Presentation by

Manisha Bewtra, AICP, Senior Program Manager Massachusetts Housing Partnership

Peter Forman, President & CEO, South Shore Chamber of Commerce

For the Massachusetts Downtown Summit, October 1, 2018
Session overview
• LOCAL Sharing our personal and professional
experiences of the places where we live
 Melrose - Manisha
 Plymouth – Peter
• REGIONAL The South Shore Chamber’s Housing 2030
Strategy
• STATEWIDE Community and data resources – MHP and
partners
• Discussion, Q&A
LOCAL: Melrose & Plymouth
City: Mayor, Board of Aldermen

28,367 $437,100 $87,712

Melrose 2017 US Melrose Median Value of Melrose Median Household
Census Population Owner-Occupied Home, ACS Income in 2016 dollars,
Estimate 2012-2016 Estimate ACS 2012-2016 Estimate

Town: Manager, Board of Selectmen, Representative Town Meeting

59,885 $333,100 $80,905

Plymouth 2017 US Plymouth Median Value of Plymouth Median Household
Census Population Owner-Occupied Home, ACS Income in 2016 dollars, ACS
Estimate 2012-2016 Estimate 2012-2016 Estimate
LOCAL: Housing market – home sales
Median Home Sales Prices, Adjusted by Inflation
Melrose Median Home Sales Price in 2017 Dollars
Plymouth Median Home Sales Price in 2017 Dollars
$600,000 2005, 2017,
$505,931 $550,000
$500,000
$400,000
$300,000 2005,
$200,000 $435,594 2017,
$340,000
$100,000
$0
1988
1989

1992
1993

1996
1997

2000
2001

2004
2005

2007
2008

2011
2012

2015
2016
1987

1990
1991

1994
1995

1998
1999

2002
2003

2006

2009
2010

2013
2014

2017
Warren Group home sales data, adjusted by regional CPI
Previewing Datatown!
Coming
Soon!

• Coming in November 2018

• Effort to make publically available data, especially housing
data, easily accessible to municipalities
• Complemented by technical assistance provided by MHP’s
Community Assistance team
Change over
85+ years
• Melrose population
peaked in 1970;
recent moderate
resurgence.
• Plymouth growing
since 1970, fastest
growth 1970-1980

U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates Program

When were homes built?
• Melrose: Dominated by Victorian-era homes.
• Plymouth: Construction corresponding w/ pop. growth.

U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 2012-2016, 5-year estimates margin of error
Housing permits since 2000
• Melrose: Construction has been mostly multifamily.
• Plymouth: Construction has been mostly single family.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Annual Building Permit Survey

Owners & renters, types of housing
• Melrose: More mixed, ½+ single family, ~ 1/3 renters
• Plymouth: about ¾ single family homes, homeowners

U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 2012-2016, 5-year estimates

margin of error
Changing age demographics
 1990

U.S. Census Bureau, Decennial Census and American Community Survey

 2000

U.S. Census Bureau, Decennial Census and American Community Survey

 2010

U.S. Census Bureau, Decennial Census and American Community Survey

 2012-2016 ACS

U.S. Census Bureau, Decennial Census and American Community Survey margin of error
Changing age demographics
 1990

U.S. Census Bureau, Decennial Census and American Community Survey

 2000

U.S. Census Bureau, Decennial Census and American Community Survey

 2010

U.S. Census Bureau, Decennial Census and American Community Survey

 2012-2016 ACS

U.S. Census Bureau, Decennial Census and American Community Survey margin of error
Manisha + Melrose
• Moved to Melrose in 2013
• Local accolades and how
realtors sell the community
• Smart growth approach Wikimedia Commons

• Current downtown and

districts near transit
• Walkable,Victorian
character, streetcar suburb
• Housing affordability
Peter + Plymouth
• Massive growth in 1980s-1990s
 Resulting strain on municipal services
 Anti-growth measures
 Slow decline of downtown Visiting New England

• Today
 Placemaking in Pine Hills, Redbrook,
Downtown
 Baby boomers and changing housing
preferences
 High demand for smaller lots/homes
 Housing that supports downtown revitalization
South Shore 2030
• Why did the Chamber focus
on housing?
• What role did data play?
• What types of development
make sense?
• How is the Chamber building
support?
• How can others do this?
• What is the role of
leadership?
About MHP
• Massachusetts Housing Partnership is a quasi-public, nonprofit
agency started in 1985
• Mission: to use private investment to bring more affordable housing
to Massachusetts
ONE Community Center for
Lending
Mortgage Assistance Housing Data
• Over $1B for • First time • Technical • Collect,
over 22,000 homebuyers assistance analyze &
units • Fixed-rate, • 40B program share info for
• Affordable 30-year effective
rental policy
creation
The state of housing in Massachusetts
Housing production has sharply declined despite
increases in population and employment.
Annual Housing Production in Massachusetts by Decade
35,000

30,000

25,000

20,000

15,000

10,000

5,000

0
1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s
Multifamily Single Family

Data from U.S. Census Bureau, Building Permit Surv ey. Note: in this and in all subsequent graphics, multifamily is defined as a structure with 2+ units and permits are as reported by cities
and towns with imputed data by the Census Bureau for communities that fail to report.
 New housing unit s permitted per 1,000
residents, 2016

-
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0

Utah
Idaho
Colorado
South Dakota
South Carolina
Nevada
Delaware
Washington
North Carolina
Texas
Florida
Tennessee

Data from U.S. Census Bureau, 2016 Building Permit Surv ey.
North Dakota
Arizona
Georgia
Oregon
Montana
Iowa
Nebraska
Minnesota
Virginia
Kansas
Wisconsin
Arkansas
Missouri
Louisiana
Alabama
Oklahoma
Maine
New Jersey
housing production in the country.

