ISSUE 68 – DECEMBER 2010

THE SOCIETY OF TECHNICAL ANALYSTS

A professional network for technical analysts

MARKET TECHNICIAN
THE JOURNAL OF THE STA

IN THIS ISSUE
T. Pelc The rhythm of time ....................................................................................................1
R. Miller Point and figure charting...........................................................................................5
J. Monfort Acute monthly reversals (AMRs) .............................................................................7
D. McMinn DJIA peaks, seasonality and market outcomes ..................................................10
D. Watts Bytes and Pieces ......................................................................................................13

STA Diploma results ....................................................................................................................................6

 Welcome to the new look journal. We have tried to give it a more 21st-century
style and to tie it in with our website. If anyone has any comments or
suggestions please e-mail them to Katie at info@sta-uk.org

This year's IFTA conference was held in Berlin in the week that the city was
celebrating the 20th anniversary of the Wall coming down. As usual it
provided an excellent forum for technical analysts around the world to meet
and exchange views. One day of the conference was devoted to the energy
markets and we hope that some of the speakers will submit articles to the
journal in the coming months. Next year's conference will be held in Sarajevo
on 6-8 October.

FOR YOUR DIARY

TUESDAY January 11th
Panel Discussion
Commodities ............................................................................................Brenda Sullivan, Sucden Financial
Equities .......................................................................................................................Peter Goodburn, Wavetrack
Fixed income .........................................................................................................Tim McCullough, Lloyds TSB
Foreign exchange...................................................................................................................William Moore, RBS

TUESDAY February 8th

Market analysis using the
Elliott Wave Theory ...................................................................Thomas Anthonj, JP Morgan Chase

TUESDAY March 8th

The 3T methodology
(trend, targets, timing) ...........Jean-Francois Owczarczak, Management Joint Trust, Geneva

THE SOCIETY OF TECHNICAL ANALYSTS COPY DEADLINE FOR THE NEXT ISSUE FEBRUARY 2011
www.sta-uk.org PUBLICATION OF THE NEXT ISSUE MARCH 2011
 MARKET TECHNICIAN

the natural cycle of the Earth. If we take

The rhythm of time a top down approach (big picture to
small picture), as we should in technical
analysis, we see the Earth has roughly a
By Tom Pelc MSTA CFTe 26,000 year cycle (25,820 years). This
is how long it takes to complete the
procession of the Equinoxes (for the
The key theme of my talk to the STA earlier this year was the third tenet of Earth to travel past all 12 signs of the
technical analysis – “History repeats itself”. There is a cyclical nature to Zodiac).
financial market oscillations mainly because what we are actually analysing is
human investment behaviour. This is arguably driven by three primary We are currently in Pisces (the Fish)
moving to Aquarius (Water). Arguably
emotions “fear, greed and hope”, whatever the culture you look at. People
an indication of major change in our
react to a predictable series of emotions in their investments – from being spiritual belief systems/behaviour, but
cautious about investing to eventually facing fear and disgust, (being closely definitely a cycle change period in late
linked to Dow Theory) – and this forms the basis of a simple Sine wave, which 2012 (December) for the Earth.
in turn is one cycle. The cycle repeats itself over time in a similar rhythm but
Splitting this grand cycle into sub
maybe not exactly in the same way.
structures we can see 5 smaller cycles
(5,125 years each – from the Mayans),
Conviction with our current sub structure starting
DOW THEORY
Enthusiasm around 3113BC and finishing around 21
Distribution Dec 2012.
Greed

5,125 years =
Price Development

Confidence Hope 13 smaller cycles called Baktuns

Growing recognition Disbelief 1 Baktun =
394 tropical years
Participation
(144,000 days Fibonacci no.)
Fear

Thus we are in the 13th Baktun

Caution Apprehension cycle 1618-2012 according to the
Skepticism Shock & fear Mayan calendar.

Accumulation
Disdain
Looking for when markets may turn,
using cycles gives us the timing element
for strategic activity (50% of the
equation, the other half is focusing on
price). The premise is that we, as
people, manipulate our measurement of
time (and the calendar) and the
suggestion is maybe we should use
external influences such as planetary
Chart 1: The Grand Cycle – The Heavens and the Earth
Time Surrender
Disgust
movements, or lunar cycles, or the
actual natural Earth cycle for timing
events. The argument is there may be
little dualism between natural events
and the reactions of the financial
markets.
There is a lot of speculation about the
2012 date generally; it is significant in
Grand Cycle
Procession of the Equinoxes = 25,820 yrs
Earth transits through each of the 12 Zodiac signs
= 2152 yrs approx each
The Grand Cycle – The Heavens
and the Earth
But measuring time is an interesting
exercise since humans have manipulated
our measurement of it in history. Today
we use the Gregorian calendar (still out
by 26 seconds a year) which was a
product of its predecessor the Roman
calendar. Why do we have 28 days in
February and 31 in July and August? It
is thanks to Augustus Caesar. But 90
countries today use the alternative lunar
calendar in their culture – namely the 13
months calendar with 28 days per
month.
• 65% of US publicly traded companies
use January to measure the fiscal
year.

• In the UK, pre-government owned

companies eg, BT Group and National
Grid, continue to use the
government’s financial year which
ends on the last day of March.

• Many universities have a fiscal year

We enter the age of Aquarius in 2012 We enter the age of Aquarius in 2012 ending in summer months

ISSUE 68 – DECEMBER 2010 1

This article is an abridged version of a talk given to the STA on 8th June
MARKET TECHNICIAN

• In Australia and New Zealand the

Chart 2: Three cycle principles
fiscal year runs from 1st July to 30th
June

Whatever the measure, the cycle is still

the same – namely driven by the
primary emotions. If we can get the
data of an instrument going back we can
look for the three cyclic principles to
measure forward the next cycle. We
need the amplitude (how big a cycle
gets), the period, (distance between
cycle troughs), and phase distance
between varying cycle troughs. (Chart 2)

When the cycle is not exactly rhythmic

we can use various cyclic principles to
smooth the pattern from “summation”
to “synchronicity” and we can use
the concept of proportionality. The
amplitude of a 20 day cycle should, in Chart 4

theory, be roughly double a 10 day

Long legged Doji & Sankawa yoi no myojyo
cycle. The best situation is if you have a Simple example = next cycle
cycle which has a turn confirmed by a date end of July 2010 Kenuki
price pattern or you could try summation
to generate pattern signals. (Chart 3).
Takuri

