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POPULATION SYSTEM CONTROL

++
Jian Song+ Deyong Kong+ Jingyuon Yu
+State Science and Technology Commission of China

'+Institute of Information and Control, Beijing

Abstract. In this paper the importance and urgency for population control
in China is exulained. The successful results gained in Dooulation control
are introduced'briefly. A brief introduction o‘i main propositions and
applications, such as mathematical modelling, projection, stability,
observability, controllability, target population, optimal control and the
theory of distributed parameter population systems are given here. The
paper concludes with that the study of population system control which
gives us the inspiration to develop a new discipline, Systematology, to
tackle the important issues which confront us in modern society.

adopted by foresighted governments. But some

INTRODUCTION
people still insist: "It is a human right,
according to the level of knowledge and the
On July llth, this year the world population
wishes of the individual to decide the number
reached the 5 billion point as forecast by
and interval of birth." This kind of
computer projection. There were only 1
viewpoint could be justified when the world
billion people in 1830. Since then, the
was sparsely populated. Nowadays, as the
number has been expanding in geometric
world population is more than 5 billion, it is
progression, the intervals for each billion
very harmful for developing countries, though
increase were 100, 30, and 15 years
it may be possible in some developed nations.
respectively, and it took only 13 years from 4
these two kinds of countries are in different
billion to 5 billion. The burgeoning
stages of the population development process.
population has outstripped economic expansion,
the population development process can be
overburdening the planet and becoming a
divided into three stages. First, the stage
crucial issue of social development, national
of high birth rate and high death rate. In
and international political stability.
the primary stage of the development of the
human race productivity was very low, science
China is the most populous country in the
and technology were underdeveloped and
world. The total population is 1.057 billion
resistance to disease and disaster was wry
and it increased by about 14 million in 1986.
weak. Though the birth rate was very high,
Because China is a developing country, so many
the death rate was very high, too. According
extra children born every year are a heavy
to archaeological statistical calculation.
burden. For example, if the average expense
400,000 years ago, in the age of Homo erectus
for one child per year is $300, the total
Pekinesis, the average life expectation was
expense will be 420 million per year, which is
only 16 years. In this stage, the population
29% of percentage increase of national income
growth rate was very low. the second stage
in 1986. China's cultivated land is only 7%
combines a high birth rate with a low death
of the world's, but 20.8% of the world
rate. As productivity and the level of the
population has to be supported by it. Each
development of science and technology are
person in China now averages 0.1 hectare of
raised, and medical and health care are
cultivated land, one third of the world's,
improved, the death rate rapidly decreases
Furthermore, China's farmland is diminishing
correspondingly. the population increases
at a startling rate. Statistics reveal that
quickly. The third stage is a combination of
an average of 520,000 hectares of cultivated
low birth and low death rates. As
land has been lost each year since 1957,
productivity increases further, the material
because of population growth and other
and spiritual life of human beings is
factors. However~ this has added more strain People's ideas concerning child-
enriched.
on the existing insufficiency of farmland.
bearing change. They are less willing to have
Clean water is becoming a critical resource in more children. So, the birth rate decreases,
and the population growth rate approaches zero
many areas. China has a total of 2,800
or minus.
billion cubic metres of fresh water annually.
Owing to the huge population, the per capita
Only developed countries are at this stage.
runoff is only one-fourth of that of the
Most of the developing countries are in the
international level and distribution is quite
second stage. Today, 90% of world's
uneven, the current water shortage has become
population increase occurs in developing
an important factor holding back the growth of
countries, particularly in regions with
industry and farm production.
backward economies and low standards of
living. The population explosion has
The tremendous population pressures lead to
outstripped their economic expansion,
social and ecological problems. For instance,
straining their resources and becoming a
desirable relationships are not maintained
crucial issue of social development, political
between population and work opportunities. We
conflict, civil strife and international
are witnessing the deforestation, soil erosion
stability. So, it is impossible to move from
and deserts encroachment, as people search for
the second to the third stage naturally. The
food and fuel.
only solution is to work out and implement
Leading intellectuals show grave concern over population policies and plans suitable for
Population their specific conditions.
the rapid growth of population.
control is therefore being advocated and

