Chartbook of The IGWT20 Gold Conquering New Record Highs

“The Dawning of a Golden Decade”
Chartbook of the
In Gold We Trust report 2020
Ronald-Peter Stöferle
Mark J. Valek
September 2020
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3
Executive Summary of the In Gold We Trust 2020 chartbook
1) The Dawning of a Golden Decade
Monetary policy normalization has failed. The coronavirus is the accelerant of the overdue recession that heralds the dawn of a
new monetary world order. Trend-setting monetary and geopolitical upheavals are to be expected and already executed by the
Federal Reserve relaxing the inflation target “average 2%” supporting a medium-term inflationary environment.
2) The Status Quo of Gold
Gold proved to be a profitable investment in markets that are characterized by high volatility and uncertainty once again,
crossing the magical USD 2,000 mark in August this year for the first time in history. Currently gold is stuck in a healthy
correction.
3) Silver’s Silver Lining
History is repeating and silver is now outperforming gold again. The gold/silver ratio is still trading at high levels around 80,
indicating silver has not yet exhausted its full potential of outperforming gold in this cycle.
4) Mining Stocks – The Party Has (Just) Begun
Mining companies were the great beneficiaries of rising gold and silver prices this year and at this stage the end of the bull
market is not in sight. Quite the contrary, every bull market ended with a parabolic upward trend that lasted 9 months on average
and at least doubled the price.
5) Quo vadis, aurum?
Our proprietary valuation model shows a gold price of USD 4,800 at the end of this decade, even with conservative calibration
and a gold price of USD 8,900 in an inflationary environment.
4
1) The Dawning of a Golden Decade
“All roads lead to gold.”
Kiril Sokoloff
5
CB Flows yoy (lhs), in USD bn, and S&P 500 yoy % (rhs), 01/2004-08/2020
7 000 50%
6 000
30%
5 000
4 000
10%
3 000
-10%
2 000
1 000
-30%
-1 000 -50%
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Fed BoJ ECB Total S&P 500
Source: Reuters Eikon, Incrementum AG
6
Federal Reserve‘s Balance Sheet (lhs), in USD bn, and Effective Federal
Funds Rate (rhs), in %, 01/2003-09/2020
8 000 6
6 000
4 000 3
2 000
0 0
2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
Recession Fed balance sheet Effective federal funds rate
7
M0 (lhs), in USD bn, and M2 minus M0 (rhs), in USD bn, 01/2000-08/2020
5 500 14 000
Billions
Billions
4 500 12 000
3 500 10 000
2 500 8 000
1 500 6 000
500 4 000
2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020
M0 M2 minus M0
8
US M2 (yoy%), Q1/1960-Q2/2020
M2 Growth Rate Even Higher Than In 1970ies!
25
20
15
10
0
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
US M2 (yoy%)
9
US Velocity of Money, Q1/1960-Q2/2020
2.2
2.0
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
1.0
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
US Velocity of money
10
Global Negative Yielding Debt (lhs), in USD tn, and Gold (rhs), in USD
01/2015-06/2020
18 1 900
16 1 800
14 1 700
12 1 600
10 1 500
8 1 400
6 1 300
4 1 200
2 1 100
0 1 000
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Global negative yielding debt market value Gold
Source: Bloomberg, Reuters Eikon, Incrementum AG
11
Federal Debt as % of GDP, 1790-2030e
120
106 108
98
100
80
60
40
20
0
1790 1810 1830 1850 1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030
Federal debt as % of GDP March 2020 CBO forecast through 2030 April 2020 CBO forecast through 2021
Source: CBO, Incrementum AG
12
Did the Everything Bubble Burst?
Financial assets of households/disposable personal income 1970-Q2/2020
6.0 Everything Bubble
Housing Bubble
5.5
Dot-Com Bubble
5.0
4.5
4.0
3.5
3.0
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Recession Financial assets of households/Disposable personal income
13
Dow/Gold Ratio (log), 01/1800-08/2020
100
1913
Gold low
Gold low Stocks high
Stocks high
Gold low
Gold standard era Stocks high
10
Gold low
Stocks high Gold high
Stocks low
1
Gold high
Stocks low
Gold high
Gold high Stocks low Fiat capital era
Stocks low
0
1800 1820 1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020
Dow/Gold ratio
Source: Nick Laird, goldchartsrus.com, Reuters Eikon, Incrementum AG
14
GSCI/DJIA Ratio, 01/1900-08/2020
1.2
1.0
Commodities overvalued
0.8
0.6
Median: 0.45
0.4
0.2
Commodities undervalued
0.0
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
GSCI/DJIA ratio
Source: http://blog.gorozen.com/blog/commodities-at-a-100-year-low-valuation, Reuters Eikon, Incrementum AG
15
2) The Status Quo of Gold
“Realize that everything is connected