Chart 3
Kirikomi
H

Doji
S S Cable Subtract Upside Upside Upside Upside Upside Upside Upside

NL
High RULE OF 7 Additive Divide Given Multiply Given Add

minus Constanct C Sequence S C/S Range R R*(C/S ) Low Objectives

Low 7.00 1.00 7.00 0.32 2.26 1.3682 3.6236

01/06/2003 1.6904 7.00 2.00 3.50 0.32 1.13 1.3682 2.4959

01/06/2001 1.3682 7.00 3.00 2.33 0.32 0.75 1.3682 2.1200

Total 0.32 7.00 4.00 1.75 0.32 0.56 1.3682 1.9321

Yo-sen tsutsumi
7.00 5.00 1.40 0.32 0.45 1.3682 1.8193

7.00 6.00 1.17 0.32 0.38 1.3682 1.7441

7.00 7.00 1.00 0.32 0.32 1.3682 1.6904

Cycle

The best situation, is if you have a

cycle which has a turn confirmed by
a price pattern, you could also try
summation to generate pattern
signals eg. previous Double Top.
A 36 week cycle for GBP/USD (chart 4)
sees technical patterns signal turns on
cycle dates using Japanese candlesticks
and added to this is a Lucas table (using
ratios of 7 compared to range extremes
and added to a sequence low – key is the
results column on the table far right.)
Chart 5
When the Earth is at the mid-point betwixt two Monthly Dow Jones
planets 45, 90, 135 and 180 degrees are
considered as difficult angles and tough for
stocks.
Aug 24 1987 –five planets were on the same
ecliptic longitude, this last happened 800 years Aug 1987
ago
Aug 6 2008 – Mars-Uranus crash cycle

AUG 1 2010 - +/- 1 week 5 planets

This is a simple example of just aligned Cardinal Climax not happened in 1,000 Aug 2008
measuring time as a static cycle, but we years watch out stock market and the
world………
can use more esoteric techniques such

2 ISSUE 68 – DECEMBER 2010


Chart 6: UK 10 Year generic yield – weekly and 39 week cycle
39 week cycle
Chart 7: USD Index – Weekly chart with 39 week cycle
KENUKI TOP
Chart 8: Nymex Oil – 25.8 months cycle (sub cycle = 8.6 months x3)
Very simplified E-Wave count with the cycle on
a logarithmic chart
MARKET TECHNICIAN
as sunspot activity or lunar cycles
or even in some cases planetary
alignments.
Professor Tchijevsky in the 1920s
suggested that, as sunspot activity
approaches its maximum, the number
of important mass historical events,
taken as a whole increases, approaching
its maximum during the sunspot
maximum and decreasing to its
minimum during the periods of the
sunspot minimum. Sunspots reach a
maximum about every 11 years, but
successive maxima have spots with
reversed magnetic polarity, thus the
whole cycle is 22.2 years long. We are in
a quiet period at the moment but huge
activity could come between 2011 and
2012 – be warned.
When China revalued the Renminbi on
21st July 2005, it was the closest the
Moon was to the Earth in eight years.
My suspicion is that, as a result of their
cultural heritage, they are extremely
aware of important natural dates. On
the Summer Solstice, 21st June 2010,
another China story hit the market.
The authorities announced they were
adopting a more “flexible” exchange
rate policy, moving from the US dollar
peg.
The charts 6, 7 and 8 are examples of
some of the cycles I have observed. The
optimal cycle across many markets is
the 37.33 week cycle as my studies have
concluded between 36-39 weeks is
where most cycles for many assets
cluster. Martin Armstrong is a strong
proponent of this 37.33 week cycle and
I dedicated a slide in my presentation to
his invaluable work.
To conclude, I illustrated two major
cycles, one for fixed income products
and the other the decennial cycle of the
stock market in years ending with a 7
based on Gann’s original observations.
For the fixed income example, calendar
weeks 32-34 in 2005 since 1980 were
88% time positive for long bonds i.e.
yields fell for that three week period on
a net basis. I gave numerous examples
of how this cycle is still going on; not
only has the curve in 2s30s in Swaps
flattened overall in that time period but
also the butterfly trade 2s10s30s was
lower (which is like trading 2s10s vs
10s30s).
ISSUE 68 – DECEMBER 2010 3
MARKET TECHNICIAN

One example of this fixed income cycle

which is still on going and relevant for Chart 9: US 2s10s30s fly (using Swaps) Daily chart 2006
this August calendar weeks 32-34.
(Chart 9) 2006

Finally the decennial cycle for the

Dow Jones with bear markets, years
7 th Aug
ending with a 7 (Chart 10a)

So what about 2007?

What actually happened thereafter…

It did not add up… the market should

have turned South or a new cycle was -8bp to -21bp in weeks 32 -34
building (Chart 10b).

The Dow did, indeed, turn a week

afterwards on the 11th October. The Chart 10a
initial impulse decline until January 2008
1887 Dec 3 1886 Apr 2, 1888 -20.1%
was 20.5% = a bear market. The lunar
1897 Sept 10, 1897 Mar 25, 1898 -24.6%
dates tied in with examples I gave that 1907 Jan 19, 1906 Nov 15, 1907 -48.5%
the decennial cycle has turned on major 1917 Nov 21, 1916 Dec 19, 1917 -40.1%
lunar dates – either New and Full moons 1927 Oct 3, 1927 Oct 22, 1927 -10.2%
or awkward angles. (Chart 10) 1937 Mar 10, 1937 Mar 31, 1938 -49.1%
1947 May 29, 1946 June 13, 1949 -24.0%
1957 Apr 6, 1956 Oct 22, 1957 -19.4%
Conclusion 1967 Feb 9, 1966 Oct 7, 1966 -25.4%
1977 Sep 21, 1976 Feb 28,1978 -26.9%
Seasonality plays a part in many 1987 Aug 25 1987 Dec4 1987 -35.1%
people’s analysis (including economists). 1997 Aug 6, 1997 Nov 12, 1997 -13.2%
The longer the history with reliable data, 2007 ?????? YTD (05/10/07) +12.52% post payrolls
the more powerful the argument is if it
Chart 10b
ties in with technical signals. There are
cycles within cycles so first look for the 1887 September 19 (-2.24%) and October 12 (-2.29%)
big picture then work smaller. Use the 1897 September 21 (-3.95%) and October 12 (-3.90%)
1907 March 14 (-8.29%). Major banking panic October 22
rule of multiple techniques.
1917 November 01 (-4.16%) and November 08 (-4.21%)
1927 October 8 (-3.65%)
Some suggested key dates to look 1937 October 18 (-7.75%) Panic/depression
out for: 1947 April 14 (-2.95%)
1957 October 21 (-2.48%) Credit crunch
March 11 2011 and April 4th 2011. 1967 No fall =>2.00% recorded
1977 July 27 (-2.17%)
These are likely to be a positive time for
1987 October 19 (-22.61%) Black Monday
stocks but increased periods of volatility.
1997 October 27 (-7.18%) Blue Monday

More important is mid-June 2011. This

is a major cycle period using 4.3years Chart 10: Dow Daily chart
sub cycle from long term 51 year cycle.
New Moon 11th Oct 2007 and a bearish key
day reversal
8th-26th Aug 2011 very bullish
rebound period for US long bonds
(calendar weeks 32-34).