II
China is the first country in the world to continuous model or a discrete model. The
carry out family planning and population deterministic continuous model of the
control, and in this she has achieved population system is described by partial
remarkable success. The total fertility rate* differential equations with boundary feedback
dropped from 7.5 in 1963 to 2.4 in 1982, and being considered as the distributed parameter
the natural growth rate from 33.3% in 1963 to system. The discrete model is described by
14.08% in 1986. The world population would difference equations being considered as a
have reached 5 billion two years ago and would bilinear system. these models can be
be more than 5.13 billion now if China had not described by formulas (1) and (2) as follows:
controlled its growth over the past decade.
China's successful family planning programme The continuous equations of the population
has proved that human beings can control process are
themselves by correct population policy and
planning.
m + ape = -p(a,t)p(a,t)
How to carry out the family planning programme
aa at
and control population growth are important
and interesting issues for scientists to p(a,O) = p,(a)
study. These issues are related to
a2
demography, economics, sociology, behavioral
science, psychology, medical science, and P(O,t) = b(t) = B(t) s k(a,t) h(a,t)
moreover, to modern natural science. In order a1
to work out and implement population policies p(a,t) da (1)
and plans, a theory of population system
control is needed. It is a theory of Here, a refers to age, and t stands for
quantitative analysis. time, p(a,t) is population density function,
p(a,t) is the death rate function, 4(t) is
From the viewpoint of cybernetics, the whole the birth rate function, p(t) is the total
population of the world is a system, which is fertility rate, k(a,t) is the women's sex
named population system. Many factors ratio function, h(a,t) is the women's
determine population changes in a society. fertility pattern.
Social institutions, environment, standard of
living, level of education, wars, natural The discrete equations of the population
disasters, migration, and so on can all affect system are
population development. But only fertility,
mortality, and migration are the direct causes x(t+l) = H(t)x(t) + P(t)B(t)x(t) + G(t)
of population changes. It is through these x(0) = (x1(O), x,(O), . x,(O))
three that all factors affecting
sociodemographic changes are manifested.
dhhere
In the early 1970's, several scholars such as
D.R. Falkenburg(l973), G.J. Olsder and
Strijobs (1975), Langhaar (1973), and H.
Kwakernack (1977), began applying the methods
and viewpoints of modern control theory to the
study of population problems, and we have
gained a good deal of enlightenment from their
work. Currently, a lot of natural scientists
in China are involved in this field and
achieved much.

MAIN PROPOSITIONS AND APPLICATIONS

1. Mathematical Modelling of the population

system. In the 1930's, an integral equation 0 0 b (t) b (t) 0 . . .
model for an invariant population system was a1 a2
set up by Lotka. A difference equation model B(t) =
was established by Leslie. In the 1960's a 0 3
L
partial differential equation model was set up
by Von Foerster. On the basis of Leslie's Here, x(t) is the population, whose full age
work, Pollard proposed a stochastic model in is in the integer value interval (i,i+l] at
the 1970s. In consideration of the feedback time t X(t) is the vector of population
mechanizm of population system, and on the state, g (t) is the number of the population
basis of those models mentioned above, to from i to (i+l) who have migrated in or out
distinguish clearly among the state variables, of the area in the year to (i+l). H(t) may be
the control variables and the observed called the matrix of population state
variables, in recent years a close loop transition; B(t), the fertility matrix; and
control model for the population system was set G(t), the migration vector.
UP. Chinese scientists in the field of cyber-
netics made new advances in this area. Among the various factors affecting the
The control models of population system can be population development process, only the
classified into two types, deterministic and fertility factor can be controlled. If the
stochastic, see Song and Yu (1984). In birth rate function d(t) is taken as the
accordance with whether age and time are control variable, then the population control
continuous or discrete quantities, the model is an open loop system; if the total
population model can be classified as either a fertility rate o(t) is considered as the
control variable, then the system is a closed
one. In China's family planning programme
P(t) is taken as the control variable. For
x
The total fertility rate is equivalent to the instance, the population policy "One couple-
total number of babies born in the life span one child" which we in China have proposed
of woman in a rather stable society. means that the total fertility rate p(t) = 1.
 Proc,. 6th Int.. Conf. on Muthrrnutiuzl ModrIling 13

