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Jamna Auto
Vijay Sarthy T S
Research Analyst
+9122 6626 6569
vijaysarthy@rathi.com
Mayank Agarwal
mayanakagarwal@rathi.com
14 February 2018
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Jamna Auto Industries Auto
14 February 2018
Key data JMNA IN /JMNA.BO It aims to bring its breakeven volume level to 33% in the next three years (from 50% now) through operational
efficiencies and market diversification. We believe that, in the next three years, the margin will expand 200bps from
52-week high / low `91 / `36 FY17’ss 14.1%.
FY17
Sensex / Nifty 34156 / 10501
Backed by a widening distribution network, more tie-ups with retailers and garage personnel, OEM growth and
3-m average volumes $5.2m aftermarket exports, we expect revenue to clock a 15% CAGR over FY17-20 to `19.64bn. Because of this growth
Market cap `32bn / $493m and cost efficiencies, we expect the EBITDA margin to expand from the current 12.3% to 15% by FY20.
Shares outstanding
Accordingly, we expect earnings to register an 18% CAGR to `1.73bn leading to an EPS of `4.35.
398m
Valuation. The stock trades at 21x FY19e EPS and 18x FY20e EPS. We initiate coverage with a Buy, and a price
target of `96, assigning 22x FY20e EPS. Risks. Steep decline in M&H CV growth, delay in expanding its dealer
network in the replacement market .
Shareholding (%) Dec’17 Sep’17 Jun’17
Promoters 47.9 47.9 47.9 Financials ((YE Mar)) FY16 FY17 FY18e FY19e FY20e
- of which Pledged 7.3 8.8 9.6 Sales (` m) 12,558 12,995 15,304 17,212 19,644
Free float 52.1 52.1 52.1 Net profit (` m) 715 1,047 988 1,489 1,732
- Foreign inst. 6.0 4.5 5.4 EPS (`) 1.8 2.6 2.5 3.7 4.3
- Domestic inst. 5.7 5.8 3.8 PE (x) 43.3 30.0 31.8 21.1 18.1
- Public 40 41.8 42.9 EV / EBITDA (x) 19.3 17.4 16.5 12.0 10.2
PBV (x) 13.0 9.4 7.9 6.3 5.1
RoE (%) 33.0 36.4 27.0 33.2 31.1
RoCE (%) 34.6 35.5 25.1 30.3 31.1
Dividend yield (%) 1.1 0.9 1.0 1.6 1.8
Net debt / equity (x) 0.0 0.1 0.2 -0.1 -0.2
Source: Company, Anand Rathi Research
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Quick Glance – Financials and Valuations
Income statement (` m) Balance sheet (` m)
Year-end: Mar FY16 FY17 FY18e FY19e FY20e Year-end: Mar FY16 FY17 FY18e FY19e FY20e
Net revenue (` m) 12,558 12,995 15,304 17,212 19,644 Share capital 397 398 398 398 398
Growth (%) 14.7 3.5 17.8 12.5 14.1 Net worth 2,425 3,331 3,992 4,990 6,151
Direct costs 8,867 9,022 10,825 11,761 13,423 Total debt 98 623 836 0 0
SG&A 2,059 2,142 2,523 2,871 3,277 Minority interest 0 0 0 0 0
EBITDA 1 632
1,632 1 830
1,830 1 957
1,957 2 579
2,579 2 944
2,944 DTL / (assets) 57 -32
32 - - -
EBITDA margin (%) 13.0 14.1 12.8 15.0 15.0 Capital employed 2,580 3,921 4,828 4,991 6,151
- Depreciation 452 478 551 582 599 Net tangible assets 2,100 2,832 2,988 2,607 2,207
Other income 83 239 160 130 130 Net intangible assets 6 8 7 7 7
Interest expenses 203 148 155 - - Goodwill
Extraordinaryy items -10 - - - - CWIP (tang. & intang.) 655 199 - - -
PBT 1,050 1,444 1,411 2,128 2,475 Investments (strategic)
Effective tax rate (%) 32 27 30 30 30 Investments (financial) - 5 5 5 5
+ Associates / (minorities) - - - - - Current assets (ex cash) 1,998 2,364 3,546 3,827 4,240
Net Income 715 1,047 988 1,489 1,732 Cash 80 145 28 366 1,492
Adjusted income 725 1,047 988 1,489 1,732 Current liabilities 2,259 1,632 1,745 1,821 1,799
WANS 398 398 398 398 398 Working capital -261 732 1 801
1,801 2 007
2,007 2 441
2,441
FDEPS (` / sh) 1.8 2.6 2.5 3.7 4.35 Capital deployed 2,580 3,921 4,828 4,991 6,151
Public
R SJauhar Vice-chairman and Executive director 40.4%
Particulars FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17
Revenue ((net of excise)) 2,780
, 4,704
, 4,593
, 6,131
, 9,033
, 11,197
, 9,802
, 8,333
, 10,951
, 12,558
, 12,995
,
