Chapter 14 Homework

14-8) Ray Cahnman is the proud owner of a 1955 sports car. On any given day, Ray never knows whether his
car will start. Ninety percent of the time it will start if it started the previous morning, and 70% of the time it will
not start if it did not start the previous morning.
(a) Construct the matrix of transition probabilities.

P= 0.9 0.1
[
0.3 0.7 ]
Where:
P1 = 0.9 = probability that the car will start correctly today given it started correctly previous
morning
P2 = 0.1 = probability that the car will not start correctly today given it started correctly previous
morning
P3 = 0.3 = probability that the car will start correctly today given it was not starting correctly
previous morning
P4 = 0.7 = probability that the car will not start correctly today given it was not starting correctly
previous morning
(b) What is the probability that it will start tomorrow if it started today?

π ( 0 ) = (1 0 ), π (1 )=(0.9, 0.1)
Probability that it starts tomorrow if it started today = 0.9
(c) What is the probability that it will start tomorrow if it did not start today?

π ( 0 ) = (0 1 ), π (1 )=(0.3, 0.7)
Probability that it starts tomorrow if it didn't start today = 0.3
14-9) Alan Resnik, a friend of Ray Cahnman, bet Ray $5 that Ray’s car would not start 5 days from now (see
Problem 14-8).
(a) What is the probability that it will not start 5 days from now if it started today?

If: (0)  (1    0), (1)  (0.9, 0.1), (5)  (0.76944, 0.23056)

Probability that it will not start in five days from today is 23.056%.
(b) What is the probability that it will not start 5 days from now if it did not start today?

If: (0)  (0    1), (1)  (0.3, 0.7), (5)  (0.69168, 0.30832)

Probability that it will not start five days from today is 30.832%
(c) What is the probability that it will start in the long run if the matrix of transition probabilities does not
change?

Markov Analysis Results above: In equilibrium   P

1  0.91 + 0.32 2  0.11 + 0.72 1 + 2  1 or, 1  0.75, 2  0.25
Therefore, long-run probability of starting is 75%.
14-10) Over any given month, Dress-Rite loses 10% of its customers to Fashion, Inc., and 20% of its market to
Luxury Living. But Fashion, Inc., loses 5% of its market to Dress-Rite and 10% of its market to Luxury Living
each month; and Luxury Living loses 5% of its market to Fashion, Inc., and 5% of its market to Dress-Rite. At
the present time, each of these clothing stores has an equal share of the market. What do you think the market
shares will be next month? What will they be in 3 months?

If states 1, 2, and 3 represent Dress-Rite, Fashion, Inc., and Luxury living customers:
 0.7 0.1 0.2
P   0.05 0.85 0.1
 0.05 0.05 0.9 

If: (0)  (1/3    1/3    1/3)  1/3 (1    1    1) (1)  1/3(0.8    1    1.2)  (.264 .333 .396)
Market shares after one month are 26.4%, 33.3%, and 39.6%
(3)  (0.1952    0.3252    0.4796)
After three months, market shares will be 19.322%, 32.192%, and 47.487%.
14-12) Goodeating Dog Chow Company produces a variety of brands of dog chow. One of their best values is
the 50-pound bag of Goodeating Dog Chow. George Hamilton, president of Goodeating, uses a very old
machine to load 50 pounds of Goodeating Chow automatically into each bag. Unfortunately, because the
machine is old, it occasionally over- or underfills the bags. When the machine is correctly placing 50 pounds of
dog chow into each bag, there is a 0.10 probability that the machine will put only 49 pounds in each bag the
following day, and there is a 0.20 probability that 51 pounds will be placed in each bag the next day. If the
machine is currently placing 49 pounds of dog chow in each bag, there is a 0.30 probability that it will put 50
pounds in each bag tomorrow and a 0.20 probability that it will put 51 pounds in each bag tomorrow. In
addition, if the machine is placing 51 pounds in each bag today, there is a 0.40 probability that it will place 50
pounds in each bag tomorrow and a 0.10 probability that it will place 49 pounds in each bag tomorrow.

0.5 0.3 0.2 

P   0.1 0.7 0.2 
 0.1 0.4 0.5

(a) If the machine is loading 50 pounds in each bag today, what is the probability that it will be placing 50
pounds in each bag tomorrow?

70%  the second column (50 pounds) of (0    1    0) P

(b) Resolve part (a) when the machine is placing only 49 pounds in each bag today.

30%  the second column of (1    0    0) P

(c) Resolve part (a) when the machine is placing 51 pounds in each bag today.

40%  the second column of (0    0    1) P

14-13) Resolve Problem 14-12 (Goodeating Dog Chow) for five periods.
(a) If the machine is loading 50 pounds in each bag today, what is the probability that it will be placing 50
pounds in each bag for the next five days?

If: (0)  (0    1    0)

(1)  (0.1 0.7  0.2) (2)  (0.14 0.6 0.26) (3)  (0.156 0.566 0.278)
(4)  (0.1624 0.5542 0.2834) (5)  (0.165 0.55 0.285)
Therefore, probability of placing 50 pounds is 55%.
(b) Resolve part (a) when the machine is placing only 49 pounds in each bag for the next five days.

