TreePlan Academic Version 40% Only For Academic U

*all values in $bn COGS is 70%

40%
Demand is $100mn -$14.68 -14.67894

-21.12223 60%
COGS is 80%
50%
PrintTech enters (mkt share is 30%) -$25.42 -25.41776

0 -5.65833233 40%
COGS is 70%
60%
Demand is $200mn $17.54 17.53751

4.650933 60%
COGS is 80%

-$3.94 -3.940121

1.214511 40%
COGS is 70%
40%
Demand is $100mn -$3.94 -3.940121

-12.53118 60%
COGS is 80%
50%
PrintTech does not enter (mkt share is 40%) -$18.26 -18.25855

0 8.087354689 40%
COGS is 70%
60%
Demand is $200mn $39.02 39.01515

21.83304 60%
COGS is 80%

$10.38 10.3783

TreePlan Academic Version, Not Licensed For Commercial Use www.TreePlan.com

Only For Academic Use

-14.68

-25.42

17.54

-3.94

-3.94

-18.26

39.02

10.38

TreePlan Academic Version, Not Licensed For Commercial Use www.TreePlan.com

 ID Name Value Prob
0 0 TreePlan 0 0
2 1
0 2
9 3
10 4
11 5
12 6
13 7
14 8
9
10
11
12
13
14

TreePlan Academic Version, Not Licensed For Commercial Use www.TreePlan.com

Pred Kind NS S1 S2 S3 S4 S5 Row Col
0E 2 1 2 0 0 0 19 1
0E 2 3 4 0 0 0 9 5
0E 2 9 10 0 0 0 29 5
1E 2 5 6 0 0 0 4 9
1E 2 7 8 0 0 0 14 9
3T 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 13
3T 0 0 0 0 0 0 7 13
4T 0 0 0 0 0 0 12 13
4T 0 0 0 0 0 0 17 13
2E 2 11 12 0 0 0 24 9
2E 2 13 14 0 0 0 34 9
9T 0 0 0 0 0 0 22 13
9T 0 0 0 0 0 0 27 13
10 T 0 0 0 0 0 0 32 13
10 T 0 0 0 0 0 0 37 13

TreePlan Academic Version, Not Licensed For Commercial Use www.TreePlan.com

Mark
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1

TreePlan Academic Version, Not Licensed For Commercial Use www.TreePlan.com

*all values in $bn
Scenario 1 Year 0 Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5
Demand $ 100.0 $ 125.0 $ 156.3 $ 195.3 $ 244.1
Sales $ 30.0 $ 37.5 $ 46.9 $ 58.6 $ 73.2
Tax $ 3.6 $ 4.5 $ 5.6 $ 7.0$ 8.8
COGS $ 21.0 $ 26.3 $ 32.8 $ 41.0 $ 51.3
Expense $ 50.0 $ 24.6 $ 30.8 $ 38.4 $ 48.0 $ 60.1
Salvage value $ 5.0
Net Cash flow $ (50.0) $ 5.4 $ 6.8 $ 8.4 $ 10.5 $ 18.2 NPV

Scenario 2 Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5

Demand $ 100.0 $ 125.0 $ 156.3 $ 195.3 $ 244.1
Sales $ 30.0 $ 37.5 $ 46.9 $ 58.6 $ 73.2
Tax $ 2.4 $ 3.0 $ 3.8 $ 4.7 $ 5.9
COGS $ 24.0 $ 30.0 $ 37.5 $ 46.9 $ 58.6
Expense $ 50.0 $ 26.4 $ 33.0 $ 41.3 $ 51.6 $ 64.5
Salvage value $ 5.0
Net Cash flow $ (50.0) $ 3.6 $ 4.5 $ 5.6 $ 7.0 $ 13.8 NPV

