Yhat

X Actual(Y) (Mx+c)
Sesonality Forecasted(
Seasonality absolute square of Trend(Slope *
+ Trend) Bias error errors time period)
1 15,682 23,721.78 0.56 13,284.20 2,397.80 2397.804 5749461.7657
2 26,105 25,100.73 0.97 24,347.71 1,757.29 1757.288 3088061.7868
3 43,872 26,479.69 1.6 42,367.50 1,504.50 1504.499 2263516.71
4 24,999 27,858.64 0.88 24,515.61 483.39 483.3945 233670.2142
5 17,431 29,237.60 0.56 16,373.05 1,057.95 1057.946 1119248.9921
6 30,323 30,616.55 0.97 29,698.05 624.95 624.9451 390556.34493
7 50,561 31,995.51 1.6 51,192.81 -631.81 631.8094 399183.13279
8 29,406 33,374.46 0.88 29,369.53 36.47 36.47494 1330.4213338
9 20,162 34,753.41 0.56 19,461.91 700.09 700.0878 490122.87829
10 32,969 36,132.37 0.97 35,048.40 -2,079.40 2079.398 4323896.2259
11 53,231 37,511.32 1.6 60,018.12 -6,787.12 6787.118 46064965.955
12 33,576 38,890.28 0.88 34,223.44 -647.44 647.4446 419184.49484
13 22,448 40,269.23 0.56 22,550.77 -102.77 102.7701 10561.697081
14 42,875 41,648.19 0.97 40,398.74 2,476.26 2476.259 6131857.8339
15 70,035 43,027.14 1.6 68,843.43 1,191.57 1191.574 1419848.8778
16 31,348 44,406.10 0.88 39,077.36 -7,729.36 7729.364 59743069.663
17 25,577 45,785.05 0.56 25,639.63 -62.63 62.628 3922.266384

average 34063.94 1888.011 8240533.5621

Forecast Real Bias Absolute Value

Executive 30529.00 25577.00 -4952.00 4952.00
Opinion

Square of
Errors to be
minimised 25790.31 25577.00 -213.31 213.31
using
solver

Combinatio 28159.65 25577.00

-2582.65 2582.65
n
 MAE Mean
(mean Average
average squared
Slope Intercept SSNL error) Error
1378.954 22342.83 4.00 1888.01 8240534
m a

seasonlity
18930.75 34063.94 0.56
33068 34063.94 0.97
54424.75 34063.94 1.60
29832.25 34063.94 0.88

Accuracy

0.837794

0.991729

0.908285
 X Actual(Y) Yhat Sesonality Forecasted( Trend(Slo
Seasonality absolute square of pe * time
+ Trend) Bias error errors period) Slope
1 15,682 24,598.98 0.606401 14,916.86 765.14 765.14 585439.2 1036.502
2 26,105 25,635.49 1.018183 26,101.61 3.39 3.394089 11.51984 m
3 43,872 26,671.99 1.640812 43,763.73 108.27 108.272 11722.83
4 24,999 27,708.49 0.919931 25,489.89 -490.89 490.8856 240968.7
5 17,431 28,744.99 0.606401 17,431.01 -0.01 0.006013 3.616E-05
6 30,323 29,781.49 1.018183 30,323.00 -0.00 0.000229 5.236E-08
7 50,561 30,818.00 1.640812 50,566.55 -5.55 5.55092 30.81271
8 29,406 31,854.50 0.919931 29,303.93 102.07 102.0742 10419.14
9 20,162 32,891.00 0.606401 19,945.15 216.85 216.848 47023.04
10 32,969 33,927.50 1.018183 34,544.39 -1,575.39 1575.395 2481868
11 53,231 34,964.01 1.640812 57,369.37 -4,138.37 4138.374 17126138 18930.75
12 33,576 36,000.51 0.919931 33,117.97 458.03 458.034 209795.1 33068
13 22,448 37,037.01 0.606401 22,459.30 -11.30 11.29804 127.6458 54424.75
14 42,875 38,073.51 1.018183 38,765.79 4,109.21 4109.211 16885616 29832.25
15 70,035 39,110.01 1.640812 64,172.20 5,862.80 5862.803 34372462
16 31,348 40,146.52 0.919931 36,932.01 -5,584.01 5584.006 31181126
17 27,450 41,183.02 0.606401 24,973.44 2,476.56 2476.556 6133329
18
19
20

average 34063.94 1464.456 6447047

 MAE Mean
(mean Average
average squared
Intercept SSNL error) Error
23562.48 4.00 1464.46 6447047
a

34063.94 0.56
34063.94 0.97
34063.94 1.60
34063.94 0.88
 X Actual(Y) Yhat Sesonality Forecasted( Trend(Slo
Seasonality absolute square of pe * time
+ Trend) Bias error errors period) Slope
1 15,682 23,664.00 0.620124 14,674.61 1,007.39 1007.39 1014835 1120.31
2 26,105 24,784.31 1.052832 26,093.71 11.29 11.29431 127.5615 m
3 43,872 25,904.62 1.671409 43,297.23 574.77 574.7721 330362.9
4 24,999 27,024.93 0.876111 23,676.85 1,322.15 1322.154 1748090
5 17,431 28,145.24 0.620124 17,453.53 -22.53 22.53408 507.7849
6 30,323 29,265.55 1.052832 30,811.70 -488.70 488.698 238825.7
7 50,561 30,385.86 1.671409 50,787.22 -226.22 226.2166 51173.97
8 29,406 31,506.17 0.876111 27,602.91 1,803.09 1803.088 3251126
9 20,162 32,626.48 0.620124 20,232.46 -70.46 70.45835 4964.379
10 32,969 33,746.79 1.052832 35,529.69 -2,560.69 2560.69 6557135
11 53,231 34,867.10 1.671409 58,277.21 -5,046.21 5046.205 25464188 18930.75
12 33,576 35,987.41 0.876111 31,528.98 2,047.02 2047.022 4190299 33068
13 22,448 37,107.72 0.620124 23,011.38 -563.38 563.3826 317400 54424.75
14 42,875 38,228.03 1.052832 40,247.68 2,627.32 2627.317 6902797 29832.25
15 70,035 39,348.34 1.671409 65,767.19 4,267.81 4267.806 18214168
16 31,348 40,468.65 0.876111 35,455.04 -4,107.04 4107.044 16867808
17 27,450 41,588.96 0.620124 25,790.31 1,659.69 1659.693 2754581
18
19
20

average 34063.94 1671.63 5322113

 MAE Mean
(mean Average
average squared
Intercept SSNL error) Error
22543.69 4.00 1671.63 5322113
a

34063.94 0.56
34063.94 0.97
34063.94 1.60
34063.94 0.88