JAIPURIA INSTITUTE OF MANAGEMENT, NOIDA

PGDM (G-SM-M) TRIMESTER IV; AY 2020-21; Batch 2019-21

Course Code and title OM 504: Business Forecasting

Credits
Term and Year
Course Pre-requisite(s)
Course Requirement(s)
Course Schedule (day and time of class)
Classroom # (Location)
Course Instructor
Course Instructor Email
Course Instructor Phone (Office)
Student Consultation Hours
Office location
3
IV Term, 2020 -21
Statistics for Management
Basic Concepts of Statistics
Time Table Slot here
As informed by program office
Dr. Tavishi Tewary
tavishi.tewary@jaipuria.ac.in

1. Course Overview

Business forecasting leads to effective management by increasing accuracy and reducing bias
in forecasting process. Effective management, requires an understanding of the realities,
limitations, and principles fundamental to the process. Lack of basic concepts like
randomness, variation, uncertainty, and forecast ability, the organization is apt to squander
time and resources on expensive and unsuccessful fixes. This course aims to provide an
introduction to the practice of forecasting in business. Forecasting requires both practical
experience in model building and some statistical theory. To blend the theory and practice,
many business forecasting examples are discussed. Excel/ Eviews is used to do useful
preliminary calculations and plotting. At the end of this course, students should be able to
understand the major techniques of forecasting and be able to intelligently forecast actual
business time series using Excel and its extensions.

2. Graduate Attributes(GAs), Key Differentiators (KDs), Programme Learning Outcomes

(PLOs), and CLOs

Graduate Attributes (GAs)

GA 1: Self-initiative
GA 2: Deep Discipline knowledge
GA 3: Critical Thinking and Problem Solving
GA 4: Humanity, Team-Building and Leadership Skills
GA 5: Open and Clear Communication
GA 6: Global Outlook
GA 7: Ethical Competency and Sustainable Mindset
GA 8: Entrepreneurial and Innovative

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Key Differentiators

KD 1: Entrepreneurial Mindset
KD 2: Critical Thinking
KD 3: Sustainable Mindset
KD 4: Team-Player

Programme Learning Outcomes (PLOs)

The graduates of PGDM at the end of the programme will be able to:

PLO1: Communicate effectively.

PLO2: Demonstrate ability to work in teams to achieve desired goals.
PLO3: Reflect on business situations applying relevant conceptual frameworks.
PLO4: Deconstruct ethical business practices.
PLO5: Comprehend sustainability issues.
PLO 6: Exhibit creative thinking.

Course Learning Outcomes (CLO)

At the end of the course, the students should be able to:

CLO1: Summarize assumptions diagnostics of classical linear regression model (Understand-
factual)
CLO2: Determine parameter of time series models using financial/economic data (Evaluate-
Conceptual)
CLO3 (for AOL): Apply relevant conceptual frameworks to business situations (Evaluate-
Procedural)

3. Mapping of CLOs with PLO and GAs

  PLO 1 PLO 2 PLO 3 PLO 4 PLO 5 PLO 6

CLO1
CLO2
CLO3 M

GA 1 GA 2 GA 3 GA 4 GA 5 GA 6 GA 7 GA 8
Self Deep Critical Humilit Open Global Ethical Entrepr
initiative discipline thinking y, team and outlook compe eneurial
knowled and work clear tency and
ge problem and commu and innovat
solving leaders nicatio sustain ive
hip n able
skills minds
et
CLO 1 X X

CLO 2 X X

CLO 3 X X X X X

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4. Text Book

Text Book

D. Gujarati, D. Porter and S. Gunasekran, Basic Econometrics, 5th edition (Rev.), McGraw-
Hill, 2012.

References

J.M. Wooldridge, Introductory Econometrics, 5th edition, 2013, South-Western.

J.H. Stock and M.W. Watson, Introduction to Econometrics, 2nd edition, 2007, Pearson
Education: Addison Wesley.

W.H. Greene, Econometric Analysis. 6th edition. 2008, Prentice-Hall.

