Question -1

total Orders
noted

Alex(30%) Alicia (45%) Juan (25%)

Incorrect Incorrect Incorrect

(20%) (12%) (5%)

Correct Correct
Correct(95%)
(80%) (88%)

(Figure-1)

a. Probability of Alicia filling order = 0.45

b. Probability of order being correctly filled by Juan = 0.95
*it Is already known that order has been filled by Juan, and he fills 95% orders correctly

c. Order filled by Alex given it is wrongly filled = .47

Order filled by Alicia given it is wrongly filled = 0.43
Order filled by Juan given it is wrongly filled = 0.10

d. Order filled by Alex given it is correctly filled = 0.27

Order filled by Alicia given it is correctly filled = 0.45
Order filled by Juan given it is correctly filled = 0.27
 Question -2

Agrees for ban of bag

- Y N  

Does recycling Y 0.4 0.27 0.67

N 0.15 0.18 0.33 (table-1)

a. probability that   0.55 0.45   adult recycles

and does not believe that
plastic, non-compostable shopping bags should be banned= 0.27
b. probability that adult does recycle = 0.67
c. Probability that adult does recycle or does believe that plastic, non-
compostable shopping bags should be banned = 0.82
d. Probability that adult does not recycle or does not believe that plastic,
non-compostable shopping bags should be banned = 0.60
e. probability that adult does not believe that plastic, non-compostable
shopping bags should be banned given that the adult does recycle = 0.40

Question -3
  40% of all the US adults invest in Mutual funds
 20% investors are retired people

a. probability of exactly 8 being retired out of 20 randomly picked people =

0.022
b. probability of 12 or more are retired = 0.000101 approx. 0

number of retired people probability

12 8.6566E-05
13 1.3318E-05
14 1.6647E-06
15 1.6647E-07
16 1.3006E-08
17 7.6504E-10
18 3.1877E-11
19 8.3886E-13
20 1.0486E-14
Total
0.000101

(table - 2)

c. expected retired people in a random sample of 20 investors = 4

d. probability of exactly 10 invested out of 20 randomly picked
people = 0.117
e. probability of fewer than 5 people invested out of 20 randomly
picked people = 0.0509

number of people investing probability

0 3.6562E-05
1 4.8749E-04
2 3.0874E-03
3 1.2350E-02
4 3.4991E-02
(table - 3)

f. probability of no adult invested out of 20 randomly picked

people = 0.000036
 g. probability of 15 or more invested out of 20 randomly picked
people = 0.0016
number of people investing probability
15 1.2945E-03
16 2.6969E-04
17 4.2304E-05
18 4.7004E-06
19 3.2985E-07
20 1.0995E-08
(table - 4)

h. maximum value will be for x=8. Which is 0.180

number of people investing probability
0 3.6562E-05
1 4.8749E-04
2 3.0874E-03
3 1.2350E-02
4 3.4991E-02
5 7.4647E-02
6 1.2441E-01
7 1.6588E-01
8 1.7971E-01
9 1.5974E-01
10 1.1714E-01
11 7.0995E-02
12 3.5497E-02
13 1.4563E-02
14 4.8544E-03
15 1.2945E-03
16 2.6969E-04
17 4.2304E-05
18 4.7004E-06
19 3.2985E-07
20 1.0995E-08
(table-5)
For part e, at x=4 probability will be 0.03499

For f, Probability of 0 adult is almost 0

For g, we have x=15 with a probability of 0.001294.

probabilities of 4, 0, 15 is moving towards the probability of the expected value i.e, 8.

Question -4

 mean arrival rate of cars at pump(ƛ) = 3.2cars/2 hours

 mean arrival rate per hour = 1.6 cars/ hour
 mean arrival rate per half an hour = 0.8 cars/ hour

a. probability of 3 cars arriving in 1 hour interval

P(ƛ=1.6|x=3) = 0.137
b. probability of 0 cars arriving in half an hour interval P(ƛ=0.8|x=0) = 0.449
c. if arrival rate if 5 cars/ hour, probability of 5 or more cars arriving in 1
hour interval = 0.024

X Probability
5 0.0176
6 0.0047
7 0.0011
8 0.0002
9 0.0000
10 0.0000
11 0.0000
12 0.0000
13 0.0000
14 0.0000
15 0.0000
16 0.0000
P(ƛ=5|
X>=5) 0.024
X Probability
0 0.202
1 0.323
2 0.258
3 0.138
4 0.055
P(ƛ=5|X<5) 0.976
(table-7)
So, P(ƛ=1.6|X>=5) = 1- P(ƛ=1.6|X<5) = .024
(table-6)
* The chances of arriving of 5 or more cars within 1 hour interval will
be 2.4% which is quite low.