8/28/2019 The Carbon Brief Profile: Japan | Carbon Brief

In the third article of a new series on how key emitters are

responding to climate change, Carbon Brief looks at Japan’s
gradually falling emissions and the ongoing legacy of the
Fukushima nuclear disaster.

Japan is the world’s third largest

Carbon Brief’s country
pro le series
South Africa
(https://www.carbonbrief.org/the-
carbon-brief-pro le-south-
africa)
Japan
(https://www.carbonbrief.org/carbon-
brief-pro le-japan)
Turkey
(https://www.carbonbrief.org/carbon-
brief-pro le-turkey)
Brazil
(https://www.carbonbrief.org/the-
carbon-brief-pro le-brazil)
India
(https://www.carbonbrief.org/the-
carbon-brief-pro le-india)
Indonesia
(https://www.carbonbrief.org/the-
carbon-brief-pro le-
indonesia)

(https://databank.worldbank.org/data/download/GDP.pdf) economy and seventh largest

(http://dataservices.gfz-potsdam.de/pik/showshort.php?id=escidoc:2959897) emitter of
greenhouse gases (GHGs). Its plans for decarbonisation were signi cantly set back after
the 2011 Fukushima nuclear disaster (https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-the-legacy-
of-the-fukushima-nuclear-disaster) led it to move away from nuclear power and expand
the use of fossil fuels.

Japan’s government now plans to increase both renewable and nuclear power. However,
it also intends to build signi cant numbers of new coal power plants. Japan has pledged
a 26% reduction in GHG emissions below 2013 levels by 2030.

Politics Coal
Paris pledge Oil and gas
Energy Climate laws
Nuclear Impacts and adaptation
Renewables
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26%
largegy
CO2
Non-CO2
have
Fukushima
Japan
and
energy
Wind,
helped
persector*
by source
capita in 2015
Data: BP,

F gases
*Some
EDGAR,
has
gassolar
p coal plants.
number of new
nuclear
to reduce
disaster
itsWorld
Potsdam,
pledged
consumption.
power replaced
total
asBank.
a power.
nuclear
& geothermal
Hydrodata only available to 2015.
Nitrous oxide (N20)
Nuclear
Methane (CH4)
coal, oil

C
A
R
Coal
Land-use (LULUCF)**
Bsource and methodology of the underlying data.
**The sudden switches in LULUCF emissions from a source to a sink and then back again are due to changes in the

O
***Includes industrial process emissions, agriculture & waste.
N
For more detail, see note at end of article.
B
R
I
E
F

P
R
O
F
I
L
E

About Tableau
Undo

Graphic by Tom Prater for Carbon Brief.

Politics in Japan

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8/28/2019 The Carbon Brief Profile: Japan | Carbon Brief

Japan has been a signi cant regional power for centuries, in particular since the early
1900s. It emerged as a major economic player in the decades following the second world
war. Only the US and China now have larger economies
(https://databank.worldbank.org/data/download/GDP.pdf).

Japan is a parliamentary democracy, but the conservative Liberal Democratic Party

(LDP (https://www.britannica.com/topic/Liberal-Democratic-Party-of-Japan)) has
governed almost continuously since it was formed in 1955. Its current leader, Shinzō
Abe, has been prime minister since 2012 and in 2016 won
(https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/10/japan-snap-elections-
171018100325909.html) a snap general election. The next general election is set to take
place by October 2021.

In 1997, Japan hosted the third formal meeting of the UNFCCC (United Nations
Framework Convention on Climate Change) in Kyoto, its former capital. Here, it helped
broker the adoption of the Kyoto Protocol (https://unfccc.int/process/the-kyoto-
protocol), the rst international treaty to reduce emissions, which took into account
(https://www.carbonbrief.org/two-degrees-the-history-of-climate-changes-speed-
limit) countries’ historical contribution to climate change and ability to implement
policies. However, Japan’s own climate efforts have been criticised
(https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/apr/17/can-japans-climate-policy-
get-back-on-track-after-fukushima) as inadequate.

(https://www.carbonbrief.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/kyoto-protocol-1997.jpg)
Plenary session in the main hall of the Kyoto International Conference Center at COP3, in 1997. Credit: UN Photo/Frank Leather.

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After the 2011 Fukushima disaster (https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-the-legacy-

of-the-fukushima-nuclear-disaster), in which a tsunami devastated a nuclear power
plant, all of Japan’s nuclear reactors were switched off. Political and public attention
(https://spfusa.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/Sofer-Climate-Politics-in-Japan.pdf)
turned to energy saving and alternative sources of power. Japan was also recovering
from the damage of the major earthquake
(https://www.theatlantic.com/photo/2016/03/5-years-since-the-2011-great-east-japan-
earthquake/473211/) and tsunami, which cost 16,000 lives. This led to ambitious
climate policy becoming less of a focus
(https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/apr/17/can-japans-climate-policy-
get-back-on-track-after-fukushima).

