Model to Predict Pavement Temperature Profile:

Development and Validation

Brian K. Diefenderfer, A.M.ASCE1; Imad L. Al-Qadi, F.ASCE2; and Stacey D. Diefenderfer, A.M.ASCE3
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Abstract: Flexible pavements comprise a majority of the primary highways in the United States. These primary highways are subjected
to heavy loading that can cause significant damage to the hot-mix asphalt 共HMA兲 pavements. As HMA is a viscoelastic material, the
structural or load-carrying capacity of the pavement varies with temperature. Thus, to accurately determine in situ strength characteristics
of flexible pavement, it is necessary to predict the temperature distribution within the HMA layers. The majority of previously published
research on pavement temperature prediction has consisted of predicting the annual maximum or minimum pavement temperature so as
to recommend a suitable asphalt binder performance grade. To determine the pavement temperature profile, the influence of ambient
temperature and seasonal changes must be understood such that the effects of heating and cooling trends within the pavement structure can
be quantified. Recent investigations have shown that it is possible to model daily pavement maxima and minima temperatures by knowing
the maximum or minimum ambient temperatures, the depth at which the pavement temperature is desired, and the calculated solar
radiation utilizing a linear relationship. This paper presents the verification that the pavement temperatures calculated using the daily solar
radiation could be accurately applied to any location. The suggested location-independent model was successfully validated utilizing data
from the Virginia Smart Road and two randomly selected long-term pavement performance seasonal monitoring program sites.
DOI: 10.1061/共ASCE兲0733-947X共2006兲132:2共162兲
CE Database subject headings: Pavement management; Temperature effects; Flexible pavements; Validation.

Introduction pavement surface. Thus, to study the in situ characteristics of

Characterization of the in situ strength performance of highways
constructed using hot-mix asphalt 共HMA兲 is difficult due to the
nature of the material. Hot-mix asphalt is a viscoelastic material;
that is, it exhibits the properties of both a viscous and an elastic
material. At low temperatures, HMA acts as an elastic solid in
which low amounts of applied strain are recoverable; thus,
permanent deformation is not likely to occur until this low strain
limit is surpassed. However, at high temperatures, HMA acts
as a viscous fluid in which the material begins to flow with an
applied stress. The temperature within the upper layers of a pave-
ment constantly varies due to several factors including ambient
temperature, solar radiation, wind speed, and reflectance of the
1 multilayer pavement system and possesses a unique structural
Research Scientist, Virginia Transportation Research Council,
Virginia Dept. of Transportation, 530 Edgemont Rd., Charlottesville, VA
22903. E-mail: Brian.Diefenderfer@VDOT.Virginia.gov
2
Founder’s Professor of Civil and Environmental Engineering,
Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Univ. of Illinois at
Urbana-Champaign, 205 N. Mathews MC-250, Urbana, IL, 61801.
E-mail: alqadi@uiuc.edu
3 representation of the in situ properties than existing pavements
Research Scientist, Virginia Transportation Research Council,
Virginia Dept. of Transportation, 530 Edgemont Rd., Charlottesville, VA
22903. E-mail: Stacey.Diefenderfer@VDOT.Virginia.gov
Note. Discussion open until July 1, 2006. Separate discussions must
be submitted for individual papers. To extend the closing date by one
month, a written request must be filed with the ASCE Managing Editor.
The manuscript for this paper was submitted for review and possible
publication on May 7, 2003; approved on October 15, 2004. This paper is
part of the Journal of Transportation Engineering, Vol. 132, No. 2,
February 1, 2006. ©ASCE, ISSN 0733-947X/2006/2-162–167/$25.00.
various pavement designs, it is imperative to know the tempera-
ture distribution within the pavement cross section. Testing at the
Virginia Smart Road was conducted in an effort to develop mod-
els for temperature prediction within the HMA layers of various
pavement cross sections.
Virginia Smart Road
The Virginia Smart Road, in Blacksburg, Virginia, was con-
structed as a facility to test various transportation-related tech-
nologies; included within this facility are instrumented pavement
test sections. The pavement test facility is approximately 2.7 km
in length, of which 1.3 km is flexible pavement. The flexible
pavement is divided into 12 sections of approximately 100 m
each. Each flexible pavement test section is comprised of a
configuration. Each layer in each section is instrumented to
measure quantitative pavement responses to traffic loading and
environmental conditions. In total, more than 500 instruments
were installed as the pavement was constructed. Therefore, it is
believed that the Virginia Smart Road provides a more realistic
that have been “retrofitted” with instruments. As part of the
ongoing research at the Virginia Smart Road, the temperature of
the pavement sections is continuously monitored using thermo-
couples. The thermocouples were fabricated in house, and a total
of 115 were installed across all 12 sections with depths ranging
from 0.038 to 1.12 m from the pavement surface. Additional
details of the testing program at the Virginia Smart Road can be
found in Al-Qadi et al. 共2004兲.

