nonagricultural goods and services, for which educated labor of a woman’s life. When this change is combined with greater
is a more important input. longevity, many more adult years become available for other
- Overall, these patterns have several effects: children become activities.
more expensive, their economic contributions are diminished
• The joint survivorship of couples is greatly increased, and kin
by school time and educated parents have higher value of time,
networks become more intergenerationally dense, while
which raises the opportunity costs of childrearing.
horizontally sparser.
- Furthermore, parents with higher incomes choose to devote
• These changes appear to be quite universal so far. However,
more resources to each child, and since this raises the cost of
whether childbearing is concentrated at younger ages or at
each child, it also leads to fewer children (Becker, 1981;
older ages and whether age at marriage rises or falls seems to
Willis, 1974, 1994).
vary from setting to setting, and patterns are still changing even
in the populations farthest along in the transition.
Population Growth
• Parents with fewer children are able to invest more in each
• The combination of fertility and mortality determines
child, reflecting the quality-quantity tradeoff, which may also
population growth.
be one of the reasons parents reduced their fertility (Becker,
• Between 1950 and 2050, the actual and projected trajectories
1981; Willis, 1974).
for the More, Less and Least Developed Countries are plotted.
Additional notes:
• One is a trajectory for Europe from 1800 to 1950. The end
• Birth Rate – number of births per 1000 individual per year
point of this trajectory in 1950 is quite close to the start point
• Death Rate (Mortality): The percentage of people who die
for the more developed countries.
relative to the country's population (annual)
• The starting points of these demographic paths differ
• Fertility Rate – Total number of children borne by a woman at
somewhat.
a point of time during her child-bearing age (15 to 45 years)\
• India had higher initial fertility and mortality than Europe, as
• Family size depends upon:
did the Least Developed Countries relative to the Less
- Duration of marriage
Developed Countries in 1950, which in turn had far higher
- Education of couple
mortality and fertility than the More Developed Countries in
- No of live birth
that year.
- Contraception
• Except for India, the starting points all indicate moderate (for
- Current population in the world
Europe) to rapid (for Least and Less Developed Countries)
- Current population in the Philippines
population growth.
• Age Dependency Ratio
• There has been rapid global convergence in fertility and
- The ratio of dependents--people younger than 15 or older
mortality among nations over the past 50 years, although
than 64--to the working-age population--those ages 15-64.
important differences remain.
Data are shown as the proportion of dependents per 100
• This convergence of fertility and mortality is in marked working-age population.
contrast to per capita GDP, which has tended to diverge
• Immigration - permanent arrival of an individual to the
between high-income and low-income countries during this
population.
time.
o Act of entering a foreign country, often for permanent
• Today, the median individual lives in a country with a total residency
fertility rate of 2.3—barely above the 2.1 fertility rate of the o Entering a foreign country
United States—and a median life expectancy at birth of 68
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[ F-
o Leaving the home country take care about the internal security to the international
• Expectation of life - at a given age is the average number of migrations. migrants. - Money sent by
years which a person of that age may expect to live, according - Money sent by the migrants the international migrants to
to the mortality pattern prevalent in that country. to their families is less when the home country is very
• Japan - leading length of lives expectancy. compared to the international high
• Median age – the age that divides a population into two migrants.
numerically equally sized groups - that is, half the people are Departure OF educated workers
younger than this age and half are older. It is a single index Brain Drain to another country
.
that summarizes the age distribution of a population. - Brain drain is a slang term indicating a significant 0
emigration
• Malthusian Theory of educated or talented individuals.
- Overpopulation and Massive Poverty. - A brain drain can result from turmoil within a nation, the
- Thomas malthus (1766-1834) thoerized pessimistically
that population was uncontrollable.
② existence of favorable professional opportunities in other
-
- Efficient utilization of resources Division of International Migrants Temporary Labor migrants
- Medical, agricultural and industrial growth - Who migrate for a limited period of time in order to work and
- Better Labour Force send remittances to families in the country of origin.