Polls show (http://www.pewglobal.org/2015/11/05/1-concern-about-climate-change-

and-its-consequences/) 45% of Japanese people consider climate change to be a very
serious problem, in the middle of the range for the world’s major economies. Concerns
are highest (http://www.pewglobal.org/2015/11/05/1-concern-about-climate-change-
and-its-consequences/) about severe weather, over droughts, extreme heat and sea level
rise.

Japan’s policies for promoting coal- red power are leading to severe criticism
(https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20171121/p2a/00m/0na/019000c) internationally,
according to a February 2018 report (https://www.mofa.go.jp/ les/000335212.pdf) from
the foreign ministry’s of cial advisory panel on climate change
(https://www.mofa.go.jp/ic/ch/page22e_000830.html). It said:

“If Japan continues to pursue its polic[ies] incompatible with the global decarbonising efforts,
Japan may be left behind, not only in [the] energy and environment sector, but also may
hinder its industrial competitiveness in the global market, which now pays serious attention
to carbon risks.”

Paris pledge
Japan sits within the “Umbrella group (https://www.carbonbrief.org/interactive-the-
negotiating-alliances-at-the-paris-climate-conference)” at the international climate
talks overseen by the UNFCCC. It is considered to be among the most developed
countries and, therefore, required to take the lead on tackling climate change. It is
known as an “Annex I/II (https://unfccc.int/parties-observers)” country in UN parlance.

Japan’s GHG emissions stood at 1.2bn tonnes of CO2 equivalent (GtCO2e) in 2015,
according to data (https://www.pik-potsdam.de/paris-reality-check/primap-
hist/#id=jpn&entity=kyotoghgar4) compiled by the Potsdam Institute for Climate
Impact Research (PIK (https://www.pik-potsdam.de/pik-frontpage)). Note that this
includes emissions from land use, land-use change, and forestry (LULUCF
(https://unfccc.int/index.php/topics/land-use/workstreams/land-use--land-use-
change-and-forestry-lulucf/background)).

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© Mapbox © OpenStreetMap © DigitalGlobe

This was equal to 2.6% of global emissions that year, slightly less than Brazil
(https://www.carbonbrief.org/the-carbon-brief-pro le-brazil) and Indonesia
(https://www.carbonbrief.org/indonesian-pledge-suggests-no-increase-in-emissions-
to-2030), but higher than Iran and Germany
(https://www.carbonbrief.org/tag/germany).

Japan’s emissions rose progressively between 2009 and 2013, as the country turned off
its nuclear plants and moved to fossil fuels following the Fukushima accident
(https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-the-legacy-of-the-fukushima-nuclear-disaster).
Emissions fell slightly from 2014 to 2015 and have been at since
(http://webcast.bp.com/economics/statsreview/07/registration/).

Japan’s climate pledge

(http://www4.unfccc.int/submissions/INDC/Published%20Documents/Japan/1/20150717_Japan%27s%20
(“nationally determined contribution”, or NDC (https://www.carbonbrief.org/paris-
2015-tracking-country-climate-pledges)) targets (https://www.carbonbrief.org/japans-
2030-climate-pledge-leaves-room-for-coal-expansion) a 26% reduction in GHG
emissions below 2013 levels by 2030, including LULUCF. This was submitted
(https://www.carbonbrief.org/paris-2015-tracking-country-climate-pledges) to the
UNFCCC in the lead up to the Paris climate conference
(https://www.carbonbrief.org/category/policy/paris-2015) in 2015.

The pledge would reduce Japan’s emissions to around 1GtCO2e. The choice of 2013 as
baseline year is unusually late (https://www.carbonbrief.org/japans-2030-climate-
pledge-leaves-room-for-coal-expansion), though Japan noted
(http://www4.unfccc.int/submissions/INDC/Published%20Documents/Japan/1/20150717_Japan%27s%20
it means a 25% reduction on 2005 levels – a similar ambition to the now-frozen US
pledge.
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Japan’s NDC argues its target is consistent with long-term pathways keeping global
temperatures below 2C. However, it represents only an 18% reduction on 1990 levels,
well below the targets of some other developed countries. In contrast, the EU has
pledged (https://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/strategies/2030_en) at least a 40%
reduction in 1990-level emissions by 2030.

(https://www.carbonbrief.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/shinzo-abe-new-york-2014.jpg)
Japanese prime minister Shinzō Abe gives a speech at the UN summit on climate change in New York, in September 2014. Credit:
Newscom/Alamy Stock Photo.

