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3-Chapter Three Inspection Decisions 2010 (Compatibility Mode) PDF
3-Chapter Three Inspection Decisions 2010 (Compatibility Mode) PDF
Inspection Decisions
© A.K.S. JARDINE
Reliability Improvement
through Inspection Decisions
© A.K.S. JARDINE
Maintenance Optimization
© A.K.S. JARDINE 3
Inspection Problems
© A.K.S. JARDINE 4
Inspection Problems
System Failures
Decreasing
system
failures
Component 2
Component 1
Component 3
Component 5
Component 4 Increasing
inspection
frequency
Inspections &
Minor
Maintenance
© A.K.S. JARDINE 5
Examples of equipment subject to regular
inspections – PAM participants
•?
•?
•?
© A.K.S. JARDINE 6
Examples of equipment subject to regular
inspections
© A.K.S. JARDINE 8
Inspection Frequency to Minimize the Total Downtime per Unit
Time of Buses at an Urban Transit Authority
(Section 3.3.5, page 108)
© A.K.S. JARDINE 9
Montreal’s Transit Commission’s Bus
Inspection Policy
Inspection Type
Km (1000) “A” “B” “C” “D”
5 X
10 X
15 X Where:
20 X Ri = No. of type i
25 X inspections / Total No. of
30 X inspections i = A, B, D, or
35 X D
40 X
45 X
50 X
55 X
60 X
65 X
70 X
75 X
80 X
Total 8 4 3 1 Σ = 16
R 0.5 0.25 0.1875 0.0625 Σ = 1.0
© A.K.S. JARDINE 10
Mean Distance to Failure versus
Inspection Interval
6000
3000
2000
© A.K.S. JARDINE 11
Downtime As a Function of the Inspection
Frequency
3.5 repair
3 inspection
2.5 total
Downtime
2
(% of total
bus-hours/
year) 1.5
0.5
0
4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000
Interval Between Inspections (km)
Your
Protective
Device
© A.K.S. JARDINE 13
From: Moubray. J.M., Reliability - centred Maintenance II,
1999, page 172
© A.K.S. JARDINE 15
Examples of Protective Devices: PAM
program participants
© A.K.S. JARDINE 16
Maximizing Availability (Section 3.4, page 110)
Inspect Inspect
Ti Ti Tr
ti ti
0 0
Cycle 1 Cycle 2
Good Failed
Cycle Cycle
Result:
ti 1 2 3 4 5 6
A(ti) 0.8000 0.8905 0.9173 0.9047 0.8366 0.7371
© A.K.S. JARDINE 18
Inspection Interval vs. Availability
ti
% Availability
20 f(t) = density function of the time to failure
Optimal
10 of the equipment
Interval
0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 Ti , Tr , and ti have been defined in the
previous slide
Inspection Interval (Months) In this case, Ti = 0.25 month and Tr = 0.5
month
© A.K.S. JARDINE 19
F.F. Interval vs. Availability:
Moubray (Horton) Model
I = 2(1-A)M
Where:
A = Availability
M = MTBF
I = Failure Finding Interval
• MTBF = 10 years
• FFI = 10% of MTBF of 10 years = 1 year
© A.K.S. JARDINE 22
Example for FFI (Failure Finding Interval) for a
Protective Device (Section 3.4.6, Page 115)
© A.K.S. JARDINE 23
Answer
102
Interval (Weeks) Availability (%) 100
98
1 99.9 96
94
92
Availability (%)
5 99.5 90
88
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
10 99.0
Inspection Interval (Weeks)
15 98.5
21 98.0
54 95.0
104 90.0
© A.K.S. JARDINE 24
When to Apply FFI?
No consequence Disaster
Protected system X X
Protective device X X
• Hidden failure of an operating device has immediate consequence
Operating device X X
C-More Consortium Meeting, April 29, 2008 27
Structure of FFI Optimizer
© A.K.S. JARDINE
The FFI Software
© A.K.S. JARDINE
Optimising Condition Based Maintenance
(CBM) (Section 3.5, page 115)
© A.K.S. JARDINE 31
RCM Methodology Logic
© A.K.S. JARDINE 32
Condition-Based Maintenance
© A.K.S. JARDINE 33
Condition Monitoring: An Analogy
HEART FAILURE
EQUIPMENT FAILURE
Hazard or Risk = f (Age) + f (Risk factors)
Risk
Riskfactors:
factors:
••Oil
Cholesterol
Analysis (Fe,
levelCu, Al,
• Cr,
Blood
Pb…..etc.)
pressure
••Vibration
Smoking (Velocity and
• Acceleration)
Lifestyle
••Thermography
Levels of protein
• Visual
Constituent
Inspection
…………………
Homocysteine
…………………
© A.K.S. JARDINE 34
Real world research
Managing Risk: A CBM Optimization Tool
© A.K.S. JARDINE 35
Condition Monitoring via Warning Limits
• Simple to
understand
• Limitations: Alarm > 300ppm
– Which
Warning > 200ppm
measurements?