The models mentioned above can be used either change would occur in 200 years. This shows
in the study of an invariant population system that population projection is very important
or a variant population system. The classical
solution and general solution of a variant The processing of population parameters has a
population system have been given by Chinese great influence on population projection. The
scientists Song and Chen (1982), providing a death rate p(a,t), women's fertility patterns
theoritical basis for the study of a variant h(a,t), women's sex ratio functions k(a,t),
population system. The classical Lotka's migration patterns and the initial population
equations can be deduced from continuous age structure, are population parameteres.
models. This illustrates that Lotka's model Some good demographic methods to smooth and
is only a special case of continuous model extrapolate these parameters exist already,
established above. Any demographic conclusion see Coale (1973). Parameter identification
obtained from Lotka's integral equations can technology have been applied to process these
be obtained from the control model, but the parameters.
converse of this statement is not true.
In recent years, by means of the theory of
These two mathematical models have been population projection, some authors have made
checked against China's population statistics. some projections about professional workers,
The results showed that, the short term such as teachers and students, science and
accuracy is about 0.1% technology professionals, and so on. Others
have made .some projections concerning
biocommunity development.
The continuous model is suitable for
theoretical analysis, and the discrete model
3. Stability of The Population System
is suitable for calculation and simulation by
The population system is a dynamic system with
a computer.
positive feedback. There exists a stability
problem in the sense defined by Liapunov. For
Population conditions differ widely in
any invariant population system, there exists
different areas in a country as large as
a critical fertility rate @,r. It can be
China. A large scale system model of the
population can be established on the basis of proved by the theories of linear operator
the above mentioned models. Population spectrum and semigroup. It can be defined by
statistics, projections and controls in the following formulas:
different levels can be realized by means of For continuous population model
computers and communication networks. This is
population system engineering, see Song and Yu
(1984). When the population process is
treated as a stochastic process, a population k(a)h(=)=
-s; p(E)dtda
I-1
model of stochastic control can be set up.
There are two different types of stochastic For discrete population model
models, continuous and discrete, see Song and
Yu (1984). The evolution equations of
a2 -1
expectation, variance, and related functions
p,,= 1 kihi(l-+,o)(l-~o)...(l-~i_l)
are included in these models. Moreover, the 1
i=a
evolution equation of expertation is 1
consistent with that of deterministic model.
The results for population projection are Here, p. is the death rate of infant. It can
consistent, too. An accurate estimation for
be proved that P,, is the first order
the projection of expectation can be given by
stochastic model. Establishing the model and approximation ot fl,,, According to this
making a parameter estimation of the calculation and using the data of 1978
population system can be achieved by means of population census, China's critical fertility
the identification theory. rate is p,, = 2.16.

2. Population system projections

The projection of population development is There is a close relationship between critical
very important in setting up population fertility rate and Liapunov stability of the
policies and making plans, and those concerned population system. It can be shown from the
with the national economy. The population following proved facts given by Song and Yu
system is a dynamic one, which possesses great (1984).
inertia. Its time constant equivalent to the
mean expectation of life, is about 70 years, (1). If B(t)>B,,, the population system is
see Song and Yu (1984). The social meaning of unstable. The total population will increase
this character is: the impact of a population indefinitely with an exponential law and its
policy (it is the input of the population Xt
system) on the population system can not be asymptotical state is Cle
seen immediately, and a very long period of
time is need. If our descendants discover and
experience the mistakes of current wrong (2). If B(tKP,,, the population system is
population policies, they will suffer and asymptotically stable, the total population
spend much time in correcting them. The will approach to zero with an exponential law
difficult situation that the Chinese people Xt
face today is the result of a wrong population as time increases.
policy in 1950s and 60s. c2e