•
- Greater Investment in capital Formation
The "Perils" of Over Population
It ①
- Highly skilled and business migrants
• - People with qualifications such as the managers,
- Shortage of Food and land
-
→
• Those who are unable or unwilling to return to their
• Migration
country because of a ‗well-founded fear or persecution
•
- means crossing the boundary of a political or
↑ A
on account of race, religion, nationality, membership in a
°
administrative unit for a certain minimum period (Boyle particular social group or political opinion.
⑨
-
et al. 1998)
national• Internal Migration %iÉi%r%Tiang province district municipality
- Asylum seekers
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within
• Those who move across borders in search protection.
, ,
bounden.es
- the movement of people from one area like a province, a
district, or municipality to another within one country. Forced Migration
, - Do not pose a problem of brain drain - In a broader sense, this includesgnot only refugees and asylum
www.m,•
÷
International Migration ,mg,m
, , seekers but also people forced to move by environmental
boundenei- the @ crossing the frontiers which separate one of the catastrophes or development projects like new factories, road
worlds approximately 200 states from another. or damns.
0
←
- Pose a serious problem of brain drain of highly educated - Family Members – Also known as family reunion or family
people working for other country ‘s progress. reunification migrants.
- Note: Internal and international migration are part of the - Return Migrants – Those who return to their countries of
same process; they should be analyzed together. The origin after a period in another country.
great majority of border crossings do not imply Causes of Migration
migration: most travelers are tourists or business visitors
¥-
• Disparity in levels of income
who have no intention of staying in the country for good. •
•
Employment
Social well-being PEG
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D
A THE CONTEMPORARY WORLD – BSN 2ND YEAR 2ND SEMESTER FINAL 2022
M 3
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4 • Differences in demographic patterns with regard to fertility, Sustainable Development Goals
mortality, age-structure, and labor-force growth
s • According to neoclassic theory, the main cause of migration is End
poverty in
individual‘s effort to maximize their income by moving from all its
low-wage to high-wage economies. forms
everywher
"• Migration decisions are made not just by individuals- they e
often represent family strategies to maximize income and
survival chances (Hugo, 1994)
② Reasons for Migration
- Push factors - the reason why people leave an area.
• 1. Lack of services
-
• Lack of safety
• : High crime
] <
§É
'
• 4. Flooding
• t Poverty
.
• 6. War
]¥w • There was a strong impression that the global economy
- Pull factors - the reason why people move to a particular area. became the sphere of extreme uncertainty and risk during the
• Higher employment
-
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- These crises were mainly attributed to major political mistakes, - Modern debate on sustainability focused mainly on
but particularly alarming with their contagion effects. environmental questions.
- Since 2007, many countries had been trying to restore - In 1968, garret
stabilization. - Hardin wrote the famous book, Tragedy of Commons that
analyzed how public goods got exhausted by actors in a free
Sustainability market economy (Hardin, 1968)
- The Club of Rome published, The Limits to Growth that dealt
with the connection between economic growth and the scarcity
of resources.
- Rising awareness of the sustainability problem in
environmental issues and resources.
- Rising awareness of the sustainability problem in
environmental issues and resources translated also into
international cooperation.
- Sustainability perspectives started to be visible not only in the
environmental area but also on the theme of overpopulations.
Tropical Agriculture says the beans have been bred by in over 130 countries worldwide. FAO believes that everyone
conventional means to resist the drought conditions that can can play a part in ending hunger.
lead to starvation as arable land disappears.
• The group operates one of just two bean ―gene banks‖ in
Africa, which is expected to be hit hardest by climate change
even though the continent produces less than 4% of the
world‘s greenhouse gases, according to the UN Development
Program. Beans kept at the two banks are sent to partners in 30
across countries the continent to be developed further so they
can cope with local conditions. The Uganda bank stores
around 4,000 types of beans, including some sourced from
neighboring Rwanda before its 1994 genocide killed around
800,000 people and wiped out many of the country‘s bean
varieties. Aid workers hope the beans will encourage the
refugees to grow their own food rather than rely on handouts,
which in some cases have been cut because of funding An Evolving Concept of Food Security
shortages. - Food security is used widely across disciplines and issue areas.
