Preview Chartbook of the

In Gold We Trust Report 2020

Ronald-Peter Stoeferle
Mark J. Valek
March 2020

1
In Our Partners We Trust

2
The In Gold We Trust report 2020
will be published on May 27th!

Subscribe by following the link:

https://ingoldwetrust.report/igwt/?

3
Executive Summary of the In Gold We Trust 2020 Preview Chartbook

1. Gold - What does the “7th sense of the financial markets” tell us?
• Gold is trading at all time highs in many major currencies with an average rise of 9% in 2020 so far!
2. Recession - Despite numerous indications still a Black Swan?
• Currently, we see the longest, but also the weakest economic expansion in the USA since 1945, which indicates an artificial
maintenance of the economy!
• The monetary U-turn is already happening with rapidly expanding balance sheets and panic rate cuts.
3. Inflation - The ultimate pain-trade?
• In the last decades we underwent ever-weaker price inflation. This is prompting central bankers to take extreme measures.
Even the raising of the inflation target from 2% to 4% is increasingly discussed among central bankers and economists!
4. Gold Mining Stocks - Gold up, gold stocks catching up?
• Gold mining stocks have been performing excellent in the shadow of gold. However, the real breakout may still be pending in
this promising environment for mining stocks!
5. Quo Vadis? - Will gold exceed its all time high in USD?
• Low real interest rates and a rising amount of risk factors (corona crisis, trade war, US elections, etc.) play right into the hands
of gold as a safe haven!

4
1. Gold
What does the “seventh sense of the financial
markets” tell us?

“Where gold speaks every tongue is silent.”

Proverb

5
Annual Gold Performance in Major Currencies
EUR USD GBP AUD CAD CNY JPY CHF INR Average
2001 8.1% 2.5% 5.4% 11.3% 8.8% 2.5% 17.4% 5.0% 5.8% 7.4%
2002 5.9% 24.7% 12.7% 13.5% 23.7% 24.8% 13.0% 3.9% 24.0% 16.2%
2003 -0.5% 19.6% 7.9% -10.5% -2.2% 19.5% 7.9% 7.0% 13.5% 6.9%
2004 -2.7% 5.3% -2.3% 1.8% -1.9% 5.3% 0.7% -3.4% 0.6% 0.5%
2005 36.8% 20.0% 33.0% 28.9% 15.4% 17.0% 37.6% 37.8% 24.2% 26.1%
2006 10.6% 23.0% 8.1% 13.7% 23.0% 19.1% 24.3% 14.1% 20.9% 17.2%
2007 18.4% 30.9% 29.2% 18.3% 12.1% 22.3% 22.9% 21.7% 16.5% 21.7%
2008 10.5% 5.6% 43.2% 31.3% 30.1% -2.4% -14.4% -0.1% 28.8% 15.5%
2009 20.7% 23.4% 12.7% -3.0% 5.9% 23.6% 26.8% 20.1% 19.3% 16.5%
2010 38.8% 29.5% 34.3% 13.5% 22.3% 24.9% 13.0% 16.7% 23.7% 25.2%
2011 14.2% 10.1% 10.5% 10.2% 13.5% 5.9% 4.5% 11.2% 31.1% 11.2%
2012 4.9% 7.0% 2.2% 5.4% 4.3% 6.2% 20.7% 4.2% 10.3% 7.5%
2013 -31.2% -28.3% -29.4% -16.2% -23.0% -30.2% -12.8% -30.1% -18.7% -24.1%
2014 12.1% -1.5% 5.0% 7.7% 7.9% 1.2% 12.3% 9.9% 0.8% 6.2%
2015 -0.3% -10.4% -5.2% 0.4% 7.5% -6.2% -10.1% -9.9% -5.9% -3.8%
2016 12.4% 9.1% 30.2% 10.5% 5.9% 16.8% 5.8% 10.8% 11.9% 12.3%
2017 -1.0% 13.6% 3.2% 4.6% 6.0% 6.4% 8.9% 8.1% 6.4% 6.3%
2018 2.7% -2.1% 3.8% 8.5% 6.3% 3.5% -4.7% -1.2% 6.6% 2.6%
2019 22.7% 18.9% 14.2% 19.3% 13.0% 20.3% 17.7% 17.1% 21.6% 18.3%
2020 ytd 8.8% 8.0% 11.4% 14.5% 11.3% 8.1% 6.8% 6.7% 11.5% 9.7%
Average 9.6% 10.4% 11.5% 9.2% 9.5% 9.4% 9.9% 7.5% 12.6% 10.0%
Source: www.goldprice.org, Incrementum AG, prices per 04/03/2020

