Distribution Load Forecast Program

Distribution Load Forecast Program
Power Analytics Corporation

10805 Rancho Bernardo Road, Suite 270
San Diego, California 92127
U.S.A.
U.S. Toll Free Phone: 800-362-0603
Fax: 858-675-9724
www.PowerAnalytics.com
©Copyright Power Analytics Corporation 2012

All rights reserved
Version 3.20.00 May 2008

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TABLE OF CONTENTS
1. Introduction ........................................................................................................................ 1
2. Basic Principles of Load Forecasting ............................................................................. 3

2.1 Multi-Regression .......................................................................................................................... 3
2.2 Successive Multi-Regression ................................................................................................... 4
2.3 Coupling Multi-Regression ........................................................................................................ 4
2.4 Stochastic Time Series Technique .......................................................................................... 4
3. Functions of the Program ................................................................................................. 5
4. Notes for Input ................................................................................................................... 7
5. Notes for Output ................................................................................................................ 7
6. How to Create a Load Forecast Job File ......................................................................... 7

6.1 General Steps ................................................................................................................................ 7
6.2 Important Notes .......................................................................................................................... 14
6.2 File Commands ........................................................................................................................... 15
6.3 View Commands......................................................................................................................... 17
6.4 Calculate Command .................................................................................................................. 23
6.5 Windows Commands ................................................................................................................ 23
6.6 Help Commands ......................................................................................................................... 25
6.7 Toolbar Commands ................................................................................................................... 26
6.8 Error Message List ..................................................................................................................... 26
7. Examples of Load Forecasting ...................................................................................... 27

7.1 Example 1 ..................................................................................................................................... 27
7.2 Example 2 ..................................................................................................................................... 34
8.3 Example 3 ..................................................................................................................................... 40
8.4 Example 4 ..................................................................................................................................... 43
8.5 Example 5 ..................................................................................................................................... 47
ii
GRAPHS & DIAGRAMS

Figure 1 .............................................................................................................................................................. 30
Figure 2 .............................................................................................................................................................. 36
Figure 3 .............................................................................................................................................................. 43
Figure 4 .............................................................................................................................................................. 45
Figure 5 .............................................................................................................................................................. 48
TABLES
Table 1: Forecasted Results and Actual Loads for 1996 .......................................................................33

Table 2: Forecasted Results and Actual Energy For 1996 ....................................................................39
Note: You can view this manual on your CD as an Adobe Acrobat PDF file. The file name is:
 Distribution Load Forecast LoadForecast.pdf
You will find the Test/Job files used in this tutorial in the following location:
 C:\Paladin\Samples\Ldfrcast = Load Forecast
Test Files: Exam1, Exam2, Exam3, Exam4A, Exam4B, Exam5A, Exam5B

RHH00, RHH01, RHH02, RHH03, RHH04, RHH05, RHH06, RHHEC
iii
1. Introduction
The task of distribution system planning involves determining sizes, locations and timing of future
changes, such as additions of system components (substations, lines, feeders, etc.). Planning of
distribution systems requires forecast of the future load demands in terms of these components.
The quality and accuracy of system planning depends on the quality and accuracy of the data and
load forecast.
Geographic location of loads is analyzed using a small area forecasting approach, which divides
the utility service area into a number of small areas and forecasts the load in each one, thus
determining where and how much load there will be. There are two methods to divide a system
into small areas:
(1) Forecasting carried out in terms of feeders, substations, or zones defined by

distribution components; or
(2) Forecasting carried out in terms of a uniform grid, based on a mapping

coordinate system.
Each method of small area definition has advantages and disadvantages. The grid-based
methodology requires considerable input data, including not only historical load records in each
grid block, but also economic, social, demographic and land-use information, to provide accurate
results. For most utilities, it is difficult to make these data available. The Power Analytics
DesignBase distribution load forecast program uses the first method (i.e. dividing the utility service
area into feeders, substations, or zones, defined by equipment). The major merit of this
methodology is that it requires only historical load data for a few years, which are readily available
to any utility. The load increase or decrease limit should be evaluated with regard to other
important elements, such as availability of land, water, as well as social and economical factors,
that could impact the load forecast trend.
The most popular approach to distribution component forecasting is multi-variable regression.

The conventional multi-regression method often leads to inaccuracy in many cases. In order to
provide users with flexibility and more accurate forecasting, this program uses the following three
techniques:
(1) Successive Multi-Regression. Compared to the conventional multi-regression,

this technique can automatically identify important regression variables and avoid the
possible ill-conditions of the normal equation.
(2) Coupling Multi-Regression. Load transfers may occur between substations or

feeders, and can contaminate trending in historical load data. This technique can
automatically eliminate the effects on historical data of load transfers between
substations or feeders, and, therefore, increases accuracy in forecasting.
(3) Stochastic Time Series. In many cases, this technique can provide more
accurate results than the multi-regression methods. In particular, this
technique can conduct not only yearly, but also monthly, load forecasting.
It is important to appreciate that some differences always exist between the forecast and reality,
no matter which method is used. The multi-regression method may be better for some types of
historical data, while the time series technique is better for others. It is, therefore, suggested to
use both and compare the results whenever possible. Forecasting accuracy is a statistical
1
concept. In other words, a high average of accuracy in load forecasting for sets of distribution
components (substations, feeders or zones) and many points of time (years or months), does not
necessarily mean a small error for every component and every time period (for example each
year) to be forecasted.
2
2. Basic Principles of Load Forecasting
2.1 Multi-Regression
The multi-regression technique is based on curve fitting to historical load data for each distribution
component (small area).
The following polynomial is a typical curve to fit:

2 3 -1 -2 -3
Li (t) = b0 + b1 t + b2 t + b3 t + b4 t + b5 t + b6 t (1)
where
L i  t  - estimate of load for component i for year t
t - Year No.
Substituting x1  t , x2  t 2 , x 3  t 3 , x 4  t 1 , x5  t 2 , x 6  t 3 , Equation (1) becomes
Li (t) = b0 + b1 x1 + b2 x2 + b3 x3 + b4 x4 + b5 x5 + b6 x6 (2)
 