Scenario 3 Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5

Demand $ 200.0 $ 250.0 $ 312.5 $ 390.6 $ 488.3
Sales $ 60.0 $ 75.0 $ 93.8 $ 117.2 $ 146.5
Tax $ 7.2 $ 9.0 $ 11.3 $ 14.1 $ 17.6
COGS $ 42.0 $ 52.5 $ 65.6 $ 82.0 $ 102.5
Expense $ 50.0 $ 49.2 $ 61.5 $ 76.9 $ 96.1 $ 120.1
Salvage value $ 5.0
Net Cash flow $ (50.0) $ 10.8 $ 13.5 $ 16.9 $ 21.1 $ 31.4 NPV

Scenario 4 Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5

Demand $ 200.0 $ 250.0 $ 312.5 $ 390.6 $ 488.3
Sales $ 60.0 $ 75.0 $ 93.8 $ 117.2 $ 146.5
Tax $ 4.8 $ 6.0 $ 7.5 $ 9.4$ 11.7
COGS $ 48.0 $ 60.0 $ 75.0 $ 93.8 $ 117.2
Expense $ 50.0 $ 52.8 $ 66.0 $ 82.5 $ 103.1 $ 128.9
Salvage value $ 5.0
Net Cash flow $ (50.0) $ 7.2 $ 9.0 $ 11.3 $ 14.1 $ 22.6 NPV

Scenario 5 Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5

Demand $ 100.0 $ 125.0 $ 156.3 $ 195.3 $ 244.1
Sales $ 40.0 $ 50.0 $ 62.5 $ 78.1 $ 97.7
Tax $ 4.8 $ 6.0 $ 7.5 $ 9.4$ 11.7
COGS $ 28.0 $ 35.0 $ 43.8 $ 54.7 $ 68.4
Expense $ 50.0 $ 32.8 $ 41.0 $ 51.3 $ 64.1 $ 80.1
Salvage value $ 5.0
Net Cash flow $ (50.0) $ 7.2 $ 9.0 $ 11.3 $ 14.1 $ 22.6 NPV
Scenario 6 Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5
Demand $ 100.0 $ 125.0 $ 156.3 $ 195.3 $ 244.1
Sales $ 40.0 $ 50.0 $ 62.5 $ 78.1 $ 97.7
Tax $ 3.2 $ 4.0 $ 5.0 $ 6.3 $ 7.8
COGS $ 32.0 $ 40.0 $ 50.0 $ 62.5 $ 78.1
Expense $ 50.0 $ 35.2 $ 44.0 $ 55.0 $ 68.8 $ 85.9
Salvage value $ 5.0
Net Cash flow $ (50.0) $ 4.8 $ 6.0 $ 7.5 $ 9.4 $ 16.7 NPV

Scenario 7 Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5

Demand $ 200.0 $ 250.0 $ 312.5 $ 390.6 $ 488.3
Sales $ 80.0 $ 100.0 $ 125.0 $ 156.3 $ 195.3
Tax $ 9.6 $ 12.0 $ 15.0 $ 18.8 $ 23.4
COGS $ 56.0 $ 70.0 $ 87.5 $ 109.4 $ 136.7
Expense $ 50.0 $ 65.6 $ 82.0 $ 102.5 $ 128.1 $ 160.2
Salvage value $ 5.0
Net Cash flow $ (50.0) $ 14.4 $ 18.0 $ 22.5 $ 28.1 $ 40.2 NPV

Scenario 8 Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5

Demand $ 200.0 $ 250.0 $ 312.5 $ 390.6 $ 488.3
Sales $ 80.0 $ 100.0 $ 125.0 $ 156.3 $ 195.3
Tax $ 6.4 $ 8.0 $ 10.0 $ 12.5 $ 15.6
COGS $ 64.0 $ 80.0 $ 100.0 $ 125.0 $ 156.3
Expense $ 50.0 $ 70.4 $ 88.0 $ 110.0 $ 137.5 $ 171.9
Salvage value $ 5.0
Net Cash flow $ (50.0) $ 9.6 $ 12.0 $ 15.0 $ 18.8 $ 28.4 NPV
 *all values in $bn
New Project
Demand $ 100 Initial Investment $ 50
Market share 30% Salvage Value $ 5