6
Gold Performance in Major Currencies (indexed 100 = 01/2009),
01/2009–02/2020
220

200

180

160

140

120

100

80
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

JPY EUR GBP CAD CNY USD CHF

Source: Reuters Eikon, Incrementum AG

7
S&P 500/Gold Ratio, 01/2008–02/2020
1.8

1.6

1.4

1.2

1.0

0.8

0.6

0.4

0.2
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Gold/S&P 500 ratio 90d MA 200d MA

Source: Reuters Eikon, Incrementum AG

8
Dow/Gold Ratio (log), 01/1800–02/2020

100 1913 1971

Gold low
Stocks high
Gold low
Stocks high
Gold low
Gold Standard Era Stocks high

10

Gold low
Stocks high Gold high
Stocks low ?
1
Gold high
Stocks low

Gold high
Stocks low
Gold high Fiat Money Era
Stocks low

0
1800 1820 1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020

Dow/Gold ratio

Source: Nick Laird, goldchartsrus.com, Reuters Eikon, Incrementum AG

9
 Dow/Gold Ratio (log), 01/1800–02/2020
100
Period Date Stock Market (DJIA) Gold price Dow/Gold ratio

Start End Start End Return Start End Return Start End L
J
A-B 02/1802 08/1835 3 23 599% 19 21 7% 0.2 1.1
H
B-C 08/1835 03/1842 23 6 -76% 21 21 0% 1.1 0.3

C-D 03/1842 01/1853 6 21 268% 21 21 0% 0.3 1.0 10

D-E 01/1853 10/1857 21 8 -62% 21 21 0% 1.0 0.4

M
E-F 10/1857 08/1863 8 26 220% 21 27 32% 0.4 0.9

F-G 08/1863 03/1865 26 21 -18% 27 53 95% 0.9 0.4

I
B D
G-H 03/1865 08/1929 21 380 1,705% 53 21 -61% 0.4 18.4 F
1 K
H-I 08/1929 06/1932 380 43 -89% 21 21 0% 18.4 2.1

I-J 06/1932 01/1966 43 984 2,196% 21 36 72% 2.1 27.7

E G
J-K 01/1966 01/1980 984 876 -11% 36 722 1,934% 27.7 1.2 C
K-L 01/1980 08/1999 876 10,829 1,136% 722 258 -64% 1.2 42.1 A

L-M 08/1999 08/2011 10,829 11,614 7% 258 1824 608% 42.1 6.3 0
1800 1820 1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020
Dow/Gold ratio

Source: Nick Laird, goldchartsrus, Reuters Eikon, Incrementum AG

10
Dow Jones Industrial Average (lhs), and Dow/Gold Ratio (rhs), 07/2018–
02/2020
30 000 23

22

27 500 21

20

25 000 19

18

22 500 17

16

20 000 15

DJIA Dow/Gold ratio

Source: Eric Pomboy, Meridian Macro Research LLC, Reuters Eikon, Incrementum AG

11
Gold/MSCI World Ratio (log), 01/1990–02/2020

2.00

1.00

0.50

0.25

First rate cut First rate cut First rate cut

01/2001 09/2001 07/2019
0.13
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Gold/MSCI World ratio
Source: StockCharts.com, Reuters Eikon, Incrementum AG

