DECISION MODELLING

FINAL PROJECT REPORT

OPTIMAL USE OF MANPOWER

TO ACHIEVE DEPARTMENTAL
TARGETS

SUBMITTED TO: SUBMITTED BY: GROUP 12

Prof. Debabrata Das Abhishek Mukherjee (MBA 19001)
Aman Agrawal (MBA19005)
Ankit Goel (MBA19007)
Deepansh Goyal (MBA19024)
Nikita Seth (MBA19047)
Nishant Singhal (MBA19050)
 TABLE OF CONTENTS

1. Introduction…………………………………………….……2
2. Modelling Methodology…………………………………...4
3. Analysis & Solution…………………………………….….6
4. Recommendations…………………………………………9
5. Scope…………………………………………………………9
6. References…………………………………………………10

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 INTRODUCTION
Manpower planning is putting the right number of people, right kind of people at the right
place, at the right time doing the right things for which they are suited for the
achievement of goals of the organization. For any organization or any department of it,
manpower planning plays an important role. It helps in identifying the shortage and
surplus of manpower, utilizing the manpower in the best effective way and increasing the
overall productivity of the organization or department.

For our project, we have taken a similar kind of problem where we will be developing a
mathematical model for the optimal usage of manpower of a department to achieve their
departmental goals and find out the minimum manpower requirement to achieve their
all departmental goals.

We have taken a real-world problem of NPB (Non-Payment of Bills) department of

Torrent Power Limited in Agra. The department is currently facing issues of manpower
management and is unable to achieve its departmental goals set by the management.

The NPB department is a revenue collection department of the company and has four
major operational activities. These activities are:
• Disconnection activity: It deals with the disconnection of customer electricity
supply on defaulting in non-payment of electricity bills. It is further divided into
two parts:
o Source Disconnection: Disconnection of consumer supply directly from
the source of power. Generally, only one employee (per team) of the
company is employed in this activity as the activity at the site is carried
out by the outsourced vendor and the company employee carries the
supervision work at the site.
o Meter Disconnection: Disconnection of consumer supply from the
electricity meter. It consists of two company employees per team.
• Reconnection Activity: Reconnection of consumer supply after the payment of
his electricity bill. It consists of one employee per team.
• Client Calling: Calling the defaulters of non-payment of bills before the
disconnection to inform them about it. It consists of a single employee per team
• Site Visit: It deals with visiting the non-frequent defaulters and other site related
issues, consumers. Only one employee per team is engaged in this activity.

The management has set three goals for the department. These goals are:
• At least 100 disconnections in a day by the disconnection teams
• The amount of the arrear of the disconnected services should be greater than Rs.
2.5 lac per day
• The number of site visits by the disconnection teams and Site visit team should
not be less than 250 in a day.

The manager provided us with the average data of the number of disconnections, amount
of arrear of disconnected services and number of site visits done the various teams in a
day

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 Team No. of No. of Amount of arrear
Visits Disconnection disconnected (in Rs.)
Source 14 8 50000
Disconnection
Meter Disconnection 24 10 20000
Site Visit 30 - -
Table 1: Average productivity data of various teams of the department (All data is in per day figure)

The department has limited manpower of 24 technicians and its source disconnection
team is limited to 3 because of the vendor constraints. The maximum number of
employees that can be on either leave or training is limited to 2 by the manager. Also, to
ensure the customer satisfaction department plans to deploy 4 teams to the Client Calling
so that every consumer is informed about hid default before the disconnection. The
manager also plans to have at least two teams for reconnection as this activity is driven
by external sources.

With all the data and limitations, the Manager told us that employing a minimum number
of teams both in reconnection and client call was his priority followed by a disconnection
target. The amount of arrear of disconnected services was his next priority while the
number of visits was his last priority.

The manager also told that at times in different months, it becomes important for them
to focus on the area of disconnected services than the no. of disconnections. He also told
that for the next financial year the number of disconnections per day for every quarter
is set different and therefore he has to estimate the minimum manpower required for a
year to achieve his disconnection target in every quarter.

By the following data, we set our three objectives and will be using goal programming
techniques to achieve all the objectives. The defined objectives are as follows:

• To analyze if the department can meet all its goals with limited manpower.
• To analyze the change in the model by changing the priority of the goals as per
requirements
• To forecast the minimum number of employees that the department should have
based on the targets set by the management for next year

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 MODELLING METHODOLOGY

The problem that has been mentioned above consists of various goals that the
department needs to fulfill. Therefore, to solve it, we will be applying and using the GOAL
PROGRAMMING TECHNIQUE.

