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during the specified time frame. This lightning surge the log-normal distribution are not uniquely defined for
current, in addition to the amplitude, has a specific the entire world. Significant differences exist between
duration of the surge front (and the wave duration as different regions, influenced by orographic and other
well). In other words, correlation between lightning surge parameters. Additionally, there are appreciable seasonal
current amplitude and front duration (or steepness) is differences in some regions, such as for example
taken into account while deriving the probability of infamous winter lightning in Japan [8]. Also, differences
transmission line tower lightning incidence. Only the arise between statistical data provided by different
downward lightning is considered is this process, as is researchers due to differences in measuring equipment
customarily done. and other factors, which subsequently influence derived
parameters of the log-normal distributions. Whence,
2 MATHEMATICAL MODEL definition of a median value and a standard deviation for
Derivation of the mathematical model for the the log-normal distribution of the lightning surge
assessment of lightning surge current parameters parameters (e.g. amplitudes) is still a matter of ongoing
associated with backflashover analysis on transmission research throughout the world.
line towers incoming to the HV substation is hereafter In order to appreciate the differences between lightning
presented. surge parameter distributions, a brief summary
aggregated from several different sources, is presented in
2.1 Lightning stroke current parameters Table I. Approximately 90% of all lightning strokes are
negative in polarity, while the remaining 10% of the
Lightning is a stochastic natural phenomenon, which lightning strokes are positive. Due to the fact that
has a distinct waveshape, described by four basic negative polarity lightning strikes will be hereafter
parameters: amplitude, duration of the current front, mainly treated, only the parameters for the statistical
duration of the current wave and polarity. It has been distribution of amplitudes, of the first negative lightning
established that a cumulative probability distribution of strokes, are given in Table I. Exclusion of positive
the lightning surge parameters (e.g. peak values) follow a polarity lightning from the analysis renders this paper
logarithmic - normal distribution [6, 7]. Statistical more legible, while maintaining full generality of the
variation of the logarithm of random variable from log- matter at hand.
normal distribution follows the normal (Gaussian)
distribution. Hence, one can easily determine the Table I: Parameters of log-normal distribution of lightning
cumulative probability that a certain value of random current amplitudes.
variable will be exceeded, e.g. [7].
In accordance with the above stated facts, mentioned
cumulative probability of log-normal distribution (e.g. Parameter Iµ (kA) σ ln I Lightning stroke type
probability that a certain value of lightning current First negative, from
amplitude will be exceeded) can be evaluated by the 30.1 0.76
[7, 9]
following expression [6, 7]:
I (kA) 31.1 0.48 First negative, from [7]
P ( I ) = 0.5 ⋅ erfc(u 0 ) (1)
First negative (Japan),
39.2 0.76
where from [10]
2 ∞
(−1) n ⋅ u 02 n+1 It needs to be accentuated that Table I presents data for
erfc(u 0 ) = 1 − ∑ (2)
the lightning current distributions to HV transmission
π n =0 n!⋅( 2n + 1)
lines and should not be used instead of the so-called
represents a complementary error function, with ground level distributions, e.g. [11, 12].
Above introduced log-normal distribution (first
ln( I ) − ln( I µ )
u0 = (3) negative current amplitudes) is often approximated with a
2 ⋅ σ ln I well-known Anderson-Eriksson expression [13, 14]:
This expression holds both for negative and positive 1
P( I ) = 2.6
(4)
polarity lightning strikes. The median value ( I µ ) and ⎛ I ⎞
1+ ⎜ ⎟
standard deviation ( σ ln I ) of the lightning current peak ⎝ 31 ⎠
values from (3) are defined in e.g. [6, 7], both for the first
negative, subsequent negative and first positive polarity A comparison between log-normal distributions given
lightning strikes. by: Iµ = 31.1 kA, σlnI = 0.48 and Iµ = 30.1 kA, σlnI = 0.76,
It needs to be stated, however, that this parameters of with Anderson-Eriksson expression is given in Figure 1.