According to the projection of Song, eta1 (3). If B(t)=@,,, the population system is
(1980)s if we wish to change the current 1 stable but not asymptotically stable. The
billion population to 720 million that it was asymptotical state of the total population is
in 1964, it would take 75 years, even if every constant. This is the population process of
woman in the whole country in her fertile zero growth.
years would only bear one child from now on.
If every couple would have two children, this It can be seen from the above fact that, if a
country or an area is faced with the necessity
of decreasing its population, as in China, the and ecological equilibrium, the appropriate
total fertility rate @ must be controlled so target population for China is 700 million.
as to be less than the critical fertility rate
p,,. Otherwise, it is impossible. On the These studies are only the beginning and much
remains to be done.
contrary, if a population increase is desired,
it is necessary that the total fertility rate
6. Optimal control of the Population System
must be greater than the critical fertility
700 million is China's target population in
rate. If a constant population is to be But China's population already
the iong run.
maintained, the total fertility rate must be
exceeds 1 billion. How can we change from the
equal to the critical fertility rate.
present 1 billion to 700 million and stabilize
at that level, this is a question of
In the past 30 years, China's actual fertility The only way to
population transition.
rate has always been greater than the critical
realize this transition is through control of
fertility rate, so the population has
the total fertility rate 0. But how is this
increased steadily. But with the
regulation law determined? Applying the
population control programme of the past theory of optimal control to solve the
decade, the rate of increase has showed down,
transition problem of the population system is
For instance, according to the calculation of . .
a propositron that has not been solved before
the statistics of 1981, ,0(1981)=2.63, it is
in classical demography.
still bigger than the critical fertility rate.
So, controlling China's population is still an
arduous task. The optimal control of a population system can
be stated as follows: given a target
The stability of the variant population system population NV, find the optimal total
has been studied recently. A concept of an
upper and lower critical fertility rate is fertility rate p*(t), t E[O,T], P*(t)GJ
introduced. The stability of a large scale Under the control of ,9*(t), let the
population system has been studied on the population system change from the initial
basis of urban and rural subsystems. The state x0 to the ideal state XT(t). In the
stability affected by the migration between
process of control, the population state
urban and rural areas is discussed.
X(t)EQ(t) and the control /9*(t) will
4. Observability and Controllability of the minimize the performance index J. Then, the
Population System
B*(t) is called the optimal control of the
All indices in the population system model can
population system. Here, Q(t) is the whole
be considered as observations. If the
collection of population states that satisfy
population state in certain year can be
the following constraints:
decided solely by the observations obtained
from statistics, then the system is said to be
(1). The peak value of the total population
observable. It can be proved that, if the N (t) should not exceed a given value No.
total population N(t) is considered as an max
observation, the system is observable (Hu,
eta1 (1983)). (2). In the process of transition toward the
ideal population, the social dependency ratio
The controllability of the population system p(t) should not be larger than some prescribed
is defined as follows: value pg.