12
S&P 500 and Gold Performance in Biggest S&P 500 Decline Phases

Biggest S&P 500 declines S&P 500 Gold

09/1976 - 03/1978 -19.4% 53.8%

08/1987 - 12/1987 -33.5% 6.2%

07/1990 - 10/1990 -19.9% 6.8%

03/2000 - 10/2002 -49.0% 12.4%

10/2007 - 03/2009 -56.8% 25.5%

05/2011 - 10/2011 -19.0% 9.4%

Source: BMG Group Inc., Incrementum AG

13
Gold Returns in Various Currencies

Gold Returns 1971-1980 1980-1990 1990-2000 2000-2010 2010-today 2019

in USD 1,268% -22% -28% 281% 39% 19%

in EUR 1,256% -3% -15% 168% 80% 23%

in GBP 1,275% 9% -28% 281% 84% 24%

in CHF 1,098% -24% -26% 148% 32% 19%

in JPY 1,219% -53% -49% 246% 59% 15%

in AUD 1,269% 7% -18% 179% 85% 24%

in CAD 1,282% -23% -10% 177% 75% 16%

in INR 1,274% 30% 33% 313% 114% 23%

in RUB 1,296% -17% 30% 306% 209% 15%

in ZAR 1,251% 142% 73% 357% 189% 27%

in CNY 1,204% 155% 26% 214% 46% 24%

in TRY 1,358% 74% 71% 939% 442% 31%

in BRL 1,360% -24% 72% 278% 232% 27%

in ARS 1,356% 68% -29% 1,370% 1,930% 75%

Source: Michael Nicoletos, Incrementum AG

14
Bloomberg Commodity Index TR (lhs), and US Dollar Index (rhs,
inverted), 01/2009–02/2020
400 70

75
350

80

300
85

250 90

95
200

100

150
105

100 110
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Bloomberg Commodity Index TR US Dollar Index

Source: Reuters Eikon, Incrementum AG

15
Central Bank Gold Reserves in % of Total Global Gold Stock, 1845–2019

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%
1845 1860 1875 1890 1905 1920 1935 1950 1965 1980 1995 2010

Central bank gold reserves in % of total global gold stock

Source: Nick Laird, goldchartsrus.com, World Gold Council, Incrementum AG

16
Central Bank Gold Reserves, in tonnes, Q1/2000–Q4/2019

33 000

28 000

23 000

18 000

13 000

8 000
Q1 2000 Q1 2002 Q1 2004 Q1 2006 Q1 2008 Q1 2010 Q1 2012 Q1 2014 Q1 2016 Q1 2018

Rest of the World Euro Area (incl. ECB) United States Russia China

Source: World Gold Council, Incrementum AG

17
Value of Central Bank Gold Reserves in % of GDP, 2000–2019

7%

6%

5%

4%

3%

2%

1%

0%
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

Russia Euro Area (incl. ECB) USA Rest of the World China

Source: Nick Laird, goldchartsrus.com, World Bank, World Gold Council, Incrementum AG

18
Value of Global Central Bank Gold Reserves in % of Global GDP, 1870–
2019
7%

6%

5%

4%

3%

2%

1%

0%
1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Value of global central bank gold reserves in % of global GDP

Source: Nick Laird, goldchartsrus.com, World Gold Council, ourworldindata.org, IMF, World Bank, Incrementum AG

19
Value of Gold Reserves as % of GDP in Top 10 Countries with Largest
Gold Reserves, 2000 vs. 2019
10%

8.0%
8%

6.9%
6.6%

6% 5.8%

4.2%
4.1%
4%
3.2%

1.9% 1.9% 1.9% 1.8%

2% 1.6%
1.2%
1.0%
0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 0.7%
0.3%
0.1%
0%
China France Germany India Italy Japan Netherlands Russia Switzerland USA

2000 2019
Source: IMF, World Gold Council, Incrementum AG

20
2. Recession
Despite numerous indications, still a Black
Swan?

“Boy, that escalated quickly…!”