Assuming that N sets of values for x1 , x 2 , x 3 , x 4 , x5 , x 6 , L i  t  corresponding to N year of historical load
records are expressed by:
x k1 , x k2 , x k3 , x k4 , x k5 , x k6 , y k  (k=1,2,....N}
Applying the least square error estimate method, the following normal equations can be obtained:
S 11 b1 + S 12 b2 + .... + S 16 b6 = S 1y
S 21 b1 + S 22 b2 + .... + S 26 b6 = S 2y
(3)
............
S 61 b1 + S 62 b2 + .... + S 66 b6 + S 6y
The coefficients b 0 , b1 , b 2 , b 3 , b 4 , b5 , b 6  can be obtained by solving Equation (3). Once the b coefficients
are obtained, load forecasting can be conducted by substituting the number of years to be forecasted into
Equation (1). Large inaccuracy may occur in some cases, because of the difference between the historical
data trending and future development trending. Horizon year load estimates can stabilize trending to an
extent where even mediocre estimates are worth using. The horizon year estimates add a load estimate at the
horizon year, which is treated in the same way as a historical load in the above multi-regression
calculations.
3
2.2 Successive Multi-Regression
The main disadvantages of the conventional multi-regression method are: (a) The normal
equation may become ill-conditioned in some cases, and (b) it cannot identify important
regression variables. Both of these items can lead to large inaccuracies in calculations.
The successive multi-regression method used in the program includes the following
improvements:
(1) Correlation coefficients rij are used to replace the S ij in Equation (3) leading to a
high accuracy in resolution. rij is defined as:
sij
r ij = (4)
sii s jj
(2) Successive multi-regression is conducted by selecting important variables in an

iterative procedure. Significant variables are introduced in the regression and
insignificant ones excluded.
(3) Importance of variables is examined using the significance t-test.
2.3 Coupling Multi-Regression
The historical load data may have been contaminated due to the switching of loads between two
substations or feeders. A load may be transferred from one substation or feeder to another for
some reason. For example, a load may be transferred during construction or in the case where a
planned new or larger transformer is delayed.
The coupling multi-regression technique is used to eliminate the effects of load transfers between
two substations or feeders. A weighting least square error method is applied to replace the
conventional least square error approach. The same weighting is put on the square error terms
corresponding to years where load transfers take place between the two substations or feeders.
This technique does not require the magnitude and direction of load transfers as input data.
Additional required data are only with regard to which year(s) a load transfer took place.
2.4 Stochastic Time Series Technique
This technique includes the following:
(1) Historical load data can be viewed as a discrete time series that is not stationary and
contains a growth trending (for yearly load records) or periodic variations (for monthly
load records). The growth trending and periodic variation can be filtered by using a
forward differencing technique to obtain a stationary time series.
(2) Given a stationary time series:
x1 , x 2 , x 3 , x 4 ,...... x N
4
the following linear model can apply:

* * * *
x t = p1 x t -1 + p2 x t -2 + .... + pm x t -m + at (5)
where:
xt = xt - 
*
(6)
 is the mean of the time series x i  and a t is a noise term.
The p i in equation (5) are called partial auto-correlation coefficients and can be estimated by using
the Yule-Walker equation:
p1 + r 1 p2 + r 2 p3 + .... + r m-1 p m = r 1
r 1 p1 + p2 + r 1 P3 + .... + r m-2 p m = r 2
(7)
..............................
r m-1 p1 + r m-2 p2 + r m-3 p3 + ....+ p m = r m
where ri are called auto-correlation coefficients and can be estimated using the equations:
N
1
x =
N
 xt
t=1
N -k
1
ck =
N
 ( x t - x )( x t+k - x )
t=1
(8)
r k = c k / c0
(k = 0,1,2,...,m;m » N)
(3) After p i are calculated using Equation (7), the forecasting can be conducted by the forecast
equation:
* * *
x N+L = p1 x N+L-1 + ..... pm x N+L-m (9)
The forecasted results from Equation (9) are those corresponding to the stationary time
series. Forecasting for the original discrete load time series can be obtained by using a
backward differencing technique.
3. Functions of the Program
5
The program provides users with the following functional options:
(a) Choose forecasting method:
1. Multi-regression with horizon estimate

2. Stochastic time series technique
(b) Choose object for forecast:
1. Zone(s)
2. Substation(s)
3. Feeder(s)
4. Two substations with load transfer
5. Two feeders with load transfer
Note: If the object is zone(s), substation(s) or feeder(s), either of the two methods
can be chosen. If the object is two substations or feeders with a load
transfer, only the multi-regression method can be used, and this is
automatically carried out by the program.
(c) Choose quantity for forecast:
1. KW
2. KVA
3. MWh
(d) Choose forecasting type:
1. Yearly forecast
2. Monthly forecast
Note: If yearly forecast is selected, either of the two methods can be chosen. If
monthly forecast is selected, only the time series method can be used, and
this is automatically carried out by the program.
6
4. Notes for Input
(1) Users should input basic historical load data, including year number (i.e. 1990), for yearly forecasting,
or year-month number (i.e. 1990.04), for monthly forecasting and load records. At least five years
of load records are required for yearly forecasting, and, in the case of monthly
forecasting, at least 36 months of load records are required, and the number of the
load records should be a multiple of 12. There is no limit to the number of historical load
records that can be entered. However, extensive amounts of past history is not suggested, because
future load trending is mainly affected by recent load development modes, and much
less by distant past load history.
(2) If the multi-regression method is chosen, horizon year load estimate data are required. The horizon
year should generally be within 3 to 10 years after the last year to be forecasted, and
load estimates at the horizon year may be a reflection of economic, financial or environmental limits on
load growth. If providing horizon year load estimates is difficult, the time series method can be used to
obtain forecasting results first. Then these results can be used as a reference for the horizon estimates.
(3) To conduct load forecasting for two substations or feeders involved in a load transfer,
additional data are required. For the MWh forecasting, information regarding in which year(s)
a load transfer took place is required, and, for KW or KVA forecasting, information regarding
in which years a load transfer only took place in the peak period is required. The program
does not need to input magnitudes nor directions of load transfers.
(4) The maximum number of zones, substations or feeders in a single run is 40. When the
number is more than 40, load forecasting should be done in two or more runs.
5. Notes for Output
(1) There is no limit to the number of years to be forecasted. However, the accuracy of results for
very long term forecasting decreases.
(2) Monthly forecasting only provides results for the 12 months immediately following the last year
of historical data.
6. How to Create a Load Forecast Job File
6.1 General Steps
A new job file can be created using the following steps:
a) Launch the Load Forecast program from the DesignBase2.0/Analysis/Additional Calculation/Load

Forecasting.
7
b) Select the New command from the File menu:
8
c) Enter EXAM1 for new job file name :
d) Click Save button from New Job File dialog box to create entry data view.
9
e) Choose an object (e.g. Substations) from the data entry dialog box as follows:
f) Click the button to set up system:
10
Select the appropriate settings in the Distribution Load Forecasting Configuration dialog box and click
OK to save. This includes:
 Number of object units