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It can be appreciated from Figure 1 that there are Portal of the transmission line in the substation is
significant differences between these distributions, owing numbered with 0, while subsequent towers bear
to the adopted median value and standard deviation. First consecutive numbers; with arbitrary tower described by
above given set of values (Iµ = 31.1 kA, σlnI = 0.48) for the value k. Span lengths between neighboring towers are
the log-normal distribution is often recommended [7], also denoted in this figure, with spans associated with k-
although better approximation could be obtained for th tower having lengths ℓk (left) and ℓk+1 (right).
specific region (and season if needed). Anderson- An expected number of lightning strikes into the
Ericsson expression agrees well with a log-normal arbitrary k-th span of the HV overhead transmission line,
distribution described by the parameters Iµ = 30.1 kA, during the specific time window, can be determined by
σlnI = 0.76, which can be nicely observed from Figure 1 the following general expression:
as well. It can also be deduced from Figure 1 that this
later distribution as well as equation (4) give higher
k
N s = N g ⋅k S s ⋅τ (5)
probabilities for high-amplitude lightning currents.
where:
Ng - ground flash density, nr. strokes /( km 2 ⋅ year ) ,
k
Ss - surface of the electric shadow (attractive
surface) of the k-th span, km2,
τ - time window, years.
Ground flash density can be obtained from the
following well-known expression [14]:
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lightning strikes end-up on tower tops and shield wires in k
nt ( I = I k ) = 1 (15)
the near-vicinity of the towers. More elaborate analysis of
the lightning stroke distribution along the transmission then equation (14) yields the associated probability, as
line spans can be found in [17]. Hence, expected number follows:
of lightning strikes into the k-th tower (and shield wire in
its near-vicinity) can be approximated with a following 1.11
P( I k ) = k
(16)
expression: Nt
k
Nt = ξ ⋅ (N
k
s+
k +1
Ns ) (10) By introducing (13) into equation (16), it yields:
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2.3 Correlation of lightning current parameters Equation (21), with introduction of (22) – (24), present
conditional probability for the first positive lightning
Analysis carried out in the previous section does not
stroke as well, only the parameters of the statistical
say anything about front duration (or steepness) of the
distributions are different, along with a correlation
lightning current front or wave duration, associated with
coefficient, [7]. Table II summarizes several median
a direct lightning strike into the tower top and its vicinity.
values and standard deviations for the log-normal
Hence, any lightning surge current front / crest duration
distribution of the (negative polarity) lightning current
(or steepness) and wave duration can be associated with
front duration.
this negative lightning strike current amplitude.
It is a known fact that the front duration of the Table II: Parameters of log-normal distribution of lightning
lightning current has a significant influence on the current front durations.
backflashover analysis, e.g. [5, 7]. Lightning strikes with
shorter front times generate larger voltages across
insulator strings during backflashover phenomenon, and Parameter t fµ (µs) σ ln t Lightning stroke type
vice versa. Additionally, a lightning protection design of
First negative, from
a substation is greatly affected by the assumed lightning 3.83 0.55
[7, 9]
stroke current front duration [11]. Whence, it would be
appreciable to correlate probability of lightning strike t f (µs) 5.5 0.70 First negative, from [7]
amplitude occurrence with a specific wave crest (front) First negative (Japan),
4.5 0.37
duration (or steepness). Less important is the lightning from [10]
current wave duration, which might be of interest in cases
where the energy absorption of the MO surge arrester is In order to emphasize the influence of the current front
studied. duration on the distribution of the lightning current
In order to achieve this correlation of lightning surge amplitudes, conditional distribution obtained from
current parameters one needs to employ a conditional equations (21) – (24) with several different lightning
probability. Conditional probability of two mutually current front durations, is plotted in Figure 3. Here, eight
dependent lightning stroke current parameters, e.g. different (consecutive) current front durations were
amplitude and front / crest duration, both drawn from the selected, ranging from 1 µs to 8 µs. Following values of
log-normal distribution, is given by the following the statistical distributions were utilized: Iµ = 30.1 kA,
equation [7]: σlnI = 0.76, tfµ = 3.83 µs, σlnt = 0.55 and ρc = 0.47, as
P ( I ≥ I k | t = t f ) = 0.5 ⋅ erfc(u 0 ) (21) recommended in [7].
b = ln( I µ ) + ρ c ⋅
σ ln I
σ ln t
[
⋅ ln(t f ) − ln(t fµ ) ] (23)
σ = σ ln I ⋅ 1 − ρ c2 (24)
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than those with longer front duration. At the same time,
shorter front duration of lightning stroke current produces
greater probability of the backflashover (especially in
combination with other unfavorable tower parameters,
e.g. high footing resistance). Additionally, conditional
probability relating lightning current amplitude and other
lightning parameters, such as: front steepness and stroke
charge (again both for the negative and positive polarity
lightning strokes) is given by the expression analog to
(21), but with different median values and standard
deviations of log-normal distributions (as well as
different correlation coefficients between statistical
parameters), [7].
