PACE-310, Survey in Peace and Conflict Studies

Week 1: Interest-Based Conflict Analysis/Resolution:

1. Social-Order Theorists vs. Social-Justice Theorists

2. One-Party Conflict Resolution

GRIT (Graduated & Reciprocated Initiatives in
Tension Reduction) [Confidence-building Measures]

3. Interests: a) fears, wants, values, desires needs, concerns, scares

resources, etc. b) calculated in terms of Individual Utility Maximization

4. Individual Utility Maximization

(Utilitarianism, Instrumental Reason, Rational Actor Theory, Min-Max
Theory, Human Needs Theory, Expected Utility, Discounted Utility,
Preference Schedules)

5. Game Theory: a) Prisoners' Dilemma, b) zero-sum/ win-lose games

b) non-zero-sum/win-win games
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Social-Order Theorists:
Conflict is negative because social harmony, law and
order are the highest social values.

Social change must be well ordered and measured

without conflict.

Social-Justice Theorists:
Conflict is sometimes positive and sometimes negative.

Every society has social injustices. Sometimes conflict

is needed to overcome these injustices. If conducted in a
positive manner, conflict is both necessary and positive.
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One-Party Conflict Resolution

(One-Party Conflict Resolution is Single-Use.
It cannot be used to decide ethical issues.)

GRIT
Graduated & Reciprocated Initiatives in Tension Reduction
[Confidence-building Measures]
1. Announce intention to reduce hostilities

2. Announce one (or a series) of positive initiatives

3. Promptly carry out announced initiatives

4. Invite (but do not demand) other side reciprocate

5. Repeat 2-4 with a wide range of positive initiatives regardless

of whether conflict partner reciprocates

6. If conflict partner reacts aggressively, retaliate but do not

escalate

(One-Party Conflict Resolution is a Single-Use.

It cannot be used to decide ethical issues.)
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GRIT
Graduated & Reciprocated Initiatives in Tension Reduction
[Confidence-building Measures]

Unilateral Soviet Initiatives in Nuclear Arms Control, 1985-1989

April Gorbachev announces temporary moratorium on INF missile

1985 deployment
August Gorbachev imposes unilateral nuclear test ban to last until end
1985 of year
January Gorbachev extends test band to end of March
1986
February Soviets announce "reasonable sufficiency" principle
1986
March Gorbachev extends test ban to August
1986
August Gorbachev extends test ban to end of year
1986
January Gorbachev extends test ban to until nest US nuclear test (late
1987 February)
May 1987 Soviets promulgate "defensive defense" doctrine
February Soviets agree to withdraw from Afghanistan
1988
December Gorbachev announces demobilization of 500,000 troops and
1988 removal of 50,000 troops from Eastern Europe
January Soviets announce cuts in defense budget
1989
January Soviets say that short-range nuclear forces will be withdrawn
1989 from Eastern Europe with departing troops
January At CSCE, Shevardnadze promises to provide data to the West
1989 concerning Soviet froces
June 1989 Soviets begin to withdraw from Mongolia
November Gorbachev announces "major" force cuts in Nordic region
1989
10 Nov Fall of Berlin Wall
1989
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(Interest-based Conflict Resolution is Dual-Use.

It can be used for both making ethical decisions and resolving conflicts)

Interests:
a) fears, wants, values, desires needs, concerns, scarce resources, etc.

b) calculated in terms of Individual Utility Maximization

MY INTERESTS YOUR INTERESTS

Individual Utility Maximization

(Utilitarianism, Instrumental Reason, Rational Actor Theory, Min-Max
Theory, Human Needs Theory, Expected Utility, Discounted Utility,
Preference Schedules)

Unlimited Explanatory Power

An Interests-Based Analysis / Utility Maximization Calculation always

explains every human behavior.

Neiman Marcus Vs. Ross "Dress for Less"

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Game Theory
A formal mathematical way to calculate the
probability of cooperation when:

1) there are tangible costs and benefits arising

out of two or more options, and

2) there is restricted knowledge of the intentions

of the other players.

The game can be played either as a single

event/decision or as a reiterated series of
events/decisions. The probability of cooperation
increases with an increase on the number of
iterations.

1. Zero-Sum or Win-Lose Games: Poker

2. Non-Zero Sum or Win-Win Games: Economic

exchange

Information:

1. Games with Perfect Information: Chess

2. Games with Imperfect Information: Poker

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Prisoners' Dilemma

Prisoner A Prisoner A
Quiet Confess
Prisoner B
Quiet -1, -1 -10, 0

Prisoner B
Confess 0, -10 -5, -5

1. Dominant Strategy

2. Common Good

(Interest-based Conflict Resolution is Dual-Use.

It can be used for both making ethical decisions and resolving conflicts)