to everything else.”
Leonardo Da Vinci
16
Gold Price Performance in Major Currencies, 2000-09/2020
USD EUR GBP AUD CAD CNY JPY CHF INR Average
2000 -5.3% 1.2% 2.4% 11.2% -1.9% -5.4% 5.8% -4.2% 1.4% 0.6%
2001 2.4% 8.4% 5.3% 12.0% 8.8% 2.4% 18.0% 5.5% 5.8% 7.6%
2002 24.4% 5.5% 12.3% 13.2% 22.9% 24.4% 12.2% 3.5% 23.7% 15.8%
2003 19.6% -0.2% 8.0% -10.7% -1.3% 19.6% 8.1% 7.4% 13.9% 7.2%
2004 5.6% -2.0% -1.7% 1.5% -2.0% 5.6% 0.8% -3.1% 0.1% 0.5%
2005 18.1% 35.2% 31.6% 25.9% 14.1% 15.1% 35.9% 36.3% 22.8% 26.1%
2006 23.0% 10.4% 8.1% 14.3% 23.3% 19.0% 24.2% 14.1% 20.7% 17.5%
2007 30.9% 18.4% 29.2% 18.0% 12.0% 22.5% 22.5% 21.8% 16.9% 21.4%
2008 5.4% 10.0% 43.0% 30.5% 28.7% -1.5% -14.2% -0.8% 30.0% 14.6%
2009 24.8% 21.8% 13.0% -1.6% 7.9% 24.8% 27.9% 21.1% 19.2% 17.6%
2010 29.5% 38.6% 34.2% 13.9% 22.8% 25.1% 13.2% 16.8% 24.8% 24.3%
2011 10.2% 13.8% 10.6% 9.9% 12.7% 5.2% 4.5% 10.7% 30.7% 12.0%
2012 7.1% 5.0% 2.4% 5.3% 4.2% 6.0% 20.7% 4.5% 11.1% 7.4%
2013 -28.0% -30.9% -29.4% -16.1% -23.0% -30.1% -12.6% -29.8% -19.1% -24.3%
2014 -1.8% 11.6% 4.4% 7.2% 7.5% 0.7% 11.6% 9.4% 0.2% 5.6%
2015 -10.4% -0.2% -5.3% 0.6% 6.8% -6.2% -9.9% -9.7% -5.9% -4.4%
2016 8.5% 12.1% 29.7% 9.4% 5.3% 16.1% 5.4% 10.3% 11.4% 12.0%
2017 13.1% -0.9% 3.3% 4.6% 5.9% 6.0% 9.0% 8.3% 6.3% 6.2%
2018 -1.5% 3.0% 4.3% 9.0% 6.8% 4.1% -4.2% -0.8% 7.3% 3.1%
2019 18.3% 21.0% 13.8% 18.7% 12.6% 19.7% 17.2% 16.6% 21.3% 17.7%
2020 ytd 22.6% 18.2% 27.6% 22.5% 26.4% 20.2% 19.2% 17.6% 26.6% 22.3%
Average 10.3% 9.5% 11.7% 9.5% 9.5% 9.2% 10.3% 7.4% 12.8% 10.0%
Source: Reuters Eikon (as of 25th of September 2020), goldprice.org, Incrementum AG
17
Gold Performance in Major Currencies, indexed 01/2009 = 100,
01/2009-09/2020
260
240
220
200
180
160
140
120
100
80
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
JPY EUR GBP CAD CNY USD CHF
18
Gold in USD, and World Gold Price, 01/2008-09/2020
2 750
2 500
2 250
2 000
1 750
1 500
1 250
1 000
750
500
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Gold in USD World gold price
19
Gold Bull and Bear Markets, 01/1971-09/2020
10
49 months
512%
125 months
583%
31 months
218%
13 months
94% 34 months
62% 57 months
74%
4 months
-21% 20 months 160 months 51 months
-40% -46% -40%
53 months
-56%
0
1971 1978 1985 1992 1999 2006 2013 2020
Recession Bull Bear
20
Gold/S&P 500 Ratio, 01/2008-09/2020
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Gold/S&P 500 ratio 90d MA 200d MA
21
Gold in Local Currency, and Domestic Stock Index, Annual Performance
in %, 2020
60%
53%
50%
40%
30% 26%
23% 22%
20% 19%
20% 18%
12%
10%
0%
0%
-5% -4% -5%