Picks for future investment based on

long term cycles are nuclear energy and
African stock markets – South Africa,
Kenya and Egypt. Others to watch going
forward long term are food EDF (PF) and
Mitsubishi heavy industries (MITS).

“Millionaires don’t use astrology,

Billionaires do” J.P. Morgan
Fall was 20.5% from Oct 11, 2007- Jan 22, 2008 Full Moon

4 ISSUE 68 – DECEMBER 2010

 MARKET TECHNICIAN

With close-only construction the close

Point and figure charting price only for each chosen time period is
added to the chart. This method works
By Richard Miller well in certain markets, but it does not
take into account the intra-time-period
highs and lows. This can leave a major
data gap, especially when analysing
Over many years I have studied various charting techniques but, as time went volatile markets. This data gap can, of
by, I found that 3-box reversal Point and Figure charts (P&F charts) were the course, be overcome by using the
most suitable method to use for the analysis of movements in market prices. high/low data for each chosen time
The objective nature of P&F charts definitely gives a significant advantage period thereby taking into account the
over other forms of charting which, in general, rely heavily upon a subjective full range of price movement. In short,
one can say, for example, that a 1
input in order to achieve a clear result from interpretation. With a 3-box
minute high/low P&F chart is extremely
reversal P&F chart, 45 degree trend lines can be drawn objectively from the close to using tick-data.
first thrust away from the top or bottom, vertical and horizontal counts are
also taken objectively. Again, it is purely the product of an objective The main problem with using the
observation, whether a market is in upward or downward trend. high/low construction method is, to
state the obvious, that there are two
pieces of price data for each time period.
From my studies, the P&F chart purist process of storing all this data to This problem can, of course, be
concluded that the only data which can construct P&F charts, which will overcome by applying a trend biased
be used effectively for the construction inevitably date back over a period of system. The normal application of this
of P&F charts is tick-data [i.e., the time, would be hugely cumbersome trend bias works in the following
concept of data based on the old ticker and beyond the scope of all but the manner, namely: when there is an
tape, trade by trade, reporting]. larger computers. existing column of X's the high takes
There is no doubt, of course, that only priority; when there is an existing
tick-data can provide the basis for a In stepping away from tick-data, there column of O's the low takes priority. This
totally correct P&F chart construction. are two other methods which are used, maintains the correct support/resistance
However, in today's markets there is namely: close-only construction; and, levels on the P&F chart until an “outside
just too much tick-data and the high/low construction. price” period occurs where the high and

Chart 1 Chart 2

ISSUE 68 – DECEMBER 2010 5

MARKET TECHNICIAN
the low are both significant. The
STA Diploma problem in such a case is this: which
price should be recorded?
Results Some experts say that because it is
impossible to tell whether the high or
DISTINCTION low came first during the time period,
the basic rule should be maintained,
Pretesh Bhayani
namely: that in a column of X's the high
Bruno Vignoto takes priority; and, in a column of O's
the low takes priority. Thus, in short, the
Woo Fook Mun other prices should then be discarded.
This basic method works in most cases
because the market invariably “catches
PASS up” and consequently the full price
movement is recorded in the following
Joy Basford columns. In short, the market confirms
upwards or downwards movement.
Magnus F Becher
Dmytro Bondar However, on some occasions this is not
the case and the P&F chart is left with
Sammy Chammas potentially incorrect support/resistance
levels. Indeed, some well known experts
Kyriakos Charilaou
in this field have said that although this
Jack Davidson is a problem it should be ignored as it is
insurmountable.
Jamie Davis
Daljit Dhaliwal Well, after years of study and a sudden
moment of realisation, I believe that I
Yeo Kam Fai have found a workable solution to this
insurmountable problem and I wish to
Peter S Fox share my idea with colleagues. By
Goay Chia Chia sharing my idea, I am hoping to see
whether my idea is robust enough to
Philip Heurich withstand the scrutiny of others who are
also users of P&F charts. For simplicity, I
Leona Gomez-Lopez
have called my idea the "RM Dot".
Peng Kong Mah
The "RM Dot"
James Maitland
The clear major advantage of P&F charts
James Kenneth Seymour
is the ability to remove “noise” from the
market and give clear, unambiguous
Andrew Stone
indications of support/resistance and
Amresh Subramaniam entry/exit points. Because of these
significant advantages of P&F analysis
Eu-Gene Toh
over and above other forms of analysis,
it is imperative that nothing is added to
Emily Chu-Chun Tseng
the P&F chart which would detract from
Samuel Utere these advantages or add in “noise” that
has been so successfully removed.
Luke John Warren
Now referring to the given example
Low Ley Yee
charts [see chart Nos. 1 and 2]: as P&F
chart users will clearly see, Day 5 causes
the problem [i.e., an “outside price”
Date of next STA period – the problem which has in the
past been described as insurmountable].
Diploma Exam This is because in standard P&F charting
there is no record of the fact that the
Wednesday 13 April 2011 price reached 90 and rallied to 125. The
reader of the chart could therefore make
6 ISSUE 68 – DECEMBER 2010
the mistake of assuming that there is
support at 95. Thus, when the price
reaches 90 on Day 7, this could be a P&F
double bottom sell signal.
However, with the simple addition of the
"RM Dot", which shows 2 "Dots" in the
2nd column, we have a record of the
price reaching 90 and, thus, the P&F
double bottom sell signal could be
ignored until confirmation at, say, 85.
The great advantage, short of recording
full price movements, is that the addition
of "RM Dots" play no other part in the
P&F analysis; save the simple record that
the price, e.g., in my given example,
dropped to 90. The addition of the "RM
Dot" should, of course, only be made if
there is a blank box in the opposite
direction. If there is an "X" or "O" in
these boxes, then support/ resistance
has already been recorded and the prices
have no impact on support/resistance.
I trust that this brief introduction to the
"RM Dot", which I believe provides the
missing factor in the great value of P&F
analysis, is sufficient for you to
understand why I am enthusiastic about
its value and why I am keen to share the
idea with colleagues. I would welcome
all comments and further discussion.
Please feel free to email me on
Richard@rmmarketpredictions.com.
Even better, it would be great to see
some discussion played out in the
columns of this Journal.
The STA
Diploma Course
The STA Diploma Course will
commence in the New Year. The
course runs for one evening a
week over an 11 week period,
commencing 12 January 2011. The
course also includes an Exam
Preparation Day. The cost of the
January 2011 course is £2,695. The
course fee includes membership of
the STA for one year, the course
itself, the Exam Preparation Day
and Exam.
For further information, please
contact Katie Abberton on
info@sta-uk.org