Ron Burgundy, “Anchorman”

21
Economic Expansions by Length (lhs), in months, and Magnitude (rhs),
in %
140 8
126
6.9 120
120 7

106
5.6 6
100
5.1 92
4.8 5
80 4.4 4.4 4.3
4.0 73
3.6 4
58
60 3.1
2.9
3
45
39 2.3
40 37 36
2
24
20 1
12

0 0
Oct-1945 Oct-1949 May-1954 Apr-1958 Feb-1961 Nov-1970 Mar-1975 Jul-1980 Nov-1982 Mar-1991 Nov-2001 Jun-2009

Length Magnitude

Source: Department of Commerce, Incrementum AG

22
Global Economic Policy Uncertainty Index, 01/1997–12/2019
350

300

250

200

150

100

50

0
1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

Recession Global Economic Policy Uncertainty Index

Source: Federal Reserve St. Louis, Incrementum AG

23
Recesssion Probability within the Next 12 Months, 01/1990–01/2020
50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Recession Recession probability (12 months ahead)

Source: Federal Reserve NY, Incrementum AG

24
Percentage of US Yield Curve Inversions, 01/1970–02/2020

100%

80% ?

60%

40%

20%

0%
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Recession Percentage of US yield curve inversions

Source: Tavi Costa, Crescat Capital LLC, Incrementum AG

25
ISM Manufacturing Index (lhs), and US 10Y-3M Treasury Spread, in %
(rhs, 1 year advanced), 01/1960–02/2021
75 5

65
3

2
55

45
0

-1
35

-2

25 -3
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

Recession ISM Manufacturing Index US 10Y-3M

Source: franzlischka.blogspot.com, Reuters Eikon, Incrementum AG

26
Distribution of US GDP Projections Made by 87 Analysts, per Year, in %,
2020–2021
30

25

20
Number of analysts

15

10

0
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3
Annual GDP growth

2020 2021

Source: Reuters Eikon, Incrementum AG

27
Federal Funds Rate, in % (lhs), and S&P 500 (log, rhs), 01/1990–02/2020
10
3 200

8
1 600

800

400
2

0 200
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Recession Federal funds rate S&P 500 (log)

Source: Reuters Eikon, Incrementum AG

28
Average Working Hours to Buy the S&P 500, 1860–2020

120

100

80

60

40
Average = 30.9

20

0
1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

Hours Average
Source: Nick Laird, goldchartsrus.com, Reuters Eikon, Incrementum AG

29
3. Inflation
The ultimate pain trade?

“The two main risk factors for the average portfolio are less-
than-expected growth and more-than-expected inflation.”

Ray Dalio

30
Everything Bubble, Q1/1970–Q3/2019

6.0 Everything Bubble

5.5 Housing Bubble

Dot-Com Bubble

5.0

4.5

4.0

3.5

3.0
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Financial assets of households/Disposable personal income

Source: Federal Reserve St. Louis, Incrementum AG

31
Measures of Core Inflation, YoY%, 01/1995–01/2020
5

-1

-2
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Dallas Fed trimmed mean PCE inflation rate Cleveland Fed median CPI
US CPI less food & energy US personal consumption expenditure index
Source: Reuters Eikon, Incrementum AG

32
Purchasing Power Loss of the USD (lhs), and Gold Price Multiple (rhs),
1900–2019
100 90

90 80

80 70

70
60

60
50
50
40
40
30
30

20
20

10 10

0 0
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Purchasing power USD Gold

Source: Nick Laird, goldchartsrus.com, Incrementum AG

33
Money Supply per Capita in the US, in USD, 1960–2019

50 000

45 000

40 000

35 000

30 000

25 000

20 000

15 000

10 000

5 000

0
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Currency in circulation per capita M1 per capita M2 per capita

Source: Nick Laird, goldchartsrus.com, Reuters Eikon, Incrementum AG

34
Milligrams Gold per Euro, 01/1999–02/2020
140

120

100

80
-83%

60

40

20

0
1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

Milligram gold per Euro

Source: Federal Reserve St. Louis, Incrementum AG

35
Euro Purchasing Power Loss, 1999–2020

1.00

0.95

0.90

0.85

0.80

0.75

0.70

0.65
1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020

Actual Planned

Source: Reuters Eikon, Incrementum AG

36
Purchasing Power of Euro and Gold as Measured by the Average
Expenditure per Soccer Player Transfer (log), 1970–2019
10.0