Climate Action Tracker (CAT (https://climateactiontracker.org/)) analysis rates Japan’s

pledge (https://climateactiontracker.org/countries/japan/) as “highly insuf cient”,
meaning its promised emissions reductions are outside its “fair share
(https://climateactiontracker.org/about/)” to be in line with the Paris Agreement. The
pledge is not at all consistent with holding warming below 2C, let alone 1.5C, says CAT,
and warming would reach 3-4C by 2100 if all government targets were akin to Japan’s.

Japan also intends to allow the use of LULUCF “credits” to meet its 2030 target, says
CAT. This means improved land managements and re-vegetation would generate a
credit which can be used to offset total emissions. This will effectively reduce the
ambition of the target to 15% below 1990 levels, says CAT.

Meanwhile, coal plant construction plans (https://www.carbonbrief.org/mapped-

worlds-coal-power-plants) “pose a serious risk to the government’s future mitigation
efforts”, it says.

Japan’s per capita emissions stood at

(https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1zOapX2G2erOyrQjeQoaTUqENZVQRlP6I8tbn1CF3lVo/edit#gid
10.2tCO2e in 2015. Japan’s NDC says its per capita emissions, along with progress in
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energy ef ciency, show Japan is already “at the leading level among developed
countries”. However, the UK and EU’s average per capita emissions were far lower in
2015, both at 7.7tCO2e. Japan’s NDC said it expects per capita emissions and energy
ef ciency to “improve” by around 20 to 40% by 2030.

It is worth noting that Japan’s population is already falling

(https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.POP.TOTL?locations=JP) and this trend is
expected to continue
(https://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/Download/Probabilistic/Population/) over the coming
decades. Per capita emissions will, therefore, fall less rapidly than overall emissions
reductions.

Energy policy
Around 90% (https://www.kikonet.org/wp/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/Japans-
climate-and-energy-policy-and-coal-power-status_F.pdf) of Japan’s total GHG
emissions come from energy-related activities, making these the most critical factor for
its climate policy.

Energy policy in Japan lies under its Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI
(http://www.meti.go.jp/english/)). This produces “basic energy plans” every three years
(although the last revision
(http://www.enecho.meti.go.jp/en/category/others/basic_plan/pdf/4th_strategic_energy_plan.pdf)
was made in 2014). A revision process for the new fth plan has been ongoing since
mid-2017 and is expected to be nalised by the end of summer 2018. [Update 3/7/2018:
Japan today approved (https://uk.reuters.com/article/japan-energy/japan-govt-signs-
off-on-energy-policy-keeping-source-targets-unchanged-idUKL4N1TZ3D9) its fth
basic energy plan. This left source targets unchanged from the draft plan discussed
here.]

Last month (https://uk.reuters.com/article/japan-energy/japan-backs-role-of-nuclear-

power-in-2030-energy-plan-idUKL3N1SN0TE), Japan released a draft version
(http://www.enecho.meti.go.jp/committee/council/basic_policy_subcommittee/027/pdf/027_006.pdf)
(in Japanese) of the plan. This outlined the intended mix of power sources for 2030,
repeating plans rst adopted
(http://www.meti.go.jp/english/press/2015/pdf/0716_01a.pdf) in 2015.

The electricity mix should include a 20-22% share of nuclear

(http://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/AJ201805140045.html) and 22-24% share of
renewables by 2030, it says. Coal should provide 26% of power and natural gas 27%. The
plan also intends to reduce total electricity demand by 17% compared to a business-as-
usual scenario.

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(https://www.carbonbrief.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/Tomatō-Atsuma_Power_Station.jpg)
Tomatō-Atsuma Power Station in Atsuma, Hokkaido, Japan. Credit: achappe/Wikimedia Commons (CC BY 2.0)
(https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0/deed.en).

The draft plan is the rst to combine the renewables and nuclear gures to make a 44%
“zero-emission electricity share”. It is also the rst to outline plans to make renewables
“major electricity sources”, or to discuss “decarbonisation”. However, it failed to
increase Japan’s renewable targets, which some
(https://www.japantimes.co.jp/opinion/2018/01/17/editorials/revamping-nations-
basic-energy-plan/#.WxpX9jNKii4) had been pushing for.

The new basic energy plan is the rst to include 2050 targets. It outlines multiple
scenarios for 2050 based on different assumptions around renewables, fossil fuels,
nuclear and hydrogen.

Nuclear
Nuclear began to play a signi cant role in Japan’s energy mix from the mid-1970s
onwards. In the decades before 2010, it produced around a quarter of the country’s
electricity, as the chart below shows.

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Japan electricity production 1985-2017

Hydro Solar, wind, geothermal, biomass Nuclear Gas Oil Coal

1,250TWh

1,000TWh

750TWh

500TWh

250TWh

0TWh
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Sources of electricity production in Turkey, 1985-2017. Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2018
(https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/energy-economics/statistical-review-of-world-energy.html). Chart by Carbon Brief
using Highcharts (https://www.highcharts.com/).