Acute monthly reversals
(AMRs)
By Joaquin Monfort
Staying with the trend is the oft-stated goal of many an investment strategy
and this article proposes a long-term strategy technique applicable across
most markets which will aid investors in achieving precisely that. The results
below show a solid track record back-tested over the last eight to 30 years,
with consistent returns (see results below).
It has been noted that major trend
changes often exhibit an early
characteristic which distinguishes them
from mere corrections of the prevailing
trend. This is not true all the time but
many times it is. This characteristic is
that major trend reversals tend to occur
with an initial ‘explosive’ change in price.
This is the initial lift-off stage.
Corrections can have this characteristic
too but it is more often the case that it
accompanies stronger longer term
cyclical market moves.
Expressed in another way, it is the angle
of ascent or descent compared to the
angle of the established trend which
helps differentiate the two types of
market activity. In a reversal, the angle
tends to be sharper in the direction of
the new trend than in the direction of
the dying trend. This is illustrated in the
diagram below:
The diagram above represents idealised
price activity during the tail-end of a
bear market. The price has been falling
but then bottoms out and rises again in
a countertrend rally. The major change
in trend is signalled by the rapid sudden
rise after the low. The ‘y’ and ‘z’ degrees
represent the angles of ascent and
descent and the odds favour the
occurrence of a reversal when y is
higher than z over the same period of
time. This can be represented
mathematically as:
Reversal = y degrees > z degrees (over
same time period).
Corrections tend to exhibit the opposite,
which means the angle of the main
trend tends to remain the more acute as
shown graphically below:
In this case the mode of market
behaviour could be represented
mathematically as
Correction = y degrees < z degrees
(over same time period).
In a way this makes perfect sense given
the initial drive required to change an
established trend. I found that where
this initial thrust was absent the odds
favoured the anticipation of merely a
corrective phase before resumption of
the existing trend.
The AMR works best on a longer term
MARKET TECHNICIAN
monthly timescale. Looking at new highs
or lows and the bars on either side, it is
possible to make judgement about the
strength of a correction or reversal and
which category the market activity
might fall into.
Whilst it could be possible to measure
angles in real time and compare them,
this approach would be complicated to
develop – although it provides an
exciting area for further research.
There is, however, a much simpler way
which avoids complex trigonometry and
yet encapsulates the core principle of
the idea of a sudden explosive change in
direction.
By simplifying the application of the
principle it can be adopted quite easily
as a strategy technique. Using the
height of price bars as a guide and using
monthly bars it is possible to measure
the rate of ascent and descent of a move
quickly and easily. At market turns,
where the price bar in the opposite
direction to the established trend is
stronger and higher then the preceding
bar it signals that the ascent is an AMR.
Where the bar is weaker it signals a
correction.
The charts below show how the principle
is applied in practice. Fig 1a represents
the initial green bar. The next
requirement is for another bar which
makes a new low/high, and a third bar
which fails to make a new high or low
and actually breaks down to below or
above the low/high of the first bar. This
signals a reversal. Figs 1a, b and c show
the progression of the bearish version of
the setup. The trigger for the analysis
technique’s signal occurs at point ‘a’ on
figure 1c.
Fig 1a Fig 1c
Fig 1b
ISSUE 68 – DECEMBER 2010 7
MARKET TECHNICIAN

The bullish version is the inverse of the

above setup and is shown below: Chart 1: GBP/USD

Fig 2a Fig 2c

Fig 2b

The bullish buy signal would be

triggered at the high of candle 1: point b
on the diagram. A correction is
anticipated where the market fails to
break above either points ‘a’ or ‘b’. Chart 2: Real examples of AMRs

Variations
Apart from the classic set-ups described
above, I have included a variation.
Obviously the main principle is that the
market rebounds in a more acute move
to that which it preceded and so I have
widened the definition to include
monthly key reversals too. A monthly
key reversal is a bar which posts a new
high or low and then during the same
bar reverses posting a new low or high
respectively. Chart 1 shows a bearish
key reversal from the chart of the
GBP/USD.

The signal for the key reversal variant

works a little differently from that of the
classic 3-bar setup. Given that the usual
signal point has already been surpassed
by the 2nd key reversal bar, the signal
is given at the low/high of the key
reversal bar and is triggered when the
3rd bar passes below or above that
point.
Chart 2 is an illustration of some real
examples of AMRs using EUR/USD.
Trading the signals
The trading system derived from this
analysis technique is illustrated above
and derives its signals from the set-ups
themselves. This is because the
triggering of stops means de facto that
the reverse signal has been given and a
new order in the opposite direction is
triggered at the same time, thus the
trader is kept in the market for most of
the time. The monthly time-scale
reduces the number of whipsaws.
Were trading the signals in the above
chart of the EUR/USD, we would start by
placing a buy trigger order at the May
‘07 candle highs and our initial stop loss
at the June ‘07 candlestick lows. July
would have triggered our buy order
since it broke the May highs. August set
up another buy order with a lower low
and September’s long marabuzo candle
would have triggered another buy order
at the July highs. We would now place
stops for both orders at the August lows.
At the end of October we would move
our stop up to the September lows in
the unlikely event that the market
turned around and came back down
rapidly triggering a short. November’s
shooting star produces a more likely
reversal opportunity and we would
move our stops and short trigger up
once again to the October lows but,
once again, the market remains bullish
and keeps rising. The next major
opportunity to go short occurs in March
‘08 but although there is a move down
the market fails to take out the February
lows so our long trades are still running.
Eventually in July ‘08 there is an acute
enough reversal to trigger the stops on
both our longs and open a short order.
After the devastating bear of 2008 the
market reverses in ‘09 but there is no
AMR to close out our shorts and open
any longs. Eventually in November ‘09
there is another acute decline which
opens a second short order so we are
short 2 contracts. June’s hammer
created another AMR set up which would

8 ISSUE 68 – DECEMBER 2010

 MARKET TECHNICIAN

require a breach of May’s highs of

1.3342 – a considerable reversal. Results:

July 2010 EUR/USD USD/JPY GBP/USD USD/CHF

As can be seen from the example above,
this trading system is a simple low In US Dollars ($)
maintenance turn-key style strategy Gross Profit 58,691 281,570.00 528, 143.00 276,263.03
which is also quite good at keeping a
Gross Loss 10,711 79,069.00 156,491.50 99,933.35
trader in the trend. All that is required
to operate the system is to check the Net Profit 47,980 202,501.00 371,651.50 176,329.68
monthly charts at the end of each month Total no of trades 8 54 61 51
and move the stop-and-reverse orders Profitable trades 4 24 27 25
to the high or low of the last candle. Unprofitable trades 4 30 34 25
What is more, back-tested for major
Avg winning trade 14,672.75 11,732.10 19,560.85 11,050.53
currency pairs it has proven profitable –
particularly for the dollar pairs. Avg losing trade 2,677.75 2,635.65 4,602.69 3,843.89
largest winning trade 21,477 58,332.60 83,210.00 59,031.09
Strategy notes largest losing trade 3,928 5,569.88 16,000.00 12,534.88