EBIDTA 250 608 295 771 1,065 1,037 855 482 945 1,632 1,830
EBIDTAmargin (%) 9 13 6 13 12 9 9 6 9 13 14
PAT 63 170 -126 188 372 422 277 -26 294 725 1,047
PAT margin (%) 2 4 -3 3 4 4 3 0 3 6 8
N worthh
Net 638 1,037 95 143 320 322 289 259 311 452 478
Net debt 1,573 1,584 200 628 745 716 566 223 634 1,180 1,353
Depreciation 38 83 1,237 1,256 1,344 1,561 1,745 1,816 1,964 2,425 3,331
Capital employed 1,637 2,794 2,710 368 1,101 1,275 1,077 748 156 18 477
EBIT 212 525 2 849
2,849 2 444
2,444 2 697
2,697 3 125
3,125 3 162
3,162 2 891
2,891 2 387
2,387 2 580
2,580 3 921
3,921
RoE 10 20 -11 15 29 29 17 -1 16 33 36
RoCE 33 63 6 18 20 20 16 7 15 35 36
Source: Company
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Global manufacturers, in brief
Leading global spring manufacturers
Leaf-spring capacity
The automotive leaf-springs market, globally, is expected to Manufacturer Base Country
(tonnes)
touch $12.8bn in 2021, according to Stratview Research. The
p
automotive composite leaf-spring
p g market is a niche one but Rassini Mexico 250,000
has significant growth potential in coming years. It is forecast
to register an attractive 10% CAGR in the next five years, to Hendrickson Canada & Mexico 216,000
$72.3m in 2022
Jamna Auto Industries. India 210,000
The global
Th l b l leaf-spring
l f i sector has
h evolved
l d over time
i with
ih
latest technologies, and manufacturers have diversified their NHK Springs Japan & Thailand 150,000
product range (Rassini: coil springs and brakes; NHK:
seating units and components units) Dong Feng China 105,000
Rassini, the global leader in capacity, even at 90%
utilisation,has very little operations in after-market sales (91% FAW China 100,000
to OEM, 2% to the after-market)
MBHA Spain 60,000
JJamna
m is i the
th third largest
l r t ini the
th world
rld and
d is
i an uncontested
t t d
leader in the home market Toyo Spring India 54,000*
Rassini, at~90% utilisation, has a healthy, 19.5%, EBITDA margin (91% of its revenue arises from global OEMs, 2% from the
after-market, 1% from trailers (Brazil) and 6% from others, and enjoys higher return ratios (a 31% RoE and a 16% RoCE)
JJamna, with
i h lower
l asset utilisation
ili i andd higher
hi h overheads,
h d hash a smaller
ll EBITDA margin i than
h Rassini.
R i i We
W believe
b li that
h iti would
ld be
b
able to reach the latter’s margin levels as volumes increase (with the increasing proportion of parabolic springs), and the
proportion of the replacement market increases.
Loose Leaves
Replacement
15.0%
Parabolic Spring
Leaf Springs
76.1%
Source: Company
Segment -wise
After-market
exports
0 8%
0.8%
After-market India
16.1%
Lift Axle
Jamna’s units at dispersed locations (near OEM units) are a Plant Location Purpose Strategic clients
long-term competitive advantage over any manufacturer.
After-market, SML Isuzu
g
Lower logistics costs and p
promptp deliveryy are the key;
y; thus,, a u a Nagar
Yamuna aga Leaf
ea sp
springs
gs
Jamna scores higher than any other manufacturer.
Malanpur Vecv, Man Trucks, Force Motors
The new plant in Hosur is to serve the export market and
multinationals such as Daimler and Volvo. Ashok Leyland, Bharat Benz, Renault,
Maraimalai Nagar Leaf springs
Nissan, Ford India
Pune Lift axles & R&D centre Tata Motors, Mahindra Force Motors
Ashok
A h k Leyland,
L l d Kamaz
K V t
Vectra,
Hosur Leaf springs
Leyland Nissan, after-market exports
Jamna is the sole supplier of springs to Daimler, Volvo and Home market leaf-springs
MAN Trucks and Buses. To Tata Motors and Ashok Leyland Others
2.0%
it supplies
pp respectively
p y ~73% and 90% of their consumption.
p
Toyo Spring
With a 71% market share, it is the undisputed leader and, 21.0%
given its size, location advantage and quality products, we
expect it to grow in line with OEMs.