However, the 2011 Fukushima disaster (https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-the-

legacy-of-the-fukushima-nuclear-disaster) drastically altered Japan’s view of nuclear
energy. A tsunami caused by an earthquake off Japan’s northeast coast resulted in
nuclear meltdown, with around 150,000 people evacuated due to the radiation threat.
Following this, Japan quickly cut back on its use of nuclear energy and by 2013 it had
shuttered all its nuclear plants. A large expansion of gas and oil provided the missing
power.

In the wake of these changes, Japan announced

(https://climateactiontracker.org/countries/japan/pledges-and-targets/) a weakened
international climate pledge in 2013. The new goal
(https://climateactiontracker.org/countries/japan/pledges-and-targets/) will mean a 5%
rise (https://www.carbonbrief.org/japans-2030-climate-pledge-leaves-room-for-coal-
expansion) on 1990 emissions by 2020, while the previous pledge
(http://www4.unfccc.int/ndcregistry/PublishedDocuments/Japan%20First/20150717_Japan%27s%20INDC
would have reduced emissions 25% on 1990 levels. Japan is expected
(https://climateactiontracker.org/countries/japan/) to overachieve its new target with
current policies.

Japan’s government supports the re-commissioning of nuclear plants to help tackle

(https://www.eia.gov/beta/international/analysis.php?iso=JPN) energy supply strains,
high energy prices and carbon emissions. The new draft 2030 energy plan
(http://www.enecho.meti.go.jp/committee/council/basic_policy_subcommittee/027/pdf/027_006.pdf)
describes nuclear as an “important base-load electricity source”.

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(https://www.carbonbrief.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/power-plant-niigata-prefecture.jpg)
Kashiwazaki-Kariwa nuclear power plant in Niigata Prefecture, shortly after the reactor’s operation was suspended for routine
checkup in March 2012. Credit: Newscom/Alamy Stock Photo.

Some nuclear plants have already reopened

(https://www.forbes.com/sites/kensilverstein/2017/09/08/japan-may-be-coming-full-
circle-after-its-fukushima-nuclear-energy-disaster/#721e1b0c30e8) in recent years and
nuclear generation is rising (https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/energy-
economics/statistical-review-of-world-energy.html). However, only seven
(http://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/country-pro les/countries-g-
n/japan-nuclear-power.aspx) of the country’s 42 operable plants are currently running
and nuclear output remains at a fraction of its pre-2011 level. Government plans for
increasing nuclear would mean (https://www.renewable-
ei.org/en/column/column_20150910_02.php) both restarting nuclear plants and
extending their lifetime.

Nuclear power remains contested

(https://af.reuters.com/article/commoditiesNews/idAFL3N1R53E9) in Japan, with a
majority of people opposed
(https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20170313/p2a/00m/0na/006000c) to restarting
reactors. Court orders (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-12-13/japan-
court-bars-operation-of-shikoku-electric-nuclear-reactor) and public opposition have
delayed (https://uk.reuters.com/article/energy-japan-imports/update-1-japan-2017-
thermal-coal-imports-hit-record-lng-up-for- rst-year-in-three-idUKL4N1PJ1DT) the
return of nuclear plants.

Renewables

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Japan has rapidly expanded its renewable power in recent years. Solar, wind and other
non-hydro renewables produced 10% of Japan’s electricity in 2017, more than triple
their production in 2012. Hydro has produced 6-8% of Japan’s electricity for decades.

By 2030, Japan expects 7% of its electricity to come from solar, 9% from hydro, 4% from
biomass and 2% from wind. Together these would meet its target
(http://www.meti.go.jp/english/press/2015/pdf/0716_01a.pdf) for 22-24% share of
renewables in the power mix, up from 18% in 2017. Despite a push
(https://www.japantimes.co.jp/opinion/2018/01/17/editorials/revamping-nations-
basic-energy-plan/#.WyE4uBJKii4) to set
(https://in uencemap.org/site/data/000/302/Japan_Report_October_2017.pdf) a higher
2030 renewables goal, this has reportedly been little discussed
(https://climateactiontracker.org/countries/japan/) in government so far.

Since 2012, renewables have been supported by Japan’s feed-in tariff (FIT) law
(http://www.lse.ac.uk/GranthamInstitute/law/act-on-purchase-of-renewable-energy-
sourced-electricity-by-electric-utilities-law-no-108-of-2011/), which covers solar,
wind, hydro, geothermal and biomass. The law obliges utilities to buy renewable
electricity at a high guaranteed price, with costs paid by users.