162 / JOURNAL OF TRANSPORTATION ENGINEERING © ASCE / FEBRUARY 2006

J. Transp. Eng., 2006, 132(2): 162-167

 Pavement Temperature Prediction
The desire to predict pavement temperatures is by no means a
recent development. Barber 共1957兲 was among the first research-
ers to discuss the calculation of maximum pavement temperatures
based on weather reports. However, a limitation of his model is
that it incorporates a total daily radiation factor instead of a more
accurate measure such as hourly radiation. Rumney and Jimenez
共1969兲 developed nomographs to predict pavement temperatures
at the surface and at a depth of 50 mm. The collected data
included pavement temperature and hourly solar radiation. A
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simulation model based on the theory of heat transfer and energy
balance at the pavement surface was later developed by Dempsey
共1970兲. Until the initiation of the long-term pavement perform-
ance 共LTPP兲 program, there was little published activity in the
general literature on this topic.
The strategic highway research program 共SHRP兲 established
the LTPP program in 1987 as a 20 year study to better character-
ize the in situ performance of pavements. Approximately 2,500
sites throughout North America were selected to represent a broad
range of pavement types and climatic conditions. To specifically
deal with the challenges of studying climatic conditions, 61 LTPP
sites were selected to become part of the seasonal monitoring
program 共SMP兲. The 1994 SMP research was designed to
measure and evaluate the effects of temperature and moisture
variations on pavement performance; thus making it possible to
monitor the appropriateness of the varying Superpave mixture
designs 共Ali and Lopez 1996兲.
From the initial SHRP testing and the more recent SMP
data, pavement temperature models were developed to assist
with the selection of the proper asphalt binder performance grade
for usage in a particular location 共Mohseni and Symons 1998a,b;
Lukanen et al. 1998; Bosscher et al. 1998兲. Solaimanian and
Kennedy 共1993兲 present an analytical approach to predict pave-
ment temperatures by employing heat and energy transfer theory.
Regression based models using other data sets were presented
by Bosscher et al. 共1998兲, Marshall et al. 共2001兲, and Park et al.
共2001兲. A computer simulation model that predicts summertime
pavement temperatures based on the theoretical heat transfer
models given in Solaimanian and Kennedy 共1993兲 was recently
presented by Hermansson 共2000, 2001兲.
Although many researchers have studied temperature distribu-
tion within a pavement, most of the previous work has primarily
focused on determining yearly maximum and minimum pave-
ment temperatures for the purpose of binder selection; very few
studies have discussed daily pavement temperature prediction.
Only recently, research efforts have been presented to predict
pavement temperatures on a smaller time scale 共Marshall et al.
2001; Park et al. 2001; Hermansson 2000, 2001兲. Given the
current ongoing work devoted to temperature prediction within
HMA pavements, there is still no simplified method for pavement
temperature prediction that is easily applied by nonresearchers in
the field who could benefit from such a method.
More recently, linear regression techniques, employed to
develop models based on data obtained at the Virginia Smart
Road, have shown that daily maximum or minimum pavement
temperatures can be predicted given the daily maximum or mini-
mum ambient temperatures, day of year, and depth at which the
pavement temperature is desired 共Diefenderfer et al. 2002兲. These
models were developed as a simplified method that can be used to
predict the temperature profile within a pavement structure. These
models have also been shown to be independent of the particular
JOURNAL OF TRANSPORTATION ENGINEERING © ASCE / FEBRUARY 2006 / 163
J. Transp. Eng., 2006, 132(2): 162-167