 Historical data, length (e.g. from which year to which year)
 Yearly or monthly forecast
 Method
 Quantity
g) The following dialog box will appear for framework:
Enter description information and forecasting length. The years 1989 through 1995 are
automatically entered for historical data. For each year, enter the load history for each unit.
If the multi-regression method is used, enter a horizon year in the “Horizon” block, and load
estimates for each unit in the block at the bottom right corner of the dialog box.
11
h) Input data for all fields:
There are twenty substations in the job file shown above, and the historical data are for the
seven years from 1989 to 1995. The forecasting length is ten years. The horizon year is 2012.
12
If an object of “2 Feeders with LT” or “2 Substations with LT” is chosen, specify the year(s) (at
least one year) in which a load transfer took place by clicking in the “load transfer” block located
in the bottom left corner of the dialog box, as shown below:
13
6.2 Important Notes
1. After settings are entered in the Distribution Load Forecasting Configuration dialog box, and the
OK button is clicked, options of objects can no longer be changed from the data entry dialog box. To
make changes to objects, the From or To year field must be cleared in the Configuration dialog box.
2. If the From or To year field is cleared, all historical data in the data entry view will also be
cleared, and must be re-entered.
3. After the historical data have been entered, caution must be used when changing
from the “Yearly” to the “Monthly” option, or vice versa. The data for yearly forecasting are
of a completely different nature, and limits different from the monthly forecasting are used.
Therefore, such changes may lead to lost or damaged data.
4. How to Run the Load Forecast Program
After starting the program, either create a new job file, by selecting the File/New command, or
open an existing job file, by selecting the File/Open command.
Creating or opening a file opens the dialog box shown below, which contains the settings for data
entry. This view will be blank when creating a new file.
Results of the Load Forecast computations are generated by clicking the Run or Calculate
command, and may be viewed by selecting the View/Report or View/Output Results command.
All referenced commands will be described in the following page.
14
6.2 File Commands
The following list provides an overview of commands from the File menu:
New The File/New command displays the New Job File dialog box, and
creates a blank view of the file.
Open The File/Open command displays the Open Job File dialog box for
selection of an existing LFC job file. The default directory for opening
existing files is defined in the Job Files section of the DesignBase
Directories and Packages dialog box, which is accessed using the
Options/Directories and Packages command.
Close The File/Close command checks for unsaved changes to the active job
file. If there are unsaved changes, the user is prompted to save or
discard the changes, and all dialog boxes for the file are closed.
Save The File/Save command saves the open job file. If the file is unnamed,
the File/Save As dialog box is displayed for entry of the file name and
indication of where the file is to be saved.
Save As The File/Save As command allows a file to be saved under a new

name, or in a new location. The command displays the File/Save As
dialog box for entry of the new file name and/or location, including the
drive and directory. All dialog boxes containing this file are updated with
the new name. If an existing file name is chosen, verification that the
existing file is to be overwritten is requested.
Exit The File/Exit command closes the Distribution Load Forecast program.
If there are unsaved changes to the job file, the user is prompted to
save or discard the changes, or cancel the Exit command.
15
The File\Open\Samples\LdFrcast\Exam1 command opens the following data entry dialog box:
Click the Run button or select the Calculate command to calculate the Load Forecasting results.
Click the Error Info button to check for valid data entry and successful computation.
16
6.3 View Commands
Users can select Input Data, Output Results, Graph or Report from View menu at any time:
If a view is already open, the command will be marked with a check symbol (i.e. Input Data).
17
View/Input Data
The View/Input Data command opens the following Input Data dialog box. Select either
Summary or Loading to display different input data. Click the Refresh button to view any
changes to the input data. Click the Close button to close this view.
18
View/Output Results
The View/Output Results command opens the following results dialog box. Click the Refresh
button to re-calculate and view new results for changes in input data. Click the Close button to
close this view.
19
View/Graph
The View/Graph command opens the following graph dialog box:
20
In this view which curves are displayed can be determined by selecting the desired curves and clicking the Sel
button on right-toolbar. A hard copy of the graph can be printed using the Output menu. Select View/Display or
click the Display icon to display right-toolbar if it has been closed.
View/Reports
21
The View/Reports command formats the input data and results into the report shown below:
22
6.4 Calculate Command
After the data entry for all settings has been completed, selecting the Calculate command, or
clicking the Run button in the data entry dialog box, obtains the Load Forecast results.
6.5 Windows Commands
23
The Windows commands provide control over the arrangement of the calculation dialog boxes
within the application window area.
Arrange Icons The Window/Arrange Icons aligns the icons for any minimized
windows (see System Menu) in a row at the bottom left hand side of
the application window area.
Close All The Window/Close All command closes all dialog boxes. This is
equivalent to selecting the File/Close command.
1 (etc.) Each open dialog box will have an entry in the Window menu.
Selecting one of these entries will display that dialog box in the
application area.
24
6.6 Help Commands
Help commands provide access to on-line information designed to assist the user of the
Distribution Load Forecasting program.
Contents Displays the master table of contents for the Help system.
Using Help Displays general information about how to use the Help system.
About Displays information about the program, including version ID and

copyright notice.
25
6.7 Toolbar Commands
When the mouse is used to move the cursor to an icon on the toolbar, the command text label is
displayed under the icon.
New File
Open File
Input
Run Job File
Graph
Report
Help
6.8 Error Message List
The following error code can be used to check status of run-time:
CODE 1: Not enough historical zones or substations
CODE 2: At least 5 historical years needed
CODE 3: At least 36 (3x12) historical months needed
CODE 4: When monthly type is chosen, the number of historical load records should be a
multiple of 12
CODE 5: Horizon year should be within 3 to 10 years after the last year forecasted
CODE 6: Load transfer year(s) is not specified in input file data
CODE 7: Invalid data load in unit XX and at year XX (the unit and year number are from the error
struct)
CODE 8: Memory allocation error
26
7. Examples of Load Forecasting
7.1 Example 1
This example shows the yearly KW load forecasting of 20 substations for the 10 years from 1996
to 2005. The historical KW load data for the 7 years from 1989 to 1995 are given as input.
(1) Output using the stochastic time series technique:
DesignBase Distribution Load Forecasting Analysis V3.10.00

Job File Name: C:\DesignBase2\Samples\LdFrcast\EXAM1.LFC
Date and Time: 12/01/08 10:48:55 am
Checked by : Date:
Description : Distribution Load Forecasting Analysis

Exam1
Object for forecast Substation(s)
The number of substation(s) 20

Quantity for forecast KW
Forecasting type Yearly forecast

The number of years to forecast 10
Forecasting method Stochastic time series technique
HISTORICAL LOAD DATA (KW )