Sonii Auto
S A t
We believe domestic commercial vehicle sales will clock a 7% 6.0%
CAGR in the next two years, driven by the continuing Jamna Auto
71.0%
vibrancy of the hub-and-spoke model. Thus, we expect
higher-ton
g volumes to increase,, addingg to demand for
parabolic springs. We expect Jamna’s domestic revenue to
Source: Company
register a 10% CAGR over FY17-20, to `14.36bn.
Gross margins% 25 27 29 13 16 15 NA 28 25
EBIDTA margins% 6 9 13 4 8 7 NA 5 5
Source: Company
Source: Company
Dealers
In the last two years, Jamna increased its supplies and has successfully catered to demand in the replacement market
It has always been ahead in product development and improvement. Other brands copy changes introduced by Jamna
Post-GST, Jamna reduced the MRP by 5-7% (per our checks, local brands have not lowered prices, both MRP and to
garage owners/retailers)
To improve relationships with mechanics/garage-owners, Jamna had started a scratch-card scheme, through which
mechanics
h i get incentives
i i byb scratching
hi a card
d and
d scanning
i the
h attached
h d code
d for
f every loose
l l f
leaf-spring
i sold
ld
Retailers
R t il prefer
Retailers f unregulated
l t d manufacturers,
f t who
h offer
ff higher
hi h margins
i than
th those
th given
i b Jamna
by J
20-25% of customers prefer Jamna’s products despite higher pricing as, for them, quality is of prime importance.
Truckers, typically, are customers in this case
Jamna’s dealers do not offer credit to retailers; other unregulated dealers provide it and, thus, retailers prefer to sell other
brand-named products
Retailers do not have fixed selling prices of those products purchased from unregulated players. Prices vary according to
knowledge of customers and their bargaining,
bargaining whereas Jamna
Jamna’ss prices and,
and thus,
thus margins are fixed
Garage owners
Jamna and Toyo have their own brands and the quality of their products is better. Jamna offers lower margins to retailers
and garage owners
ASL, Unique are others in the replacement market
Many manufacturers sell springs under different brand-names to avoid competitive pricing by retailers. Many mechanics
prefer such products to avoid bargaining by customers. While there are customers who prefer only Jamna’s springs, driven
by quality perception and past experience, price sensitiveness in the market plays a pivotal role in choosing a brand, per our
channel check
Prices of products or unregulated manufacturers are 10-20% less expensive than those of Jamna, the key difference in
purchaser preference
Parabolic springs are used at the front of a vehicle but are less preferred by truckers due to higher cost. These springs have
a longer life but if broken are costlier to replace
In winter, demand for springs is 10-20% higher. In the cold they contract, then expand due to heat, increasing chances of
b k
breakage
replacement growth and cost efficiencies, and thus the 12,000 20.0
10,000
EBITDA margin to expand from 12.3% now to 15% by 8,000 15.0
FY20 6,000 10.0
4,000
Return ratios would come at a healthy 25-28%, driven 2,000
5.0
turnover
FY15
FY16
FY17
FY18e
FY19e
FY20e
Net revenues Growth(RHS)
Source: Company
8.0 20
1 500
1,500
6.0 15
1,000
4.0 10
500 5
2.0
0 0.0 0
Y15
Y16
Y17
FY118e
FY119e
FY220e
FY115
FY116
FY117
FY188e
FY199e
FY200e
FY
FY
FY
EBIDTA EBIDTA Margin(RHS) RoE RoCE - After tax RoIC - After tax
Source: Company Source: Company
The company has been generating free cash in the past, Increasing operating and free-cash flows
except in FY17, due to lower operating cash-flows (` m)
2,000
-500
FY15
FY16
FY17
FY18e
FY19e
FY20e
Free cash Flow Operating cash
cash-flow
flow
Source: Company
-0.3 20
0
Y15
Y16
Y17
FY18e
FY19e
FY220e
-0.4
0.4
FY
FY
FY
FY15
FY16
FY17
FY18e
FY19e
FY20e
Jan-14
Jan-15
Jan-16
Jan-17
Jan-18
Apr-13
Jul-13
Oct-13
Apr-14
Jul-14
Oct-14
Apr-15
Jul-15
Oct-15
Apr-16
Jul-16
Oct-16
Apr-17
Jul-17
Oct-17
EPS. We initiate coverage with a Buy and a price target
of `96, assigning 22x FY20e EPS Source: Company
Jul-14
Jul-15
Jul-16
Jul-17
Oct-13
Oct-14
Oct-15
Oct-16
Oct-17
Apr-13
Apr-14
Apr-15
Apr-16
Apr-17
Jan-13
Jan-14
Jan-15
Jan-16
Jan-17
Jan-18
Source: Company
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