Brexit, Covid-19 and Trade Negotiations: What can sheep tell us?

 Sheep farming is big business in Wales which has a flock of 9.5 million sheep here out
number people 3 to 1.
 But coronavirus shut down the service sector overnight a third of the land market gone,
so what can sheep tell us about trade exists and British farming.
According to Alice Ross, EDITOR OF TRADE SECRETS, FT
"Is there a risk that the UK farming industry as we know it won't survive in its
current form."
According to John Davies, NATIONAL FARMERS' UNION CYMRU PRESIDENT
"It's really important that we take these challenges one at a times you know we
absolutely must deal with coronavirus that's our first priority now that's got a
massive impact on all like, cultural markets at the present time next we need to
work from that and ensure that is right, and then obviously we have the
agricultural bill that will set the standards and the way you trade."
 Some farmers like Gary worried about leaving the European Union long before the
coronavirus hit.
 The domestic market split between the service sector and retail but the remaining third
of all the UK lamb is exported and until now more than 90 percent of exports have gone
to the EU.
 So the issue well when it comes to trades getting on with your neighbors is very
important.
 The UK needs to work out how to move from being inside the tariff free EU customs
union to being outside that Union, and it needs to negotiate all this in the middle of a
pandemic without face-to-face meetings.
 EU tariffs on agriculture products are higher than average, that means UK Sheep are at
particular risk we at particular risk.
 Unless the UK signs a preferential trade deal with the EU its exports could be hit with
the standard tariffs the EU charges all members of the World Trade Organisation.
 For lamb, that ranges from 40 to 80 percent, 40 percent of 80 pounds is 32 pounds
which would bring the price of the sheep up to 112 pounds. Passing the extra cost on
the consumer would hit demand but if farmers were forced to pay they could end up
operating as a loss.
 Before coronavirus the National Farmers Union warned that no deal breaks it would be
catastrophic for British farming. UK politicians are insisting they will not extend the
current transition period beyond the end of the year, that means leaving without a deal
is still a real risk.
 The lack of trade deal with EU could result in a serious blow to the export of UK animal
products. The UK government could cut tariffs to stop a rise in food prices actually
increasing imports from overseas. And trade barriers between UK and the EU could
make it harder for farmers to get medicines, fertilizers, or immigrant labor.
 The EU is the UK's largest trading partner, in 2018 UK exports to the EU were 291
billions that's 45% of all UK exports. UK imports from the EU were 357 billion or 53% of
all UK imports. If these exports and imports get hit with tariffs that could be difficult for
various industries not just farming.
 Through Brexit, Britian voted to go it alone. Some saw clouds overhead others through a
light shining through, but few predicted a global pandemic could also be on a the
horizon. Now, farmers must struggle with this new challenge.
 The political and economical landscape has changed. New trade deals will change the
landscape once more.