Now, we will be defining the decision variables whose values will help us to determine
whether the goals are achieved or not. Let

X1 be the number of teams that are required for source disconnection

X2 be the number of teams that are required for meter disconnection
X3 be the number of teams that are required for site visits
X4 be the number of teams that are required for reconnection
X5 be the number of teams that are required for a client call
X6 be the number of persons that are on leave/training

Since there are some functional constraints, we will be defining them as well

X1 +2 X2 + X3 + X4 + X5 + X6 ≤ 24 (Department manpower constraint)

X1 ≤ 3 (Source disconnection team constraint)
X6 ≤ 2 (Leave Constraint)

Now, we will be defining each goal mathematically along with the objective function of
each goal

Goal 1: At least two teams are required for the reconnection

X4-d1++d1- = 2

Where d1+ =the amount by which the number of reconnection teams is more than 2
d1- =the amount by which the number of reconnection teams is less than 2
Objective function: Minimize d1-

Goal 2: At least four teams are required for the client calls

X5-d2++d2- = 4

Where d2+ =the amount by which the number of clients calling teams are more than 4
d2- =the amount by which the number of clients calling teams is less than 4
Objective function: Minimize d2-

Goal 3: Number of disconnections in a single day should be greater than 100

8X1+10X2-d3++d3- = 100

Where d3+ =the amount by which the number of disconnections is more than 100
d3- =the amount by which the number of disconnections is less than 100
Objective function: Minimize d3-

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Goal 4: Amount of arrear of disconnected services in a single day should be greater than
Rs.2.5 lac

50000X1+20000X2-d4++d4- = 250000

Where d4+ =the amount by which the arrear is more than 250000
d4- =the amount by which the arrear is less than 250000
Objective function: Minimize d4-

Goal 5: Number of visits in a single day should be greater than 250

14X1+20X2 +30X3-d5++d5- = 250

Where d5+ =the amount by which the number of site visits is more than 250
d5- =the amount by which the number of site visits is less than 250
Objective function: Minimize d5-

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 ANALYSIS & SOLUTION

Our analysis part consists of analyzing the various objectives that are set by us on the
data and information by the department head.

Objective 1: To analyze if the department can meet all its goals with limited manpower.

Objective function: Min P1 (d1-) + P1 (d2-) + P2 (d3-) + P3 (d4-) + P4 (d5-)

By solving the above objective function along with all functional constraints and goal
equations, the following results were obtained

Variable Value Variable Value Variable Value

X1 2 d1+ 0 d1- 0
X2 8 d2+ 0 d2- 0
X3 0 d3+ 0 d3- 4
X4 2 d4+ 10000 d4- 0
X5 4 d5+ 0 d5- 30
X6 0
Table 2: Optimal solution of the variables for Objective 1

Analysis: The optimal solution for the department is to deploy 2 persons in source
disconnection, 8*2= 16 persons in meter disconnection, 2 in reconnection and 4 in client
calls. It should not deploy anyone to site visits.

By referring to the solution table we also come to know that the department was unable
to achieve the target of 100 disconnections and it was 4 less than the target(d3-=4).
Department also underachieved its goal of minimum 250 visits by 30. (d5-=30)

Objective 2: To analyze the change in the model by changing the priority of the goals as
per requirements.

Objective function: Min P1 (d1-) + P1 (d2-) + P3 (d3-) + P2 (d4-) + P4 (d5-)

On solving this objective function in excel solver, considering all the constraints and goal
equations, the following solution was obtained

Variable Value Variable Value Variable Value

X1 2 d1+ 0 d1- 0
X2 8 d2+ 0 d2- 0
X3 0 d3+ 0 d3- 4
X4 2 d4+ 10000 d4- 0
X5 4 d5+ 0 d5- 30
X6 0
Table 3: Optimal solution of the variables for Objective 2

Analysis: By interchanging the priority of goal 3 and goal 4, we found that there was no
change in the optimal solution. This is because after achieving Goal 1 and Goal 2, the

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department does not have sufficient resources for achieving Goal 3 of a minimum number
of disconnections. Also, the department was able to achieve Goal 4 of the minimum
amount of arrear of the disconnected services even after not achieving Goal 3. That's why
interchanging the priority of Goal 3 and Goal 4 did not have any effect on the optimal
solution.