---------------------------------------------------------
YEAR Subst1 Subst2 Subst3 Subst4 Subst5
---------------------------------------------------------
1989 2665 11620 6640 2393 5790
1990 2797 11830 6493 2851 6591
1991 2552 12718 7480 2491 7001
1992 2967 12728 8085 2930 8710
1993 2816 13327 9257 2763 8730
1994 2844 12937 10136 2265 8808
1995 3260 12538 11044 2168 8906
---------------------------------------------------------

---------------------------------------------------------
---------------------------------------------------------
1989 4848 803 6812 5367 6955
1990 5255 841 7156 5466 7419
1991 4828 841 7434 5995 6955
1992 5072 945 7979 5646 7535
1993 4655 813 7769 5726 8694
1994 4981 718 8026 5935 8694
1995 4818 662 8026 5935 8578
---------------------------------------------------------
27
---------------------------------------------------------
---------------------------------------------------------
1989 11494 2334 1297 4074 14184
1990 12097 2434 1168 4336 14943
1991 12087 2414 1317 4616 15940
1992 13109 2305 1217 4486 16429
1993 11896 2334 1297 4729 16489
1994 12957 2385 1397 4747 16569
1995 12679 2424 1406 5457 16419
---------------------------------------------------------

---------------------------------------------------------
---------------------------------------------------------
1989 680 15517 10802 4090 2484
1990 727 16933 11281 4120 2733
1991 680 17138 12139 4150 3202
1992 727 18115 12569 4110 3062
1993 577 16943 12648 4289 3032
1994 624 17850 12868 4260 3022
1995 558 17372 12758 4280 3142
---------------------------------------------------------
LOAD FORECAST RESULTS (KW )

---------------------------------------------------------
---------------------------------------------------------
1996 3179 12601 11671 2175 9491
1997 3244 12652 12323 2125 9996
1998 3477 13104 12938 2090 10518
1999 3487 13466 13655 2052 11037
2000 3580 13709 14404 2015 11556
2001 3737 13858 15191 1977 12075
2002 3792 13870 15958 1940 12595
2003 3893 13926 16705 1902 13114
2004 4016 14031 17426 1865 13633
2005 4095 14205 18142 1827 14153
---------------------------------------------------------

---------------------------------------------------------
---------------------------------------------------------
1996 4858 638 8290 6059 8962
1997 4946 615 8520 6208 9497
1998 4753 592 8773 6262 9707
1999 4946 568 9009 6350 9804
2000 4771 545 9197 6461 10103
2001 4873 521 9390 6547 10488
2002 4845 498 9569 6641 10746
2003 4793 474 9768 6742 10942
2004 4881 451 9970 6833 11216
2005 4767 427 10180 6926 11535
---------------------------------------------------------

---------------------------------------------------------
---------------------------------------------------------
28
1996 12968 2440 1438 5610 16736
1997 13252 2455 1457 5970 17412
1998 13341 2470 1462 6011 18107
1999 13603 2485 1491 6208 18600
2000 13783 2500 1504 6428 18809
2001 13973 2515 1521 6700 18922
2002 14183 2530 1544 6986 19169
2003 14372 2545 1557 7204 19620
2004 14573 2560 1578 7427 20178
2005 14771 2575 1596 7625 20674
---------------------------------------------------------

---------------------------------------------------------
---------------------------------------------------------
1996 571 18321 13033 4315 3252
1997 526 18422 13524 4346 3362
1998 524 18986 14010 4360 3471
1999 490 19241 14509 4421 3581
2000 480 19488 14804 4445 3691
2001 452 19837 15000 4474 3800
2002 438 20031 15217 4506 3910
2003 413 20442 15492 4537 4020
2004 396 20675 15874 4564 4129
2005 373 21063 16288 4602 4239
---------------------------------------------------------
29
Graphical output (Substation 1, 3 and 10):
Figure 1
(2) The outputs using the multi-regression technique:

Date and Time: 12/01/08 10:52:07 am

Checked by : Date:

Exam1


Forecasting method Multi-regression with horizon estimate
30

---------------------------------------------------------
---------------------------------------------------------
1989 2665 11620 6640 2393 5790
1990 2797 11830 6493 2851 6591
1991 2552 12718 7480 2491 7001
1992 2967 12728 8085 2930 8710
1993 2816 13327 9257 2763 8730
1994 2844 12937 10136 2265 8808
1995 3260 12538 11044 2168 8906
---------------------------------------------------------
Horizon estimates:
2012 5000 14000 22500 1400 15000
---------------------------------------------------------

---------------------------------------------------------
---------------------------------------------------------
1989 4848 803 6812 5367 6955
1990 5255 841 7156 5466 7419
1991 4828 841 7434 5995 6955
1992 5072 945 7979 5646 7535
1993 4655 813 7769 5726 8694
1994 4981 718 8026 5935 8694
1995 4818 662 8026 5935 8578
---------------------------------------------------------
Horizon estimates:
2012 5300 500 11500 7100 11500
---------------------------------------------------------

---------------------------------------------------------
---------------------------------------------------------
1989 11494 2334 1297 4074 14184
1990 12097 2434 1168 4336 14943
1991 12087 2414 1317 4616 15940
1992 13109 2305 1217 4486 16429
1993 11896 2334 1297 4729 16489
1994 12957 2385 1397 4747 16569
1995 12679 2424 1406 5457 16419
---------------------------------------------------------
Horizon estimates:
2012 14000 2600 1700 7100 20500
---------------------------------------------------------

---------------------------------------------------------
---------------------------------------------------------
1989 680 15517 10802 4090 2484
1990 727 16933 11281 4120 2733
1991 680 17138 12139 4150 3202
1992 727 18115 12569 4110 3062
1993 577 16943 12648 4289 3032
1994 624 17850 12868 4260 3022
1995 558 17372 12758 4280 3142
---------------------------------------------------------
Horizon estimates:
2012 190 18500 17500 5200 4800
---------------------------------------------------------
31

---------------------------------------------------------
---------------------------------------------------------
1996 3271 12959 11269 2321 9559
1997 3376 12997 11978 2264 9915
1998 3482 13033 12688 2206 10266
1999 3588 13071 13397 2149 10614
2000 3693 13110 14107 2091 10959
2001 3799 13152 14816 2034 11301
2002 3904 13198 15526 1977 11642
2003 4010 13249 16235 1919 11982
2004 4115 13304 16945 1862 12320
2005 4221 13365 17654 1804 12658
---------------------------------------------------------

