Use mechanical method

-120000 80000

0.5 Try electronic method

Awarded contract
2 -50000 90000
250000 90000

Prepare proposal
Try magnetic method
-50000 20000
-80000 84000

1 0.5
20000 Not awarded contract

0 -50000

Do not prepare proposal

0 0
anical method
80000

0.5
Electronic success
150000
nic method 0 150000

0.5
Electronic failure
30000
-120000 30000

0.7
Magnetic success
120000
0 120000

0.3
Magnetic failure
0
-120000 0

-50000

0
ID Name
0 TreePlan
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
Value Prob Pred Kind NS S1 S2
0 0 0 D 2 1 2
0 0 E 2 3 4
0 0 T 0 0 0
1 D 3 5 6
1 T 0 0 0
0 3 T 0 0 0
0 3 E 2 8 9
0 3 E 2 10 11
6 T 0 0 0
6 T 0 0 0
7 T 0 0 0
7 T 0 0 0
S3 S4 S5 Row Col Mark
0 0 0 25 1 1
0 0 0 18 5 1
0 0 0 32 5 1
7 0 0 10 9 1
0 0 0 27 9 1
0 0 0 2 13 1
0 0 0 9 13 1
0 0 0 19 13 1
0 0 0 7 17 1
0 0 0 12 17 1
0 0 0 17 17 1
0 0 0 22 17 1
 Use mechanical method

-$120,000 $80,000

0.5 Try electronic method

Awarded contract
2 -$50,000 $90,000
$250,000 $90,000

Prepare proposal
Try magnetic method
-$50,000 $20,000
-$80,000 $84,000

1 0.5
$20,000 Not awarded contract

$0 -$50,000

Do not prepare proposal

$0 $0
anical method
$80,000

0.5
Electronic success
$150,000
nic method $0 $150,000

0.5
Electronic failure
$30,000
-$120,000 $30,000

0.7
Magnetic success
$120,000
$0 $120,000

0.3
Magnetic failure
$0
-$120,000 $0

-$50,000

$0
ID Name
0 TreePlan
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
Value Prob Pred Kind NS S1 S2
0 0 0 D 2 1 2
0 0 E 2 3 4
0 0 T 0 0 0
1 D 3 5 6
1 T 0 0 0
0 3 T 0 0 0
0 3 E 2 8 9
0 3 E 2 10 11
6 T 0 0 0
6 T 0 0 0
7 T 0 0 0
7 T 0 0 0
S3 S4 S5 Row Col Mark
0 0 0 25 1 1
0 0 0 18 5 1
0 0 0 32 5 1
7 0 0 10 9 1
0 0 0 27 9 1
0 0 0 2 13 1
0 0 0 9 13 1
0 0 0 19 13 1
0 0 0 7 17 1
0 0 0 12 17 1
0 0 0 17 17 1
0 0 0 22 17 1
 Use mechanical method

-$120,000

0.5 Try electronic method

Awarded contract
2 -$50,000
$250,000

Prepare proposal
Try magnetic method
-$50,000
-$80,000

1 0.5
Not awarded contract

$0

Do not prepare proposal

$0
anical method
$80,000

0.5
Electronic success
$150,000
nic method $0

0.5
Electronic failure Use mechanical method
1 $30,000
$0 -$120,000

0.7
Magnetic success
$120,000
$0

0.3
Magnetic failure Use mechanical method
1 $0
$0 -$120,000

-$50,000

$0
ID Name Value Prob
0 TreePlan 0 0
1 0
2 0
3
4
5 0
6 0
7 0
8
9
10
11
12 0
13 0
Pred Kind NS S1 S2 S3 S4
0 D 2 1 2 0 0
0 E 2 3 4 0 0
0 T 0 0 0 0 0
1 D 3 5 6 7 0
1 T 0 0 0 0 0
3 T 0 0 0 0 0
3 E 2 8 9 0 0
3 E 2 10 11 0 0
6 T 0 0 0 0 0
6 D 1 12 0 0 0
7 T 0 0 0 0 0
7 D 1 13 0 0 0
9 T 0 0 0 0 0
11 T 0 0 0 0 0
S5 Row Col Mark
0 25 1 1
0 18 5 1
0 32 5 1
0 10 9 1
0 27 9 1
0 2 13 1
0 9 13 1
0 19 13 1
0 7 17 1
0 12 17 1
0 17 17 1
0 22 17 1
0 12 21 1
0 22 21 1
 Use mechanical method

-$120,000 $80,000
0.41335

0.5 Try electronic method

Awarded contract
1 -$50,000 $78,307
$250,000 $80,000 0.40669
0.41335

Prepare proposal
Try magnetic method
-$50,000 $1,337
0.00887 -$80,000 $73,035
0.38547