-10% -7%
-14%
-20%
-30%
Gold in local currency Domestic stock index
Source: Reuters Eikon (as of 24th of September 2020), Incrementum AG
22
S&P 500/Gold Ratio, 01/1950-09/2020
Risk on Risk off Risk on Risk off Risk on Risk off ?
4
Dollar bearish
Inflation high
Dollar bearish
3 Inflation high
1
Dollar bearish
Inflation high
0
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
S&P 500/Gold ratio
Source: wellenreiter-invest.de, Nick Laird, goldchartsrus.com, Incrementum AG
23
US-Dollar Index, 01/1980-09/2020
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019
US-Dollar Index
Source: wellenreiter-invest.de, Reuters Eikon, Incrementum AG
24
Gold, in USD, and Gold/S&P 500 Ratio, log, 01/1965-09/2020
10 000
1 000
100
10
1
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Gold Gold/S&P 500 ratio Gold/S&P 500 > 200 weeks MA 200 weeks MA
Source: Charter Trust Company, Reuters Eikon, Nick Laird, goldchartsrus.com, Incrementum AG
25
DJIA Rallies During the Great Recession, 01/1929-12/1932
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
01/1929 07/1929 01/1930 07/1930 01/1931 07/1931 01/1932 07/1932
DJIA
Source: Rosenberg Research, Nick Laird, goldchartsrus.com, Incrementum AG
26
Gold (Inflation Adjusted and log), in USD, 01/1900-08/2020
100
10
0
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
Gold/CPI
27
Purchasing Power of Main Currencies Valued in Gold (log), 01/1971-09/2020
100
10
1
1971 1978 1985 1992 1999 2006 2013 2020
CHF EUR USD GBP
Source: Reuters Eikon, Nick Laird, goldchartsrus.com, Incrementum AG
28
Cumulated ETF Holdings by Region (lhs), in tonnes, and Gold (rhs), in
USD, 01/2004-08/2020
4 500 2 500
4 000
2 000
3 500
3 000
1 500
2 500
2 000
1 000
1 500
1 000
500
500
0 0
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
North America Europe Asia Other Gold
Source: World Gold Council, Incrementum AG
29
Gold Held in ETFs as % of US Equities, 01/2008-08/2020
1.2%
1.0%
0.8%
0.6%
0.4%
0.2%
0.0%
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
ETF gold equities in % of US equities
Source: Atlas Pulse, Reuters Eikon, World Gold Council, Incrementum AG
30
3) Silver’s Silver Lining
“Everyone’s looking for gold. So, I’ll