– Optimal limits?
Normal < 200ppm
– Effect of Age?
– Predictions?
• CBM optimization
extends and
WorkingAge
enhances the Control
Chart technique
© A.K.S. JARDINE 36
EXAKT Optimal Decision –
A New “Control Chart”
© A.K.S. JARDINE 37
Irving Pulp and Paper
© A.K.S. JARDINE 38
EXAKT status today @ Irving Pulp & Paper
© A.K.S. JARDINE 40
Estimated Hazard Rate at Failure
Age
Hazard PLOT
Hazard PHM
Age
© A.K.S. JARDINE
Optimal Policy - Optimal Hazard Level
Age
COST PLOT Replace at
failure only
Cost/unit time
minimal cost
optimal
hazard Hazard
© A.K.S. JARDINE 43
Optimizing CBM Decisions: EXAKT
Three Keys:
• Hazard
• Transition Probabilities
• Economics
© A.K.S. JARDINE 44
From Data to Risk Model
β −1
β t γ 1 z1 ( t ) + ...+ γ n z n ( t )
HAZARD (t ) = e
η η
Failures/op.hour Contribution of
Failure/flying hour condition information
Contribution of
Failures/km. to hazard
age to hazard
Failures/tonne
Failures/cycle
0.483
Etc… 1.483 t
= e 0.0518 Fe +1.867 Al + 0.01183 Mg
148790 148790
© A.K.S. JARDINE 46
How does data model hazard?
Sample History History consists of:
•Beginning time
•Inspection results
•Ending time and reason
Age Effect
EQUIPMENT FAILURE
47
Combine Data From All Histories
β −1
β t
exp γ z ( t ) + ... + γ z ( t )
HAZARD ( t ) = η η
{11 n n }
1.523
2.523 t
= exp {0.2293* Pb +0.4151* Si}
3402 3402
© A.K.S. JARDINE 48
Step 2: Model for Covariate Evolution
Sample
Lead History
(Pb)
Moderate
Probability
Small
Covariate Bands
Probability
Moderate
Probability
High
Probability
49
Step 2 (Cont.): Transition Probabilities
© A.K.S. JARDINE 50
Transition Probabilities
Inspection Interval = 30 days
VEL #1A
Age 0 0 0.1 0.15 0.22 Above
to 180 to to to to
(Days) 0.1 0.15 0.22 0.37 0.37
Very Smooth
0 to 0.1 0.575373 0.224181 0.145161 0.040554 0.014731
Smooth
0.1 to 0.15 0.205868 0.249818 0.330898 0.137414 0.076002
Rough
0.15 to 0.22 0.055426 0.137583 0.37788 0.229398 0.199714
Very Rough
0.22 to 0.37 0.012852 0.047422 0.190398 0.24338 0.50699
Failure
Above 0.37 0.00048 0.002696 0.017039 0.052114 0.927672
PLUS
Covariate
Evolution
AND
© A.K.S. JARDINE 53
Condition-Based Maintenance
See: www.omdec.com
© A.K.S. JARDINE 54
EXAKT Procedures Window
© A.K.S. JARDINE 55
Oil Analysis Data
© A.K.S. JARDINE 56
Oil Analysis Events Data
© A.K.S. JARDINE 57
Summary of PHM Parameters
© A.K.S. JARDINE 58
Summary of PHM Parameters
© A.K.S. JARDINE 59
Oil Analysis Decision
© A.K.S. JARDINE 60
Decision Model
© A.K.S. JARDINE 61
Vibration Monitoring Data
© A.K.S. JARDINE 62
Vibration Analysis Events Data
© A.K.S. JARDINE 63
Transition Probability Matrix
Inspection Interval = 30 days
VEL #1A
Age 0 0 0.1 0.15 0.22 Above
to 180 to to to to
(Days) 0.1 0.15 0.22 0.37 0.37
Very Smooth
0 to 0.1 0.575373 0.224181 0.145161 0.040554 0.014731
Smooth
0.1 to 0.15 0.205868 0.249818 0.330898 0.137414 0.076002
Rough
0.15 to 0.22 0.055426 0.137583 0.37788 0.229398 0.199714
Very Rough
0.22 to 0.37 0.012852 0.047422 0.190398 0.24338 0.50699
Failure
Above 0.37 0.00048 0.002696 0.017039 0.052114 0.927672
© A.K.S. JARDINE 65
