Sustainability of Indian Economy Post Lockdown

(CORONA PANDEMIC)

Perspective shared by CS Dhananjay Jitesh Pandey, currently working as Company Secretary for
Blue Planet Environmental Solutions India Private Limited

Just how big an impact can a pandemic like COVID-19 have on the global economy? Economic
Times Newspaper dated Jan 08, 2020, had already declared that the Indian Economy was at its
worst in 42 Years and needed an honest look. This was before the Corona Hit and back then
hardly a few cases of patients were confirmed of being tested positive with the COVID. The
situation has now been exasperated by the demand, supply and liquidity shocks that COVID-19
has wreaked. It wasn't long when India too was engulfed by the deadly virus and had started
feeling the ripple effect of the virus throughout the economy which was inevitable anyway.

It is said that “Ounce of Prevention is worth a pound of cure”. While the world knew that there
is no sure shot cure for the Virus, so they had to take steps to prevent it from spreading and so
did India by implementing the nationwide Lockdown of 21 days. The idea behind the Lockdown
was to embed Social distancing amongst the Indian Population until the spread of the virus is
neutralized and eventually stopped. As the nation is fighting the COVID crisis with every effort
that can be made both materially and emotionally, while being at home to maintain social
distancing, it can be said that, so far, the goal behind the lockdown is in process of being achieved.
This success, however, is proving to be very costly. The Lockdown had the repercussions as
everyone thought and the challenges & hardships posed as such are being worked on to
overcome the same. A Human Economic Financial (HEF) Crisis is now prevailing in the Indian
Economy which is unlike the Great Recession of 2008. While the Centre has further extended the
Lockdown till May 3, 2020, we must realize that this the said extension can cripple the Indian
Economy badly if the right steps are not taken and implemented to Sustain the Indian Economy
once the Lockdown is over, when already the GDP has Plunged to the new lowest.

As of today, every Indian is grappling with the challenges and uncertainties that have been guised
before each of them. In times of crisis like these, when the faith of Humanity is being tested, it
can be said that the entire country is in unity and at a consensus with what is being done to fight
the pandemic. The Societies that stand together are more resilient in the time of crisis like these,
like India. The resilient and motivated Indian population is now prepared to digest and adapt to
any kind of preventive measure. We already know how the Indian Economy has been affected
sector after sector in the ongoing crisis created by the Corona Pandemic. The entire nation at this
conjuncture looks at the person who is at the helm of affairs and can effectuate an economic
turnaround and is already making headway for the same.

Indians should stop expecting that things will come back to normal. However, it is needless to
despair though. They should start adapting themselves to the current situation which is the new
normal. While the entire country is eagerly waiting for the announcement of a comprehensive
revival package that can help the Economy to Recover and bring it back to normal, which will for
sure take 10-12 months, I am hereby putting together through this research paper some
anticipated steps of the Present Government for India’s way forward for ensuring Economic
sustainability.
1. Post Mortem analysis: Should be done for Exact Quantification of Losses. Obtain more
accurate data on Infections and mortality rate Restarting requires better data on
infection levels, as well as measures to protect workers returning to work, such as
temperature checks of workers (though this will not catch non-symptomatic carriers),
uncrowded transport, personal protection equipment, adequate distancing at work, as
well as measures to identify and contain new infections.

2. Continue with the Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions (NPI) measures more

aggressively: Social Distancing, rigorous quarantines, Boosting Stronger immune system
naturally, Greater Focus on Mental Health, Contact Tracing, Disinfection of Environments,
Establishment of Rapid Testing Units, Containment centers, Use of Masks, Sanitizers,
Handwashing, Develop Home Testing KITS, Education on Prevention and Cure.

3. Business Continuity: The immediate priority, of course, is to suppress the spread of the
pandemic through widespread testing, rigorous quarantines, and social distancing. Once
the offices, Warehouses, Factories, Shops and Establishment and other working places
reopen, the step should be taken by the Management of Office Bearers and companies
occupying and enjoying a particular office space to make sure of the following:

• Use of Sanitizers: Hand Sanitizers to be placed at every entry and exit and it should
be made sure that every person entering or exiting the office and Business
Premises is sanitized. Sanitizers should be used even to clean and sanitize all such
things, places, surfaces that get in regular touch with a person.

• Mandatory Handwashing after every 2-3 hours: Handwashing should be treated

as a fun activity and should even be preached about especially to the labor and
uneducated class of workers.

• Series of Check Points should be established for testing and checking

• In case somebody is found infectious, then apart from the holding steps, steps
should also be taken to trace the persons to whom the infected person would have
directly contacted, creating a risk of spreading through the infected person.

• Holding areas should be established and marked as such to make sure that any
red flags are kept separately in isolation.

• Virtual Office concept already exists in India. It is high time that the same should
be implemented in true letter and spirit. Working from Home has opened up
opportunities to explore various video conferencing platforms like Cisco Webex,
Zoom, Slack, Google, etc. Office Functions should be divided into essential and
non-essential functions based on the theory of actual presence in the Physical
office. Only, those Office functions, which require the staff to come physically to
 the office should be called upon to work from the physical office and rest all should
be asked to work from home. While using the Virtual Office services through IT
platforms, it should be made sure that data security & Privacy and Cyber Security
Should not be compromised. IT department and professional will have a huge role
to play in the coming days.

