MEET OUR GROUP

AGLERON, MICHAEL AY H O N , S H I E L A ANTONIO,MA.

MEAP RY N O E M E LY N
1 S T R E P ORT E R 2ND R O RT E R 3 R D R E P ORT E R
AH

ARDANIEL, JAN A B I B I C O , PAT R I C I A AGUIRRE,

MICHAELA
4 T H R E P O RT E R 5 T H R E P O RT E R K HENRICK
6 T H R E P O RT E R

20XX 1
THE GLOBAL
DEMOGRAPHY
AGENDA

 Introduction

 The demographic transition: three centuries of

fundamental change

 Morality decline

 Fertility transition

 Population growth

 The consequence of demographic transition

 Summary

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INTRODUCTION

WHAT IS DEMOGRAPHY?

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 THE DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION: THREE
CENTURIES OF FUNDAMENTAL CHANGE
The classic demographic transition begins with declining mortality, followed by
decreased fertility after a period of time. Resulting in a first increased and then
decreased interval. Population growth has slowed, and finally, the population is aging.  
 

(2.) The demographic transition

model:
growth rates in the More Developed Countries rose about a
half percent above

those in the Less Developed Countries in the century before

1950. But after World

War II, population growth surged in the Less Developed

Countries, with the growth

rate peaking at 2.5 percent in the mid-1960s, then dropping

rapidly. The global

population share of the More Developed Countries is

projected to drop from its

current 20 percent to only 14 percent in 2050.

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MORALITY DECLINE:

• In northwest Europe, where mortality started a secular decline, the global demographic shift
began approximately 1800, a decrease.
• Reductions in infectious and contagious illnesses caused by air and water are responsible for
the first stage of the mortality fall.
• Smallpox vaccination and preventive medicine were major contributors to the drop in
mortality in the 18th century.
• As income increased, better personal hygiene also played a role.
• The gem theory of disease gained popularity.
• The development of nutrition is a significant additional factor in the early stages of growing
life expectancy.
• The death rate during the famine was lowered by advancements in transportation and storage.
Better nutrition was achieved during childhood and throughout adulthood as a result of
consistent income growth.
• In the populations of industrialized nations, life expectancy is favorably correlated with height
(Fogel,Barker (1992; 1994.)

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MORALITY DECLINES:

• Reductions in chronic and degenerative diseases, particularly heart disease and cancer, have been a major
factor in the recent mortality decline (Riley, 2001).
• The human genome project and stem cell research hold promise for future benefits. Publicly organized and
funded biomedical research has assumed an increasing role in the latter part of the 20th century.
• With an increase of 48 years per year over 80 years, India's life expectancy increased from from 24 years in
1920 to 62 years now. The increase in life expectancy in China over 45 years, from 41 in 1950–1955 to 70 in
1995–1999, was.65 years per year.
• On the optimistic side, Oeppen and Vaupel (2002) provide an amazing graph showing the maximum national
female life expectancy obtained for each year from 1840 to 2000.
• With a slope of 2.4 years every decade, the points roughly follow a straight line from 45 years in Sweden to 85
years in Japan. If we boldly push the line ahead in time, it will be 97.5 years by the middle of the 20th century
and 109 years by the year 2100.
• Less rosy predictions are derived from extrapolating patterns in age-specific mortality rates over the previous
50 or 100 years. By the end of the 21st century, the average life expectancy in high-income countries will be
approaching 90 years, according to this strategy (Lee and Carter, 1992; Tuljapurkar, Li and Boe, 2000).

20XX PRESENTATION TITLE 7

 FERTILITY TRANSITION

• Between 1890 and 1920, marital fertility began to decline in most European provinces, with a

• median decline of about 40 percent from 1870 to 1930 (Coale and Treadway, 1986, p. 44).

• Most economic theories of fertility start with the idea that couples wish to have a certain number of

• surviving children, rather than births per se.

• Some of the improvement in child survival is itself a response to parental decisions to invest more

• in the health and welfare of a smaller number of children (Nerlove, 1974).

• These issues of parental investment in children suggest that fertility will also be inè influenced by how economic change influences the costs and
benefitsŽ of childbearing.

• Bearing and rearing children is time intensive.

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FERTILITY TRANSITION

• Technological progress and increasing physical and human capital make labor more productive,

raising the value of time in all activities, which makes children increasingly costly relative to

consumption goods.

• Since women have had primary responsibility for childbearing and rearing, variations in the

productivity of women have been particularly important.

• Rising incomes have shifted consumption demand toward nonagricultural goods and services, for

which educated labor is a more important input.

• Overall, these patterns have several effects: children become more expensive, their economic

contributions are diminished by school time and educated parents have higher value of time, which

raises the opportunity costs of childrearing.

• Furthermore, parents with higher incomes choose to devote more resources to each child, and

since this raises the cost of each child, it also leads to fewer children (Becker, 1981; Willis, 1974, 1994).

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POPULATION GROWTH
•THE COMBINATION OF FERTILITY AND MORTALITY DETERMINES POPULATION GROWTH.
•BETWEEN 1950 AND 2050, THE ACTUAL AND PROJECTED TRAJECTORIES FOR THE MORE,
LESS AND LEAST DEVELOPED COUNTRIES ARE PLOTTED
• The first shows the course of Europe from 1800 to 1950. For the more developed countries, the end point
of this trajectory in 1950 is rather close to the starting position.
• Compared to the Less Developed Countries in 1950, which themselves had far greater mortality and
fertility than the More Developed Countries in that year, both India and the Least Developed Countries
had higher initial fertility and mortality than Europe.
•The beginning points all point to moderate (for Europe) to rapid (for Least and Less Developed
Countries) population increase, with the exception of India.
• Over the past 50 years, there has been a dramatic global convergence in fertility and mortality among
nations, albeit significant variations still exist.
• Contrasting sharply with the per capita GDP, which has tended to differ between high-income and low-
income countries throughout this time, is the convergence of fertility and mortality.
• The average person today lives in a nation with a total fertility rate of 2.3, just slightly higher than the
United States' 2.1 fertility rate, and a median life expectancy at birth of 68 years, as opposed to the United
States' 77 years (Wilson, 2001).

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THE CONSEQUENCE OF DEMOGRAPHIC
TRANSITOIN

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 SUMMARY

20XX 12
THANK YOU!!

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