---------------------------------------------------------
---------------------------------------------------------
1996 4934 742 8381 6001 9100
1997 4940 726 8577 6071 9390
1998 4947 710 8773 6141 9668
1999 4956 694 8968 6211 9932
2000 4967 678 9164 6281 10181
2001 4980 662 9360 6351 10414
2002 4995 646 9555 6421 10629
2003 5012 630 9751 6491 10824
2004 5031 614 9947 6561 11000
2005 5054 599 10142 6631 11153
---------------------------------------------------------

---------------------------------------------------------
---------------------------------------------------------
1996 12676 2393 1381 5134 17093
1997 12767 2400 1401 5262 17317
1998 12857 2408 1422 5390 17538
1999 12948 2416 1442 5517 17754
2000 13039 2426 1463 5645 17968
2001 13129 2436 1483 5772 18180
2002 13220 2447 1504 5900 18390
2003 13311 2459 1525 6027 18599
2004 13402 2471 1545 6155 18807
2005 13492 2484 1566 6283 19015
---------------------------------------------------------

---------------------------------------------------------
---------------------------------------------------------
1996 561 17842 13400 4336 3322
1997 537 17879 13662 4378 3414
1998 514 17909 13922 4422 3506
1999 491 17933 14179 4468 3598
2000 468 17953 14436 4515 3689
2001 444 17970 14691 4563 3781
2002 421 17985 14945 4613 3873
2003 398 17998 15198 4665 3965
2004 375 18009 15451 4718 4056
2005 351 18019 15703 4773 4148
---------------------------------------------------------
32
(3) Comments on the results:
(a) The comparisons between the results obtained using the two forecasting techniques
and the actual loads for the 20 substations for 1996 are summarized in Table 1.
Table 1: Forecasted Results and Actual Loads for 1996
-------------------------------------------------------------
Subst. Actual Load Time Series Multi-regression
(KW) (KW) Diff(%) (KW) Diff(%)
-------------------------------------------------------------
Subst1 3387 3179 6.1 3271 3.4
Subst2 12628 12601 0.2 12959 2.6
Subst3 11942 11671 2.3 11269 5.6
Subst4 2090 2175 4.0 2321 11.0
Subst5 9287 9491 2.2 9559 2.9
Subst6 5052 4858 3.8 4934 2.3
Subst7 699 638 8.7 742 6.2
Subst8 8408 8290 1.4 8381 0.3
Subst9 6154 6059 1.5 6001 2.5
Subst10 8462 8962 5.3 9100 7.5
Subst11 12460 12968 4.1 12676 1.7
Subst12 2434 2440 0.2 2393 1.7
Subst13 1446 1438 0.6 1381 4.5
Subst14 5074 5610 10.6 5134 1.2
Subst15 16409 16736 2.0 17093 4.2
Subst16 529 571 7.9 561 6.0
Subst17 16913 18321 8.3 17842 5.5
Subst18 13256 13033 1.7 13400 1.2
Subst19 4529 4315 4.7 4336 4.3
Subst20 3281 3252 0.9 3322 1.2
-------------------------------------------------------------
(b) Most of the substation loads have growth trending in the 10 year forecasting.
However, there are three substations (4, 7 and 16) whose loads show a decreasing
trend, and one substation (6) has a flat load trending.
33
7.2 Example 2
This example shows the yearly MWh forecasting of 12 zones for the 10 years from 1996 to 2005.
The historical MWh data for the 9 years from 1987 to 1995 are given as input.
(1) Output using the stochastic time series technique:

Date and Time: 12/01/08 10:55:40 am
Checked by : Date:

Exam2
Object for forecast Zone(s)

The number of zone(s) 12
Quantity for forecast MWH

HISTORICAL LOAD DATA (MWH)

---------------------------------------------------------
YEAR Zone1 Zone2 Zone3 Zone4 Zone5
---------------------------------------------------------
1987 294506 290683 267413 276172 277451
1988 305593 300692 281094 288187 289619
1989 314295 305455 298933 308691 308846
1990 331716 323125 312756 315694 321066
1991 342241 339580 323798 327851 331254
1992 348124 348267 330527 342438 354867
1993 362866 345667 332093 341483 350259
1994 366501 359639 305590 306636 348217
1995 373423 356855 337982 348050 353114
---------------------------------------------------------

---------------------------------------------------------
---------------------------------------------------------
1987 277460 318748 361148 368493 353941
1988 282605 306248 334913 357970 373114
1989 303292 331336 350180 385287 398496
1990 316370 344706 368167 393012 408925
1991 318654 352782 379443 406913 429139
1992 336934 389405 406038 456518 456706
1993 328408 377817 400842 416845 436362
1994 339999 385065 408059 459017 481492
1995 351021 372767 426833 448452 432564
---------------------------------------------------------
34

---------------------------------------------------------
YEAR Zone11 Zone12
---------------------------------------------------------
1987 321945 319706
1988 326156 351066
1989 368854 377184
1990 386381 390208
1991 392742 393532
1992 373208 408273
1993 396705 387546
1994 405072 417678
1995 405650 401560
---------------------------------------------------------
LOAD FORECAST RESULTS (MWH)

---------------------------------------------------------
---------------------------------------------------------
1996 384910 367427 344822 361354 362205
1997 394738 375045 351756 366664 371290
1998 404394 383487 361215 374120 380429
1999 414319 391713 370076 381348 389860
2000 424196 399997 378824 391556 399321
2001 434049 408265 387658 401236 408760
2002 443915 416537 396484 410027 418214
2003 453781 424808 405302 418818 427673
2004 463645 433080 414124 427714 437130
2005 473510 441352 422945 436758 446588
---------------------------------------------------------

---------------------------------------------------------
---------------------------------------------------------
1996 357368 385413 433849 452285 477126
1997 367793 388525 440127 480153 462148
1998 377074 396732 448609 475664 488877
1999 385760 402761 457203 488468 487061
2000 395288 409830 465348 505020 504889
2001 404424 416434 473484 506572 509216
2002 413543 423254 481710 520798 522826
2003 422814 429975 489935 532026 530054
2004 431981 436741 498142 538025 541669
2005 441169 443487 506350 551241 550268
---------------------------------------------------------

---------------------------------------------------------
YEAR Zone11 Zone12
---------------------------------------------------------
1996 417296 425006
1997 427618 423875
1998 438098 440497
1999 448559 445851
2000 459023 459041
2001 469486 467146
2002 479949 478724
2003 490412 488019
2004 500875 498859
2005 511338 508675
---------------------------------------------------------
35
Graphical output (Zone 4, 10 and 11):
Figure 2
36
(2) The outputs using the multi-regression technique:
Date and Time: 12/01/08 10:58:00 am