• Employee Morale & Motivation: HR Functions should be emphasized, in the

sense that they should not be considered some Payroll and Leave Processing
functions only. HR should establish a sense of being important amongst all the
employees of the organization. Not all employees, who had been in isolation while
living alone and away from the family, will perform with the same enthusiasm as
they were before the lockdown. Their mental status should be studied and
accordingly dialogue should be made with such employees them through regular
training efforts and communication to bring them out of mental trauma or
depression if any. An organization should be empathetic and compassionate
towards their employees. HR will have to establish clear communication and
dialogue with the workforce to tell them the financial problems and any other
problems that the organization would be facing and about how the workforce and
employees can join hands to fight with the same. Salary deferments should be
done. Pay cuts should be introduced especially for highly paid executives and top-
level employees.

For all the above COVID safety-related measures a Standard Operating Procedure
should be issued and circulated. Also, fun and educating exercises should be
introduced to keep the workforce educated and informed about COVID.

Sales Team: Business sales will have to look for new ways of selling. This will be a
chance to implement new techniques and strategies. The sales team must not use
hard selling techniques to sell the products. Sales calls should be attended through
different Video Conf. Platforms.

Agility: Organizations and their employees, all will have to work in harmony and
stay united to fight the crisis. This would be the right time for companies to
introduce new products. Everybody will have to become agile in the situation.
Employees, management, labor force, everybody will have to double up their
efforts.

Gig Workers: Gig Workers or Contract labor & Alternative work arrangements
should be used as much as possible and appreciated as well.

4. Government intervention: Sending money directly to households of poor families and

the daily wage earners and the small businesses which have been badly affected. The Poor
should be supported more and steps to be taken for them to bring out of poverty, and
this is the right thing to do as a humane nation. This should be done while observing the
Budgetary constraints though.
5. Special Financial relief Packages for small Businesses and Sectors that have been badly
affected and steps to ensure that the allocated funds or the declared amount of support
or relief reaches those in actual need.

6. Public-Private Partnership in Supply Chain: Promote Localization of Supply Chain.

Emphasize, Support and Promote Hyper Local Delivery & distribution of Essentials and for
Sectors which are strategically important through Organizations like Swiggy, LALAMOVE,
Dunzo, Zomato.

7. Promote Digitalization: While understanding and investing more in the cloud, data and
cybersecurity steps should be taken to give a real push on Implementation of the policy
of Work from home through digital means even for important Physical meetings while
properly assessing the pros and cons.

8. Shifting from a Debt-Driven Economy to Cash Driven Economy: Financial Leverage has
its benefits, but living on the edge is not appreciated. Over-leveraged companies are the
most vulnerable ones to such times of crisis. Also, the Banks are going to be on a tighter
leash. The Bank Sanction letter won't matter now, only the amount in your account will
matter. Banks are going to revise the sanctions and make drastic reductions if they see
credit risk. Cash is going to be the king in the coming days. Alternative funding methods
should be used.

9. Manufacturing Sectors will play a vital role: Restarting Manufacturing is going be difficult
as the Labor force will be forced to choose between Fear of Life or Livelihood. To manage
this the Labor has to be incentivized in return, Management has to guarantee the security
of life, food and stay if required. Imparting training and education to develop a sense of
self-confidence amongst the workforce and trust in management. Staggering shifts
should be introduced, interaction should be avoided, Rosters on duty timing should be
made. Overlapping of shifts should not be there. Employees of essential goods and
services sector must be educated about their role in the upbringing of the economy in
these times of crisis, about how they would be playing the most important part.

10. Banking & Insurance Sector to bear the Torch. With the ongoing COVID Crisis and the
rising expenses for managing everything, while being on the track of recovery, it will be
like being hit with a double whammy for the Corporate Sector. Along with the
Government and the other sectors, two major sectors i.e the Banking and Insurance
sector will have to be on their toes to handle the ill effects of the pandemic.

➢ Central Bank Corporate Paper Purchase Program: Like it has been done in the past
by Central Banks of other world economies, RBI too should come forward to
purchase Corporate Debt paper.

➢ Government Spending will spike for sure, but the same has to be in a phased
manner and such spending should be first made easily accessible for utilization by
those badly affected sectors, which will play a vital role in the economic recovery
and are the pillars for India’s growth.
 ➢ World Bank’s support and such financial support by other International Financial
Institutions would be imperative.

➢ Government Aid for small businesses.

➢ Promote Public-Private Partnership in the Banking sector

➢ NBFC’s should be regulated if required stop issuing new licenses

➢ Moratorium by RBI to financial institutions against Dividend Payments., so that

they build capital reserves.

➢ Get Rid of Complicated Tax Rules and simplify Investment rules

➢ Cutting Back, less important expenditures or delaying the same as part of a Fiscal
Measure

➢ Insurers need to cover the financial and health losses due to COVID crisis.

➢ New and Key Learnings should be properly studied for implementation in the right
manner.

➢ Introduction of Unemployment Insurance

11. Corporate Affairs: Continue introducing schemes such as “Companies Fresh Start
Scheme” to promote ease of doing business in India. Corporates and Business entities
should willfully stick together and help each other when it comes to enforcement of
Agreements and time frame for clearing of pending Bills. Instead of being self-centered
businesses should come forward to mutually discuss, to find solutions. Still, in cases of
dispute, they should get their contracts and agreements checked for interpretation of the
Force Majeure clause which is creating a buzz these days. The business world and every
person comprised therein should focus on getting solutions instead of bringing up issues
and fighting in problems. The government is already working on extending the deadlines
for various regulatory compliances.

12. Equity Market: Participation of Mutual funds to invest in equity should be increased.
Raising funds form the Public should be encouraged.

Present Influenza’s impact can be entirely related to the “Spanish Flu of 1918”. Lessons learned
from the same and other past lessons can be implemented here in the present situation which
in turn will make the impact live for a shorter time. Of course, mitigating the present pandemic
will require cooperation and planning by all levels of government and the private sector. The
Lessons learned from the Present Pandemic crisis should also be used for future preparedness
for any such extreme events worse than the present.