William E. Griffiths, R. Carter Hill, Guay C. Lim, Using EViews for Principles of
Econometrics, 4th edition, 2012, Wiley

H. Studenmund, Using Econometrics, A Practical Guide, 6th edition, Addison-Wesley.

5. Assessment Tasks
Assessment Item Description Weightag CLO
e
Quiz Class activity (LMS) 10% CLO 1
Project work It will be a group work. 30% CLO 2, CLO3
The students will be asked to
conceptualize the research
problem and use data analysis
for solving the research
problem and it will be checked
with turnitin for plagiarism.

Viva based on Questions based on the project 20% CLO1, CLO 2

project Work work given to the students
End Term It will be based on entire 40% CLO 2, CLO
Examination syllabus and will be executed 3
in computer lab. The question
paper will be designed in such
a way so as to evaluate
students on three parameters:
Knowledge; Application and
Skills.

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For AOL Purpose:

Assessment Task Marks CLO Reference

1. Individual Viva based on project 20 CLO1, CLO 2
Work
2. End Term Hall Examination 40 CLO 2, CLO 3

6. Session Plan
Sessio Topic Requirements: Session Learning CLO
n Readings/Cases Outcome

Module I: The Nature and Sources of Data for Economic Analysis

1 Relevance and Handout Need and basic principles 1

importance of of econometrics analysis
econometrics, Nature of Chapter 1 (Page
regression analysis and 15-37) and Understanding regression
concept of two variables Chapter 2 (Page analysis and how it is
regression 38-60) different from causation
and correlation.

2 Estimation problems of Chapter 3 (Page The assumptions of 1

two variables regression 61-104) CLRM, properties of
model ordinary least square
(OLS) estimators,
concept of goodness of fit
etc.

3 Hands on training Practice session Estimation of two 1

session on two variables variables regression using
regression using Ms- Ms-Excel
Excel

Module II: Assumptions and Diagnostic of Classical Normal Liner Regression

Model

4 Introduction to Classical Chapter 4 (Page Understanding the 2

Normal Linear 105-114) probability distribution
Regression Model and normality assumption
of error term, properties
of OLS under normality
assumption

5 Concept and Estimation Chapter 7 (Page Understand the estimation 2

problems of Multiple 203-248) procedure of multiple
Regression Model regression model

6 Inference problems of Chapter 8 (Page Understanding the 2

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 Multiple Regression 249-294) inference related
Model problems while testing
the multiple regression
model

7 Hands on training Practice session Estimation of two 2

session on multiple variables regression
regression model using
Eviews

Module III: Panel Data Analysis.

8 Panel Data Chapter 16 (Page Recognition of panel 3

592-593) data

9 Pooled OLS Regression Chapter 16 (Page Develop and analyses 3

or Constant 594) Pooled OLS model
Coefficients Model

10 The Fixed Effect Chapter 16 (Page Develop and analyses 3

Model 596) Fixed Effect model

11 Random Effects Model Chapter 16 (Page Develop and analyses 3

602) Random Effect model

Module IV: AR, MA, ARMA and VAR Modeling of Time Series Data

12 Chapter 21 (Page Understand the time 1

Need and basic concepts
780-821) series analysis and
of ARMA
concept of stationarity

13 Chapter 21 (Page Testing of stationarity 3

Testing the stationarity 780-821) using financial time series
data

14 ARMA Models Chapter 21 (Page Understanding ARMA 3

780-821) modeling

15 Hands on training Practice session in Hands on practice on 3

session on testing the Computer Lab ARMA models using
Stationarity and ARMA eviews
models

16 Testing for causality Handout Testing of causality 3

using VAR between multiple time
series variables

Module 5: Volatility in Financial Time Series

17 Introduction to NSE/BSE. Visualization of 2

Exchange Rate:

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 autoregressive An autoregressive
conditional Example(Chapter conditional
heteroscedasticity 22, Page 797) heteroscedasticity

18 ARCH, GARCH Effect Handout Apply ARCH , GARCH 3

Model

19 EGARCH Effect Handout Apply EGARCH Model 3

20 Wrap up and Query Session

Time budgeting in course planning:

Please note that while assigning activities and planning teaching schedules following table
may be of help. The weightage of items in the table is prescriptive and may vary according to
course requirement. Yet it is indicative of how student time per course can be budgeted:

Time
Activity Description
Budgeted
Classes 2-3 hours per week for 12 weeks 30 hours
Reading Prescribed readings and making notes 10 hours
Preparation of assignments Including shared and group exercises 20 hours
Preparation of project work Reading and writing 20 hours
Study and revision for test and end
Self-preparations 20 hours
of Trimester examination
TOTAL 100 hours

RUBRICS FOR ASSESSMENT

PLO3: Apply relevant conceptual frameworks to business situations: Be able to identify

and apply knowledge of disciplinary or interdisciplinary theory and frameworks to business
situations.
PLO3: Apply relevant conceptual frameworks to business situations.
Competencies Traits/Performance Indicators (PI)
Apply knowledge of disciplinary or 3.1 Gather relevant information about business
interdisciplinary theory and frameworks situations.
to business situations. 3.2 Select and use relevant concepts and
frameworks to business situations.

Rubrics

Rubrics for Individual Viva Based on Group Project (20 marks)

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 Traits Performance level
Gather Select and Poor Average Good
Relevant Use (0-8 marks) (9-14 marks) (15-20 marks)
Informatio Relevant
n Concepts
(Weightage and
= 20%) Framework
s to business
situations.

(Weightage
= 80%)
Understanding of the Student is unable to Student is able to Student is able to
Assumptions in the answers the questions answers the questions systematically examine the
forecasting models and on the relevance and on the relevance and relevance and assumptions
Determining the key assumptions to be assumptions to be to be considered while
parameter of these time considered while considered while applying the given model.
series models applying the given applying the given
model. model. Student exhibits high level
They simply described He knows to interpret of overall understanding
the nature and bunch of the model used and of the assigned problem
business models in its various and applies the concept
general. parameters. after analyzing and
Student exhibits low He /She is unable to interpreting output of the
level of overall explain the time series modeling on
understanding of the applications of the business decisions.
parameters of time applied model on
series model used in business/firm/industr
project. y

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RUBRICS FOR END TERM EXAM. (40 marks)

Traits Poor (0-15) Average (16-30) Good (31 -40)

Gather Relevant Struggles to pinpoint the Clearly identifies the Demonstrates a sophisticated
Information information needed. information required. Gathers understanding analytical
Gathers information information from multiple business forecasting tools.
from one source. valid and reliable sources.
Minimal evidence of Evidence of search/selection Clear evidence of
search/selection criteria. criteria. Able to reflect and search/selection criteria. Able
Unable to forecast the understand the business to reflect and have a holistic
business situation due to situation because of the view of the decision making
poor understanding of appropriate model selection. situation based on robust model
financial and business
models.

Select and Use Has limited knowledge Selects and uses relevant Selects and uses relevant
Relevant Concepts on selecting and concepts and analytical concepts and analytical models.
and Frameworks applying relevant models. Interprets the Interprets the outcome of the
analytical models. outcome of the model. model and explain its
Requires extensive significance in taking business
assistance in selecting decisions for the future.
relevant concepts and
models

Institute’s Policy Statements

The student is required to have a clear comprehension of the specific details included in this
document. This course requires a significant commitment in and outside classroom. The
learning tasks in this course include class discussions, exercises & problems and self-study. In
addition, students are required to complete the various assignments/projects.

LMS-Moodle/Impartus

LMS-Moodle/Impartus is used to host course resources for all courses. Students can
download lecture, additional reading materials, and tutorial notes to support class
participation.

Late Submission
Assessment tasks submitted after the due date, without prior approval/arrangement, will be
not be accepted. Requests for extension of time must be made with the faculty member
concerned and based on Special Consideration guidelines.

Plagiarism
Plagiarism is looked at as the presentation of the expressed thought or work of another person
as though it is one's own without properly acknowledging that person.
Cases of plagiarism will be dealt with according to Plagiarism Policy of the institute. It is
advisable that students should read Section of Student Handbook for detailed guidelines. It is
also advisable that students must not allow other students to copy their work and must take
care to safeguard against this happening. In cases of copying, normally all students involved

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will be penalized equally; an exception can be made if a student can demonstrate the work as
their own and reasonable care was exercised to safeguard against copying.

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