The expansion of large-scale solar farms, in particular, has been helped

(https://www.forbes.com/sites/williampentland/2017/01/23/japans-solar-boom-is-
accelerating/#45da14032c90) by the FIT law, although this has slowed slightly in the
past few years. Japan ranked (http://www.ren21.net/status-of-renewables/global-
status-report/) fourth globally for new capacity additions in 2017, with an estimated 7
gigawatts (GW) installed, despite a slight decrease in expansion in the past few years.
Japan’s solar capacity now stands at over 49GW. This is the world’s third largest
(http://www.ren21.net/status-of-renewables/global-status-report/), behind China and
the US but ahead of Germany (https://www.carbonbrief.org/how-germany-generates-
its-electricity).

The Japanese parliament passed changes to the FIT law

(https://www.whitecase.com/publications/alert/changes-japans-existing-renewable-
energy-feed-tariff-system) in 2016 to reduce its cost and better balance support
between different technologies. In addition, the FIT system for large-scale solar
projects was replaced with a new auction system. The rst auction
(https://www.reuters.com/article/japan-solar-auction/japans- rst-solar-auction-
pushes-prices-down-by-nearly-a-quarter-idUSL3N1NS1VL), held in 2017, produced
signi cantly lower solar prices than under the FIT system. However, solar prices remain
higher (https://www.statista.com/statistics/566508/global-investment-cost-of-
residential-and-utility-electricity-in-solar-photovoltaics-by-country/) than in many
other countries.

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(https://www.carbonbrief.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/solar-japan.jpg)
Photovoltaic power plant and mountain, Japan. Credit: Norikazu Satomi/Alamy Stock Photo.

Japan has relatively little wind capacity, which critics blame (https://www.eu-
japan.eu/sites/default/ les/publications/docs/windenergyjapan_heger_min16_1.pdf) on
a rigorous Environmental Impact Assessment
(https://www.env.go.jp/en/focus/docs/ les/20120501-04.pdf) procedure and dif culty
in accessing the grid (https://www.renewable-ei.org/en/column/column_20141007.php).
Government projections (http://www.meti.go.jp/english/press/2015/pdf/0716_01a.pdf)
only expect 1.7% of power generation to come from wind by 2030. Japan added around
0.2GW (http://www.ren21.net/gsr-2018/) of new wind capacity in 2017, bringing its
total to just over 3GW (http://jwpa.jp/page_256_englishsite/jwpa/detail_e.html).

Geography has also been seen as a barrier to wind power development in Japan. For
offshore wind, the deep waters near to its coast could limit development, although
near-shore (https://www.carbontrust.com/media/566323/ctc834-detailed-appraisal-of-
the-offshore-wind-industry-in-japan.pdf) wind farms and the development
(https://www.carbontrust.com/media/566323/ctc834-detailed-appraisal-of-the-
offshore-wind-industry-in-japan.pdf) of oating offshore
(https://www.carbonbrief.org/qa-how-viable-are- oating-offshore-windfarms) wind
technology could overcome this.

Japanese offshore wind power has “tremendous potential”, according to a 2017 report
(http://ieefa.org/ieefa-report-renewables-path-japanese-energy-security-post-nuclear-
era/) from the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA
(http://ieefa.org/)). New legislation to help promote the development of offshore wind
was passed (http://www.owjonline.com/news/view,legislation-paves-way-for-japan-to-
identify-offshore-wind-development-zones_51671.htm) earlier this year.
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Onshore wind also faces geographical constraints

(https://www.cleantechholland.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/List-Japanese-
Delegation-semi- nal-1505.pdf), including population density, fragmented
(http://polet.network/blog/wind-japan-nuclear-geography) electricity grids,
mountainous terrain, earthquakes and typhoons. Its contribution to the renewables mix
is expected (https://www.carbontrust.com/media/566323/ctc834-detailed-appraisal-of-
the-offshore-wind-industry-in-japan.pdf) to peak shortly after 2030.

Coal
Coal power has risen in Japan since the Fukushima accident, supported in recent years
by several policies (https://www.kikonet.org/wp/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/Japans-
climate-and-energy-policy-and-coal-power-status_F.pdf) to make approval of coal
plants easier and cheaper. Coal accounted for 34% of Japan’s electricity production in
2017, up from 27% in 2010.

Japan has around 45 GW (https://www.carbonbrief.org/mapped-worlds-coal-power-

plants) of operating coal plants (https://www.carbonbrief.org/mapped-worlds-coal-
power-plants) – the sixth largest eet in the world – according to the Global Coal Plant
Tracker (https://endcoal.org/global-coal-plant-tracker/). It also shows Japan has 18GW
of new coal- red plants in the planning or construction phases, the biggest coal power
construction plans of any developed nation.

