Assignment 3

Case study: Go Bananas

1. Solution
The go bananas production process working properly then;
 This experiment consists of a sequence of n=25 identical trials (boxes).
 A 16 ounces box of go bananas either meets or fails to meet the standard
weight of banana flavored marshmallows, so two outcomes are possible on
each trial.
 The probability of success p is 0.08 and does not change from time to time.
 The trials are independent.
We will therefore use the binomial distribution to calculate the probability a
weekly sample will result in a shutdown of production if the production process is
working properly.
Parameters:
p=0.08, n=23, Probability of x successes = 0 … 25
Number of
boxes that fail
to meet the P(X=x)
standard
weight(x)
0 0.124364287
1 0.270357145
2 0.282111840
3 0.188074536
4 0.089948691
5 0.032850826
6 0.009521979
7 0.002247424
8 0.000439713
9 7.22234E-05
10 1.00485E-05
11 1.19152E-06
12 1.20879E-07
13 1.05112E-08
 14 7.83443E-10
15 4.99587E-11
16 2.71515E-12
17 1.24994E-13
18 4.83068E-15
19 1.54759E-16
20 4.03719E-18
21 8.35856E-20
22 1.32151E-21
23 1.49888E-23
24 1.08614E-25
25 3.77789E-28

Upon summing the probabilities of outcomes 5 through 25 yields P (X≥5)

=0.0451. This is the probability a weekly sample will result in a shutdown of
production if the production process is working properly. If the production
process is working properly it will be shut down almost 5% of the time.
2. Solution:
In (1) we calculated the probability the production process will be shut down
when it is working properly is 0.0451.Since this exceeds .01, we consider
shutting down the the production process with 6 or more boxes in weekly
sample fails to meet the standard weight of banana flavored marshmallows.
Summarizing the probabilities of outcomes 6 through 25 yields P (X≥6)
=0.0123. this exceeds .01 so we next consider shutting down the production
process when 7 or more boxes in the weekly sample plan fails to meet the
standard weight of banana flavored marshmallows. Summarizing the
possibilities of outcome 7 through 25 yields P (x≥7) =0.0028. If GGG
management want to shut down the production, no more than 1% of the time
when the production process is working properly. The production process
should be shut down when 7 or more boxes in the weekly sample fails to meet
the banana flavored marshmallows.

3. Solution:
In (1) we calculated the probability the production process will be shut down
when it is working properly is 0.0451.Since this exceeds .01, we consider
shutting down the the production process with 6 or more boxes in weekly
sample fails to meet the standard weight of banana flavored marshmallows.
Summarizing the probabilities of outcomes 6 through 25 yields P (X≥6)
=0.0123. this exceeds .01 so we next consider shutting down the production
process when 7 or more boxes in the weekly sample plan fails to meet the
standard weight of banana flavored marshmallows. Summarizing the
possibilities of outcome 7 through 25 yields P (x≥7) =0.0028. If GGG
management want to shut down the production, no more than 1% of the time
when the production process is working properly. The production process
should be shut down when 7 or more boxes in the weekly sample fails to meet
the banana flavored marshmallows.
4. Solution:
We will systematically reduce the value of p (the probability of 16 ounce boxes
will fail to meet the standard weight when the process is working properly).And
calculate the probability at least 5 boxes will fail to meet the standard when the
production process is operating properly.
P P(X≥5)
0.08 0.0451
0.07 0.0274
0.06 0.0150
0.05 0.0072
Ms.Finkel must redesign the production process to reduce the percentage of 16
ounce boxes of go bananas that fail to meet the standard weight of banana
flavored marshmallows when the process is working properly to between .05
and 0.6. Evaluation of potential value of p between 0.05 and 0.06 shows that if
p=0.0542, the probability at least 5 of the sample boxes will fail to meet the
standard is .01 or less.