- The prevalence of food insecurity is manifested by the
TheoChallenge of Feeding the World presence of hunger and malnourishment
• Global food security has become one of the challenges of the - Food security is associated with the availability of food at the
21‘st century. The increase of global food prices has caught local, national, and global levels. (McDonald, 2010)
the attention of all governments worldwide. The vulnerability - 1974 UN World Food Conference defined food security as the
of food systems to a number of demographic, socioeconomic, availability at all times of adequate world food supplies of
environmental and policy-related factors also among the basic foodstuffs to sustain a steady expansion of food
concerns of the globe. The detrimental impacts of high food consumption and to offset fluctuations in production and
prices and food and agriculture-related policies affected the prices (FAQ, 2003: 27)
poor and marginalized communities, specifically in the - Maxwell (1996) mentioned that in subsequent decades, three
developing countries. distinct paradigm shifts took place to significantly influence
the food security discourse and international agenda
- First paradigm shift was through the late 1970‘s and early
1980‘s in which the academic and policy discourse on food
security witnessed a shift away from the rather limiting focus
on food availability and supply as the core concerns of food
security
- The second paradigm shift highlighted the importance of
livelihood security as a key household priority and component
of food security, shaping decisions around whether or not to
go hungry in the short term
- The third shift indicates a move away from a purely calorie-
counting approach to food security, to one that incorporates
subjective measures of what it means to be food-secure,
including access to food that is preferable (Maxwell, 1988,
1996: 158-60)
- Food security exists when all people, at all times, have
• The upheavals in local food systems have an influence on the
physical, social and economic access to sufficient, safe, and
regional and global food security concerns. Conversely, the
nutritious food that meets their dietary need and food
developments at the global level often have the power to
preferences for an active and healthy life (FAO,2002).
penetrate deep within the regions and states to cause high
levels of insecurity.
Global Food Security-Key Trends Rising Food Prices and
• These developments may also have diverse and far-reaching Poverty
consequences for the security and over-all well-being of In the mid 2000‘s, global food prices began to climb.
communities across borders.
• The prices of key staples such as wheat, rice, maize, and soy-
bean as well as edible oils all soared.
Food Security
• Civil unrest in the forms of protests and riots in numerous
Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO)
countries around the world happened.
• The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) is a specialized
• The impact of food prices spikes has been most devastating to
agency of the United Nations that leads international efforts to
those who are in the poverty level.
defeat hunger.
• The global food price crisis in 2007-2008 may have forced as
• The goal is to achieve food security for all and make sure that
many as 100 million people deeper into poverty.
people have regular access to enough high-quality food to lead
active, healthy lives. With over 194 member states, FAO works
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• As the youth move from rural areas to urban areas to look for
better livelihoods, there are fewer people of working age left
behind to produce the growing quantities of food required to
meet rising demand in urban areas.
• The mass movement of people from rural to urban areas has
also been accompanied by a rapid and ongoing expansion of
cities and slums in parts of Asia
• By 2030, urban populations and the number of slum dwellers
in Africa and Asia are set to double
• Slums are characterized by lack of access to clean drinking
water, inadequate sanitation and waste disposal mechanism,
making resident population highly vulnerable to quick-
spreading disease and chronic food insecurity (CISS, 2013).