Checked by : Date:
Exam2
Object for forecast Zone(s)
The number of zone(s) 12

Quantity for forecast MWH


---------------------------------------------------------
---------------------------------------------------------
1987 294506 290683 267413 276172 277451
1988 305593 300692 281094 288187 289619
1989 314295 305455 298933 308691 308846
1990 331716 323125 312756 315694 321066
1991 342241 339580 323798 327851 331254
1992 348124 348267 330527 342438 354867
1993 362866 345667 332093 341483 350259
1994 366501 359639 305590 306636 348217
1995 373423 356855 337982 348050 353114
---------------------------------------------------------
Horizon estimates:
2012 530000 500000 480000 500000 500000
---------------------------------------------------------

---------------------------------------------------------
---------------------------------------------------------
1987 277460 318748 361148 368493 353941
1988 282605 306248 334913 357970 373114
1989 303292 331336 350180 385287 398496
1990 316370 344706 368167 393012 408925
1991 318654 352782 379443 406913 429139
1992 336934 389405 406038 456518 456706
1993 328408 377817 400842 416845 436362
1994 339999 385065 408059 459017 481492
1995 351021 372767 426833 448452 432564
---------------------------------------------------------
Horizon estimates:
2012 500000 480000 550000 620000 620000
---------------------------------------------------------
37
---------------------------------------------------------
YEAR Zone11 Zone12
---------------------------------------------------------
1987 321945 319706
1988 326156 351066
1989 368854 377184
1990 386381 390208
1991 392742 393532
1992 373208 408273
1993 396705 387546
1994 405072 417678
1995 405650 401560
---------------------------------------------------------
Horizon estimates:
2012 580000 580000
---------------------------------------------------------

---------------------------------------------------------
---------------------------------------------------------
1996 385427 370863 350201 360206 371598
1997 394548 379092 358195 368718 379703
1998 403649 387322 366189 377230 387765
1999 412735 395552 374183 385743 395793
2000 421809 403782 382177 394255 403795
2001 430874 412011 390171 402767 411775
2002 439932 420241 398165 411280 419739
2003 448983 428471 406159 419792 427688
2004 458029 436701 414153 428304 435626
2005 467070 444930 422147 436816 443553
---------------------------------------------------------

---------------------------------------------------------
---------------------------------------------------------
1996 360814 399977 422691 461167 473939
1997 369551 407879 431012 471483 483262
1998 378289 415389 439332 481799 492511
1999 387027 422507 447652 492114 501703
2000 395765 429233 455973 502430 510851
2001 404502 435567 464293 512746 519963
2002 413240 441509 472613 523062 529045
2003 421978 447059 480934 533378 538104
2004 430715 452217 489254 543694 547143
2005 439453 456982 497574 554010 556165
---------------------------------------------------------

---------------------------------------------------------
YEAR Zone11 Zone12
---------------------------------------------------------
1996 424138 432359
1997 433954 441255
1998 443770 450148
1999 453587 459039
2000 463403 467930
2001 473219 476820
2002 483035 485709
2003 492851 494598
2004 502667 503486
2005 512484 512375
---------------------------------------------------------
38
(3) Comparisons between the forecasted and actual results
The results obtained using the two forecasting techniques and the actual MWh for the
12 zones for 1996 are summarized in Table 2.
Table 2: Forecasted Results and Actual Energy For 1996
-------------------------------------------------------------
Zone Actual Load Time Series Multi-regression
(MWh) (MWh) Diff(%) (MWh) Diff(%)
-------------------------------------------------------------
Zone1 355562 384910 8.3 385427 8.4
Zone2 350112 367427 4.9 370863 5.9
Zone3 339605 344822 1.5 350201 3.1
Zone4 350760 361354 3.0 360206 2.7
Zone5 357967 362205 1.2 371598 3.8
Zone6 349928 357368 2.1 360814 3.1
Zone7 393678 385413 2.1 399977 1.6
Zone8 437582 433849 0.9 422691 3.4
Zone9 453650 452285 0.3 461167 1.7
Zone10 435126 477126 9.7 473939 8.9
Zone11 386183 417297 8.1 424138 9.8
Zone12 418523 425006 1.5 432359 3.3
--------------------------------------------------------------
39
8.3 Example 3
This example shows the monthly KVA forecasting of 7 feeders for the 12 months from April,
1996, to March, 1997. The historical load data for the 36 months from April, 1993, to March,
1996, are given as input. Only the stochastic time series technique can be used for monthly
forecasting.

Date and Time: 12/01/08 11:02:16 am

Checked by : Date:

Exam3
Object for forecast Feeder(s)

The number of feeder(s) 7
Quantity for forecast KVA
Forecasting type Monthly forecast

The number of months to forecast 12
HISTORICAL LOAD DATA (KVA)

---------------------------------------------------------
Y - M Feeder1 Feeder2 Feeder3 Feeder4 Feeder5
---------------------------------------------------------
1993.04 2645 3447 2155 1637 1986
1993.05 2473 3399 2023 1572 1850
1993.06 2302 3131 2016 1487 1821
1993.07 2323 3131 1984 1486 1772
1993.08 2269 3157 2064 1475 1783
1993.09 2448 3142 2043 1573 1760
1993.10 2768 3521 2302 1659 2151
1993.11 3358 3929 2515 1879 2242
1993.12 3303 4109 2647 1931 2434
1994.01 3001 4230 2646 1973 2458
1994.02 2991 3976 2732 2139 2433
1994.03 2676 3979 2453 1907 2215
1994.04 2586 3591 2291 1703 2009
1994.05 2550 3371 2201 1586 1896
1994.06 2348 3360 2081 1561 1853
1994.07 2348 3307 2081 1519 1861
1994.08 2368 3440 2065 1529 1921
1994.09 2357 3405 2202 1509 1871
1994.10 2641 3836 2323 1844 2247
1994.11 2947 4191 2631 1921 2444
1994.12 3082 4412 2703 2086 2707
1995.01 3173 4409 2762 2107 2610
1995.02 2982 4553 2994 2085 2279
1995.03 2984 4089 2670 1899 2331
1995.04 2694 3819 2384 1722 2110
1995.05 2529 3669 2220 1625 1879
1995.06 2520 3469 2185 1589 1905
1995.07 2480 3468 2126 1595 1889
1995.08 2580 3442 2140 1646 1912
1995.09 2554 3671 2112 1604 1859
40
1995.10 2877 3871 2581 1926 2367
1995.11 3144 4385 2690 2095 2379
1995.12 3309 4505 2921 2321 2486
1996.01 3307 4604 2949 2237 2445
1996.02 3415 4990 2920 1953 2372
1996.03 3067 4451 2658 1998 2142
---------------------------------------------------------
HISTORICAL LOAD DATA (KVA)