Note, though, that only 4GW of these plants are currently under construction and some
of them may not get built. Nearly a quarter
(https://twitter.com/ChristineSheare/status/989947109838221312?s=03) of the new
plants planned by the end of 2017 have been cancelled
(https://twitter.com/laurimyllyvirta/status/989829682907398145) or shelved this year.

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Tsuruga power plant, Japan. Credit: Joel Abroad/Flickr (CC BY-NC-SA).

In order to align with the Paris Agreement goals, Japan now needs to shift focus to how
to mostly phase out all coal plants by 2030, according
(http://climateanalytics.org/publications/2018/science-based-coal-phase-out-timeline-
for-japan.html) to scienti c NGO Climate Analytics (http://climateanalytics.org/). It
pointed to the UK (https://www.carbonbrief.org/uk-plans-to-close-last-coal-plant-by-
2025), which is set to shut down its last coal plant by 2025, as an example of a
successful coal phase-out (https://www.carbonbrief.org/mapped-worlds-coal-power-
plants).

Japan’s coal plants are thought to be the most ef cient

(http://www.powermag.com/who-has-the-worlds-most-ef cient-coal-power-plant-
eet/) in the world. However, ef ciency (http://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-
opinion/article/2139667/new-coal-war-frontier-emerges-china-and-japan-compete-
energy) standards will not come close to bringing emissions down to what is needed
under the Paris Agreement, Climate Analytics says.

Japan has not had any large-scale coal mining since it dwindled
(https://www.eia.gov/beta/international/analysis.php?iso=JPN) to almost nothing in
2002. It imported a record amount (https://uk.reuters.com/article/energy-japan-
imports/update-1-japan-2017-thermal-coal-imports-hit-record-lng-up-for- rst-year-
in-three-idUKL4N1PJ1DT) of coal last year, primarily (https://resourcetrade.earth/data?
year=2016&importer=392&category=30&units=value) from Australia. Japan’s banks
are also well known for nancing (http://climateanalytics.org/latest/japans-coal-
renaissance-poses-serious-risks-to-businesses-and-investors) coal developments
abroad, especially in South East Asia.

Oil and gas

Japan is the world’s largest (https://www.eia.gov/beta/international/analysis.php?
iso=JPN) lique ed natural gas (LNG) importer and electricity accounts
(http://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/GasResiliencyAssessmentofJapan.pdf)
for the majority of gas consumption. Following the Fukushima disaster, gas-based
electricity became the largest contributor to ll the gap from closed nuclear plants. It
increased by around a third between 2010 and 2012, remaining at high levels ever since.

The government expects (http://www.meti.go.jp/english/press/2015/pdf/0716_01a.pdf)

natural gas to supply 27% of the nation’s power in 2030, down from 40% today.

Japan is also the world’s third largest

(https://www.eia.gov/beta/international/analysis.php?iso=JPN) oil consumer and
importer, behind the US and China. The use of oil to produce electricity fell over the
decades up to 2010. Its use doubled in the years following Fukushima, but has since

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dropped to its lowest ever level, supplying 5% of electricity in 2017. The government
expects (http://www.meti.go.jp/english/press/2015/pdf/0716_01a.pdf) it to supply 3% of
power in 2030.

(https://www.carbonbrief.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/KF1A1R-honda.jpg)
The president of Honda, Takahiro Hachigo, pictured after presenting its new concept cars at the 45th Tokyo Motor Show. Credit:
Yuichiro Tashiro /Alamy Live News.

Japan’s transport and manufacturing sectors rely heavily on oil, which the government
notes
(http://www.enecho.meti.go.jp/en/category/others/basic_plan/pdf/4th_strategic_energy_plan.pdf)
has highest geopolitical risk to procurement among all fossil fuels.

Japan’s government has set out a “hydrogen society” vision

(https://www.japan.go.jp/tomodachi/2016/spring2016/tokyo_realize_hydrogen_by_2020.html),
which it plans to showcase at the 2020 Tokyo Olympic Games
(https://www.google.co.uk/search?
q=2020+tokyo+olympic+games&oq=2020+Tokyo+Olympic+Games&aqs=chrome.0.0l6.163j0j7&sourceid=
8). This includes a target (https://www.scienti camerican.com/article/japan-bets-on-a-
hydrogen-fueled-future/) of putting 40,000 hydrogen-powered vehicles on the road by
2020 and doubling the number of fuelling stations to 160.

