Advantage 1 is ECS:

Current US posture in the Japan alliance is to defend the Senkakus from aggression
now—BUT, sovereignty stances remain neutral
Daishi Abe 20, staff writer for Nikkei Asia (“US pledges to help Japan with 'unprecedented' Chinese
incursions”, Nikkei Asian Review, July 2020, https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/International-relations/US-
China-tensions/US-pledges-to-help-Japan-with-unprecedented-Chinese-incursions)

The U.S. is fully committed to help Tokyo handle China's repeated incursions into waters
TOKYO --

surrounding the Senkaku Islands,

AND
Schneider stressed that Washington will continue working closely with Tokyo regardless of what it decides or what equipment it purchases.

Senkaku support makes war inevitable—lack of clarity on when to intervene AND

emboldened Japan make it increasingly likely
Mira Rapp Hooper 12, a Fellow in the Asia Program at the Center for Strategic and International
Studies and the Director of CSIS’s Maritime Transparency Initiative (“An Ominous Pledge”, The Diplomat,
September 2012, https://thediplomat.com/2012/09/uncharted-waters

AND
the U.S. commitment to Japan may not be required during crises to reassure this important ally .

US-China skirmishes escalate and go nuclear—historical and political tensions

overcome deterrence
Michael O’Hanlon & Gregory B. Poling 20. Michael O’Hanlon is a senior fellow and director of research
in Foreign Policy at the Brookings Institution, where he specializes in U.S. defense strategy, the use of
military force, and American national security policy. He is the author of The Senkaku Paradox: Risking
Great Power War Over Small Stakes. Gregory B. Poling is senior fellow for Southeast Asia and director of
the Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative at CSIS. He oversees research on U.S. foreign policy in the Asia
Pacific, with a focus on the maritime domain and the countries of Southeast Asia. His research interests
include the South China Sea disputes, democratization in Southeast Asia, and Asian multilateralism.
“Rocks, Reefs, and Nuclear War”, written 1-14-2020, published on CSIS, https://amti.csis.org/rocks-
reefs-and-nuclear-war/. Rez

As the 2020s begin, the world can breathe a collective sigh of relief that the U nited States has so far
avoided a major military crisis with China .

AND
It would be nonsensical to risk nuclear war over remote rocks and reefs, but that does not make it
impossible.
It’s a tinderbox—makes draw-in inevitable
Brad Lendon et al. 20, Senior producer for CNN Digital Worldwide in Hong Kong, Junko Ogura, Kaori
Enjoji, Shawn Deng and Katie Hunt, “Why this Japan-China island dispute could be Asia's next military
flashpoint” https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/20/asia/china-japan-islands-dispute-hnk-intl/index.html,
Rez.
While China is engaged in a tense border standoff with India high in the Himalayas,

AND
Choong wrote. CNN's Junko Ogura, Kaori Enjoji, Shawn Deng and Katie Hunt contributed to this report.

Our scenario is true—Chinese opposition to US involvement logically proves removing

commitments can prevent conflict
Tongfi Kim 16, Assistant Professor of International Affairs at Vesalius College and Senior Researcher at
KF-VUB Korea Chair (“US Alliance Obligations in the Disputes in the East and South China Seas”, Peace
Research Institute, 2016, https://www.hsfk.de/en/publications/publication-search/publication/us-
alliance-obligations-in-the-disputes-in-the-east-and-south-china-seas/

Understandably, China opposes the involvement of the United States in the Senkaku/ Diaoyu dispute

AND
Beijing has avoided US counter-moves through tactics focused on “gray zone,” which are aggressive but “remain below the
level that usually triggers conventional military retaliation” (Roy 2015).

No alt causes—alliance commitments are the most likely scenario for war AND
outweighs other Asia conflicts
Ryan Hass 17, Fellow, Foreign Policy, John L. Thornton China Center, Center for East Asia Policy Studies,
The Brookings Institution (“Risk of U.S.-China confrontation in the East China Sea”, Brookings, December
2017, https://www.brookings.edu/opinions/risk-of-u-s-china-confrontation-in-the-east-china-sea/)

Recent press reporting of continuing Chinese construction activities at its reclaimed islands in the South
China Sea has revived focus on maritime issues.

AND
there is non-negligible risk of an unintended collision in air or at sea that could trigger rapid escalation
and quickly implicate U.S. alliance commitments.

Thus the plan: The United States federal government should reduce its alliance
commitments with Japan by excluding East China Sea disputes as well as the Kuril
islands as a condition under which its defense pact can be activated.
Plan solves and prevents entrapment
Ted Galen Carpenter 20, a senior fellow in security studies at the Cato Institute and a contributing
editor to the National Interest, is the author of 12 books and more than 850 articles on international
affairs (“Washington Needs to Jettison Its Commitment to Defend the Senkakus”, CATO Institute,
January 2020, https://www.cato.org/publications/commentary/washington-needs-jettison-its-
commitment-defend-senkakus)

U.S. leaders even need to re‐evaluate some aspects of Washington’s bilateral mutual defense treaty with
Japan.

