August 2018

Cameron Alexander, Director Metals Demand Asia, GFMS

1
WORLD SILVER SUPPLY AND DEMAND
Market % ∆ -
Tonnes 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 % ∆ - 2013
share 2016
Mine
Production 25,607 26,993 27,841 27,638 26,502 -4% 3%
Total
Supply 30,712 32,659 32,472 31,396 30,843 -2% 0%
Jewellery &
Silverware 6,862 7,041 7,050 6,376 6,503 26% 4% -4%
Coins &
Bars 7,500 7,281 9,086 6,462 4,699 15% -27% -37%
Industrial
Fabrication 18,804 18,548 18,141 17,942 18,632 59% 4% -1%
Physical
Demand 35,010 34,773 36,244 32,408 31,652 -2% -10%
Physical
Surplus/
Deficit -4,298 (12%) -2,114 (6%) -3,772 (10%) -1,012 (3%) -810 (3%)
Annual
Average Silver
Price US$/oz 23.79 19.08 15.68 17.14 17.05 -1% -28%
2 Thomson Reuters, GFMS / Silver Institute
WORLD SILVER IDENTIFIABLE INVESTMENT VOLUME AND VALUE
Identifiable investment fell approximately 40% y/y in 2017 in volume and value terms

10,000 8
7
8,000
6
6,000
Tonnes

US$ Bn
4,000 4
3
2,000
2
0
1
-2,000 0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Bars & Coins ETP Inventory Build Total Identifiable Investment in US$ Bn (RHS)

Identifiable Investment is the sum of bars, coins and ETPs.

3 Thomson Reuters, GFMS / Silver Institute

SOLAR DEMAND – SILVER POWDER PRODUCTION
Solar Silver Powder Production

3,500
China
3,000
US
2,500 Japan
Tonnes

2,000

1,500

1,000

500

0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

4 Thomson Reuters, GFMS / Silver Institute

WORLD PHYSICAL SILVER DEMAND (Tonnes)

Industrial Jewellery & Silverware Retail Investment

9,306 8,702 5,868 7,578 7,325 8,534

6,687 8,010 4,774
7,831

7,342 7,432 7,191 8,705 8,943 9,017 8,320

7,522 8,004
7,156

19,966 16,427 19,715 20,575 18,664 18,804 18,548 18,141 18,632

17,942

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

5 Thomson Reuters, GFMS / Silver Institute

SILVER MINE PRODUCTION BY REGION AND ANNUAL CHANGE
Global mine production declined by 4.1% in 2017 to a total of 852 Moz (26,502 t), the
second consecutive fall. At the regional level, losses in the Americas were partly offset by
gains in India and Kazakhstan.
Silver Output by Region 2017 3-year CAGR in Mine Production
30,500 World Silver Mine Production,
Tonnes
Africa 5%
Oceania 2%
4%
25,500
Europe South
13%
4%
America
32% 20,500
3%
15,500
2%
10,500
1%

Asia 5,500 0%
21%

500 -1%

2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
North
America
28%
Thomson Reuters, GFMS / Silver Institute
6
SILVER OUTPUT BY SOURCE METAL

Source Metal Index, 100=2007

Primary Silver Mine Supply % of World Production
primary silver supply as % of total 180

2011 29
170
2014 30
160
28
2017
150

140

World Silver Production by Source – primary, Lead/Zinc, Copper, Gold 130

120
12% 13% 13% 13% 12% 13%

20% 21% 21% 22% 23% 23% 110

100
38% 37% 37% 35% 35% 36%
90

80
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
28% 29% 30% 29% 30% 28%

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 primary lead/zinc copper gold
primary lead/zinc copper gold other

7 Thomson Reuters, GFMS / Silver Institute

ABOVE GROUND STOCKS

Industry
100,000 Government Custodian Vault Stocks by Region (exc
90,000 Exchange stocks allocated to ETPs
80,000 ETPs North
America
Custodian Vaults 18%
70,000
60,000 Europe
Tonnes

33%
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
Asia
0 49%

Thomson Reuters, GFMS / Silver Institute

GLOBAL ETP HOLDINGS, MARKET SHARE END-2017

Other
800 12%

700
Sprott
600 8%

500
ETF
Moz

400 Securities
9%
300
200
Ishares
Central 48%
100 Fund of
Canada
0 11%
2000

2006

2012
2002
2004

2008
2010

2014
2016

ZKB
12%

9 Thomson Reuters, GFMS / Silver Institute

LONG TERM GOLD/SILVER RATIO

10 Thomson Reuters, GFMS / Silver Institute

LONG TERM GOLD & SILVER PRICE

11 Thomson Reuters, GFMS / Silver Institute

LONG TERM SILVER v S & P 500 INDEX

12 Thomson Reuters, GFMS / Silver Institute

SILVER PRICE FORECASTS

Silver
AVG AVG AVG
Q1 18 Q2 18 Q3 18 Q4 18
2018 2019 2020

High
17.56 17.23 17.60 17.75 17.75 20.30 21.80

Average
16.75 16.53 16.20 16.20 16.42 18.00 18.90
Low
16.18 16.03 15.25 15.20 15.20 16.10 17.20

Thomson Reuters, GFMS / Silver Institute