asphalt mixtures utilized in the pavement. This paper reports the
findings of current research performed to extend these models
for use in other locations by introducing the received daily solar
radiation that can be calculated for any location.
Pavement Temperature Monitoring
at the Virginia Smart Road
Linear regression models were developed to predict daily maxi-
mum and minimum pavement temperatures based on data
collected at the Virginia Smart Road. Linear relationships were
chosen as they combined good accuracy with simplicity making
them suitable for use by others outside the research arena.
Pavement temperature data from the Virginia Smart Road was
obtained from three depths within the pavement for model
development: 0.038, 0.063, and 0.188 m below the surface. All
three depths were located within HMA layers.
Daily Temperature Prediction Models Incorporating
Calculated Solar Radiation
The pavement temperature prediction models, initially developed
during this study, were used to predict the maximum and mini-
mum daily pavement temperatures at the Virginia Smart Road.
However, these general models could not accurately predict
pavement temperatures at other locations. This is because the
incoming solar radiation varies with location 共i.e., with respect to
latitude兲 and thus affects the resulting pavement temperature. One
reason for this variation is that as the earth traverses its orbit
around the sun, different locations on the planet receive varying
amounts of solar radiation due to the tilt of the north-south axis
with respect to the orbital plane. This tilt is termed the solar
declination. The declination is given as a positive value when the
sun is in the northern latitudes and as a negative value when the
sun is in the southern latitudes 共Anderson 1983兲. At the vernal
and autumnal equinoxes, the declination is zero. In addition, there
are seasonal variations on the incoming solar radiation since the
earth’s orbit follows an elliptical path. The changing distance
between the sun and the earth causes a daily variation in the solar
radiation received at the earth’s surface. An eccentricity factor
expresses this variation in distance in terms of one astronomical
unit 共AU兲. One AU is equal to the mean distance between the
earth and sun 共1.496⫻108 km兲. In order to model the pavement
temperature at other locations 共designated by their respective
latitudes兲, these parameters must be calculated.
The daily amount of solar radiation at any location on the earth
can be determined using the latitude and day of the year. From
these variables, the solar declination and eccentricity factor can
be calculated and then used to determine the daily solar radiation
共Iqbal 1983兲. The eccentricity factor is given as follows:
E0 = 1.000110 + 0.034221 cos ⌫ + 0.001280 sin ⌫
+ 0.000719 cos 2⌫ + 0.000077 sin 2⌫ 共1兲
where E0⫽eccentricity factor; and ⌫⫽day angle 共rad兲. The day
angle is expressed as follows:
2␲共dn−1兲
⌫= 共2兲
365
where dn⫽day number of the year ranging from 1 to 365.
 Table 1. Daily Solar Radiation Values for Four Locations in the Eastern
United States
Rs 共kJ/ m2 · day兲
Latitude
Location 共°N兲 January 1 May 1 September 1
Caribou, Me. 46.87 9,580 36,095 31,820
Washington, D.C. 38.95 14,461 37,661 34,214
Blacksburg, Va. 37.19 15,554 37,927 34,664
Tampa, Fl. 27.97 21,207 38,801 36,505
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The final term used to calculate the daily solar radiation at a

particular location is the sunrise hour angle. The hour angle is the
angle between the sun’s highest point each day 共where the hour
angle is zero兲 and the location of the sun at sunrise or sunset. At
sunrise the hour angle is positive and at sunset the hour angle is
negative. The sunrise hour angle is given as the following:
Fig. 1. Predicted daily maximum pavement temperature 关Eq. 共8兲兴
at 0.038 m depth for Virginia Smart Road versus measured pavement
temperature