The signal created by the AMR can
either be used in conjunction with
other indicators or as a stand alone
investment strategy. The signal works
best in volatile markets so it could be
optimised using Average True Range to
avoid losing signals in sideways
markets.
If being used as a stand alone
investment strategy, the following
additional rules apply:
1) If a key reversal occurs, go back a
month before the first month to find
out the direction of the trend. If up
then the key reversal is bearish, if
down then bullish.
2) Allow for pyramiding: if multiple
signals occur in the same direction,
which is a feature of this strategy,
allow pyramiding. When a signal in
the opposite direction is triggered
then close all the trades in the
pyramid. Use the most recent trade
entry point for stop placement and
remember to make the stop/buy to
cover orders for all the contracts in
the pyramid!
Results
The table shows the results for various
periods up until July 2010. The start
dates were between 8 and 35 years
back, depending on the security in
question. The euro, for example, it is
eight years because it has a shorter
history compared to the others. The
results included a 1% commission cost
and 3% slippage costs.
Capital Requirements
Although trade size was set at 100,000
Open position P/L 48,920
Trading Period 8 yrs
3 months, 1 day 3mon, 29 days
Tradesize 100,000
(In units of currency)
currency units, given that margin is
quite generous in the foreign exchange
market, the capital requirement varied
depending on the maximum drawdown
for the particular security. At the time of
writing (in Oct 2010) these maximum
draw-downs stood at $15,433.97 for the
USD/JPY, $10,551.00 for EUR/USD,
$48,430 for the GBP/USD and
$28,616.80 for the USD/CHF.
Risk/Reward
There was no strict constant static
risk/reward because the size of the
initiating candlestick could vary. Given
the moving stop beyond the first month,
the risk/reward varied after that too.
The results showed however that on
average the rewards far exceeded the
risks. But the actual probability success
rate hovered around the 50% or just
below and it was the greater reward that
made the strategy profitable rather than
a higher probability success rate. This
lends weight to the principle
underpinning the strategy that the AMR
is good at determining changes in trend
at an early stage. It is also highlights the
importance of overlaying any trading
system with a disciplined money
management approach i.e. letting
profits run and cutting losses.
‘Carry’ Trade Considerations
Interest accrued or deducted because of
interest rate differentials were also not
included or calculated although interest
0 0 2,189.23
35yrs 35yrs 35yrs
3mon, 29 days 3mon,29 days
100,000 100,000 100,000
for periods out of the market was set at
2% in the broker account. Brokers do
vary quite a lot however on what they
will pay you. Calculating carry trade
profit or loss would be a necessary
exercise to any serious application of the
strategy given the long periods in the
market.
Comparison with 5%
interest/annum
Taking the minimum capital
requirements above from the maximum
draw-down figures we can also assess
what the money would have earned had
it been placed in a savings account to
make a comparison. Below are the
results for an annual 5% return.
EUR/USD = $15,588.53
USD/JPY = $85,134.02
GBP/USD = $267,140.60
USD/CHF = $157,850.70
These show that, apart from the
EUR/USD pair which far outperformed a
regular savings account, the other pairs
spread over 35 years only beat the 5%
savings account by quite small amounts,
particularly in the case of GBP/USD – but
crucially they did outperform the savings
account. This is particularly attractive in a
low interest rate environment when it is
increasingly hard to find assets yielding a
5% return.
Joaquin Monfort is an analyst for the
internet Forex broker
www.Forex4you.com

ISSUE 68 – DECEMBER 2010 9

MARKET TECHNICIAN
DJIA peaks, seasonality
and market outcomes
By David McMinn
The peak at the beginning of a bear market can be a key indicator for predicting
US market outcomes. This paper considers two key factors – the intervals between
the peaks and ensuing panics, as well as the seasonal timing of these events.
Table 1 DJIA peak pairs and market outcomes
High High Comments
Sep 04, 1895* Sep 05, 1899 AODPP rises and falls took place between Dec 18 and
Dec 23. The final lows were recorded on Aug 08, 1896
and Sep 24, 1900.
Jun 12, 1901 May 29, 1946 Two major one day falls six days apart occurred in early
September after each of the respective highs in June and
May. AODPP rises were recorded on Sep 16, 1901 and
Oct 15, 1946. The protracted bear markets persisted
until Nov 1903 and Jun 1949. Black Thursday occurred
on May 9, 1901 prior to the 1901 top, but this dramatic
spring event had no counterpart in 1946.
Jan 19, 1906 Jan 14, 2000 AODPP rises and falls occurred in the 7 weeks to May 4.
The parallels continued into the subsequent year, with
stock market tremors on Mar 14, 1907 (-8.29%) & Mar
12, 2001 (-4.10%) and major autumn panics in 1907
and 2001. Bear market lows took place on Nov 15, 1907
and Sep 21, 2001.
Nov 19, 1909 Nov 21, 1916 AODPP falls were experienced a few months later on Feb
07, 1910 and Feb 01, 1917. The final lows were reached
on Sep 25, 1911 and Nov 19, 1917.
Sep 30, 1912 Oct 09, 2007 Panics happened on Jan 20, 1913 and Jan 21, 2008. Both
bear markets were drawn-out and severe. In 1914, the
New York stock market was closed after the outbreak of
WWI, while the world financial system neared complete
collapse during Black October in 2008.
Nov 03, 1919 Nov 12, 1938 The AODPP falls were experienced on May 21, 1920 and
Apr 08, 1939. The parallels extended in the subsequent
year with major one day rises and falls taking place in
the two months to July 15.
Sep 03, 1929 Aug 25, 1987 The biggest stock market crashes in US history took
place some 55 days after these peaks. The dramatic
slumps were brief with post crash lows on Nov 13, 1929
and Dec 04, 1987.
Apr 06, 1956 Apr 27, 1981 There were no notable AODPP falls over -2.25% after
these peaks. Even so, similarities were experienced in
the subsequent year, with key falls on Oct 21, 1957 and
Oct 25, 1982. Final lows were recorded on Oct 22, 1957
and Aug 12, 1982.
Jan 05, 1960 Jan 10, 1973 The AODPP falls occurred on Sep 19, 1960 and Nov 26,
1973. Otherwise there were no resemblances between
the 1960 correction and the severe 1973-74 bear market.
Jul 16, 1990 Jul 17, 1998 AODPP falls were experienced on Aug 06, 1990 and Aug
31 1998 respectively. Both markets declined by around
-20% and the financial distress was short-lived with
lows on Oct 11, 1990 and Aug 31, 1998.
* High based on the 12 Stock Average index.
10 ISSUE 68 – DECEMBER 2010
If major peaks form around the same
month, they will often be followed by
similar peak-panic intervals and market
outcomes, a trend that has held up very
well since 1895. Numerous examples
may be given of this phenomenon in US
financial history. The peaks in the Dow
Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) were
considered in relation to the ensuing
biggest one day rises and falls. The
annual one day post peak (AODPP) rise
and AODPP fall were taken as the
biggest one day percentage DJIA rise or
fall in the year after a major market top.
Seasonality was also appraised for DJIA
peaks and subsequent panics and
rallies. The timing of major DJIA peaks
by month and day (year ignored) is
hypothesised to have relevance on how
subsequent market trends develop.
On a technical note, the DJIA data are
based on closing values throughout
this article. Peaks at the beginning of a
bear market were sourced from
fiendbear.com for the 100 years to
1996, with additional DJIA peaks in
1998, 2000 and 2007 being inserted by
the author.
Peak – AODPP Fall Intervals
If DJIA highs occurred near the same
month and day, then close parallels can
arise on how the ensuing market
unfolded. The September 3, 1929 and
August 25, 1987 record peaks provided
the best example, as both were followed
55 days later by the most spectacular
October panics in US history. The violent
market decline lasted only a few
months, with the DJIA hitting bottom on
November 13, 1929 and December 4,
1987.
An overall summary of peak – AODPP
fall intervals for the DJIA is given in
Table 1 and Appendix 1. Some of the
parallels were quite remarkable as, for
example, the highs in 1895 – 1899,
1901 – 1946, 1906 – 2000 and 1929 –
1987.
Anomalies. DJIA peaks occurring at the
same time of the year will not always be
followed by comparable market
outcomes. Trends after the secular high
of September 3, 1929 aligned with those
experienced after August 25, 1987.
Comparisons could not be made with
outcomes after the September 4, 1895
or September 5, 1899 tops. Other peak
DJIA pairs did not produce parallelism:
 MARKET TECHNICIAN