AND
A continuation of the security relationship with Tokyo should be contingent upon the elimination of
any U.S. commitment to back Japan’s claim of the Senkakus.

AND, encourages burden-sharing which paves the way for strategic autonomy
Elena Atanassova-Cornelis & Yoichiro Sato 19, Senior Lecturer in International Relations at University
of Antwerp & Dean of International Cooperation and Research at Ritsumeikan Asia Pacific University,
The International Spectator, Volume 54, Issue 4, 2019]
To some extent, Washington benefits from this uncertainty, which it has sought to maintain.

AND
, in the long term, the US vision may have to converge with that of Japan .

The idea of defending the Senkakus is reflective of false discursive constructions

produced from the alliance—only eliminating the condition can change the formation
of discourse in Asia
Yida Zhai 18, an Assistant Professor in the School of International and Public Affairs at Shanghai Jiao
Tong University (“Discourse power: sovereignty claims over the Diaoyu/Senkaku Islands”, Journal of
Territory, Politics, Governance, November 2018,
https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/21622671.2019.1687324?casa_token=035m5u-
3uNIAAAAA:NepRPILrPJknt8QQiVTmvjVmXxUbBr-bxIxI-iduIxRxsDRJPFWNrBllOKFl0TqLkac8rqiqV8gd)

China’s rise has caused concerns over its influence on regional security and peace in some

AND
Japan made use of the issue to introduce new National Defense Program Guidelines and upgrade its naval and coastguard capability (Wang, 2017).

Advantage 2 is Kuril Islands

Kurils remain unresolved- ongoing struggle that hinges on strategic utility of the Kuril
islands.
Simran Walia, 5-20-2019, (Research Scholar at JNU, M.Phil in Japanese Studies, (East Asian Studies) )
"Japan-Russia dilemma over the territorial dispute," ORF, https://www.orfonline.org/research/japan-
russia-dilemma-over-territorial-dispute-50973/ //LFP
Relations between Russia and Japan have strained mainly due to the issue of obstinate territorial dispute
between the two nations over the Southern Kuril islands.

AND
Despite certain level of hope, whether Putin and Abe are able to carry out the negotiations into a full swing and to a successful end remains to
be observed carefully.

Russia controls the Kuril islands-they are important resource wise and strategically-
the Pivot to Asia has sharpened tensions in the region- US presence makes escalation
more likely
Alvernia, 2018
[Gary, Writer for WSWS, Russia-Japan Dispute Over Kurils Reflects Mounting Tensions in North East Asia,
https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2018/04/05/kuri-a05.html]

The Kuril Islands are a remote, sparsely populated archipelago, spanning 1,300 kilometres.

AND
Apart from its demands on the Kurils, Japan has escalated its dispute with China over the
Diaoyu/Senkaku Islands in the East China Sea, which has led to dangerous stand-offs involving aircraft
and ships.

US-Japan bilateral ties are the biggest sticking point in negotiations- reducing
obligations resolves Russian fears over us deployment and creates the precondition to
resolving it
Alvernia, 2018
[Gary, Writer for WSWS, Russia-Japan Dispute Over Kurils Reflects Mounting Tensions in North East Asia,
https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2018/04/05/kuri-a05.html]

For its part, Russia has indicated that a necessary pre-condition to re-engage in talks would be for
Japan to reduce its military ties with the US.

AND
Russia’s strengthening of its military in the Far East, as in Europe, only plays directly into the hands of US
and Japanese imperialism as they accelerate their preparations for conflict.

Russia places strategic importance on the Kuril islands- it’s a nuclear stronghold- and
rising tensions make conflict more likely
Kyodo News, 5-9-2018, "Russia plans additional missile defense buildup on Kuril Islands," Kyodo
News+, https://english.kyodonews.net/news/2019/09/590dd4e9b6eb-russia-plans-additional-missile-
defense-buildup-on-kuril-islands.html //LFP
Russia is planning to deploy additional missile systems on two islands in the northern portion of the Kuril

AND
saying it would be difficult to conclude a peace treaty unless Japan explains its future security policy.

Low level conflict with Russia goes nuclear- lower bar for escalation- goes nuclear
Nolan Peterson, 6-3-2020, "Chances of a Nuclear War With Russia Just Went Up — Here's Why,"
Coffee or Die Magazine, https://coffeeordie.com/russian-nukes/ //LFP

Russian President Vladimir Putin

signed an executive order on Tuesday lowering the bar for Russia’s use of
nuclear weapons, authorizing their use against non-nuclear attacks that “threaten the existence” of
Russia or its nuclear forces.

AND
“Russian nuclear strategy relies more on tactical nuclear weapons, some of which potentially could be used if Russia
was losing a conventional war with NATO.”