1.0

0.1

0.0
1970 1977 1984 1991 1998 2005 2012 2019
Euro Gold

Source: Nick Laird, goldchartsrus.com, transfermarkt.de, Incrementum AG

37
Inflation by Item in Great Britain

Item Price in 1969 In 1969 ounces of gold Inflation adjusted price Current price In current ounces of gold
Average house price £4,312 292 £71,333 £215,910 185
Average wage (male, full time) £1,560 106 £24,050 £31,834 27
Average wage (female, full time) £847 57 £13,068 £26,103 22
Sports car £890 60 £14,723 £22,160 19
Small car £595 40 £9,860 £16,195 14
Flight (London to Tokyo) £325 22 £5,376 £900 0.77
Colour television (19 inch) £240 16 £3,970 £99 0.085
Package holiday (two weeks in
£78 5.3 £1,290 £950 0.82
Benidorm, August, pp)
Fresh whole chicken 41p 0.028 £6.80 £2.80 0.0024
Instant coffee 21.8p 0.015 £3.60 £1.89 0.0016
Eggs (dozen, large) 20.2p 0.014 £3.34 £1.89 0.0016
Beer (pint of bitter) 10p 0.007 £1.65 £3.70 0.0032
Loaf of white bread 8p 0.005 £1.32 59p 0.0005
Bag of sugar 8p 0.005 £1.32 69p 0.0006
Petrol (litre) 7.3p 0.005 £120 128p 0.0011
Milk (pint) 4.4p 0.003 73p 50p 0.0004
Stamp 2.2p 0.001 36.5p 70p 0.0006
Tube fare (one mile) 2.2p 0.001 36.5p £2.40 0.0021
Electricity (per kwh) 0.78p 0.001 12.9p 14.4p 0.0001
Source: The Guardian (2019), Incrementum AG

38
US CPI Growth by Decade, in %, 1950–2019
158%
160%

140%

120%

100%

80%
64%
60%

40% 34%
28% 28%
24%
19%
20%

0%
1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s
CPI by decade

Source: Bloomberg, Incrementum AG

39
US 10Y Breakeven Inflation Rate (lhs), and Dow/Gold Ratio (rhs),
08/2018–02/2020
2.2 23

2.1 22

2.0
21

1.9
20
1.8
19
1.7
18
1.6

17
1.5

1.4 16

1.3 15
08/2018 11/2018 02/2019 05/2019 08/2019 11/2019 02/2020

US 10Y Breakeven inflation rate Dow/Gold ratio

Source: Reuters Eikon, Incrementum AG

40
 Global Negative-Yielding Debt, in USD tn, 01/2012–02/2020

18

16

14

12

10

0
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Global negative yielding debt market value
Source: Bloomberg, Incrementum AG

41
4. Gold Mining Stocks
Gold up, gold stocks catching up?

“The time to repair the roof is when the sun is shining.”

John F. Kennedy

42
BGMI Bull Markets Since 1942

800
10/1942-02/1946 07/1960-03/1968 12/1971-08/1974 08/1976-10/1980

700 11/2000-03/2008 10/2008-04/2011 01/2016-02/2020

600

500

400

300

200

100 current bull market

0
1 41 81 121 161 201 241 281 321 361 401
Number of Weeks
Source: Nowandfutures, TheDailyGold.com, Barrons, Incrementum AG

43
Annual Over-/Underperformance of the BGMI Compared to Gold in USD,
in %, 1971–2019
125%

100%

75%

50%

25%

0%

-25%

-50%

-75%
1971 1977 1983 1989 1995 2001 2007 2013 2019
Over/Underperformance
Source: Bullion Management Group Inc., Nick Laird, goldchartsrus.com, Incrementum AG

44
MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index, and SPDR Gold Shares,
indexed, 100 = 01/2016, 01/2016–02/2020
160

150

140

130

120

110

100

90
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
MSCI emerging markets currency index SPDR gold shares
Source: Gavekal, Reuters Eikon, Incrementum AG

45
S&P 500 & GDM Index, 01/1994–02/2020

3 500

3 000

2 500

2 000

Inverse
1 500

1 000
Inverse

500

0
1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

S&P 500 GDM

Source: Reuters Eikon, Incrementum AG

46
BGMI/S&P 500 Ratio (log), 01/1940–02/2020

10

0
1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

BGMI/S&P 500 ratio Median (BGMI/S&P 500 ratio)

Source: Nick Laird, goldchartsrus.com, Reuters Eikon, Incrementum AG

47
BGMI/Gold Ratio (log), 01/1940–02/2020
10

1
1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

BGMI/Gold ratio Median (BGMI/Gold ratio)

Source: Nick Laird, goldchartsrus.com, Reuters Eikon, Incrementum AG

48
5. Quo Vadis?
Will gold exceed its all-time high in USD?