September 12, 1939 and September

Table 2 DJIA highs, seasonality and AODPP falls
21, 1976; January 5, 1960 and January
10, 1973; December 13, 1961 and DJIA Highs DJIA AODPP Rises and Falls (a) No
December 3, 1968; January 10, 1973
and January 14, 2000. Feb 01 – Sep 10 Aug 05 – Feb 05 23

Anomalies - -
The obvious question arises as to
whether the approach was valid or due Sep 11 – Jan 31 Jan 20 – Aug 05 22
to coincidence. Statistical testing would
Anomalies Nov 13, 1919, Sep 19, 1960, 4
be very difficult to undertake to help
Nov 26, 1973 & Dec 22, 1916
clarify this point. However, it seems
improbable that the numerous examples (a) AODPP rises and falls => 2.00%
in Table 1 would take place collectively
by chance. When the peak-panic
parallels do arise, they can be very Table 3
precise (eg: 1895 – 1899, 1901 – 1946,
1912 – 2007, 1929 – 1987 and so DJIA Highs AODPP Falls No AODPP Rises No
forth). Importantly, some years cannot Feb 01 – Sep 03 Aug 01 – Oct 31 9 Sep 05 – Oct 31 7
be appraised because they contained no
significant AODPP falls over about - Anomalies Feb 01, 1982 1 Jan 28, 1982 Jan 17, 1991 2
2.25% (eg: after the 1956, 1968, 1976 Sep 04 – Sep 10 Dec 18 – 23 2 Dec 18-23 2
and 1981 peaks).
Anomalies - - - -
The April 23, 2010 DJIA high marked
the beginning of yet another market
collapse and aligned most closely with Table 4
peaks on April 6, 1956 and April 27, DJIA Peak 1st OD Fall % 2nd OD Fall % OD Rise %
1981. No one day falls over -2.25%
were experienced in the year after the Jun 12, 1901 Sep 07, 1901 -4.43 Sep 13, 1901 -4.27 Sep 16, 1901 +4.10
tops in 1956 or 1981. Even so in the May 29, 1946 Sep 03, 1946 -5.56 Sep 09, 1946 -4.41 Oct 15, 1946 +3.58
month to June 5, 2010, there were
three days that registered falls May 21, 2001 * Sep 11, 2001 na Sep 17, 2001 -7.13 Sep 24, 2001 +4.47
between -3.10% and -3.60%. (This May 02, 2008 * Oct 09, 2008 -7.33 Oct 15, 2008 -7.87 Oct 13, 2008 +11.08
included the May 6 Flash Crash, when
the intra-day low plunged by over - (a) These intra bear market peaks were the high for the calendar year.
9.00%.) Given such inconsistencies, Abbreviation: OD – One Day.
the 2010 market decline may not follow
other historic DJIA bear markets that
commenced in April. Since 1910, major September-October NB: The annual one day fall is taken as
annual one day falls (=> -3.60%) were the biggest % one day fall in the year
preceded by a peak in one of three commencing March 1.
Seasonality
ways:
For all highs between February 1 and Curiously, four autumn panics occurred
September 10, the 23 ensuing AODPP • A record high happened between after market highs between May 1 and
rises and falls (=> 2.00%) happened in September 5 and October 31 and was June 12. Each consisted of two major
the half year commencing August 5, followed by an AODPP fall within 10 one day percentage falls six days apart.
with NO EXCEPTIONS (see Appendix 2). days. The associated downturn was a The autumn panic of 1901 was triggered
This would be very unlikely to arise by brief correction (1927, 1955, 1986 by the assassination of President
chance. For the DJIA peaks between and 1989). McKinley and has been included,
September 11 and January 31, most • If the record high occurred from July together with the 1946, 2001 and 2008
ensuing AODPP rises and falls occurred 15 to September 3, a major AODPP events. (Table 4)
in the 6.5 months commencing January fall took place some months later and
20. (Table 2) the market decline was usually
Conclusions
severe but only lasted a few months
Remarkably, DJIA peaks between (1929, 1987, 1997 and 1998). There was a notable propensity for
February 1 and September 3 nearly • If the market peak for the calendar peak-panic intervals to be similar for
always had ensuing AODPP falls (=> - year happened between February 24 those bear markets beginning at the
2.00%) in the three months to October and May 31 and was not a record same time of the year. As a trend it was
31. The corresponding AODPP rises (=> high, then the ensuing autumn quite reliable – surprising given the
+2.00%) happened in September and AODPP fall was within a protracted simplicity of the approach. When the
October, with two anomalies in January. bear market (1931, 1937, 1946, peak-panic parallels do arise, they can
(Table 3) 2001 and 2008).