---------------------------------------------------------
Y - M Feeder6 Feeder7
---------------------------------------------------------
1993.04 1206 1055
1993.05 1137 939
1993.06 1112 953
1993.07 1117 944
1993.08 1152 956
1993.09 1123 930
1993.10 1348 1184
1993.11 1467 1190
1993.12 1624 1243
1994.01 1566 1223
1994.02 1367 1186
1994.03 1399 1071
1994.04 1266 1038
1994.05 1127 1002
1994.06 1143 948
1994.07 1133 969
1994.08 1147 954
1994.09 1115 965
1994.10 1420 1103
1994.11 1428 1214
1994.12 1492 1311
1995.01 1467 1359
1995.02 1423 1223
1995.03 1285 1146
1995.04 1246 1048
1995.05 1202 1017
1995.06 1137 950
1995.07 1163 943
1995.08 1145 957
1995.09 1158 984
1995.10 1324 1050
1995.11 1457 1343
1995.12 1573 1311
1996.01 1631 1216
1996.02 1467 1274
1996.03 1375 1101
---------------------------------------------------------
LOAD FORECAST RESULTS (KVA)

---------------------------------------------------------
---------------------------------------------------------
1996.04 2891 4185 2332 1810 1853
1996.05 2736 4066 2188 1738 1728
1996.06 2714 3861 2114 1692 1770
1996.07 2689 3875 2067 1697 1624
1996.08 2794 3858 2051 1718 1732
1996.09 2773 4095 2072 1692 1764
1996.10 3103 4306 2578 2018 2125
1996.11 3376 4829 2671 2194 2036
1996.12 3547 4959 2905 2420 2309
1997.01 3552 5067 2904 2338 2295
1997.02 3666 5463 2873 2051 2082
1997.03 3324 4933 2597 2099 1845
---------------------------------------------------------
41
---------------------------------------------------------
---------------------------------------------------------
1996.04 1367 956
1996.05 1284 998
1996.06 1182 905
1996.07 1247 901
1996.08 1281 954
1996.09 1229 918
1996.10 1394 1017
1996.11 1566 1321
1996.12 1695 1253
1997.01 1700 1167
1997.02 1549 1238
1997.03 1501 1044
---------------------------------------------------------

---------------------------------------------------------
---------------------------------------------------------
1996.04 2891 4185 2332 1810 1853
1996.05 2736 4066 2188 1738 1728
1996.06 2714 3861 2114 1692 1770
1996.07 2689 3875 2067 1697 1624
1996.08 2794 3858 2051 1718 1732
1996.09 2773 4095 2072 1692 1764
1996.10 3103 4306 2578 2018 2125
1996.11 3376 4829 2671 2194 2036
1996.12 3547 4959 2905 2420 2309
1997.01 3552 5067 2904 2338 2295
1997.02 3666 5463 2873 2051 2082
1997.03 3324 4933 2597 2099 1845
---------------------------------------------------------

---------------------------------------------------------
---------------------------------------------------------
1996.04 1367 956
1996.05 1284 998
1996.06 1182 905
1996.07 1247 901
1996.08 1281 954
1996.09 1229 918
1996.10 1394 1017
1996.11 1566 1321
1996.12 1695 1253
1997.01 1700 1167
1997.02 1549 1238
1997.03 1501 1044
---------------------------------------------------------
Y = Year
M = Month
42
Graphical output (Feeder 1, 4 and 7):
Figure 3
8.4 Example 4
The coupling multi-regression technique. (Choosing "two substations with load transfer")
This example shows how the coupling multi-regression technique works for load
forecasting of two substations with load transfers between them. The original data include
the 9 years of load records from 1988 to 1996. It has been assumed that 2000 KW was
transferred from Substation 2 to Substation 1 during the peak period in 1991, and that
3000 KW was transferred in 1993 and 1995. (In the actual forecasting, it is not necessary
to input the magnitude or direction of load transfers.) The forecasting for the 10 years
from 1997 to 2006 was conducted using both the original data and the data contaminated
by the intentional load transfers. The output reports are as follows. It can be seen that the
same forecasting results are obtained for the two sets of data, which indicate that the
effects contaminated by the load transfer have been automatically filtered out.
43
(1) Output using the original data:
Job File Name: C:\DesignBase2\Samples\LdFrcast\EXAM4A.LFC
Date and Time: 12/01/08 11:10:12 am
Checked by : Date:

Exam4a
The number of substation(s) 2 (with load transfer)


and load transfer coupling

---------------------------------------------------------
YEAR Subst1 Subst2
---------------------------------------------------------
1988 6110 5090
1989 6342 5171
1990 6835 5387
1991 7287 5728
1992 7373 5959
1993 7424 6028
1994 7857 6129
1995 8058 6228
1996 8252 6486
---------------------------------------------------------
Horizon estimates:
2013 12500 9200
---------------------------------------------------------

---------------------------------------------------------
YEAR Subst1 Subst2
---------------------------------------------------------
1997 9317 7075
1998 9588 7243
1999 9824 7390
2000 10032 7518
2001 10215 7632
2002 10379 7733
2003 10525 7823
2004 10656 7905
2005 10775 7978
2006 10883 8045
---------------------------------------------------------
Graphical output:
44
Figure 4
45
(2) The outputs using the data contaminated by load transfers:

Job File Name: C:\DesignBase2\Samples\LdFrcast\EXAM4B.LFC
Date and Time: 12/01/08 11:12:12 am
Checked by : Date:

Exam4b
The number of substation(s) 2 (with load transfer)


and load transfer coupling

---------------------------------------------------------
YEAR Subst1 Subst2
---------------------------------------------------------
1988 6110 5090
1989 6342 5171
1990 6835 5387
1991 9287 3728
1992 7373 5959
1993 10424 3028
1994 7857 6129
1995 11058 3228
1996 8252 6486
---------------------------------------------------------
Horizon estimates:
2013 12500 9200
---------------------------------------------------------

---------------------------------------------------------
YEAR Subst1 Subst2
---------------------------------------------------------
1997 9317 7075
1998 9588 7243
1999 9824 7390
2000 10032 7518
2001 10215 7632
2002 10379 7733
2003 10525 7823
2004 10656 7905
2005 10775 7978
2006 10883 8045
---------------------------------------------------------
46
8.5 Example 5
The successive multi-regression and the time series techniques (Choosing "substations")
follow.
Load forecasting can also be done using the general successive multi-regression or time
series technique by selecting the "Substations" as the "Object". The output using the two
techniques for both the original data, and for the data contaminated by load transfers, are
as follows. It can be seen that, in the case of the original data, the results obtained using
the two techniques are reasonably close to the results obtained using the coupling multi-
regression technique (see Example 4). In the case of the data with load transfers, the two
non-coupling techniques lead to large errors. However, this does not mean that coupling
multi-regression can replace the other two techniques. In many cases without load
transfers, the time series and successive multi-regression techniques will provide more
accurate forecasting results.
(1) Output using the original data:
a) Multi-regression with horizon estimate