be the one collecting the silver.”
Rehan Khan, A Tudor Turk
31
Silver Price Performance in Major Currencies
USD EUR GBP AUD CAD CNY JPY CHF INR Average
2000 -15.0% -9.2% -8.1% -0.1% -11.9% -15.0% -5.0% -13.9% -8.9% -9.7%
2001 0.4% 6.3% 3.3% 9.9% 6.7% 0.4% 15.7% 3.5% 3.8% 5.6%
2002 3.3% -12.4% -6.8% -6.0% 2.0% 3.3% -6.9% -14.1% 2.7% -3.9%
2003 24.6% 3.9% 12.4% -7.0% 2.7% 24.6% 12.6% 11.9% 18.6% 11.6%
2004 14.5% 6.3% 6.6% 10.1% 6.2% 14.5% 9.3% 5.1% 8.6% 9.0%
2005 29.7% 48.6% 44.6% 38.3% 25.4% 26.5% 49.3% 49.8% 35.0% 38.6%
2006 46.1% 31.1% 28.4% 35.8% 46.4% 41.3% 47.4% 35.5% 43.3% 39.5%
2007 14.8% 3.8% 13.3% 3.4% -1.8% 7.4% 7.4% 6.8% 2.5% 6.4%
2008 -23.5% -20.1% 3.8% -5.3% -6.6% -28.5% -37.7% -28.0% -5.6% -16.8%
2009 48.9% 45.4% 34.9% 17.4% 28.8% 49.0% 52.7% 44.6% 42.3% 40.4%
2010 83.4% 96.2% 89.9% 61.2% 73.8% 77.0% 60.2% 65.3% 76.6% 76.0%
2011 -10.3% -7.3% -9.9% -10.5% -8.2% -14.3% -14.9% -9.9% 6.4% -8.8%
2012 9.5% 7.4% 4.6% 7.7% 6.5% 8.4% 23.4% 6.9% 13.6% 9.8%
2013 -36.0% -38.5% -37.1% -25.3% -31.4% -37.8% -22.3% -37.5% -28.0% -32.7%
2014 -19.3% -8.3% -14.2% -12.0% -11.7% -17.3% -8.3% -10.2% -17.7% -13.2%
2015 -11.7% -1.6% -6.7% -0.8% 5.2% -7.6% -11.2% -11.0% -7.2% -5.9%
2016 15.2% 19.0% 37.6% 16.2% 11.8% 23.2% 11.9% 17.1% 18.3% 18.9%
2017 6.4% -6.8% -2.9% -1.6% -0.4% -0.3% 2.5% 1.8% -0.1% -0.2%
2018 -8.7% -4.5% -3.2% 1.1% -1.0% -3.5% -11.2% -8.0% -0.5% -4.4%
2019 15.2% 17.8% 10.8% 15.6% 9.7% 16.6% 14.2% 13.6% 18.1% 14.6%
2020 ytd 28.2% 23.6% 33.4% 28.1% 32.1% 25.6% 24.7% 23.0% 32.4% 27.9%
Average 10.3% 9.6% 11.2% 8.4% 8.8% 9.2% 10.2% 7.2% 12.1% 9.7%
Source: Reuters Eikon (as of 25th of September 2020), silverprice.org, Incrementum AG
32
The Gold/Silver Ratio of the Modern Era, 01/1960-09/2020
120
100
80
80
60 58
40
30
20
0
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Gold/Silver ratio Top 10% Bottom 10% Median
Source: World Bank, Wheaton Precious Metals, Incrementum AG
33
Silver (Inflation Adjusted and log), in USD, 01/1900-08/2020
1.00
0.10
0.01
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
Silver/CPI
34
Silver/S&P 500 Ratio, 01/1998-09/2020
0.04
0.03
0.02
0.01
0.00
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Silver/S&P 500 ratio
35
SIL/QQQ Ratio, 04/2010-09/2020
2.00
1.00
0.50
0.25
0.13
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022
SIL/QQQ ratio
Source: Crescat Capital LLC, Reuters Eikon, Incrementum AG
36
4) Mining Stocks –
The Party Has (Just) Begun
“Never be the first to arrive at a party or the