ISSUE 68 – DECEMBER 2010 11

MARKET TECHNICIAN

be very precise. Unfortunately, the Appendix 1 DJIA peak – AODPP fall intervals
peak-AODPP rise intervals had a poor
1895 and 1899 Peaks
track record and only worked well on a
few occasions (eg: 1895-1899 and DJIA Peak AODPP Fall % AODPP Rise % BM Low

1929-1987-1997). Thus it would be Sep 04, 1895 (a) Dec 20, 1895 -6.61 Dec 23, 1895 +4.37 Aug 08, 1896
spurious to use them as an indicator of Sep 05, 1899 Dec 18, 1899 -8.72 Dec 19, 1899 +4.72 Sep 24, 1900

future AODPP rises. 1901 and 1946 Peaks

DJIA Peak AODPP Fall % OD Fall % AODPP Rise %
Seasonality in the timing of major DJIA Jun 12, 1901 Sep 07, 1901 -4.43 Sep 13, 1901 -4.27 Sep 16, 1901 +4.10
tops and AODPP rises and falls was the May 29, 1946 Sep 03, 1946 -5.56 Sep 09, 1946 -4.41 Oct 15, 1946 +3.58
other notable finding. The peaks from
1906 and 2000 Peaks
February 1 to September 3 were often
followed by AODPP rises and falls in the DJIA Peak AODPP Fall % AODPP Rise % BM Low

three months to October 31. Peaks Jan 19, 1906 Apr 27, 1906 -2.76 May 04, 1906 +3.04 Nov 15, 1907
May 01, 1906 -2.73
taking place between September 11 and
Jan 14, 2000 Apr 14, 2000 -5.64 Mar 16, 2000 +4.98 Sep 21, 2001
January 31 usually had the ensuing
AODPP rise and falls in the 6.5 months OD Fall % OD Rise % Panic

commencing January 20. Jan 19, 1906 Mar 15, 1907 -8.72 Mar 16, 1907 +6.69 Oct 22, 1907
Jan 14, 2000 Mar 22, 2001 -4.08 Mar 26, 2001 +3.28 Sep 11, 2001

From the findings, major DJIA peaks 1909 and 1916 Peaks
can be a useful indicator, when the DJIA Peak AODPP Fall % AODPP Rise %
subsequent AODPP falls were most likely Nov 19, 1909 Feb 07, 1910 -3.44 Jun 07, 1910 +2.99
to occur. The month and day when a Jul 28, 1910 +3.01
major peak formed at the beginning of a Nov 21, 1916 Feb 01, 1917 -7.24 Dec 22, 1916 +5.49
bear market are crucial for comparisons
1912 and 2007 Peaks
to be made to historic trends. However,
DJIA Peak AODPP Fall % AODPP Rise %
the relationship was not 100% accurate,
Sep 30, 1912 Jan 20, 1913 -4.90 Jun 12, 1913 +3.01
with historical anomalies being evident.
Oct 09, 2007 Jan 21, 2008 (b) Mar 11, 2008 (c) +3.55
Mar 17, 2008 (c) +3.41
McMinn (2006, 2009) established strong
links between Moon-Sun cycles and 1919 and 1938 PEAKS
market cycles. Given the importance of DJIA Peak AODPP Fall % AODPP Rise % OD Fall % OD Rise %
DJIA peak seasonality, the position of Nov 03 May 19 -4.22 Nov 13 +3.30 Jun 20 -3.49 Jul 06 +3.18
the Sun on the ecliptical circle could be 1919 1920 1919 1921 1921
hypothesised to be highly relevant in the Nov 12 Apr 08 -3.86 Sep 05 +7.26 May 14 -6.76 Jun 12 +4.74
timing of US stock market peaks and 1938 1939 1939 1940 1940
May 21 -6.78
panics. (The Sun is at the same position
1940
on the ecliptical circle at the same time
of the solar year.) Alas, the Moon-Sun 1929, 1987 and 1997 Peaks
mathematics involved in market timing DJIA Peak AODPP Fall % AODPP Rise % PC Low
is extremely complex and impossible to Sep 03, 1929 Oct 28, 1929 -12.83 Oct 30, 1929 +12.24 Nov 13,1929
unravel based on current knowledge. Aug 25, 1987 Oct 19, 1987 -22.61 Oct 21, 1987 +10.17 Dec 04, 1987
Aug 06, 1997 Oct 27, 1997 -7.18 Oct 28, 1997 +4.71 Nov 12, 1997

References 1956 and 1981 Peaks

DJIA Peak OD Fall % OD Rise % BM Low
fiendbear.com. DJIA Bear Markets of the
Apr 06, 1956 Oct 21, 1957 -2.48 Oct 23, 1957 +4.12 Oct 22, 1957
Past 100 Years.
Apr 27, 1981 Oct 25, 1982 -3.52 Aug 17, 1982 +4.90 Aug 22, 1982
www.fiendbear.com/bearenc1.htm
1990 and 1998 Peaks
McMinn, David. Market Timing By The DJIA Peak AODPP Fall % AODPP Rise % PC Low
Moon & The Sun. Twin Palms Publishing. Jul 16, 1990 Aug 06, 1990 -3.32 Jan 17, 1991 +4.57 Oct 11, 1990
2006. Jul 18, 1998 Aug 31, 1998 -6.63 Sep 08, 1998 +4.98 Sep 10, 1998

McMinn, David. Market Timing Moon (a) Peak based on the 12 Stock Average index.
Sun Research 2006-2009. Privately (b) Worldwide stock market panics occurred on January 21, 2008. However, the US market was
Published. 2009. closed on the day due to Martin Luther King Jnr holiday. Even so, this date was taken as the
DJIA AODPP fall for 2007.

(c) The two biggest percentage one day rises in the 11 months after the Oct 09, 2007 high.

Abbreviations: BM Low – Bear Market Low; PC Low – Post Crash Low.

AODPP – annual one day; OD – one day.

Source: McMinn, 2009.