“The only permanent truth in finance is that people will get

bullish at the top and bearish at the bottom.”

Jim Grant

49
Actual Gold Price and Projections, in USD, 1971–2049

25 000

20 000

15 000

10 000

from 1971: 7.7% p.a.

5 000
from 1990: 4.8% p.a.
from 2000: 9.5% p.a.

0
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

Actual gold price Compound annual growth rate (from 1971)

Compound annual growth rate (from 1990) Compound annual growth rate (from 2000)
Source: Pierre Lassonde, Reuters Eikon, U.S. Global Investors, Incrementum AG

50
Gold Price Necessary for a Return to the Gold Standard, 1960–2019

25 000

20 000

15 000

10 000

5 000

0
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Actual gold price Gold price necessary to back 40% of M2

Source: Wells Fargo Investment Institute, Reuters Eikon, Incrementum AG

51
300 Years of Gold/Silver Ratio, 1718–2019

120
2019: G/S ratio = 85
~3x above average
~5x above median
100

80

60

40

20

0
1718 1768 1818 1868 1918 1968 2018
Gold/silver ratio Average Median

Source: Nick Laird, goldchartsrus.com, Incrementum AG

52
Gold/Silver Ratio Scenarios (x-axis: Silver Price, y-axis: Gold Price)
Gold/Silver Ratios 10.0 14.3 20.0 25.0 33.3 50.0 100.0

1,000 100.0 70.0 50.0 40.0 30.0* 20.0 10.0

1,100 110.0 77.0 55.0 44.0 33.0 22.0 11.0

1,200 120.0 84.0 60.0 48.0 36.0 24.0 12.0

1,300 130.0 91.0 65.0 52.0 39.0 26.0 13.0

1,400 140.0 98.0 70.0 56.0 42.0 28.0 14.0

1,500 150.0 105.0 75.0 60.0 45.0 30.0* 15.0

1,600 160.0 112.0 80.0 64.0 48.0 32.0 16.0

1,700 170.0 119.0 85.0 68.0 51.0 34.0 17.0

1,800 180.0 126.0 90.0 72.0 54.0 36.0 18.0

1,900 190.0 133.0 95.0 76.0 57.0 38.0 19.0

2,000 200.0 140.0 100.0 80.0 60.0 40.0 20.0

2,100 210.0 147.0 105.0 84.0 63.0 42.0 21.0

2,200 220.0 154.0 110.0 88.0 66.0 44.0 22.0

2,300 230.0 161.0 115.0 92.0 69.0 46.0 23.0

2,400 240.0 168.0 120.0 96.0 72.0 48.0 24.0

Source: Incrementum AG, *Average G/S ratio since 1718 (Nick Laird, goldchartsrus.com)

53
S&P 500/Silver Ratio, 01/1990–02/2020

0.04

0.03

0.02

0.01

0.00
1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020
S&P 500/Silver ratio

Source: Crescat Capital LLC, Tavi Costa, Reuters Eikon, Incrementum AG

54
Commodities – The Biggest Contrarian Investment?
GSCI TR/S&P 500 Ratio, 01/1971–02/2020
10 Gulf War 1990

9 GFC 2008
Oil Crisis 1973/74
8

5
Median: 4.09
4

3
Everything
2 (except commodities)
Bubble
1 Dot-Com Bubble

0
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

SPGSCITR Commodity Index/S&P 500 ratio

Source: Bloomberg, Torsten Dennin, Lynkeus Capital, Incrementum AG

55
The World's Largest Firms by Market Cap* –
Time To Revisit Commodity Stocks?

Source: Gavekal, Incrementum AG. *Not including Berkshire and Saudi Aramco

56
The In Gold We Trust report 2020
will be published on May 27th!

Subscribe by following the link:

https://ingoldwetrust.report/igwt/?