Wyoming
Kentucky
New Hampshire
Vermont
Maryland
Indiana
California
Massachusetts
Hawaii
New Mexico
Mississippi
Michigan
Alaska
Ohio
81,000 new housing units.

Pennsylvania
Illinois
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Massachusetts now has one of the lowest rates of

From 2010 to 2016 Massachusetts

national av erage

New York
added about 246,000 residents and

Connecticut
353,000 new jobs while permitting only

West Virginia
Rhode Island
A wave of retirements is in
progress and still to come,
though Baby Boomers not
necessarily moving out of
their homes.

Data Source: U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates & American

Community Survey 2011-2015 5-year estimates, MAPC population and
labor force projections for Greater Boston, 2014
We are not
on track to
meet
projected
demand.

Data Sources: Metropolitan Area Planning Council & U.S. Census Bureau Housing Permits Survey
We’re losing skilled workers to other U.S. regions that are building
more housing and have lower housing costs.
Building Permit Rates of the 20 Largest Innovation Economy Metros Most of the metros
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2016 Building Permits Survey and 2016 Population Estimates
with the largest
12 innovation
10 Building Permits economies are
8
permitting a lot
6
more housing per
4
2
capita than we
0 are.

Competitor metros
that permitted
more than 6 units
per thousand
residents saw net
Net metro-to-metro migration, 2015-2016
gains in population
1.7%
0.8% 0.7% 0.8% 0.6%
1.1% 1.0% from domestic
0.4%
0.0%
migration.
-0.3% -0.3% -0.3% -0.4% -0.4%
-0.5% -0.7% -1.0% -0.9% -0.4%
-1.1%
Economic research is crystal clear: adequate housing
supply is a prerequisite for future job growth

Recipe for Growth, MHP 2008

Massachusetts is a national outlier for requiring a
supermajority vote to amend, modify, or adopt zoning
ordinances or bylaws.
• Massachusetts is one of only 10
states in the country that requires a
supermajority to change local
zoning. It is the only state in New
England with a supermajority
requirement.
• This causes problems when local
governments want to change
zoning.
• Especially in Towns, where Town
Meeting must approve zoning
amendments, the 2/3 voting
threshold can be a barrier to new
zoning that would allow for
increased housing production.
Most cities and towns in metro Boston have “downzoned” so many
of the most attractive single-family neighborhoods could not be built
again today at the same density
The average lot size for
each new single family
homes in metro Boston is
now more than an acre,
or the size of an NFL
football field.

The homes above – located in a

desirable, walkable neighborhood in
Newton – have assessed values ranging
from $554,000 to $731,000. None of these
homes could be built again today under
current zoning.
Massachusetts has 351 independent zoning
jurisdictions, with a median population of 10,000
In metropolitan
Washington, DC, for Massachusetts
example, the Fairfax cities and towns
that are equivalent
County Board of in population to a
Supervisors makes land use single zoning
jurisdiction in Fairfax
decisions for nearly a County, VA

million Virginia residents. In

Massachusetts, permitting
decisions for that same
metro area population
would be made by 38
cities and towns serving a
median of less than 17,000
residents each.
Massachusetts’ housing costs are among the highest in the nation

Massachusetts: 3rd highest home values

Massachusetts: 8th highest rents

Source: 2016 ACS 1-Year Estimates, U.S. Census Bureau

Nearly twenty percent of households are severely cost-burdened
and not receiving housing assistance.

Extremely Very Low Low Near Above

Low Income Income Income Median Median
Income Income

Source: CHAS/HUD, 2010-2014

Get started with these online resources!
Housing Toolbox
Datatown –
coming soon!
DataCommon

https://www.housingtoolbox.org/ https://datacommon.mapc.org/
Programs and resources
Regional Planning Agencies
MHP Community Assistance
Technical Assistance

Give us a call!

DHCD
EOHED
MA Downtown Initiative

Urban Land Institute +

MassDevelopment Technical
Assistance Panels (ULI TAP)
https://boston.uli.org/uli-in-action/taps/
CHAPA Municipal Engagement
https://www.chapa.org/
Discussion + Q&A

• What makes a strong economy?

• What makes a vibrant community?
• What role does local leadership play?
• What challenges are you facing locally?
• Other questions and comments?
Contact us
Manisha Bewtra, AICP, Senior Program Manager
mbewtra@mhp.net | 857-317-8583
www.mhp.net | www.housingtoolbox.org

Peter Forman, President & CEO

pforman@southshorechamber.org
781-421-3913
www.southshorechamber.org | www.southshore2030.com