last to go home and never, never be both.”
David Brown
37
HUI Index, 01/2004-09/2020
600
500
400
300
200
100
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
HUI Index 200d MA 50d MA
38
BGMI/Gold Ratio (log), 01/1950-09/2020
6.4
3.2
1.6 Median: 1.46
0.8
0.4
0.2
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
BGMI/Gold ratio
Source: Nick Laird, goldchartsrus.com, Reuters Eikon, Incrementum AG
39
Gold (lhs), in USD, and HUI/MSCI World Ratio (rhs), 01/2000-09/2020
2 000 0.5
1 600 0.4
1 200 0.3
800 0.2
400 0.1
0 0.0
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Gold HUI/MSCI World ratio
Source: Rosenberg Research, Reuters Eikon, Incrementum AG
40
SIL/GDX Ratio & GDXJ/GDX Ratio (lhs), and Gold (rhs), in USD,
01/2011-09/2020
3.0 2 200
2 000
2.5
1 800
2.0
1 600
1.5
1 400
1.0
1 200
0.5 1 000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
SIL/GDX GDXJ/GDX Gold
41
BGMI Bull Markets, indexed 100 = Start of Bull Market Cycle, 1942-2020
800
10/1942-02/1946 07/1960-03/1968 12/1971-08/1974
700 08/1976-10/1980 11/2000-03/2008 10/2008-04/2011

01/2016-09/2020
600
500
current bull market
400
300
200
100
0
0 40 80 120 160 200 240 280 320 360 400
Source: Nowandfutures, TheDailyGold.com, Barrons, Nick Laird, goldchartsrus.com, Incrementum AG
42
5) Quo vadis, aurum?
“We need to think outside the paradigm of the

last forty years if we wish to thrive over the
next two decades.”
Chris Cole, Artemis Capital Management
43
Approximated Gold Price in 2030 by Distribution Probability*, in USD
19.6%
20%
18.8%
14.7%
14.4%
15%
Probability-weighted peak:
10.4%
USD 4,821.80 (conservative approach)
USD 8,902.60 (radical approach)
10%
6.6%
5.6%
5%
3.9%
2.9%
2.4%
1.0%
0%
<1,000 1,000-2,000 2,000-3,000 3,000-4,000 4,000-5,000 5,000-6,000 6,000-7,000 7,000-8,000 8,000-10,000 10,000-12,500 >12,500
Source: Incrementum AG (*The exact description of the model can be found in the In Gold We Trust report 2020 on page 345ff.)
44
Compound Annual Growth Rates of Financial Assets
(as of December 31, 2019)
16%
14% 13.3%
12%
10.2%
10%
8.6%
7.9%
8% 7.5%
7.0%
6.1%
6%
4.6%
3.9%
4% 3.3% 3.1% 3.4%
1.9% 2.2%
1.8%
2% 1.0% 0.7%
0%
-2%
-4%
-4.7%
-6%
Since 1971 Since 1999 Since 2009
U.S. Cash U.S. Treasuries S&P500 Commodities Gold CPI/Inflation
Source: World Gold Council, DGYDJ, Voima, Incrementum AG
45
Asset Performance During 20% Weakest S&P 500 Weeks,
01/2000-09/2020
1%
0.2%
0%
-1% -0.8%
-0.8% -0.9%
-1.0%
-2%
-3% -2.9%
-3.3%
-4%
Gold HUI Silver BCOM Oil MSCI World S&P 500
46
Historical Asset Class Performance During Stagflationary Periods
Industrial Agriculture/
Start End S&P 500 US Dollar S&P GSCI Metals Gold Silver WTI Oil US T10Y (bps)
Commodities Livestock
Q4/1959 Q1/1971 13.2% -3.5% -8.8% -6.4% 8.9% 10.5% -10.1% 6.3% -198
Q4/1973 Q3/1975 -5.7% 11.6% 18.3% 21.8% -1.1% 10.0% 37.2% 64.7% 158.9% 158
Q2/1979 Q2/1981 32.7% 22.6% 33.0% -7.8% 1.5% 22.8% 77.4% 4.3% 139.7% 472
Q1/1982 Q1/1983 42.9% 6.8% 1.4% -11.8% -5.8% 1.6% 29.7% 48.7% 7.5% -356
Average nominal return 20.8% 13.7% 12.3% -1.6% -2.9% 10.8% 38.7% 26.9% 78.1% 19
Average real return 7.0% -0.1% -1.5% -15.5% -16.8% -3.0% 24.9% 13.1% 64.3%
Source: Bloomberg, Haver Analytics, Rosenberg Research, Incrementum AG
47
Historical Equity Sector Performance During Stagflationary Periods
Start End Materials Discretionary Industrials Energy Health Care Financials Staples Info. Tech. Telecom Utilities
Q4/1973 Q3/1975 18.9% -7.9% -13.6% -4.0% -11.0% -21.0% -10.0% -24.3% -2.6% -11.1%
Q2/1979 Q2/1981 26.6% 17.0% 33.2% 54.2% 29.3% 37.4% 20.4% -7.9% -5.8% -4.4%
Q1/1982 Q1/1983 48.5% 70.5% 55.2% 17.8% 43.0% 41.2% 45.8% 79.3% 15.9% 16.8%
Average nominal return 31.4% 26.5% 25.0% 22.7% 20.4% 19.2% 18.7% 15.7% 2.5% 0.4%
Average real return 17.6% 12.7% 11.1% 8.9% 6.6% 5.4% 4.9% 1.9% -11.3% -13.4%
Source: Bloomberg, Haver Analytics, Rosenberg Research, Incrementum AG
48
Gold (lhs), in USD, and Real federal funds rate (rhs), 01/1971-08/2020
2 500 10%
8%
2 000
6%
4%
1 500
2%
1 000
0%
-2%
500
-4%
0 -6%
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Real federal funds rate Gold
49
Gold (lhs), in USD, and US 5y TIPS (rhs), 01/2012-09/2020
2 000 -1.7
-1.2
1 800
-0.7
1 600
-0.2
1 400
0.3
1 200
0.8
1 000 1.3
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Gold US 5y TIPS
50
Inflation Sensitive Assets (lhs), indexed 01/2007 = 100, and
Incrementum Inflation Signal (rhs), 01/2007-09/2020
400 1
350
0.75
300
0.5
250
200 0.25
150
0
100
-0.25
50
0 -0.5
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Inflation Signal Gold Silver BCOM HUI
51
Gold, M1, M2, TCMDO & M2/Capita Growth, in %, 1971-2020 (lhs) and
2000-2020 (rhs)
6000% 700%
600%
5000%
500%
4000%
400%
3000%
300%
2000%
200%
1000%
100%
0% 0%
Gold M1 M2 TCMDO M2/capita
since 1971 since 2000
Source: Reuters Eikon, Federal Reserve St. Louis, Incrementum AG
52
Gold/GDP per Capita, 1900-2019
0.09
0.08
0.07
0.06
0.05
0.04
0.03
0.02
0.01
0.00
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Gold per capita