If: (0)  (1    0    0)

(1)  (0.5 0.3  0.2) (2)  (0.3 0.44 0.26) (3)  (0.22 0.502 0.278)
(4)  (0.188 0.5286 0.2834) (5)  (0.1752 0.5398 0.285)
Therefore, probability of placing 50 pounds is 53.98%.

(c) Resolve part (a) when the machine is placing 51 pounds in each bag for the next five days.

If: (0)  (0    0    1)

(1)  (0.1 0.4  0.5) (2)  (0.14 0.51 0.35) (3)  (0.156 0.539 0.305)
(4)  (0.1624 0.5461 0.2915) (5)  (0.165 0.5476 0.2875)
Therefore, probability of placing 50 pounds is 54.75%.
Chapter 15 Homework

Factors for Computing Control Chart Limits, When z = 3,

z = number of normal standard deviations (2 for 95.5% confidence, 3 for 99.7%)

15-8) Shader Storage Technologies produces refrigeration units for food producers and retail food
establishments. The overall average temperature that these units maintain is 46° Fahrenheit. The average
range is 2° Fahrenheit. Samples of six are taken to monitor the process. Determine the upper and lower
control chart limits for averages and ranges for these refrigeration units.
If N = 6, From Table Above: A2 = 0.483, D4 = 2.004, D3 = 0

UCL x  X  A2  R 46 + 0.483 × 2 46.966

LCL x  X  A2  R 46 – 0.483 × 2 45.034
UCL R  D4  R 2.004 × 2 4.008
LCL R  D3  R 0×2 0

15-9) When set at the standard position, Autopitch can throw baseballs toward a batter at an average speed of
60 mph. Autopitch devices are made for both major-and minor-league teams to help them improve their batting
averages. Autopitch executives take samples of 10 Autopitch devices at a time to monitor these devices and to
maintain the highest quality. The average range is 3 mph. Using control-chart techniques, determine control-
chart limits for averages and ranges for Autopitch.
If N = 10, From Table Above: A2 = 0.308, D4 = 1.777, D3 = 0.223
 UCL x  X  A2  R 60 + 0.308 × 3 60.924
LCL x  X  A2  R 60 – 0.308 × 3 59.076
UCL R  D4  R 1.777 × 3 5.331
LCL R  D3  R 0.223 × 3 0.669

15-10) Zipper Products, Inc., produces granola cereal, granola bars, and other natural food products. Its
natural granola cereal is sampled to ensure proper weight. Each sample contains eight boxes of cereal. The
overall average for the samples is 17 ounces. The range is only 0.5 ounce. Determine the upper and lower
control-chart limits for averages for the boxes of cereal.
If N = 8, From Table Above: A2 = 0.373, D4 = 1.864, D3 = 0.136

UCL x  X  A2  R 17 + 0.373 × 0.5 17.1865

LCL x  X  A2  R 17 – 0.373 × 0.5 16.8135
UCL R  D4  R 1.864 × 0.5 0.932
LCL R  D3  R 0.136 × 0.5 0.068

15-11) Small boxes of NutraFlakes cereal are labeled “net weight 10 ounces.” Each hour, random samples of
size n = 4 boxes are weighed to check process control. Five hours of observations yielded the following:

Using these data, construct limits for x- and R- charts. Is the process in control? What other steps should the
QC department follow at this point?
If N = 4, From Table Above: A2 = 0.729, D4 = 2.282, D3 = 0.0

UCL x  X  A2  R 10.04 + 0.729 × 0.52 10.42

 LCL x  X  A2  R 10.04 – 0.729 × 0.52 9.66
UCL R  D4  R 2.282 × 0.52 1.187
LCL R  D3  R 0 × 0.52 0.0

The smallest sample mean is 9.9, the largest 10.2. Both are well within the control limits. Similarly, the
largest sample range is 0.52, also well within the control limits. Hence, we can conclude that the
process is currently within control.
One step the QC department might take would be to increase the sample size to provide a clearer
indication as to both control limits and whether or not the process is in control.
15-12) Sampling four pieces of precision-cut wire (to be used in computer assembly) every hour for the past 24
hours has produced the following results:

Develop appropriate control limits and determine whether there is any cause for concern in the cutting process.

Average length = ´x́ = 2.982 Average range = Ŕ = 1.02375

If N = 4, From Table Above: A2 = 0.729, D4 = 2.282, D3 = 0.0

 UCL x  X  A2  R 2.982 + 0.729 × 1.024 3.728
LCL x  X  A2  R 2.982 – 0.729 × 1.024 2.236
UCL R  D4  R 2.282 × 1.024 2.336
LCL R  D3  R 0 × 1.024 0.0

The smallest sample mean is 2.64, the largest 3.41. Both are well within the control limits. Similarly, the
largest sample range is 1.61, also well within the control limits. Hence, we can conclude that the
process is currently within control.