Date and Time: 12/01/08 11:17:00 am
Checked by : Date:
Exam5a



---------------------------------------------------------
YEAR Subst1 Subst2
---------------------------------------------------------
1988 6110 5090
1989 6342 5171
1990 6835 5387
1991 7287 5728
1992 7373 5959
1993 7424 6028
1994 7857 6129
1995 8058 6228
1996 8252 6486
---------------------------------------------------------
Horizon estimates:
2013 12500 9200
---------------------------------------------------------
47

---------------------------------------------------------
YEAR Subst1 Subst2
---------------------------------------------------------
1997 8571 6615
1998 8817 6779
1999 9062 6943
2000 9308 7106
2001 9553 7270
2002 9797 7434
2003 10042 7597
2004 10286 7761
2005 10530 7925
2006 10775 8088
---------------------------------------------------------
Graphical output:
Figure 5
48
b) Stochastic time series technique.

Date and Time: 12/01/08 11:20:44 am

Checked by : Date:

Exam5a


---------------------------------------------------------
YEAR Subst1 Subst2
---------------------------------------------------------
1988 6110 5090
1989 6342 5171
1990 6835 5387
1991 7287 5728
1992 7373 5959
1993 7424 6028
1994 7857 6129
1995 8058 6228
1996 8252 6486
---------------------------------------------------------

---------------------------------------------------------
YEAR Subst1 Subst2
---------------------------------------------------------
1997 8521 6759
1998 8788 6948
1999 9056 7054
2000 9324 7159
2001 9592 7335
2002 9859 7570
2003 10127 7791
2004 10395 7953
2005 10663 8078
2006 10930 8223
---------------------------------------------------------
49
(2) The outputs using the data contaminated by load transfers:
a) Multi-regression with horizon estimate:

Date and Time: 12/01/08 11:23:33 am

Checked by : Date:

Exam5b



---------------------------------------------------------
YEAR Subst1 Subst2
---------------------------------------------------------
1988 6110 5090
1989 6342 5171
1990 6835 5387
1991 9287 3728
1992 7373 5959
1993 10424 3028
1994 7857 6129
1995 11058 3228
1996 8252 6486
---------------------------------------------------------
Horizon estimates:
2013 12500 9200
---------------------------------------------------------

---------------------------------------------------------
YEAR Subst1 Subst2
---------------------------------------------------------
1997 9287 5102
1998 9523 5185
1999 9759 5283
2000 9995 5399
2001 10231 5535
2002 10466 5692
2003 10702 5870
2004 10938 6073
2005 11174 6301
2006 11409 6556
---------------------------------------------------------
50
b) Stochastic time series technique:
Date and Time: 12/01/08 11:24:40 am

Checked by : Date:
Exam5b



---------------------------------------------------------
YEAR Subst1 Subst2
---------------------------------------------------------
1988 6110 5090
1989 6342 5171
1990 6835 5387
1991 9287 3728
1992 7373 5959
1993 10424 3028
1994 7857 6129
1995 11058 3228
1996 8252 6486
---------------------------------------------------------

---------------------------------------------------------
YEAR Subst1 Subst2
---------------------------------------------------------
1997 10021 5347
1998 10117 5431
1999 9493 6733
2000 11217 5474
2001 10042 6632
2002 11330 6525
2003 11186 6337
2004 11292 7190
2005 12103 6747
2006 11699 7239
---------------------------------------------------------
51

Distribution Load Forecast Program

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Distribution Load Forecast Program

Power Analytics Corporation

©Copyright Power Analytics Corporation 2012

Version 3.20.00 May 2008

All Rights Reserved.

2. Basic Principles of Load Forecasting ............................................................................. 3

3. Functions of the Program ................................................................................................. 5

4. Notes for Input ................................................................................................................... 7

5. Notes for Output ................................................................................................................ 7

6. How to Create a Load Forecast Job File ......................................................................... 7

7. Examples of Load Forecasting ...................................................................................... 27

GRAPHS & DIAGRAMS

Table 1: Forecasted Results and Actual Loads for 1996 .......................................................................33

 Distribution Load Forecast LoadForecast.pdf

 C:\Paladin\Samples\Ldfrcast = Load Forecast

Test Files: Exam1, Exam2, Exam3, Exam4A, Exam4B, Exam5A, Exam5B

(1) Forecasting carried out in terms of feeders, substations, or zones defined by

(2) Forecasting carried out in terms of a uniform grid, based on a mapping

The most popular approach to distribution component forecasting is multi-variable regression.

(1) Successive Multi-Regression. Compared to the conventional multi-regression,

(2) Coupling Multi-Regression. Load transfers may occur between substations or

2. Basic Principles of Load Forecasting

The following polynomial is a typical curve to fit:

Substituting x1  t , x2  t 2 , x 3  t 3 , x 4  t 1 , x5  t 2 , x 6  t 3 , Equation (1) becomes

2.2 Successive Multi-Regression

(2) Successive multi-regression is conducted by selecting important variables in an

(3) Importance of variables is examined using the significance t-test.

2.3 Coupling Multi-Regression

2.4 Stochastic Time Series Technique

This technique includes the following:

(2) Given a stationary time series:

the following linear model can apply:

 is the mean of the time series x i  and a t is a noise term.

r m-1 p1 + r m-2 p2 + r m-3 p3 + ....+ p m = r m

3. Functions of the Program

The program provides users with the following functional options:

(a) Choose forecasting method:

1. Multi-regression with horizon estimate

(b) Choose object for forecast:

(c) Choose quantity for forecast:

(d) Choose forecasting type:

4. Notes for Input

5. Notes for Output

6. How to Create a Load Forecast Job File

6.1 General Steps

A new job file can be created using the following steps:

a) Launch the Load Forecast program from the DesignBase2.0/Analysis/Additional Calculation/Load

b) Select the New command from the File menu:

c) Enter EXAM1 for new job file name :

f) Click the button to set up system:

 Number of object units

g) The following dialog box will appear for framework:

h) Input data for all fields:

6.2 Important Notes

4. How to Run the Load Forecast Program

All referenced commands will be described in the following page.

6.2 File Commands

Save As The File/Save As command allows a file to be saved under a new

6.3 View Commands

The View/Graph command opens the following graph dialog box:

6.4 Calculate Command

6.5 Windows Commands

6.6 Help Commands