Source: Nick Laird, goldchartsrus.com, Incrementum AG
53
Gold/Oktoberfest Beer Ratio, 1950-2020*
250
200
1980: 2012:
137 Maß/Ounce 2020*:
227 Maß/Ounce 136 Maß/Ounce
150
Average:
1971: 89 Maß/Ounce
48 Maß/Ounce
100
50
0
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Gold/Oktoberfest beer ratio
Source: Reuters Eikon, Statista, Incrementum AG (*Due to Covid-19 there will be no Oktoberfest in 2020. Therefore the Oktoberfest beer price from the previous year was used for the calculation for the year 2020.)
54
The In Gold We Trust report 2020 in 8 Bullet Points (1/2)
1) Gold performance: Gold will prove to be a good investment over the course of this decade
and will provide stability and security in any portfolio running from one ATH to the next.
2) Monetary system: We believe that we are at the end of a deflationary interpretation of our
global monetary world order. In the new monetary world order gold will once again play an
important role as a stateless reserve currency.
3) Debt: Covid-19 is the accelerant of the overdue recession. The interventions resulting from
the pandemic risk are overstretching the debt sustainability of many countries. In 2020 we
will see the largest increase in debt the world has ever experienced in peace times.
4) Inflation: Central banks are in a quandary when it comes to combating inflation in the
future. Due to overindebtedness it will not be possible to control nascent inflation risks with
substantial interest rate increases.
55
The In Gold We Trust report 2020 in 8 Bullet Points (2/2)
5) Crisis: We are currently experiencing the most pronounced economic contraction in 90