However, it needs to be stated here that, apparently,
there is no correlation between lightning current
amplitude and wave duration, which means that they are
treated as two independent statistical variables [7]. This Figure 4. Statistical distribution of lightning current
means that following equation for expressing cumulative amplitudes exceeding different wave durations.
probability holds:
Previously presented mathematical model,
P( I ≥ I k , t ≥ t h ) = 0.25 ⋅ erfc(u 0 I ) ⋅ erfc(u 0t ) (26) accompanied with conditional probabilities of occurrence
with of lightning stroke currents having different front
durations (or steepness) as well as wave durations, gives
ln( I k ) − ln( I µ ) a basis for the estimation of probabilities associated with
u0 I = (27) occurrence of lightning currents striking several first
2 ⋅ σ ln I
transmission lines towers extending from the HV
ln(t h ) − ln(t hµ ) transformer station (switchyard). Hence, this
u 0t = (28) mathematical model facilitates definition of all lightning
2 ⋅ σ ln th stroke parameters of negative polarity (i.e. amplitude,
front duration and wave duration), associated with direct
Here, Iµ and σlnI again represent median value and
lightning strikes into the transmission line towers
standard deviation for the log-normal distribution of the
incoming to the HV substation.
lightning current amplitude, respectively. These values
were introduced in Table I. Values thµ and σlnth represent 3 NUMERICAL EXAMPLE
median value and standard deviation for the log-normal
distribution of the lightning current wave duration, A rather typical double-circuit 2x220 kV overhead
respectively. Table III summarizes two different set of transmission line, incoming to the TS 220/110 kV, will
parameters for the log-normal distribution of the be employed for the numerical example. This
(negative polarity) lightning current wave duration. transmission line has a single shield wire. Table IV
presents average heights (hk) and span lengths (ℓk) of the
Table III: Parameters of log-normal distribution of lightning shield wire for the several first transmission line spans, as
current wave durations. seen from the transformer station at hand.
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Keraunic level of the region where this portion of the tower, while other three towers have basically identical
transmission line (as well as associated transformer current amplitude distributions, as a function of time.
station) is located has a level of Td = 50. Furthermore,
due to small variations in span length and other
uncertainties in tower parameters, the coefficient ξ is
chosen to have a value of 0.3 in all cases.
According to the presented theoretical background and
above derived mathematical model, probability of
occurrence of the lighting current amplitudes, striking
first four towers from the substation at hand, have been
computed by equation (17). Computation results are
presented in Table V, for three different time windows of
100, 200 and 400 years. From these probabilities, in
accordance with expression (19), current amplitudes were
derived. These current amplitudes, of negative polarity,
will not be exceeded more than once during the selected
time windows of 100, 200 and 400 years. These
computation results are presented in Table VI. It needs to
be mentioned at this point that currents with amplitudes
from Table VI could have arbitrarily long front durations Figure 5. Expected lightning current amplitudes, striking
as well as wave durations. first four transmission line towers, as a function of time.
Table V: Probability of exceeding lightning current In order to associate the specific lightning current front
amplitudes striking first four transmission line towers, durations with above computed lightning current
during time window of 100, 200 and 400 years. amplitudes (according to the data presented in Table V
and Table VI), a conditional probability, graphically
Tower P( I k ) depicted in Figure 3, must be employed. Hence, by using
(k)
τ = 100 years τ = 200 years τ = 400 years
data from Table V and Table VI in combination with
Figure 3, specific front durations associated with each of
1 0.0862 0.0431 0.0216 the current amplitudes have been obtained. Computed
results are presented in Table VII.
2 0.0582 0.0291 0.0146
3 0.0596 0.0298 0.0149 Table VII: Expected lightning current front durations
striking first four transmission line towers, during time
4 0.0587 0.0293 0.0147 window of 100, 200 and 400 years.
3 90 118 155 It can be seen from Table VII that the expected front
duration for lightning currents ranges mainly between
4 90 119 156
4 µs and 5 µs.