Japan has also promoted

(https://web.archive.org/web/20101226222150/http://www.jama.org/pdf/FactSheet10-
2009-09-24.pdf) the uptake (https://www.statista.com/statistics/711994/japan-electric-
car-market-share/)of electric and hybrid cars using subsidies
(https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/may/10/japan-electric-car-charge-points-
petrol-stations) and infrastructure support, and had a eet of 150,000
(https://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/GlobalEVOutlook2017.pdf)
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in 2016. Toyota, the country’s biggest automaker, has long promoted

(https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-autoshow-tokyo-hydrogen/hydrogen-fuel-cell-car-
push-dumb-toyota-makes-a-case-for-the-mirai-idUKKBN1CV0I2) its rst hydrogen-
powered car, but more recently announced (https://www.express.co.uk/life-
style/cars/894224/Toyota-electric-car-hybrid-2020-Prius) plans to develop a range of
electric vehicles (https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/09/business/japan-electric-
cars.html).

Climate laws
Japan’s climate policy takes place (https://www.kikonet.org/wp/wp-
content/uploads/2016/05/Japans-climate-and-energy-policy-and-coal-power-
status_F.pdf) under its Act on Promotion of Global Warming Countermeasures
(http://www.cas.go.jp/jp/seisaku/hourei/data/APGWC.pdf). This was passed in 1998
(http://www.lse.ac.uk/GranthamInstitute/law/law-concerning-the-promotion-of-the-
measures-to-cope-with-global-warming-act-on-promotion-of-global-warming-
countermeasures-law-no-107-of-1998/) and aims to reduce human-caused global
warming by “formulating a plan for attaining targets”. It commits the state, local
governments and companies to develop emission reduction plans.

The most recent (https://www.env.go.jp/press/ les/en/676.pdf) state plan was released

in May 2016. This also serves to “clarif[y] the pathway” to achieving Japan’s NDC goal.
It sets out “estimated emissions” reductions in different sectors to meet the 2030 target
and policies to get there.

The biggest cuts are expected to come from the commercial, residential and transport
sectors. It outlines plans to improve the energy ef ciency of buildings through 100%
use of LED lights and installation of 5.3m fuel cells in homes by 2030. Electric or fuel
cell vehicles should make up 50-70% of new sales by 2030, it says, while renewables
should be expanded “to the maximum extent possible”.

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(https://www.carbonbrief.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/G26AM9-hydrogen-car.jpg)
Visitors look at the hydrogen fuel cell vehicle system of the Toyota Mirai at an exposition in Yokohama, Japan, 25/05/2016. Credit:
Rodrigo Reyes Marin/AFLO/Alamy Live News

The country’s law (http://www.lse.ac.uk/GranthamInstitute/law/law-concerning-the-

rational-use-of-energy-energy-conservation-act-law-no-49-of-1979/) on the “rational
use of energy”, enacted in 1979 due to the oil crisis
(https://www.federalreservehistory.org/essays/oil_shock_of_1978_79), aims to promote
effective use of energy, including in transport and industry. The government prides
itself
(http://www.enecho.meti.go.jp/en/category/brochures/pdf/japan_energy_2017.pdf) on
its energy ef ciency improvements (http://ieefa.org/wp-
content/uploads/2017/03/Japan_-Greater-Energy-Security-Through-Renewables-
_March-2017.pdf) since then and aims to improve energy consumption ef ciency 35%
by 2030, compared to 2012 levels.

In 2015, Japan passed regulation (https://www.iea.org/beep/japan/codes/building-

energy-ef ciency-act-2015.html) making energy ef ciency standards for large buildings
mandatory for the rst time. It also aims
(http://www.enecho.meti.go.jp/en/category/others/basic_plan/pdf/4th_strategic_energy_plan.pdf)
to reduce the net energy consumption of new homes and buildings to zero by 2030.

Japan has a long-term goal to reduce its greenhouse gases by 80%, though it gives no
baseline year for this. The goal was set back in 2012 and re-stated in the 2016 climate
plan (https://www.env.go.jp/press/ les/en/676.pdf).

It is now developing (http://japan.kantei.go.jp/98_abe/actions/201806/_00013.html) a

long-term emissions strategy (https://unfccc.int/process/the-paris-agreement/long-
term-strategies) up to 2050, due to be submitted to the UNFCCC by 2020. Japan is
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expected to nalise it before hosting the G20 summit

(http://www.scmp.com/news/asia/diplomacy/article/2134135/japan-picks-osaka-host-
g20-summit-2019) in May 2019.

CAT has expressed concern (https://climateactiontracker.org/countries/japan/) over

Japan’s long-term strategy. It says that two government ministries – the Ministry of the
Environment (MOEJ (https://www.env.go.jp/en/)) and METI
(http://www.meti.go.jp/english/) – have published separate reports on the strategy with
“fundamentally different directions”. It says
(https://climateactiontracker.org/countries/japan/):

“The MOEJ focuses on how to achieve the 80% by 2050 reduction target domestically, and
emphasises a need for the early introduction of a fully- edged carbon pricing scheme.