years. Portfolios are far less vulnerable to shocks if anti-fragile assets are added.
6) Silver: In the medium-term inflationary environment, silver will be successful alongside

gold. We would be surprised, if the next ten or 20 years will not be some of best years in
silver’s history.
7) Mining stocks: As a consequence of the four-year bear market a large number of mining
companies are now standing on a more solid foundation. The producers are leaner, have
reduced their debt, and will benefit more from rising gold prices in the future.
8) General Outlook: Given the unique combination of circumstances, we are convinced that
the 2020s will go down in investment history as a golden decade. If money supply growth
develops in a similar inflationary manner to that of the 1970s, a gold price around USD 8,900
is realistic by 2030. A more conservative calibration forecasts a gold price of still USD 4,800.
56
Addendum
Because we care…
About our Clients.

About the Society.
About the Future.
57
About the In Gold We Trust report
• The annually published In Gold We Trust report has been authored by Ronald-
Peter Stöferle since 2007, this year for the eighth time together with Mark Valek
and under the umbrella of Incrementum AG.
• It provides a holistic assessment of the gold sector and the most important
influencing factors, such as real interest rate development, debt, inflation, etc.
• The In Gold We Trust report is one of the most read gold analyses worldwide
and was downloaded and shared almost 2 million times this year.
• Since 2019 the In Gold We Trust report has also been published in China. The
Mandarin version will be published in autumn this year.
• All information can be found at www.ingoldwetrust.report.
58
Discover Our Whole Universe of Publications
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About the Authors
Ronald-Peter Stoeferle, CMT Mark J. Valek, CAIA
• Ronni is managing partner of • Mark is a partner of Incrementum

Incrementum AG and responsible AG and responsible for portfolio
for research and portfolio management and research.
management • Prior to Incrementum, he was with
• In 2007 he published his first In Merrill Lynch and then for 10 years
Gold We Trust report. Over the with Raiffeisen Capital
years, the study has become one of Management, most recently as
the benchmark publications on fund manager in the area of
gold, money, and inflation. inflation protection.
• Advisor for Tudor Gold Corp. • He gained entrepreneurial
(TUD), a significant explorer in experience as co-founder of philoro
British Columbia’s Golden Triangle. Edelmetalle GmbH.
• Member of the advisory board of
Affinity Metals (AFF).
• Advisor for Gold Switzerland /
Matterhorn Asset Management
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Ronald-Peter Stoeferle
Research & Portfolio Management
https://www.incrementum.li
https://ingoldwetrust.report
incrementum AG | Im alten Riet 102, 9494 – Schaan/Liechtenstein | +423 237 26 66 | ingoldwetrust@incrementum.li 61

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Mark Justin Valek

Portfolio Management & Research
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About Incrementum AG
Incrementum AG is an owner-managed and fully licensed asset manager & wealth manager based in the
Principality of Liechtenstein.
• Independence is the cornerstone of our

philosophy. The partners own 100% of the
company.
• Our goal is to offer solid and innovative investment

solutions that do justice to the opportunities and
risks of today’s complex and fragile environment.
• Our core competencies are in the areas of:

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63
Selected Testimonials
“Arguably, the In Gold We Trust report is the most

comprehensive analysis of the global political
economy through the lens of the Austrian School of
economic thought. A unique perspective on gold,
with some fantastic charts and always an enjoyable
read.”
John Reade
Chief Market Strategist
World Gold Council
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metals and precious metals equities. A pleasant
read, too – well-researched and well-written.”
Rick Rule
President & CEO
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I trust.”
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66
Contact Us
Incrementum AG
Im alten Riet 102
9494 – Schaan/Liechtenstein
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Email: ingoldwetrust@incrementum.li
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Disclaimer
This publication is for information purposes only. It represents neither investment advice nor an investment analysis or an
invitation to buy or sell financial instruments. Specifically, the document does not serve as a substitute for individual-investment
or other advice. The statements contained in this publication are based on knowledge as of the time of preparation and are
subject to change at any time without further notice.
The authors have exercised the greatest possible care in the selection of the information sources employed. However, they do
not accept any responsibility (and neither does Incrementum AG) for the correctness, completeness, or timeliness of the
information as well as any liabilities or damages, irrespective of their nature, that may result therefrom (including consequential
or indirect damages, loss of prospective profits, or the accuracy of prepared forecasts).
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Chartbook of The IGWT20 Gold Conquering New Record Highs

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“The Dawning of a Golden Decade”

Interested in becoming a Premium Partner?