1 0.5
$1,337 Not awarded contract
0.00887
$0 -$50,000
-0.39561

Do not prepare proposal

$0 $0
0.00000
 Label in cell on left is the
anical method defined name of cell on right.
$80,000
RT $150,000

0.5
Electronic success
$150,000
nic method $0 $150,000
0.63212
0.5
Electronic failure
$30,000
-$120,000 $30,000
0.18127
0.7
Magnetic success
$120,000
$0 $120,000
0.55067
0.3
Magnetic failure
$0
-$120,000 $0
0.00000

-$50,000

$0
ID Name
0 TreePlan
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
Value Prob Pred Kind NS S1 S2
0 0 0 D 2 1 2
0 0 E 2 3 4
0 0 T 0 0 0
1 D 3 5 6
1 T 0 0 0
0 3 T 0 0 0
0 3 E 2 8 9
0 3 E 2 10 11
6 T 0 0 0
6 T 0 0 0
7 T 0 0 0
7 T 0 0 0
S3 S4 S5 Row Col Mark
0 0 0 25 1 1
0 0 0 18 5 1
0 0 0 32 5 1
7 0 0 10 9 1
0 0 0 27 9 1
0 0 0 2 13 1
0 0 0 9 13 1
0 0 0 19 13 1
0 0 0 7 17 1
0 0 0 12 17 1
0 0 0 17 17 1
0 0 0 22 17 1
 Use mechanical method

-$120,000 $80,000
0.78714

0.5 Try electronic method

Awarded contract
1 -$50,000 $78,307
$250,000 $80,000 0.78066
0.78714

Prepare proposal
Try magnetic method
-$50,000 $1,337
0.39357 -$80,000 $73,035
0.76000

1 0.5
$1,337 Not awarded contract
0.39357
$0 -$50,000
0.00000

Do not prepare proposal

$0 $0
0.38494
 Label in cell on left is the
anical method defined name of cell on right.
$80,000
RT $150,000

0.5 Low -$50,000

Electronic success High $150,000
$150,000
nic method $0 $150,000 A 1.35795235
1.00000 B 0.97301538
0.5
Electronic failure
$30,000
-$120,000 $30,000
0.56131
0.7
Magnetic success
$120,000
$0 $120,000
0.92075
0.3
Magnetic failure
$0
-$120,000 $0
0.38494

-$50,000

$0
 Value Risk Utility
-$50,000 0.00000

Utility or Expected Utility, U(x)

-$45,000 0.04452
-$40,000 0.08758 DriveTe
-$35,000 0.12923
1.0
U(Low) = 0.0 -$30,000 0.16951
U(High) = 1.0 -$25,000 0.20847
-$20,000 0.24616 0.9
-$15,000 0.28260
-$10,000 0.31786 0.8
-$5,000 0.35196
$0 0.38494 0.7
$5,000 0.41684
$10,000 0.44769
0.6
$15,000 0.47753
$20,000 0.50640
$25,000 0.53431 0.5
$30,000 0.56131
$35,000 0.58743 0.4
$40,000 0.61269
$45,000 0.63712
0.3
$50,000 0.66076
$55,000 0.68361
$60,000 0.70572 0.2
$65,000 0.72710
$70,000 0.74779 0.1
$75,000 0.76779
$80,000 0.78714
0.0
$85,000 0.80585 -$50,000 $0
$90,000 0.82395 Valu
$95,000 0.84146
$100,000 0.85839
$105,000 0.87477
$110,000 0.89061
$115,000 0.90593
$120,000 0.92075
$125,000 0.93508
$130,000 0.94894
$135,000 0.96235
$140,000 0.97532
$145,000 0.98787
$150,000 1.00000
 DriveTek Risk Utility Function

$0 $50,000 $100,000 $150,000

Value or Certain Equivalent, x
ID Name
0 TreePlan
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
Value Prob Pred Kind NS S1 S2
0 0 0 D 2 1 2
0 0 E 2 3 4
0 0 T 0 0 0
1 D 3 5 6
1 T 0 0 0
0 3 T 0 0 0
0 3 E 2 8 9
0 3 E 2 10 11
6 T 0 0 0
6 T 0 0 0
7 T 0 0 0
7 T 0 0 0
S3 S4 S5 Row Col Mark
0 0 0 25 1 1
0 0 0 18 5 1
0 0 0 32 5 1
7 0 0 10 9 1
0 0 0 27 9 1
0 0 0 2 13 1
0 0 0 9 13 1
0 0 0 19 13 1
0 0 0 7 17 1
0 0 0 12 17 1
0 0 0 17 17 1
0 0 0 22 17 1