12 ISSUE 68 – DECEMBER 2010

 MARKET TECHNICIAN

Appendix 2 DJIA peaks and ensuring AODPP rises and falls (a)
Bytes and
DJIA High DJIA AODPP Fall % Fall DJIA AODPP Rise % Rise

Feb 09, 1966 Oct 03, 1966 -2.10 Oct 12, 1966 +2.58 Pieces
Mar 10, 1937 Oct 18, 1937 -7.75 Oct 20, 1937 +6.07
Maximize your profits with
Apr 06, 1956 (b) - (b) - Omnitrader 2011

Apr 27, 1981 (c) Aug 24, 1981 -2.23 Jan 28, 1982 +2.56 Nirvana Systems Omnitrader now
comes with a new dynamic profits
Feb 01, 1982 -2.22
module that maximises the potential
May 29, 1946 Sep 03, 1946 -5.56 Oct 15, 1946 +3.58 profit in every trade by allowing
optimisation of systems, filters,
Jun 12, 1901 Sep 07, 1901 -4.43 Sep 16, 1901 +4.10
confirmers and stop exits. This uses
Jul 16, 1990 Aug 06, 1990 -3.32 Jan 17, 1991 +4.57 the adaptive reasoning module to
derive the optimal parameters via
Jul 17, 1998 Aug 31, 1998 -6.63 Sep 08, 1998 +4.98
a dynamic optimisation that can
Aug 25, 1987 Oct 19, 1987 -22.61 Oct 21, 1987 +10.17 constantly adapt to new market
conditions. For details, see:
Sep 03, 1929 Oct 28, 1929 -12.83 Oct 30, 1929 +12.34 http://www.omnitrader.com/up
Sep 04, 1895 (d) Dec 20, 1895 -6.61 Dec 23, 1895 +4.73 grade/OT2011.pdf

Sep 05, 1899 Dec 18, 1899 -8.72 Dec 19, 1899 +4.72 Trade with Precision
Sep 12, 1939 (c) May 14, 1940 -6.76 Jun 12, 1940 +6.73 Head trader Nick McDonald presents
May 21, 1940 -6.78 free training online to those who
open an account with the brokerage
Sep 21, 1976 (b) - (b) -
firm ICE Futures. He aims to give
Sep 30, 1912 Jan 20, 1913 -4.90 Jun 12, 1913 +3.01 people a real feel for trading the
markets. So, for the price of a trade,
Oct 09, 2007 (e) Jan 21, 2008 (f) Mar 11, 2008 +3.55
you get free training. For those with
Mar 17, 2008 +3.51 a large enough brokerage account,
Nov 03, 1919 May 21, 1920 -4.21 Nov 13, 1919 +3.30
two complimentary trading videos
are available via the following link.
Nov 12, 1938 Apr 08, 1939 -3.86 Jul 17, 1939 +3.41 http://www.tradewithprecision.
com/ice_market_outlook.
Nov 19, 1909 Feb 07, 1910 -3.44 Jul 28, 1910 +3.01

Nov 21, 1916 Feb 01, 1917 -7.24 Dec 22, 1916 +5.49 Tick-Tock

Dec 03, 1968 (b) - (b) - ProRealTime is an excellent online

charting and technical analysis
Dec 13, 1961 May 28, 1962 -5.71 May 29, 1962 +4.68
program that allows system testing
Jan 05, 1960 Sep 19, 1960 -2.56 (b) - using real-time data down to tick
level for stocks, futures, indices and
Jan 11, 1973 Nov 26, 1973 -3.40 May 24, 1973 +3.27
currencies. The integrated data
Jan 14, 2000 Apr 14, 2000 -5.64 Mar 16, 2000 +4.98 handling makes this pack a pleasure
to use.
Jan 19, 1906 (c) Apr 27, 1906 -2.76 May 04, 1906 +3.04
www.prorealtime.com/
May 01, 1906 -2.73

Gannalyst Pro 5.0 is now free

(a) The ensuing AODPP rise and AODPP fall were taken as the biggest one day percentage
change in the year after the peak at the beginning of a DJIA bear market. It is not often that you get a
(b) No AODPP rise and/or AODPP fall over 2.00% took place in the year after the peak. $500 technical analysis program
(especially one that has a set of
(c) Two almost identical percentage AODPP falls occurred after the highs in 1906, 1939 and
Gann Tools) free of charge –
1981.
although donations are welcome.
(d) Based on the 12 Stock Average index. This is a firm favourite technical
(e) Two AODPP rises of about +3.50% were recorded in mid-March. They were the biggest one analysis package as its professionally
day rises in the 11 months after the Oct 9, 2007 peak. programmed. There is also free
(f) Major one day falls were recorded worldwide on January 21, 2008. However, the US stock training available with a Gann slant
market was closed due to the Martin Luther King Jr holiday. Even so, this date was taken as no doubt.
the DJIA AODPP fall for 2007. http://www.gannalyst.com/
Source: McMinn, 2009.

ISSUE 68 – DECEMBER 2010 13

NETWORKING
CHAIRMAN
Deborah Owen .....................................................................................................editor@irc100.com

VICE-CHAIRMAN
Axel Rudolph .........................................................................axel.rudolph@commerzbank.com

TREASURER
Simon Warren ....................................................................................................warrens@bupa.com

PROGRAMME ORGANISATION
Axel Rudolph .........................................................................axel.rudolph@commerzbank.com
Mark Tennyson-d'Eyncourt ...............................................................deynvest@hotmail.co.uk

LIBRARY
John Douce: .........................................................................................................jdmjd@tiscali.co.uk
Clive Lambert ..........................................................................................clive@futurestechs.co.uk

EDUCATION
Axel Rudolph .........................................................................axel.rudolph@commerzbank.com
Guido Riolo ............................................................................................guidoriolo@bloomberg.net

IFTA LIAISON
Robin Griffiths ................................................................robin.griffiths@cazenovecapital.com

MARKETING
Karen Jones.............................................................................karen.jones@commerzbank.com
Clive Lambert ..........................................................................................clive@futurestechs.co.uk
Adam Sorab ................................................................................................adam.sorab@cqsm.com

MEMBERSHIP
Simon Warren ....................................................................................................warrens@bupa.com

REGIONAL CHAPTERS
SCOTLAND: Alasdair McKinnon ............................................................AMcKinnon@sit.co.uk
IRELAND: Robert Reid ...................................................................robertreid64@gmail.com

COMPANY SECRETARY
Mark Tennyson-d’Eyncourt ...............................................................deynvest@hotmail.co.uk

STA JOURNAL
Editor, Deborah Owen......................................................................................editor@irc100.com

WEBSITE
David Watts .........................................................................................................DWattsUK@aol.com
Simon Warren ....................................................................................................warrens@bupa.com
Deborah Owen .....................................................................................................editor@irc100.com

Please keep the articles coming in – the success of the Journal

depends on its authors, and we would like to thank all those who
have supported us with their high standard of work. The aim is to
make the Journal a valuable showcase for members’ research – as
well as to inform and entertain readers.

The Society is not responsible for any material published in The Market
Technician and publication of any material or expression of opinions does not
necessarily imply that the Society agrees with them. The Society is not
authorised to conduct investment business and does not provide investment
advice or recommendations.

Articles are published without responsibility on the part of the Society, the editor
or authors for loss occasioned by any person acting or refraining from action as
a result of any view expressed therein.