57
Addendum

Because we care…

About our Clients.

About the Society.
About the Future.

58
 About the In Gold We Trust report
• The gold standard of gold research: Extensive annual
study of gold and gold-related capital market
developments

• Reference work for everybody interested in gold and

mining stocks

• International recognition – newspaper articles in more

than 60 countries; almost 2 million readers

• To be published for the 14th time on May 27, 2020, with

versions in English, German, and Chinese

• Further information and all editions can be found at:

https://ingoldwetrust.report/?lang=en

59
 About the Authors
Ronald-Peter Stoeferle, CMT Mark J. Valek, CAIA

• Ronni is managing partner of • Mark is a partner of Incrementum

Incrementum AG and responsible AG and responsible for portfolio
for research and portfolio management and research.
management
• Prior to Incrementum, he was with
• In 2007 he published his first In Merrill Lynch and then for 10 years
Gold We Trust report. Over the with Raiffeisen Capital
years, the study has become one of Management, most recently as fund
the benchmark publications on manager in the area of inflation
gold, money, and inflation. protection.

• Advisor for Tudor Gold Corp. • He gained entrepreneurial

(TUD), a significant explorer in experience as co-founder of philoro
British Columbia’s Golden Triangle. Edelmetalle GmbH.

• Member of the advisory board of

Affinity Metals (AFF).

60
Selected Testimonials

“Arguably, the In Gold We Trust report is the most

comprehensive analysis of the global political
economy through the lens of the Austrian School of
economic thought. A unique perspective on gold,
with some fantastic charts and always an enjoyable
read.”

John Reade
Chief Market Strategist
World Gold Council

61
Selected Testimonials

“A must-read for people who invest in precious

metals and precious metals equities. A pleasant
read, too – well-researched and well-written.”

Rick Rule
President & CEO
Sprott U.S. Holdings, Inc

62
Selected Testimonials

“The annual In Gold We Trust report has become

today’s most widely read and perhaps most
influential piece of research on gold, along with the
major economic and market trends affecting it.”

Brien Lundin
Editor of Gold Newsletter and CEO of the
New Orleans Investment Conference

63
Selected Testimonials

“When it comes to finding the most insightful and

comprehensive annual gold report, in Incrementum
I trust.”

Simon Mikhailovich
Founder
Tocqueville Bullion Reserve

64
 About Incrementum AG

Incrementum AG is an owner-managed and fully licensed asset

❖ Independence is the cornerstone of our
manager & wealth manager based in the Principality of philosophy. The partners own 100% of the
Liechtenstein. company.

❖ Our goal is to offer solid and innovative

investment solutions that do justice to the
opportunities and risks of today’s complex and
fragile environment.

❖ Our core competencies are in the areas of:

o Wealth management
o Precious metal and commodity investments
o Active inflation protection
o Crypto and alternative currency exposure
more information on
www.incrementum.li o Special mandates

65
Contact Us

Incrementum AG
Im alten Riet 102
9494 – Schaan/Liechtenstein
www.incrementum.li
www.ingoldwetrust.li
Email: ingoldwetrust@incrementum.li

66
Disclaimer

This publication is for information purposes only. It represents neither investment advice nor an investment analysis or an invitation to
buy or sell financial instruments. Specifically, the document does not serve as a substitute for individual-investment or other advice.
The statements contained in this publication are based on knowledge as of the time of preparation and are subject to change at any
time without further notice.

The authors have exercised the greatest possible care in the selection of the information sources employed. However, they do not
accept any responsibility (and neither does Incrementum AG) for the correctness, completeness, or timeliness of the information as
well as any liabilities or damages, irrespective of their nature, that may result therefrom (including consequential or indirect damages,
loss of prospective profits, or the accuracy of prepared forecasts).

Copyright: 2020 Incrementum AG. All rights reserved.

67