␻s = cos−1共− tan ␾ tan ␦兲 共3兲

where ␻s⫽sunrise hour angle 共deg兲; ␾⫽latitude 共deg兲; and
␦⫽solar declination 共deg兲, and can be calculated as follows:
from the surface 共m兲. The root mean square error 共RMSE兲 and
␦ = 共0.006918 − 0.399912 cos ⌫ + 0.070257 sin ⌫ adjusted R2 for this model were calculated to be 5.8 and 77.1%,
respectively. The model to calculate the daily minimum pavement
− 0.006758 cos 2⌫ + 0.000907 sin 2⌫ − 0.002697 cos 3⌫

冉 冊
temperature, utilizing the calculated daily solar radiation, is given
180 as follows:
+ 0.00148 sin 3⌫兲 ⫻ 共4兲
␲
From Eqs. 共2兲–共5兲, the daily solar radiation on a horizontal T p min = − 1.2097 + 0.6754Ta min + 3.7642 ⫻ 10−4Rs + 7.2043Pd
surface can be given as the following:
共8兲
H0 = 冉 冊
24
␲
⫻ Isc ⫻ E0 ⫻ sin共␾兲sin共␦兲 ⫻
␻s ⫻ ␲
180
冉
− tan共␻s兲 冊 共5兲
where T pmin⫽predicted minimum pavement temperature 共°C兲;
where H0⫽daily solar radiation on a horizontal surface
Tamin⫽minimum daily ambient temperature 共°C兲; Rs⫽calculated
共kJ/m2 day兲; and Isc⫽solar constant⫽4,871 kJ/m2 h. Table 1
daily solar radiation 共kJ/m2 day兲; and Pd⫽depth from the surface
gives an example of the difference in solar radiation values for
共m兲. The RMSE and adjusted R2 for this model were calculated to
four locations in the eastern United States at different times
be 4.3 and 79.8%, respectively.
of the year.
The daily ambient temperatures were obtained for the
In an effort to develop a model form that would be useful for
Blacksburg municipal airport 共BCB兲, approximately 1.7 km
locations outside Virginia, a set of temperature prediction models
from the Virginia Smart Road, by accessing the National Virtual
that includes the calculated solar radiation was developed and is
Climatic Data section within the National Oceanographic and
expressed as follows:
Atmospheric Administration 共NOAA兲 website. The Blacksburg
T p = a + bTa + cRs + dPd 共6兲 municipal airport is a second-order weather station and thus only
daily 共and not hourly兲 ambient temperatures are available for this
where T p⫽predicted pavement temperature 共°C兲; a⫽intercept
station. As there is currently no weather station at the Virginia
coefficient; b⫽ambient temperature coefficient; Ta⫽measured
Smart Road, the National Virtual Climatic Data website was the
ambient temperature 共°C兲; c⫽calculated solar radiation coeffi-
only known source for this information.
cient; Rs⫽calculated solar radiation 共kJ/m2 day兲; d⫽depth
The models presented in Eqs. 共7兲 and 共8兲 were evaluated
coefficient; and Pd⫽depth within pavement 共m兲. Following the
using an independent data set: daily pavement temperature data
form of Eq. 共6兲, specific models for the daily maximum and
measured at the Virginia Smart Road and collected from July 3,
minimum predicted pavement temperature were developed using
2001 through December 31, 2001; a period of 183 days. The
data from the Virginia Smart Road. These linear regression mod-
RMSE and adjusted R2 values were calculated as 4.2 and 87.1%,
els were developed from measurements collected from February
respectively, for the daily maximum pavement temperature
2000 through May 2001; a total of 1,014 observations for each
model. The evaluation of the maximum pavement temperature
model. The model to predict the daily maximum pavement
model 关Eq. 共7兲兴 versus the measured pavement temperature at a
temperature, utilizing the calculated daily solar radiation, is given
depth of 0.038 m is presented in Fig. 1. The RMSE and adjusted
as follows:
R2 values for the daily minimum pavement temperature model
T p max = 2.78752 + 0.6861Ta max + 5.6736 ⫻ 10−4Rs − 27.8739Pd were calculated as 4.6 and 72.5%, respectively. The evaluation of
the minimum temperature model 关Eq. 共8兲兴 versus the measured
共7兲
pavement temperature at a depth of 0.038 m is presented in Fig. 2.
where T p max⫽predicted daily maximum pavement temperature Thus, it is shown that Eqs. 共7兲 and 共8兲 can accurately predict
共°C兲; Ta max⫽daily maximum ambient temperature 共°C兲; the daily maximum and minimum pavement temperatures at the
Rs⫽calculated daily solar radiation 共kJ/m2 day兲; and Pd⫽depth Virginia Smart Road using an independent data set.