On the space of population states RE, for any (3). Similarly, attention must also be paid
to ageing. To prevent the population from
two population state vectors
and XX if
0 T' becoming too old in the process of control,
within a limited period of time (such as n the ageing index w(t) should be excessively
years), population control P(t), t=l, 2,...n, larger than a given value wo.
within its permissible constrains can transfer
the population system from X0 to XT, we say
U is a set of admissible controls, p(t) can
that the population system is completely only take values within U. l%+)<BclG1.
controllable on the space of population states
U=[P,~B,l
Ri. It has been proved that for discrete
model, if B(t) is taken values for [fl,, &I, The selection of performance index J is not
then the necessary and sufficient conditions _
unique. natural selection is that
T-l
of controllability of population system is
J - ,;, ( x(t)-x*(t) )T ( X(t)-X*(t) )
that BL< Bcl< B,. Here, 8,, is the critical
fertility rate of discrete system.
The existence of optimal control and its
5. China's Target Population conditions having to be satisfied has been
The short-term target of China's population is proved, by Song (1980). The calculation shows
no more than 1.2 billion at the end of this that about 100 years is needed from now to
century. What will be our population realize the 700 million target population.
development in the next century? It must be
planned from now on, because of the large time 7. Accurate Calculations of Population
constant of the population system, and in Indices
order to leave a rational population structure Population indices, such as, birth rate, death
and a good environment for our descendants. rate, life expectancy, length between two
How many people can China's 9.6 million square female generations, women's pure reproduction
kilometers of land and natural resources rate and so on reflect quantitatively the
support? This is a question of China's target social characters of a population development
population. On the basis of the quantitative prOCSSS. These indices can be obtained from
studies of natural resources, the level of the statistics of census and sampling, or from
socioeconomic development, living standards, formulas. Each index of a certain year can be
obtained, only if the population state of this
 Proc. 6th Int. ConJ. on Mathematical
year is known. From the viewpoint of
mathematics, any item of population indices is
a functional (linear or nonlinear) of the
population state. On the basis of this idea,
the accurate formulas for the population
indices, such as average life expectancy,
length between two female generations and
women's pure reproduction rate of invariant
population system are given. These results
are extended to the variant population system.
Meanwhile, it has been proved that the
formulas in demography are only the first
order approximation of these accurate
formulas. Moreover, some new population
indices are defined, for instance, the time
constant of population system etc, interested
readers please see Song and Yu (1984).
8. Theory of Distributed Parameter Population
system
In recent years, on the basis of above work,
the dynamic process of the population system
has been studied further, and the theory of
distributed parameter population system has
been shown to be rather primitive. Starting
from the continuous model (l), applying the
spectrum theory of functional analysis, the
spectrum characteristic of population
development operator related to the eigenvalue
characteristics of the population dynamic
process has been studied. Then, the
asymptotic formula and stability theory of the
population development process are
established, and another method for finding
the critical fertility rate has been found.
The extent of the influence of the critical
fertility rate upon population structure is
pointed out quantitatively. The theorem of
controllability is deduced from the
completeness of the root subspace of
population operators. Moreover, the optimal
control theory of the population parameters to
population development and the methods of
population parameter estimation and analysis
are in progress. These results are not only
suitable for the population system, but also
for other ecological systems.
CONCLUSIONS
The main propositions of population system
control and their role in dealing with the
complicated issues of population control are
introduced. But it does not mean that other
studies of demography can be determined or
replaced by the study of population system
control. The important role of the latter can
be put into full play only if it can be
combined with the studies of other demography.
Population system control is a typical social
control system, its controlled object, control
form and type, information transfer and
feedback form, etc. are different from an
engineering system. At the same time as
quantitative analysis, the social behavior of
the population system must be studied. For
instance, according to the study of the
population system control, the current China's
optimal total fertility rate is 1 to 1.5, but
the implementation of this control has met
with great social rather than technical
difficulties, especially in rural areas, The
short and long term population plan can not be
realized, if powerful political and economic
measures are not adopted. What we have talked
till now is only quantity control of
population. Nothing has been discussed on the
other important issue-quality control. The
emergence and development, because it shakes
off the yoke of the idea that social problems
cannot be studied by the methods of natural
sciences. It has proved that, quantitative
MCM 0x-s
Modelling 15
analysis has ulayed an important role in
social science studies. It is an inexorable
trend that precise scientific methods help to
develop modern science. This kind of
scientific method has permitted various
fields, such as economics, military science,
management science and psychology, etc. This
trend not only shows the great progress of
scientific thought, but also shows that the
development of science now makes possible the
integration of the natural and social
sciences. Recently, professor Qian Xuesen
advocated a new discipline, Systematology,
which is a science to study the general law of
system structures, and their evolution,
coordination and control on the basis of those
theories, such as the Dissipative Structure
Theory, Synergetics, Catastrophe theory, etc.
It will surely be a positive step, if the
natural and social sciences integrate to
tackle the important issues facing our modern
society.
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