In complete contrast, the METI emphasises the dif culty of achieving the 80% reduction
domestically and focuses instead on Japan’s international contribution to global emissions
reductions. The METI report is also critical about any introduction of a full- edged,
nationwide carbon pricing in the near-term.”

Japan’s environment ministry is currently working on a carbon pricing

(https://www.env.go.jp/en/earth/ets/mkt_mech/scheme-emissions_trading.pdf)
proposal, although opposition remains (https://carbon-pulse.com/49198/) in parts of
the government. Last year, Japan’s environment minister called carbon pricing “the
most ef cient tool” to help achieve the 2050 target.

In 2012, Japan implemented a carbon tax

(http://www.lse.ac.uk/GranthamInstitute/law/act-partially-amending-the-law-on-
special-tax-measures-tax-reform-act-2012-law-no-16-of-2012/)on oil, gas and coal
imports, with revenues going towards measures to curb CO2 emissions. The price of
this remains very low at under $3 per tonne CO2e
(https://carbonpricingdashboard.worldbank.org/map_data).

Impacts and adaptation

Japan is vulnerable to several impacts of climate change, including sea level rise
(https://www.theguardian.com/cities/ng-interactive/2017/nov/03/three-degree-world-
cities-drowned-global-warming), coastal erosion
(https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2017/07/170713154919.htm), more intense
typhoons (https://www.nature.com/articles/ngeo2792) and summer droughts.

Some research has shown the effects of climate change already being felt in Japan. One
2013 paper (https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0006320712002935)
found several ecological changes occurring due to climate change, including delays in
the rst springtime appearance of some insects.

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Meanwhile, the Japan Metrological Agency (http://www.jma.go.jp/jma/indexe.html)

says long-term temperature rises due to global warming may have contributed
(https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2018/05/13/national/early-peaking-japans-cherry-
blossoms-laid-warmer-march-climate-change/#.WyEP7BJKii4) to this year’s early
blooming of cherry trees. The culturally signi cant
(https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-26756005)trees have been
owering a day earlier every decade since 1953, the agency says.

In March 2015, Japan’s Central Environment Council released a 108-page impact

assessment (https://www.env.go.jp/en/focus/docs/ les/20150300-100.pdf) of the
current and possible future impacts of climate change across seven sectors, from
agriculture to human health.

(https://www.carbonbrief.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/cherry-blossom-trees.jpg)
Cherry Blossom in Gyoen National Garden, Shinjuku, Tokyo, Japan. Credit: Oleksiy Maksymenko Photography/Alamy Stock Photo.

The report noted, for example, a projected decline in the quality of rice due to rising
temperatures. It also said Japan’s current vulnerability to oods means more severe
rainfall conditions due to climate change could have “considerably high” impacts.

The government followed up this impact assessment in November 2015 with its 107-
page National Adaptation Plan (http://www.env.go.jp/en/focus/docs/ les/20151127-
101.pdf). This outlined how climate adaptation in the seven sectors should be
“mainstream[ed]” into government policy. The next plan is due in or before 2020.

In February 2018, Japan’s cabinet approved a bill

(https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2018/02/21/national/japans-cabinet-adopts-bill-
reduce-global-warming-damage/#.WyDofhJKii7) to address the damage from already
locked-in effects of climate change. The bill commits (http://www.adaptation-
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platform.nies.go.jp/en/index.html) the environment ministry to assessing climate

change impacts every ve years and municipalities to developing adaptation plans. The
bill is expected (https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2018/02/21/national/japans-
cabinet-adopts-bill-reduce-global-warming-damage/#.WyEShxJKii7) to be enacted by
Japan’s two parliamentary chambers this summer.

Japan is obliged (https://unfccc.int/parties-observers) to provide climate nance to

other countries, due to its Annex II (http://unfccc.int/cop3/fccc/climate/annex2.htm)
status at the UNFCCC. It is the third biggest donor to multilateral climate funds after
the US and UK, Carbon Brief analysis (https://www.carbonbrief.org/mapped-where-
multilateral-climate-funds-spend-their-money) showed last year.

Most signi cantly, it has pledged $1.5bn to the Green Climate Fund (GCF
(https://www.greenclimate.fund/home)), established to leverage climate nance
towards the $100bn per year (https://www.carbonbrief.org/climate- nance-challenge-
shifting-trillions) promised by developed countries by 2020.

This means Japan is now, in effect, the GCF’s largest donor

(https://www.greenclimate.fund/how-we-work/resource-mobilization). The US, which
had pledged $3bn to the fund, has said
(https://www.washingtonpost.com/posteverything/wp/2017/06/02/trump-will-stop-
paying-into-the-green-climate-fund-he-has-no-idea-what-it-is/) it now plans not to
follow through on $2bn of this.

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