Warning Limits in ‘ppm’
Al < 20 20 - 40 > 40
Cr <10 10 - 20 >20
Si <15 15 - 25 >25
© A.K.S. JARDINE 66
Measurements & Decision
In Operation
© A.K.S. JARDINE 67
Cardinal River Coals
Oil Analysis data from 50 Wheel Motors
– Twelve covariates
measured
– Covariates used: Iron
and Sediment
– Estimated Saving in
Maintenance Costs:
22% for cost ratio 3:1
© A.K.S. JARDINE 68
Sensitivity of Optimal Policy to Cost Ratio
© A.K.S. JARDINE 69
Recent Developments in CBM Optimization
© A.K.S. JARDINE 71
Diesel Engines: Failure Modes
© A.K.S. JARDINE 72
Simultaneous decisions for each failure mode of a
repairable system
© A.K.S. JARDINE 73
#2. Conditional Density Function &
Remaining Useful Life
© A.K.S. JARDINE 74
#3. Probability of failure between
inspections
© A.K.S. JARDINE 75
#4. New Criterion: Availability
• Preventive downtime: tp
• Failure downtime: tf
© A.K.S. JARDINE 76
# 5. Cost and Availability Combined
© A.K.S. JARDINE 77
Summary: Principle of CBM Optimization
Age Data
Maintenance
Condition- Decision
Monitoring Data
Software engine
Intermediate result
Remaining Engineering
Final result Useful Life Judgment
© A.K.S. JARDINE 78
CBM OPTIMIZATION
Executive Summaries
© A.K.S. JARDINE
Campbell Soup Company
Inspection at
WorkingAge = 175 days
© A.K.S. JARDINE 81
Hong Kong Mass Transit Railway
Corporation
© A.K.S. JARDINE 82
Sasol Plant
Analysis of Warman-Pump
Bearings Vibration Data
– Total 8 pumps each with two bearings
(16 bearings) analyzed
– 12 vibration covariates identified
Using <EXAKT>:
– 2 covariates significant
– Annual replacement cost savings= 42 %
Feedback:
– Model results found realistic by Sasol
plant
– Significant vibration covariates identified Vlok, et al, "Optimal Component Replacement
by <EXAKT> are agreed as a major Decisions using Vibration Monitoring and the PHM",
JORS, 2002.
problem
© A.K.S. JARDINE 83
Open Pit Mining Operation
– Covariates used:
Iron, Aluminum,
Magnesium
– Saving in
Maintenance Costs:
25%
– Average replacement
time increase: 13%
– Warranty limit could
be increased
© A.K.S. JARDINE 84
Nuclear Generating Station
Hydrodyne seals
prevent leakage of
heavy water during
fuelling operation:
Seal Leak Rate data
from 4 reactors
Jardine, A.K.S., Kahn, K., Banjevic, D., Wiseman, M. and Lin, D., “An Optimized Policy for the Interpretation of Inspection Data
from a CBM Program at a Nuclear Reactor Station”, Proceedings, COMADEM, Sweden August 27-29, 2003
© A.K.S. JARDINE 85
Maintenance and Diagnostic Data
© A.K.S. JARDINE 87
CBM Optimization Studies: A summary
© A.K.S. JARDINE 88
Additional CBM References
1. www.mie.utoronto.ca/cmore (For
information about the CBM research
activities at the University of Toronto)
© A.K.S. JARDINE 89
EXAKT Tutorials
Learn the fundamentals of EXAKT by going through the EXAKT
tutorial for single items, i.e.,components or systems as a whole:
www.omdec.com/articles/p_exaktTutorial.html
www.omdec.com/articles/p_ExaktTutorialComplexItems.html
© A.K.S. JARDINE 90
Maintenance Management
© A.K.S. JARDINE 91
Inspection Decisions
© A.K.S. JARDINE 92