164 / JOURNAL OF TRANSPORTATION ENGINEERING © ASCE / FEBRUARY 2006

J. Transp. Eng., 2006, 132(2): 162-167

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Fig. 2. Predicted daily minimum pavement temperature 关Eq. 共9兲兴 Fig. 3. Predicted daily maximum pavement temperature 关Eq. 共8兲兴
at 0.038 m depth for Virginia Smart Road versus measured pavement at 0.025 m depth for LTPP Site 9-1803 共Conn.兲 versus measured
temperature pavement temperature

Validation of Daily Pavement Temperature Prediction

Models Using LTPP SMP Data Analysis of the daily maximum pavement temperatures at LTPP
Site 9-1803 using Eq. 共7兲 yielded an adjusted R2 and a RMSE
In order to validate the daily pavement temperature models
of 82.4% and 5.2, respectively. Analysis of the daily minimum
presented in Eqs. 共7兲 and 共8兲 for locations outside Virginia, two
pavement temperatures at LTPP Site 9-1803 using Eq. 共8兲 yielded
LTPP SMP sites were randomly selected for inclusion in this
an adjusted R2 of 89.3% and a RMSE of 3.0, respectively. The
study. Daily pavement and ambient temperature data for LTPP
measured pavement temperature at a depth of 0.025 m versus the
sites included in the SMP testing is readily available for numerous
predicted pavement temperature is shown in Figs. 3 and 4 for
test sites in the United States and portions of Canada. LTPP SMP
maximum and minimum temperatures, respectively.
sites were considered randomly until two sites were identified that
satisfied the following criteria: Instrumentation to measure the pavement temperature at LTPP
• A large range of measured ambient and pavement temperature Site 48-1077 in Texas was placed at depths of 0.025, 0.065,
data were available; 0.105, and 0.182 m below the pavement surface; all four levels
• A representation of two areas having sufficiently different were located within the HMA layers. The input data for this
solar radiation values than Virginia was offered; and test section was collected during the period of January 1, 1994
• The pavement temperature data falls within the depth range through June 27, 1994 共a total of 534 observations兲. Analysis of
considered for the models developed for the Virginia the daily maximum pavement temperatures using Eq. 共7兲 yielded
Smart Road 共maximum depth of 0.188 m from the pavement an adjusted R2 and a RMSE of 90.4% and 4.1, respectively.
surface兲. Analysis of the daily minimum pavement temperatures using
The two selected LTPP SMP test locations are Test Sites 9-1803 Eq. 共8兲 yielded an adjusted R2 and a RMSE of 93.0% and 2.9,
and 48-1077. LTPP Test Site 9-1803 is located in New London, respectively. The actual pavement temperature at a depth of
Conn., at latitude 41.39°N. The pavement is comprised of a 0.025 m versus the predicted temperature is shown in Figs. 5 and
0.079-m-thick HMA surface layer, a 0.109-m-thick HMA base 6 for maximum and minimum temperatures, respectively.
layer, and a third layer of compacted gravel. LTPP Test Site
48-1077 is located in Hall, Texas at latitude 34.53°N. The pave-
ment is comprised of a 0.037-m-thick HMA surface layer,
a 0.040-m-thick HMA base layer, and a layer of crushed stone.
The models presented in Eqs. 共7兲 and 共8兲 were evaluated using
the data from these LTPP test sites in an effort to validate
the applicability of these models to multiple locations. The lati-
tude of the LTPP test site, date, and daily maximum and minimum
ambient temperatures were used in Eqs. 共7兲 and 共8兲 to predict the
daily maximum and minimum pavement temperatures. The lati-
tude and date were used to calculate the daily solar radiation
considered at each LTPP SMP site. The predicted daily maximum
and minimum pavement temperatures were then compared to the
measured daily maximum or minimum pavement temperatures
for each site.
Instrumentation to measure the pavement temperature at LTPP
Site 9-1803 in Connecticut was placed at depths of 0.025, 0.089,
and 0.153 m below the surface of the pavement. These three
depths are located within the HMA layers of the pavement struc- Fig. 4. Predicted daily minimum pavement temperature 关Eq. 共9兲兴
ture. The input data were measured during the period of January at 0.025 m depth for LTPP Site 9-1803 共Connecticut兲 versus
21, 1994 through June 21, 1995 共a total of 1,551 observations兲. measured pavement temperature