Objective 3: To forecast the minimum number of employees that the department should
have based on the targets set by the management for next year.

Set Targets:

Quarter No. of Visits No. of Disconnection Amount of arrear disconnected

Q1 250 110 250000
Q2 250 105 250000
Q3 250 100 250000
Q4 250 108 250000
Table 4: Table of the targets set by management for next year (all figures are for per day)

Objective function: Min P1 (d1-) + P1 (d2-) + P2 (d3-) + P3 (d4-) + P4 (d5-)

The disconnection target in every quarter is different. So, we will be solving the model
separately for each quarter and obtain the value of each variable in every quarter.

Variable Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
X1 2 2 2 2
X2 8 8 8 8
X3 0 0 0 0
X4 2 2 2 2
X5 4 4 4 4
X6 0 0 0 0
Table 5: Table of the optimal solution of decision variables in every quarter for Objective 3 with limited
manpower

Priority 1 Priority 2 Priority 3 Priority

4
Goal Goal Goal 3 Goal 4 Goal 5
1 2
Disconnection X4≥ 2 X5≥ 4 Disconnection Arr≥250000 Vis≥250
target
Q1 110 2 4 96 260000 220
Q2 105 2 4 96 260000 220
Q3 100 2 4 96 260000 220
Q4 108 2 4 96 260000 220
Table 6: Solution table for the optimal value of targets met by limited manpower

Analysis: The above two tables show that with the limited manpower of 24, the
department is unable to achieve the disconnection target in every quarter. Therefore,
there is a requirement to increase the manpower to achieve the disconnection target in
every quarter.

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By further analysis and increasing the manpower of the department every time by 1, we
found the minimum number of persons required in every quarter, so that the
disconnection target set by the management is achieved.
The minimum manpower required in Q1 and Q4 came out to be 27 and for Q2 and Q3, it
came out to be 26. The breakup of manpower for each activity is shown in below table
along with the goal achievement data values in other tables
Variable Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
X1 3 2 3 2
X2 9 9 8 9
X3 0 0 1 1
X4 2 2 2 2
X5 4 4 4 4
X6 0 0 0 0
Table 7: Table of the optimal solution of each decision variable when manpower increased to the
minimum possible number to achieve the disconnection target

Priority 1 Priority 2 Priority 3 Priority

4
Goal Goal Goal 3 Goal 4 Goal 5
1 2
Min. Disconnection X4≥ X5≥ Disconnection Arr≥250000 Vis≥250
Manpower target 2 4
required
Q1 27 110 2 4 114 330000 258
Q2 26 105 2 4 106 290000 244
Q3 26 100 2 4 104 310000 264
Q4 27 108 2 4 109 290000 274
Table 8: Solution table for the optimal value of targets met when manpower increased to the minimum
possible number to achieve the disconnection target

We can see by the table that the department can achieve its disconnection target by
increasing the manpower and without affecting its goals that are of most priority. It was
able to overachieve the goal of the disconnections. However, the minimum number of
technicians required in every quarter is not the same.

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 RECOMMENDATIONS
The department is unable to meet its goal of at least 100 number of disconnections in a
single day by its limited workforce. Therefore, there is a need for increasing the
workforce of the department.

Another recommendation that can be suggested is to increase the productivity of its

disconnection teams (both source and meter teams) to achieve its goal of at least 100
disconnections in a single day.

The minimum forecasted the number of employees for next year so that the department
can achieve the target of minimum disconnections in a day was 26 (for Q2 and Q3) and
27 (for Q1 and Q4). Based on this, we will recommend the department to employ two
extra full-time employees for the whole year and one part-time employee for Q1 and Q4
in the department.

SCOPE
The developed model can be very useful for the department for the future. The model can
help in determining various things for the department. Some important things that can
be determined with the help of this model are:

• Forecasting the minimum manpower requirement based on the targets.

• Analyzing the impact of the change in daily productivity on the targets.
• Setting the minimum productivity of each team to achieve the targets.
• Identifying and finding the best possible use of manpower when priority of goal
changes.

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 REFERENCES

• https://www.torrentpower.com/index.php/site/indexs
• Mr. Uday Singh, Manager, Zone-2 NPB – Phone No. 9690013424
Email Id: udaysingh@torrentpower.com
• Mr. Rahul Awasthi, Assistant Manager, Zone-2 NPB – Phone No. 9690007706
Email Id: rahulawasthi@torrentpower.com

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