Newsletter subscription Direct download link of the

“All roads lead to gold.”

Fed BoJ ECB Total S&P 500

Source: Reuters Eikon, Incrementum AG

Recession Fed balance sheet Effective federal funds rate

Source: Reuters Eikon, Incrementum AG

Source: Reuters Eikon, Incrementum AG

Source: Reuters Eikon, Incrementum AG

Global negative yielding debt market value Gold

Source: Bloomberg, Reuters Eikon, Incrementum AG

Source: CBO, Incrementum AG

Recession Financial assets of households/Disposable personal income

Source: Reuters Eikon, Incrementum AG

Source: Nick Laird, goldchartsrus.com, Reuters Eikon, Incrementum AG

Source: http://blog.gorozen.com/blog/commodities-at-a-100-year-low-valuation, Reuters Eikon, Incrementum AG

“Realize that everything is connected

JPY EUR GBP CAD CNY USD CHF

Source: Reuters Eikon, Incrementum AG

Source: Reuters Eikon, Incrementum AG

Source: Reuters Eikon, Incrementum AG

Gold/S&P 500 ratio 90d MA 200d MA

Source: Reuters Eikon, Incrementum AG

-5% -4% -5%

Source: Reuters Eikon (as of 24th of September 2020), Incrementum AG

Risk on Risk off Risk on Risk off Risk on Risk off ?

S&P 500/Gold ratio

Source: wellenreiter-invest.de, Nick Laird, goldchartsrus.com, Incrementum AG

Source: wellenreiter-invest.de, Reuters Eikon, Incrementum AG

Source: Rosenberg Research, Nick Laird, goldchartsrus.com, Incrementum AG

Source: wellenreiter-invest.de, Nick Laird, goldchartsrus.com, Incrementum AG

CHF EUR USD GBP

Source: Reuters Eikon, Nick Laird, goldchartsrus.com, Incrementum AG

North America Europe Asia Other Gold

Source: World Gold Council, Incrementum AG

ETF gold equities in % of US equities

Source: Atlas Pulse, Reuters Eikon, World Gold Council, Incrementum AG

“Everyone’s looking for gold. So, I’ll

Rehan Khan, A Tudor Turk

Gold/Silver ratio Top 10% Bottom 10% Median

Source: World Bank, Wheaton Precious Metals, Incrementum AG

Source: wellenreiter-invest.de, Nick Laird, goldchartsrus.com, Incrementum AG

Silver/S&P 500 ratio

Source: Reuters Eikon, Incrementum AG

Source: Crescat Capital LLC, Reuters Eikon, Incrementum AG

“Never be the first to arrive at a party or the

HUI Index 200d MA 50d MA

Source: Reuters Eikon, Incrementum AG

1.6 Median: 1.46

Source: Nick Laird, goldchartsrus.com, Reuters Eikon, Incrementum AG

Gold HUI/MSCI World ratio

Source: Rosenberg Research, Reuters Eikon, Incrementum AG

SIL/GDX GDXJ/GDX Gold

Source: Reuters Eikon, Incrementum AG

700 08/1976-10/1980 11/2000-03/2008 10/2008-04/2011

Source: Nowandfutures, TheDailyGold.com, Barrons, Nick Laird, goldchartsrus.com, Incrementum AG

“We need to think outside the paradigm of the

Chris Cole, Artemis Capital Management

U.S. Cash U.S. Treasuries S&P500 Commodities Gold CPI/Inflation

Source: World Gold Council, DGYDJ, Voima, Incrementum AG

Source: Reuters Eikon, Incrementum AG

Source: Bloomberg, Haver Analytics, Rosenberg Research, Incrementum AG