If one should for example warrant a lightning current
Additionally, Figure 5 presents expected lightning with 100 kA amplitude and front duration of exactly 1 µs,
current amplitudes striking first four transmission line than the above described mathematical model could
towers as a function of time window. Again, these current produce an expected number of lightning strikes (during
amplitudes could have arbitrarily long front duration and specified time window) into the treated towers. Analysis
wave duration. It can be seen from this figure that lower carried out with the input data from Table IV suggests
values of current amplitudes are associated with the first that it would take, statistically speaking, over 8000 years
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for a single lightning stroke with 100 kA amplitude and protection analysis, with its associated lightning stroke
1 µs front duration to be expected to strike the first current parameters. This is due to high probability of
transmission line tower (as seen from the substation). occurrence of a backflashover on this tower.
This is a very long time frame, which suggests that
lightning current with such strict parameters (100 kA 4 DISCUSSION OF RESULTS
amplitude and 1 µs front duration) is highly unlikely to It is quite obvious that the selection of parameters for
strike the first tower in the concrete example. the log-normal distribution of lightning currents will
Additionally, a single lightning stroke with 100 kA affect the above presented analysis. This is due to
amplitude and 2 µs front duration is expected to strike the differences found between these parameters, emanating
first tower once every 950 years. Hence, less severe from measurements carried out on different structures,
lightning stroke current parameters are more appropriate with different measuring equipment and conducted in
in this case, such as for example: 134 kA amplitude with different regions of the world. The correlation coefficient
front duration of 4.8 µs for the first transmission line between lightning current amplitude and front duration
tower. This analysis could be extended to and any other (or front steepness) is of paramount significance. It can
transmission line tower as well. be appreciated from the above presented data that it
In order to facilitate a complete definition of lightning varies in a rather broad range, which further complicates
stroke current, the current wave duration should be lightning related analysis. Additionally, lightning current
provided as well, although it is less important for the distributions to HV transmission lines and those to
mentioned backflashover analysis. Hence, by using data ground level differ substantially. Hence, notwithstanding
from Table V and Table VI, along with Figure 4, the huge amount of research carried out in this field, it is
mathematical model produces expected duration of the still obvious that a unified set of parameters for the log-
current wave for the first four towers within the same normal distributions of lightning current parameters are
time windows of 100, 200 and 400 years. Obtained needed. However, this might prove to be a difficult task
computation results are presented in Table VIII. to accomplish, especially in the light of the different
influential factors affecting these statistical variables. The
Table VIII: Expected lightning current wave durations
numerical example given in this paper is thus processed
striking first four transmission line towers, during time
window of 100, 200 and 400 years. with the latest set of parameters of the associated log-
normal distribution, proposed by the IEEE Working
t ≥ th (µs)
Group [7].
Tower Furthermore, a distribution of lightning strikes along
(k)
τ = 100 years τ = 200 years τ = 400 years the HV transmission line spans is of significant
importance. It is known that this distribution is not
1 45 45 40
uniform and that the lightning strikes tend to be
2 50 42 20 concentrated around the transmission line towers. A
value of 0.6 (i.e. ξ = 0.3) has been often associated with
3 48 42 20
the probability of lightning strikes to the towers and their
4 50 42 20 vicinity, although with longer spans this probability
decreases in accordance with the equation (12). It needs
Finally, from the above presented results, one can to be accentuated here that the exactly defined boundary
conclude that lightning stroke parameters appropriate for on the transmission line span, beyond which a lightning
the transmission line tower backflashover analysis (and strike would not produce a backflashover on the tower,
subsequent HV substation overvoltage protection does not exist. Statistically speaking, even the lightning
analysis) could be selected as follows: strikes on the middle of the span could produce a
- negative polarity direct lightning stroke into the backflashover on the associated towers. However, this
top of the first transmission line tower, imaginary length of the span, which determines the above
- 134 kA amplitude, mentioned probability of lightning strikes to the tower, is
- 4.8 µs front duration, according to [17] estimated to be a 55% of the half span
- wave duration in excess of 40 µs. on each side of the tower.
In order to appreciate the influence of the lightning
A lightning stroke current with these parameters will strike distribution along the transmission line span, the
occur (statistically speaking) only once every 400 years. lightning incidence of the second tower from the treated
Additionally, if one of the neighboring transmission line example is again computed, but now with three different
towers have significantly high tower footing resistance values of the parameter ξ. Different values of this
(i.e. impulse impedance), it should be considered as a parameter in turn define different concentrations of the
viable candidate for the HV substation overvoltage lightning strikes in the near-vicinity of the tower at hand.
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Computed results are graphically displayed in Figure 6. 6 REFERENCES
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