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J. Transp. Eng., 2006, 132(2): 162-167


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Fig. 5. Predicted daily maximum pavement temperature 关Eq. 共8兲兴
at 0.025 m depth for LTPP Site 48-1077 共Texas兲 versus measured
pavement temperature
Conclusions
Models for predicting the daily maximum and minimum pave-
ment temperatures were developed and validated using data from
the Virginia Smart Road and two LTPP SMP test sites. Models
were developed that incorporate the depth within the pavement,
calculated daily solar radiation, and daily maximum or minimum
ambient temperature as follows:
T p max = 2.78752 + 0.6861Ta max + 5.6736 ⫻ 10−4Rs
− 27.8739Pd 共maximum temperature兲
T p min = − 1.2097 + 0.6754Ta min + 3.7642 ⫻ 10−4Rs
+ 7.2043Pd 共minimum temperature兲
It is anticipated that the models presented within this study will be
of benefit to those who need to determine the pavement tempera-
ture profile in order to calculate in situ pavement engineering
characteristics.
In addition, these models may be utilized to estimate the
rutting performance due to heavy vehicle loading and/or low-
temperature cracking of HMA pavements. By using ambient
temperature trends from historical records, these models can
predict anticipated future pavement temperatures and thus aid
researchers in determining the amount of time that pavements
Fig. 6. Predicted daily minimum pavement temperature 关Eq. 共9兲兴
at 0.025 m depth for LTPP Site 48-1077 共Texas兲 versus measured
pavement temperature
166 / JOURNAL OF TRANSPORTATION ENGINEERING © ASCE / FEBRUARY 2006
J. Transp. Eng., 2006, 132(2): 162-167
are subjected to critical temperatures. Additional research on this
topic is warranted and may include an analysis of ambient
temperatures, solar radiation measurements, and seasonal effects
to produce real-time pavement temperature profiles.
Acknowledgments
This research is part of the Virginia Smart Road Pavement
Research Project sponsored by the Virginia Transportation
Research Council and the Virginia Department of Transportation.
The assistance of Amara Loulizi, Samer Lahouar, and the Virginia
Department of Transportation personnel is greatly appreciated.
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