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• Much of the growth of meat consumption took place in Asia Climate Change
in general and in china in particular (Kearney, 2010:2796) Climate change affects all four dimensions of food security: food
• However, not all developing countries have experienced this availability, food accessibility, food utilization, and food systems
phenomenon of nutrition transition equally stability
• In India, for example, the consumption of meat continues to • Agriculture is highly-sensitive to climate, and food production
lag behind when compared to Brazil and china for people at is affected directly by variations in agroecological conditions
similar income levels. for growing crops (Devereux and Maxwell, 2001; Fischer et
• The overall demand for grains for direct and indirect al., 2002; Kurukulasuriya and Rosenthal, 2003; Schmidhuber
consumption through animal products continues to expand and Tubeillo, 2007)
• In China, the increasing conversion of land for intensive • Overall studies show that the impacts of climate changes will
mono-cropping of soybeans and maize for animal feed over be mixed and uneven across regions (IPCC, 2007)
the decades had caused immense pollution of waterways by
pesticides and fertilizers, declines in biodiversity, the
destruction of natural carbon sinks and rising greenhouse gas
emissions (Schneider 2011).
• By 2050, climate change impacts could increase the risk of citizens because in many cases, they are basically promoting
food insecurity by up to 20 percent. their own particular concern
• To adequately feed the global population in 2050, crop • Campaigning to transnational organizations is committed to
production would have to double, global causes.
• Catches of the world's most relied-upon fish are expected to ② Global Civil Society
decrease by up to 60 percent by 2050
- The concept of civil society has become central to social
• Livestock contributes almost 80 percent of agricultural
theory since the 1980's when dissident intellectuals in Eastern
methane emissions, and about 66 percent of greenhouse gas
Europe looked to social networks initiated from below to
emissions.
provide a sphere of independence from the state and a basis for
• Food loss or waste generates about 8 percent of annual
resistence.
greenhouse emissions.
- The existence of autonomous social groups and institutions
• 78 percent of the world's food-insecure people rely on has been seen as essential to democratization both in
agriculture for their livelihoods, remaining communist regimes such as China and in other
authoritarian states
GLOBAL CITIZESHIP - Democratic theorists have argued that civil society is essential
Discussed by Prof. Guillermo
to liberal democracies as a barrier to an encroaching state
Global Citizenship
- Participation in voluntary bodies provides a political education
-
-
the idea of all people have rights and civic responsibilities that
come with being a member of the world, with whole world
-
and promotes responsible citizenship
Hegel and Marx conceptualized civil society as the sphere
philosophy and sensibilities, rather than as a citizen of a _
:
Acting as Global Citizen equality and human rights.
• The world citizen was typically an intellectual, who travelled - Transnational organizations supporting human rights are often
widely, met and corresponded with intellectuals in many cited in discussion of both global society and global
countries and advanced cosmopolitan views. citizenship
• Since 1945, the global citizen is usually pictured as the activist - Richard Falk discussed how global city society promotes a
on transnational social movements world order based not on state interests but on the interest and
right of human beings
• The idea that travelling is an expression of cosmopolitanism is
- Amnesty International and regional human rights bodies typify
indeed debatable
this move towards 'a law of humanity'
• However, there are travels that are seen as means of promoting
- Amnesty international is probably the best known human
international understanding like exchanges between
rights campaigning organization with a separate international
schoolchildren.
secretariat and sections in many parts of the world
• The image of wandering scholar is still part of a cosmopolitan
- It is used to exemplify transnational action to protect
view of the world of learning individual rights
• It is also encouraged by governments to promote friendly - Amnesty has played a role in strengthening global civil society
relations between countries. - It can also be seen as a collective global citizen
• In the beginning of the 21st century, there was the - Human Rights Watch, which based in the USA, is one of those
development of informal networks and formal transnational who play important role in monitoring human rights
organizations worldwide and protesting about abuses.
• These organizations pursue professional or social interests that
have become an important feature of international politics
• The existence of these organizations can be interpreted as the Copy paste lng sa PPT ni Sir Guillermo hehe Konti nlnggg
creation of civil global society matatapos na 2nd semm guys.
• The existence of transnational associations does not Kaya natin tooo and Goood luckkk!! – Aki
necessarily mean that those involved are acting as global
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