COGS(of sales) 70% Discount rate 10%

Growth rate (Demand) 25%
Tax Rate 40%
$ (14.68)
Estimated Demand $ 100
Probability of Demand 40%
Demand $ 100
Market share 30% Market share of Trionym(based upon e 40%
Probability of share 50%
COGS(of sales) 80%
COGS(percent of gross sales) 70%
Probability of COGS 40%
$ (25.42)
Expected NPV $ 1.21
Expected PV of future cash flows $ 51.21
Demand $ 200 Profitability Index $ 1.02
Market share 30% Decision Criterai 1 Failed

COGS(of sales) 70%

$ 17.54 100 Mn Sales Probab 40%

Competitor Entry Probab 50%
COGS is 80% Sales Probab 60%
Demand $ 200
Market share 30%

COGS(of sales) 80%

$ (3.94)

Demand $ 100
Market share 40%

COGS(of sales) 70%

$ (3.94)
 Demand $ 100
Market share 40%

COGS(of sales) 80%

$ (18.26)

Demand $ 200
Market share 40%

COGS(of sales) 70%

$ 39.02

Demand $ 200
Market share 40%

COGS(of sales) 80%

$ 10.38
values in $bn

$ 200
60%

30%
50%

80%
60%

Min Base Max

20.00% 40.00% 60.00%
30.00% 50.00% 70.00%
40.00% 60.00% 80.00%
SensIt 1.44, Only For Academic Use
Many Inputs, One Output www.DecisionToolworks.com
Single-Factor Sensitivity Analysis

Date 23-Aug-20 Workbook File.xlsx

Time 9:48 PM Output Cell Cashflow!$O$21

Profitability Index
Corresponding Input Value Output Value Percent
Input Variable Low Output Base Case High Output Low Base High Swing Swing^2
100 Mn Sales Probab 60% 40% 20% $ 0.90 $ 1.02 $1.14 $ 0.24 60.4%
COGS is 80% Sales Probab 80% 60% 40% $ 0.94 $ 1.02 $1.10 $ 0.16 26.9%
Competitor Entry Probab 70% 50% 30% $ 0.97 $ 1.02 $1.08 $ 0.11 12.7%

SensIt 1.44 Academic Version

100 Mn Sales Probab $0.90 $1.14

COGS is 80% Sales Probab $0.94 $1.10

Competitor Entry Probab $0.97 $1.08

$0.88 $0.90 $0.92 $0.94 $0.96 $0.98 $1.00 $1.02 $1.04 $1.06 $1.08 $1.10 $1.12 $1.14 $1.16

Profitability Index

SensIt Academic Version, Not Licensed For Commercial Use www.DecisionToolworks.com

SensIt 1.44, Only For Academic Use
Many Inputs, One Output www.DecisionToolworks.com
Single-Factor Sensitivity Analysis

Date 23-Aug-20 Workbook File.xlsx

Time 9:48 PM Output Cell Cashflow!$O$21

Profitability Index
Corresponding Input Value Input Value as % of Base Output Value
Input Variable Low Output Base Case High Output Low % Base % High % Low Base High Swing
100 Mn Sales Probab 60% 40% 20% 150.0% 100.0% 50.0% $ 0.90 $ 1.02 $1.14 $ 0.24
COGS is 80% Sales Probab 80% 60% 40% 133.3% 100.0% 66.7% $ 0.94 $ 1.02 $1.10 $ 0.16
Competitor Entry Probab 70% 50% 30% 140.0% 100.0% 60.0% $ 0.97 $ 1.02 $1.08 $ 0.11

SensIt 1.44 Academic Version

$1.16

$1.14

$1.12

$1.10

$1.08

$1.06
Profitability Index

$1.04

100 Mn Sales Probab

$1.02
COGS is 80% Sales Probab
Competitor Entry Probab
$1.00

$0.98

$0.96

$0.94

$0.92

$0.90

$0.88
40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% 80.0% 90.0% 100.0% 110.0% 120.0% 130.0% 140.0% 150.0% 160.0%

Input Value as % of Base Case

SensIt Academic Version, Not Licensed For Commercial Use www.DecisionToolworks.com